READ OP! War in Ukraine: a distressed blender making too many margaritas at once

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mlmp08: Jul 11, 2004; Prepare for my priapic projectile's exalted penetration; Nap Ghost

SMO (Senior Military Official vice Defense Official today) drop. https://www.defense.gov/News/Transcripts/Transcript/Article/3095350/senior-military-official-holds-a-background-briefing/

tl;dr
-100-150 civilian deaths' in the past two weeks as a result of Russian strikes.
-Russian advances incremental/limited, if any in Northern Donbas
-Essentially, Russia stalled out or extremely slow/limited across multiple lines
-HIMARS continuing to affect supply, ammo, C2, but US doesn't want to comment on it specifically
-US is not tracking weapons once they reach Ukraine, but has no positive indication that they are being used outside of Ukraine
-No indication of Iranian UAVs in theater (this had been reported as a future possibility by National Security Advisor Sullivan)
-SMO will not hazard a guess on percentages of supply issues, says that it clearly affects the immediate troops at the front not getting a resupply as planned, but that Russia has a large national stock of supplies
-8 US-supplied HIMARS in operational use now, the other 4 US HIMARS have been delivered, but US cannot confirm if they are yet operational
-SMO will not say the word Excalibur, but indicates delivery last week of 155mm rounds with "decent precision."
-No indication China is assisting Russian war effort behind the scenes
-When asked if the US is giving targeting information for HIMARS, response is "We've provided information that they're using across the battlefield."

Opener, then just excerpts as I arbitrarily decide

SMO posted:

SENIOR MILITARY OFFICIAL: Hi, everybody, (inaudible). Again, good to be back with you. And I look forward to our conversation today, and hopefully some helpful conversation.

As mentioned the 142nd day of Russia's unprovoked large-scale invasion of Ukraine. We assess that Russian forces are limited to incremental, if any, gains around the northern Donbas, held off by Ukrainian defenses. Russian forces continue to deploy indiscrimate artillery bombardment, along with air missile strikes. I'll give you a just kind of around the battlefield of what we're seeing on the ground. Near Kharkiv, we assess that the Ukrainians are continuing to defeat Russian attempts to gain ground. In the vicinity of Izium, and Slovyansk, it�s generally the same.

So you know, pretty strong defenses from the Ukrainians, and the Russians have stated publicly that they want to move on Slovyansk, but still have not been able to do so. And then we certainly assess that they continue to employ artillery attacks around Seversk. You -- a number of you have reported on that over last week. We absolutely agree with that. And then down in the south in Mykolaiv and Kherson, nothing really to update you with on the ground, as both sides are continuing to defend or really, no real progress there.

On the maritime domain, I think a number of you have reported that we did see the Vinnytsia missile attack yesterday came from what we believe, or has been reported and we believe there's no reason to suggest otherwise-- was submarine-launched missiles from the Russians. What we know for a fact is that they hit and killed a number of civilians. And I think all told over the week, again, through your reporting, I think we're looking at between 100, 150, somewhere in there, civilian casualties, civilian deaths, this week in Ukraine as a result of Russian strikes.

In terms of HIMARS, I know there's continuing to be a lot of interest about how the HIMARS are performing. You know, needless to say, the Russians are really important in that information. I like to make them work for it, honestly, and I -- but to be quite honest, I'll let the battlefield videos and the Ukrainian reports speak for themselves. They are having an effect, and I think, again, you all have reported on that quite extensively.

And then we continue to train Ukrainians. We continue to provide aid, as you know, with our continued flow.

...

QUESTION: Hi. ... And then second, just a little bit more on the cruise missile strike. The Russians are claiming they hit a military facility, whereas other sort of Ukrainian reports are calling it a concert hall, et cetera. Can you provide any clarity on what it was that they hit, and whether or not there were any military facilities either in the area or whatever that they could have been targeting?

SENIOR MILITARY OFFICIAL: ...

And then in terms of the missile strike, I mean, I saw the same videos that you all saw. I didn't see anything there and -- you know, that looked anything close to military. That looked like an apartment building. So no, I have no indication that there was a military target anywhere near that. Over.

...

QUESTION: Can you describe for us any impact the use of HIMARS is having on the front lines? The HIMARS is being used against targets in the rear, but you want it to have an impact on the front lines, and has it had an impact yet?

SENIOR MILITARY OFFICIAL: I think, you know, Dave, that's a good question. I think there has been significant impact on what's going on on the front lines. If you think about the fact that the Ukrainians have been talking about a number of the targets they're hitting, you know, they're spending a lot of time striking targets like ammunition supplies, other logistical supplies, command-and-control. All those things have a direct impact on the ability to conduct operations on the front line. So I would say yes, although they're not shooting the HIMARS at the front lines, they're having a very, very significant effect on that.

QUESTION: But have you seen it have an effect? I mean, obviously in theory, that's the whole purpose. But have you seen it have an effect on the ability of the Russians to conduct front line operations?

SENIOR MILITARY OFFICIAL: Yeah, I -- that's a great question too. I don't know. And this will -- you know, I shouldn't speculate, right? That's not what I'm supposed to do. like you, I mean, we've all seen the Russians slow their movements and advances.

It's hard for me to believe that can't be somehow related to the loss of ammunition or the loss of somebody to tell them where to go. You know, I am told where to go a lot, and when someone doesn't do it, I tend to just sit at my desk. Honestly, I like that, but anyway.

...

Q: Sorry about that. The -- then -- can you expand a little bit on the -- what you said -- there were between 100 to 150 Ukrainian civilian deaths this week as a result of Russian strikes. So you're talking about more than just the strikes that were -- the missile strikes yesterday? You're talking about across -- I don't know if you can provide any more visibility on that, cause we don't normally hear from these backgrounders about Ukrainian civilian deaths, numbers. So I'm just -- how do you have numbers this week? Where were those -- most of those deaths? Were they mostly the submarine missile launches or anything more on that?

SENIOR MILITARY OFFICIAL: I -- yeah, so that certainly was the largest one I've seen, but all -- all my numbers are coming from the things that you all are writing. And that's -- that's over the last seven to 14 days, you know, since I was on here -- I don't know when it was -- I think last Friday. But yeah, all open-source.

And again, that range depends on the open source we're looking at. Somewhere between 100 and 150.

Q: So that's -- it's not just this week, that you're saying that the 100 to 150 is over the last one to two weeks, you would say then?

SENIOR MILITARY OFFICIAL: Yeah, that's correct.

...

Q: Hey, thanks for taking my question. I was wondering, is the U.S. -- does the U.S. plan on tracking weapons once in Ukraine or is the U.S. seeing any problems with the Ukrainians tracking their own weapons? And this has to do with the rumors there are of smuggling the weapons out of Ukraine.

SENIOR MILITARY OFFICIAL: Sure. We are not tracking weapons, Liz. And quite honestly, I mean, we feel pretty good that the Ukrainians are using the weapons that we've provided to them and have not seen any indications that those weapons have gone anywhere else other than to fight against the Russians.

...

Q: And just to follow up, do you -- National Security Advisor Sullivan earlier this week talked about intelligence that indicated that Iran was preparing to send hundreds of UAVs to Russia to use in the battle. Have you seen any indication that any of these UAVs are showing up, or soon will? Thank you.

SENIOR MILITARY OFFICIAL: I haven't seen any indication they are. I mean, it says a lot that the Russians are leaning on Iran to get weapons.

...

Q: Yeah, I wonder if you could put a fuller picture on the incremental gains you've spoken about? I mean, we've been hearing that for quite some time now. Is this kind of where we are now? Do the Russians just lack troops and supplies to do anything more to really have a -- you know, a full push into the Donetsk area? Is it the HIMARS that's leading to this, or are we kind of heading into a stalemate now? If you could just give us a sense of that.

SENIOR MILITARY OFFICIAL: Yeah, it's probably too early to make a determination like that. I think, you know, again, in terms of where you are on the battlefield, I would -- I have to believe that the HIMARS have had an effect. I don't know that that's -- you know, we didn't think that would be a silver bullet, certainly.

I think what you're seeing is -- you know, what you've got is kind of a matchup between bad morale and strong will. You know, we've seen -- you know, over the past several weeks, as you know, in the east -- the far east there, from Severodonetsk over, we saw the Russians take a pounding -- I mean, literally -- take a pounding to gain what really, when you look at the scale of things, it was not a very large amount of ground.

Now, any ground going back and forth is pretty small, but you've got -- you all have reported on it very well -- the morale of the Russians is really dismal. I think there was an article this morning talking about, you know, some of the ways that the Russians are trying to gain more soldiers.

And so if you couple that with the collective will of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, I think, you know, it's -- we've been saying this, right, for the past couple of weeks. You can't necessarily gauge something just based on the size of the army. There's like that phrase, right? It's not the size of the dog in the fight, but the -- isn't that what it is? Or the size of the fight in the dog�

Q: Right.

SENIOR MILITARY OFFICIAL: Anyways.

Q: Just give me a sense. Do you think the Russians now are able to make a strong push anywhere in the east or are they just slowly becoming exhausted? Or is it too early to say?

SENIOR MILITARY OFFICIAL: You know, I don't want to speak for the Russians here. That's a good question for them, though.

Q: Well from what you're seeing, any sense of that?

SENIOR MILITARY OFFICIAL: I certainly think morale affects an army's ability to conduct operations. We talked a little bit about that last week. And so, if they are having morale issues, I would think that would affect them.

And I'll tell you, it'd be hard not to have morale issues at times when, again, you know, you're supposed to get supplies but those supplies were destroyed 40 kilometers behind your lines. That's going to impact on them as well. So anyway, I'll hold there.

...

Q: OK, can I -- can you give us a sense of how the combination of U.S. and Ally-provided ISR, Pumas, Phoenix Ghosts, the Turkish Bayraktar drones, are helping queue the MLRS and other NATO systems?

SENIOR MILITARY OFFICIAL: Yes, I don't know how they're employing that. I did see an amazing report on CNN about a month and a half, two months ago where they were talking about the Ukrainians and their -- you know, they had a number of drone platoons, and they were using, you know, those little handheld tiny little quadcopters, so I've got to believe that they have figured out how to employ UAS technology pretty well.

Q: Well can I ask you one quickie, too? These Russian strikes in civilian facilities, like the submarine strike, are those potentially in retaliation for the use of HIMARS over there? It's their way of tit for tat, albeit cowardly?

SENIOR MILITARY OFFICIAL: Yes, I'd hate to speculate on that. I mean, yes. I'd hate to speculate on that.

...

Q: Hey, (inaudible). Thanks for doing this. A couple of questions. First of all, sir, you said that you are not tracking the weapons that we�re given to the Ukrainians, but then you also said that you've not seen any indications that those weapons have been used to do anything other than what they said they were going to do, but how -- can you just clarify that? How do you know? How do you know that latter if you're not tracking these weapons?

SENIOR MILITARY OFFICIAL: Well not tracking and not knowing where those weapons go I think are probably different things, and what I mean by that is, we're not tracking, you know, the Ukrainians' use of our particular weapons, but we also aren't seeing any indication anywhere else that these weapons have been provided to anybody other than the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

Q: Do you have any plans to put any of our people on the ground or closer to monitor this more closely as the battle continues?

SENIOR MILITARY OFFICIAL: Yes. I don't make any of those decisions, Laura. Those decisions are made across the river.

Q: And then my second question is can you give us a timeline on when those Excalibur munitions are going to arrive or have they arrived already?

SENIOR MILITARY OFFICIAL: Yes, I don't know that I could tell you that either. I know we provided some additional 155 millimeter rounds last week that have some decent precision, but I don't have anything else on that one.

...

Q: Yes, thanks very much for doing this. First, just want to confirm you said there are now 12 HIMARS actively being used by Ukraine in this fight, the 12 that the U.S. said they would give? And then I have one more.

SENIOR MILITARY OFFICIAL: Yes, Jeff, we -- I know that they're using the first eight. I don't know, you know, what they're doing with the last four. We've transferred those to the Ukrainians. I don't know if they're in Ukraine or not.

...

Q: If I could, there's also been some reporting that China's finding ways to help Russia behind the scenes. Is any of that playing out in terms of any sort of military aid or military assistance to the Russians at this point?

SENIOR MILITARY OFFICIAL: I don't have any knowledge on that or indications.

...

Q: Thanks. I have a couple of questions. First, can you give an assessment of what kind of intelligence that U.S. might be providing to Ukraine to targeting the HIMARS and the ammo dumps? And then I have some other -- another question.

SENIOR MILITARY OFFICIAL: Yes. We -- so as you know, we're helping the Ukrainians. I'm not going to provide particulars as to how that works, but we've been able to give them information and they've been able to use that information the way they choose to do so.

Q: Can you say whether you're providing information that they're using in the HIMAR strikes?

SENIOR MILITARY OFFICIAL: We've provided information that they're using across the battlefield.

# ? Jul 16, 2022 01:54

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# ? May 28, 2024 23:29

cinci zoo sniper: Mar 15, 2013

Cpt_Obvious posted:

Where would they take off from? Does Ukraine have any functional air fields? Have they cloned the ghost?

Plenty of functional airfields, they aren't paved with unobtainium.

# ? Jul 16, 2022 01:55

WAR CRIME GIGOLO: Oct 3, 2012; The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

Cpt_Obvious posted:

Where would they take off from? Does Ukraine have any functional air fields? Have they cloned the ghost?

Air fields aren't that hard to rebuild. It's keeping the planes on the ground safe. Ukraine has bulldozers and concrete trucks. The Russian Cruise missile are getting shot down in higher numbers daily and the ishkander failure rates are getting higher and higher aswell.

If they are becoming "familiarized" with US aircraft they will be flying them soon. Obviously Washington has Intel that's telling them Russia isn't going to be able to do anything against them for providing airframes and MBTs to the ukrainians. And by that I mean the probatable word. They aren't going to loving do it. They were never going to. They threaten to nuke everything and it's basically obvious it's a boogey man.

I mean let's proceed to say that us intelligence services has more data on Russian citizens than Russian intelligence services. With that being a thing, US intelligence services may be seeing the machine start to break down in ways we cannot.

If the system is breaking down the third collapse may be upon us. Which the United States would absolutely love to conflagrate. The killing blow as it were to Russia.

The US could be playing the conflict as a long game now. Ukraine will be very close to NATO requirements for weapons integration by the end of this. And a very seasoned military force on top of that. With those two things we have an absolute bulwark against a second Russia rising from the ashes of the fallen United Russia fascist government.

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

WAR CRIME GIGOLO fucked around with this message at 02:01 on Jul 16, 2022

# ? Jul 16, 2022 01:58

nurmie: Dec 8, 2019

Cpt_Obvious posted:

Where would they take off from? Does Ukraine have any functional air fields? Have they cloned the ghost?

cinci zoo sniper posted:

Plenty of functional airfields, they aren't paved with unobtainium.

also, quite a few military aircraft can take off from and land on public roads and motorways (F16 and Gripen, to name a couple - and probably a fair bit more)

# ? Jul 16, 2022 02:02

cinci zoo sniper: Mar 15, 2013

mlmp08 posted:

SMO (Senior Military Official vice Defense Official today) drop. https://www.defense.gov/News/Transcripts/Transcript/Article/3095350/senior-military-official-holds-a-background-briefing/

tl;dr
-100-150 civilian deaths' in the past two weeks as a result of Russian strikes.
-Russian advances incremental/limited, if any in Northern Donbas
-Essentially, Russia stalled out or extremely slow/limited across multiple lines
-HIMARS continuing to affect supply, ammo, C2, but US doesn't want to comment on it specifically
-US is not tracking weapons once they reach Ukraine, but has no positive indication that they are being used outside of Ukraine
-No indication of Iranian UAVs in theater (this had been reported as a future possibility by National Security Advisor Sullivan)
-SMO will not hazard a guess on percentages of supply issues, says that it clearly affects the immediate troops at the front not getting a resupply as planned, but that Russia has a large national stock of supplies
-8 US-supplied HIMARS in operational use now, the other 4 US HIMARS have been delivered, but US cannot confirm if they are yet operational
-SMO will not say the word Excalibur, but indicates delivery last week of 155mm rounds with "decent precision."
-No indication China is assisting Russian war effort behind the scenes
-When asked if the US is giving targeting information for HIMARS, response is "We've provided information that they're using across the battlefield."

Opener, then just excerpts as I arbitrarily decide

Thanks for keeping up with DoD posts!

So hmm, Ukraine has 12 units of M142 and M270 each it seems, with more Norwegian and British M270 deliveries in the public pipeline. How many of those in a normal American BCT?

Also lol @ "decent precision rounds".

# ? Jul 16, 2022 02:04

WAR CRIME GIGOLO: Oct 3, 2012; The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

quote:

SENIOR MILITARY OFFICIAL:
It's hard for me to believe that can't be somehow related to the loss of ammunition or the loss of somebody to tell them where to go. You know, I am told where to go a lot, and when someone doesn't do it, I tend to just sit at my desk. Honestly, I like that, but anyway.

I love this quote so much it's just a summarization of military life and it's great to see a "SENIOR MILITARY OFFICIAL" just state it like it is.

For Russia it's "when no one is telling me where to go I just drink vodka and try to acquire more vodka"

# ? Jul 16, 2022 02:05

KitConstantine: Jan 11, 2013

One-two punch of updates!

ISW's turn:
https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1548104406129729538?s=20&t=1CjJmAm0Toli8DneDLgS-A

quote:

Ukrainian HIMARS strikes have likely killed or wounded four Russian 106th Airborne Division deputy commanders. Russian news outlets reported the deaths of 106th Division�s deputy commanders Colonel Sergey Kuzminov, Colonel Andrey Vasiliev, and Colonel Maxim Kudrin, seemingly confirming Ukrainian claims that HIMARS strikes on Shaktarsk on July 9 killed or wounded a significant portion of the 106th's leadership.[2] Ukraine�s Center for Strategic Communications claimed on July 12 that one unspecified 106th Airborne Division deputy commander remains in critical condition.[3]

Key Takeaways

Russian forces are likely emerging from their operational pause, launching ground assaults north of Slovyansk, southeast of Siversk, around Bakhmut, and southwest of Donetsk City.

Russian forces continued to defend occupied positions in the Kharkiv City direction to prevent Ukrainian forces from advancing toward the Russian border in Kharkiv Oblast.

Russian forces continued their systematic attacks on civilian infrastructure targeting residential infrastructure, recreational facilities, and educational institutions in Mykolaiv City on July 15.

Chelyabinsk Oblast officials announced the completion of a volunteer battalion on July 15.

Russian occupation authorities continued to institute new societal control measures in occupied territories.

...
Supporting Effort #2�Southern Axis (Russian objective: Defend Kherson and Zaporizhia Oblasts against Ukrainian counterattacks)

Russian forces continued to shell Ukrainian positions along the contact line along the Southern Axis on July 15.[21] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces launched airstrikes in the areas of Velyke Artakove and Olhine, along the Kherson-Dnipropetrovsk and Kherson-Mykolaiv Oblast borders.[22] Ukrainian officials confirmed on July 15 that Ukrainian forces destroyed a Russian ammunition depot in Radensk (approximately 26 km southeast of Kherson City) and unspecified Russian positions in Nova Kakhova on July 14.[23] The Ukrainian Southern Operational Command reported that Russian Su-35s conducted three unsuccessful attacks on Ukrainian ground attack aircraft over Nova Kakhovka, deep in Russian-controlled territory, suggesting that Russian forces may lack sufficient ground-based air defenses in the area.[24]

Russian forces continued to launch missile strikes at Mykolaiv City on July 15. Mykolaiv Oblast Administration Head Vitaly Kim reported that Russian forces launched at least 10 missiles on two Ukrainian universities in Mykolaiv on July 15.[25] Russian milblogger Yuri Kotyenok claimed that the universities served as temporary housing for Ukrainian National Guard servicemen.[26] ISW cannot independently verify Kotyenok�s claims.

Mobilization and Force Generation Efforts (Russian objective: Expand combat power without conducting general mobilization)

Russian forces continue conducting accelerated training for combat volunteers. Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov claimed on July 15 that hundreds of volunteers are arriving daily in Grozny, Chechnya, for an accelerated training course before deploying to unspecified areas of Donbas.[27] Kadyrov claimed that volunteers receive unspecified state guarantees and train at the Russian Special Forces University east of Grozny in Gudermes, likely to entice prospective volunteers with promises of comfortable compensation and living conditions.[28] The governor of Russia�s Chelyabinsk Oblast announced on July 13 that the region is forming the �South Ural� and �South Uralets� volunteer battalions.[29] An 81-person detachment of Russian military volunteers of the 263-person South Uralets Battalion reportedly left Chelyabinsk on July 15 for an accelerated training course in Nizhny Novgorod, Russia.[30]

Activity in Russian-occupied Areas (Russian objective: consolidate administrative control of occupied areas; set conditions for potential annexation into the Russian Federation or some other future political arrangement of Moscow�s choosing)
...
Russian military correspondent Alexander Khodakovsky claimed on July 15 that Russian city and oblast governments acting as patrons for occupied areas of Ukraine are largely absent from reconstruction efforts despite public promises to help rebuild occupied territories, hindering reconstruction efforts.[35] Khodakovsky claims he formed his assessment after meeting with various deputy-level officials in unspecified Russian city and oblast governments.[36]

# ? Jul 16, 2022 02:18

Cpt_Obvious: Jun 18, 2007

cinci zoo sniper posted:

Plenty of functional airfields, they aren't paved with unobtainium.

...yeah but airplanes require an incredible amount of maintenance above and beyond just fuel, armaments, and housing. They are an incredibly delicate machines which doesn't really work for the guerilla warfare that Ukraine appears to be fighting.

# ? Jul 16, 2022 02:23

Deteriorata: Feb 6, 2005

Cpt_Obvious posted:

...yeah but airplanes require an incredible amount of maintenance above and beyond just fuel, armaments, and housing. They are an incredibly delicate machines which doesn't really work for the guerilla warfare that Ukraine appears to be fighting.

Where did you get the idea that Ukraine is fighting a guerilla war? That's preposterous. Their air force is flying regular sortees, with both fixed wing craft and helicopters. And they're doing a fine job of maintaining them.

# ? Jul 16, 2022 02:31

KitConstantine: Jan 11, 2013

Cpt_Obvious posted:

...yeah but airplanes require an incredible amount of maintenance above and beyond just fuel, armaments, and housing. They are an incredibly delicate machines which doesn't really work for the guerilla warfare that Ukraine appears to be fighting.

Maybe a bit during the stretch of the war around Kyiv, but I wouldn't say that's accurate in the east. Ukraine is operating with artillery formations, is pursuing defined offensives around Kherson/completed some around Kharkiv, and is continuing to fly air sorties, though with less frequency/intensity than Russia can (which is limited already)

What about their operations indicates that Ukraine's army is fighting guerrilla style? Partisans in Kherson and elsewhere aren't operating as part of Ukraine's army.

# ? Jul 16, 2022 02:32

Cpt_Obvious: Jun 18, 2007

Every piece of footage I've seen is basically one dude shooting a rocket at a tank and then bailing.

# ? Jul 16, 2022 02:34

KYOON GRIFFEY JR: Apr 12, 2010; Runner-up, TRP Sack Race 2021/22

Cpt_Obvious posted:

Every piece of footage I've seen is basically one dude shooting a rocket at a tank and then bailing.

How do you expect light infantry to fight mechanized forces?

# ? Jul 16, 2022 02:38

Cpt_Obvious: Jun 18, 2007

KYOON GRIFFEY JR posted:

How do you expect light infantry to fight mechanized forces?

......guerilla warfare?

# ? Jul 16, 2022 02:38

Deteriorata: Feb 6, 2005

Cpt_Obvious posted:

Every piece of footage I've seen is basically one dude shooting a rocket at a tank and then bailing.

You should probably pay more attention to what's actually going on, then.

# ? Jul 16, 2022 02:38

KitConstantine: Jan 11, 2013

Cpt_Obvious posted:

Every piece of footage I've seen is basically one dude shooting a rocket at a tank and then bailing.

There's been numerous videos posted here and elsewhere of Ukrainian soldiers using MRLS/artillery systems. You seem to be ill-informed. Perhaps review the sources you are using, they don't appear to be providing a comprehensive view of what's going on militarily.

# ? Jul 16, 2022 02:41

KYOON GRIFFEY JR: Apr 12, 2010; Runner-up, TRP Sack Race 2021/22

Cpt_Obvious posted:

......guerilla warfare?

I don�t think you understand what guerrilla warfare is

# ? Jul 16, 2022 02:41

Kchama: Jul 25, 2007

Cpt_Obvious posted:

......guerilla warfare?

Do you know what guerilla warfare is?

# ? Jul 16, 2022 02:41

Cpt_Obvious: Jun 18, 2007

....wait the Ukrainians are going toe to toe with Russian artillery!?

Holy poo poo. Never mind.

This war needs to end.

# ? Jul 16, 2022 02:44

KYOON GRIFFEY JR: Apr 12, 2010; Runner-up, TRP Sack Race 2021/22

There�s for sure some fun irregular stuff going on in occupied Kherson oblast with irregulars and asymmetric warfare against the occupying RU army and installed government but to characterize the entire war in that way is just so incredibly far from accurate.

# ? Jul 16, 2022 02:45

KitConstantine: Jan 11, 2013

Interesting audio from a Russian commander was obtained by Radio Svoboda. Thread has the more complete translation, but I pulled excerpts
https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1547651366402764809?s=20&t=VgHEaxzMhh3L8gdeiroxOg
https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1547651374464126976?s=20&t=VgHEaxzMhh3L8gdeiroxOg
https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1547651378742366209?s=20&t=VgHEaxzMhh3L8gdeiroxOg
https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1547651408417067013?s=20&t=VgHEaxzMhh3L8gdeiroxOg
IN summary
https://twitter.com/TimothyDSnyder/status/1548082306266435588?s=20&t=VgHEaxzMhh3L8gdeiroxOg

# ? Jul 16, 2022 02:47

Flavahbeast: Jul 21, 2001

Cpt_Obvious posted:

Every piece of footage I've seen is basically one dude shooting a rocket at a tank and then bailing.

most of the current footage from both sides seems to be artillery barrages filmed by drones and civilians filming when a nearby ammo dump gets hit by missiles, that's just what the war is right now

Cpt_Obvious posted:

This war needs to end.

# ? Jul 16, 2022 02:53

KitConstantine: Jan 11, 2013

Cpt_Obvious posted:

This war needs to end.

Username/post combo of the year right there

# ? Jul 16, 2022 02:56

Gucci Loafers: May 20, 2006; Ask yourself, do you really want to talk to pair of really nice gaudy shoes?

It seems if anything the war is going to result in a lasting stalemate?

# ? Jul 16, 2022 02:58

Deteriorata: Feb 6, 2005

Another dawn is breaking in Kyiv, and it's still Ukrainian. :unsmith:

# ? Jul 16, 2022 03:05

cinci zoo sniper: Mar 15, 2013

https://twitter.com/kyivindependent/status/1548074662680076289

Ukrainians claim $100m grant is for F-15 and F-16. Which should probably mean more planes than the math would suggest, as iirc some number of their pilots had received training on them in the US already.

Edit: lmao

https://twitter.com/kevinrothrock/status/1547970762438430720

# ? Jul 16, 2022 03:25

the popes toes: Oct 10, 2004

cinci zoo sniper posted:

Edit: lmao

https://twitter.com/kevinrothrock/status/1547970762438430720

Hey, it's a free country

# ? Jul 16, 2022 03:32

cinci zoo sniper: Mar 15, 2013

I�m feeling incredibly vindicated about maintaining that her entire act was bollocks.

Anyway,

https://twitter.com/osinttechnical/status/1548054522802556929

# ? Jul 16, 2022 03:38

Kraftwerk: Aug 13, 2011; i do not have 10,000 bircoins, please stop asking

WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:

Air fields aren't that hard to rebuild. It's keeping the planes on the ground safe. Ukraine has bulldozers and concrete trucks. The Russian Cruise missile are getting shot down in higher numbers daily and the ishkander failure rates are getting higher and higher aswell.

If they are becoming "familiarized" with US aircraft they will be flying them soon. Obviously Washington has Intel that's telling them Russia isn't going to be able to do anything against them for providing airframes and MBTs to the ukrainians. And by that I mean the probatable word. They aren't going to loving do it. They were never going to. They threaten to nuke everything and it's basically obvious it's a boogey man.

I mean let's proceed to say that us intelligence services has more data on Russian citizens than Russian intelligence services. With that being a thing, US intelligence services may be seeing the machine start to break down in ways we cannot.

If the system is breaking down the third collapse may be upon us. Which the United States would absolutely love to conflagrate. The killing blow as it were to Russia.

The US could be playing the conflict as a long game now. Ukraine will be very close to NATO requirements for weapons integration by the end of this. And a very seasoned military force on top of that. With those two things we have an absolute bulwark against a second Russia rising from the ashes of the fallen United Russia fascist government.

You write some of the best Ukraine war fan fiction I�ve ever seen. I only wish it was all true.

# ? Jul 16, 2022 05:03

Roller Coast Guard: Aug 27, 2006; With this magnificent aircraft,
and my magnificent facial hair,
the British Empire will never fall!

cinci zoo sniper posted:

Ukrainians claim $100m grant is for F-15 and F-16. Which should probably mean more planes than the math would suggest, as iirc some number of their pilots had received training on them in the US already.

There's only really the US which has dozens (hundreds?) of jets sitting around idle and ready to be sent to Ukraine, right? Any other airframe option for equipping the UAF would involve them sitting and waiting for years whilst new ones were built?

# ? Jul 16, 2022 07:11

fatherboxx: Mar 25, 2013

Getting Ukraine F-16s to use in this war would be impossible (time for training and setting up all the logistics/maintenance structure that is different from one for soviet planes) but Ukraine would need to be rearmed afterwards and reorienting on NATO gear is a given.

# ? Jul 16, 2022 08:11

Herstory Begins Now: Aug 5, 2003; SOME REALLY TEDIOUS DUMB SHIT THAT SUCKS ASS TO READ ->>

Why would it be impossible? Main obstacle is just that it would take a while. There's a related question of what else would you have to give them to maximize the value of them, but again that's just a matter of time and complexity and will more than possibility.

# ? Jul 16, 2022 08:20

Victis: Mar 26, 2008

Kraftwerk posted:

You write some of the best Ukraine war fan fiction I�ve ever seen. I only wish it was all true.

WCG is has actually been right about a few things! Unlike, say, the people that have toxxed themselves over F16s ever being flown by Ukraine

edit: or the guy who was unaware that Ukraine has artillery and aircraft at all lmao

Also just to touch on the ~5 million USD figure that�s thrown around to train a western fighter pilot, that includes all of the care and feeding expenses starting with basic training, going to officer training school, etc. Foreign pilots training on airframes don�t cost that

Victis fucked around with this message at 08:54 on Jul 16, 2022

# ? Jul 16, 2022 08:44

Rust Martialis: May 8, 2007; At night, Bavovnyatko quietly comes to the occupiers’ bases, depots, airfields, oil refineries and other places full of flammable items and starts playing with fire there

Cpt_Obvious posted:

This war needs to end.

Agreed. Russia needs to admit defeat and withdraw.

# ? Jul 16, 2022 09:06

Corky Romanovsky: Oct 1, 2006; Soiled Meat

Rust Martialis posted:

Agreed. Russia needs to admit defeat and withdraw.

The withdrawal process could be expedited with a negotiated ceasefire; has there been progress on this front? Any hesitation or reluctance?

# ? Jul 16, 2022 09:21

PerilPastry: Oct 10, 2012

fatherboxx posted:

Getting Ukraine F-16s to use in this war would be impossible (time for training and setting up all the logistics/maintenance structure that is different from one for soviet planes) but Ukraine would need to be rearmed afterwards and reorienting on NATO gear is a given.

Yeah, considering nothing's come of either Poland or Slavakia's proposals to transfer even MiGs because the WH is understandably risk averse I agree with this view.

Play seems to be not to transfer any airframes in the mid to medium term but to get all the pieces in motion for a swift transition to NATO gear the second the fighting ends to deter future aggression:

Kinzinger is the guy who introduced the amendment:

"Rep. Adam Kinzinger, R-Ill., told Defense News he has been in touch with the Kyiv on the matter and that he added the $100 million for training as an amendment to the defense authorization bill this week in order to facilitate an eventual shift of Ukraine�s military hardware away from Soviet-era technology.

�What we want to do is obviously send a message to authorize the process,� Kinzinger told Defense News. �There is no doubt to me that when this war ends, Ukraine is going to have to be outfitted with western military equipment. Plus, there�s just no more MiGs left and no more MiG supplies.�"

https://www.defensenews.com/congress/2022/07/15/house-authorizes-training-for-ukrainian-pilots-to-use-us-aircraft/

# ? Jul 16, 2022 09:27

Kchama: Jul 25, 2007

Corky Romanovsky posted:

The withdrawal process could be expedited with a negotiated ceasefire; has there been progress on this front? Any hesitation or reluctance?

It keeps breaking down because Russia keeps demanding they get everything they want, and in exchange Ukraine can be conquered by Russia.

# ? Jul 16, 2022 09:30

Rust Martialis: May 8, 2007; At night, Bavovnyatko quietly comes to the occupiers’ bases, depots, airfields, oil refineries and other places full of flammable items and starts playing with fire there

Corky Romanovsky posted:

The withdrawal process could be expedited with a negotiated ceasefire; has there been progress on this front? Any hesitation or reluctance?

Well considering Putin's repeated statements about annexing Ukraine, I'd say yes, Russia has demonstrated a clear lack of interest in the idea of withdrawal. Instead they've been conducting ongoing terror attacks against the civilian population if Ukraine as reported here and elsewhere.

His Peter the Great speech last month about retaking Russian lands, and so on.

https://nationalpost.com/pmn/news-pmn/hailing-peter-the-great-putin-draws-parallel-with-mission-to-return-russian-lands

Let Russia announce a unilateral ceasefire since they started a unilateral war. Nothing is stopping them.

# ? Jul 16, 2022 09:39

Keisari: May 24, 2011

This war needs to be won

# ? Jul 16, 2022 10:15

DTurtle: Apr 10, 2011

Corky Romanovsky posted:

The withdrawal process could be expedited with a negotiated ceasefire; has there been progress on this front? Any hesitation or reluctance?

The withdrawal from Kiev has shown that the Russian army does not need any help with that. If they wanted to, they could be out of the country in a couple of days.

# ? Jul 16, 2022 10:18

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# ? May 28, 2024 23:29

Rigel: Nov 11, 2016

Corky Romanovsky posted:

The withdrawal process could be expedited with a negotiated ceasefire; has there been progress on this front? Any hesitation or reluctance?

Ukraine is not interested in giving up any land whatsoever, and Putin has apparently concluded that admitting defeat is not an option. They are throwing old men and prisoners into the woodchipper, the only question is if they eventually go with a full mobilization and throw a completely untrained zerg rush into Ukraine.

# ? Jul 16, 2022 13:00

The Something Awful Forums > Archives > Comedy Goldmine > The Goodmine > READ OP! War in Ukraine: a distressed blender making too many margaritas at once

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