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SMO (Senior Military Official vice Defense Official today) drop. https://www.defense.gov/News/Transcripts/Transcript/Article/3095350/senior-military-official-holds-a-background-briefing/ tl;dr -100-150 civilian deaths' in the past two weeks as a result of Russian strikes. -Russian advances incremental/limited, if any in Northern Donbas -Essentially, Russia stalled out or extremely slow/limited across multiple lines -HIMARS continuing to affect supply, ammo, C2, but US doesn't want to comment on it specifically -US is not tracking weapons once they reach Ukraine, but has no positive indication that they are being used outside of Ukraine -No indication of Iranian UAVs in theater (this had been reported as a future possibility by National Security Advisor Sullivan) -SMO will not hazard a guess on percentages of supply issues, says that it clearly affects the immediate troops at the front not getting a resupply as planned, but that Russia has a large national stock of supplies -8 US-supplied HIMARS in operational use now, the other 4 US HIMARS have been delivered, but US cannot confirm if they are yet operational -SMO will not say the word Excalibur, but indicates delivery last week of 155mm rounds with "decent precision." -No indication China is assisting Russian war effort behind the scenes -When asked if the US is giving targeting information for HIMARS, response is "We've provided information that they're using across the battlefield." Opener, then just excerpts as I arbitrarily decide SMO posted:SENIOR MILITARY OFFICIAL: Hi, everybody, (inaudible). Again, good to be back with you. And I look forward to our conversation today, and hopefully some helpful conversation.
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# ? Jul 16, 2022 01:54 |
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# ? May 28, 2024 07:14 |
Cpt_Obvious posted:Where would they take off from? Does Ukraine have any functional air fields? Have they cloned the ghost? Plenty of functional airfields, they aren't paved with unobtainium.
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# ? Jul 16, 2022 01:55 |
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Cpt_Obvious posted:Where would they take off from? Does Ukraine have any functional air fields? Have they cloned the ghost? Air fields aren't that hard to rebuild. It's keeping the planes on the ground safe. Ukraine has bulldozers and concrete trucks. The Russian Cruise missile are getting shot down in higher numbers daily and the ishkander failure rates are getting higher and higher aswell. If they are becoming "familiarized" with US aircraft they will be flying them soon. Obviously Washington has Intel that's telling them Russia isn't going to be able to do anything against them for providing airframes and MBTs to the ukrainians. And by that I mean the probatable word. They aren't going to loving do it. They were never going to. They threaten to nuke everything and it's basically obvious it's a boogey man. I mean let's proceed to say that us intelligence services has more data on Russian citizens than Russian intelligence services. With that being a thing, US intelligence services may be seeing the machine start to break down in ways we cannot. If the system is breaking down the third collapse may be upon us. Which the United States would absolutely love to conflagrate. The killing blow as it were to Russia. The US could be playing the conflict as a long game now. Ukraine will be very close to NATO requirements for weapons integration by the end of this. And a very seasoned military force on top of that. With those two things we have an absolute bulwark against a second Russia rising from the ashes of the fallen United Russia fascist government. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST) WAR CRIME GIGOLO fucked around with this message at 02:01 on Jul 16, 2022 |
# ? Jul 16, 2022 01:58 |
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Cpt_Obvious posted:Where would they take off from? Does Ukraine have any functional air fields? Have they cloned the ghost? cinci zoo sniper posted:Plenty of functional airfields, they aren't paved with unobtainium. also, quite a few military aircraft can take off from and land on public roads and motorways (F16 and Gripen, to name a couple - and probably a fair bit more)
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# ? Jul 16, 2022 02:02 |
mlmp08 posted:SMO (Senior Military Official vice Defense Official today) drop. https://www.defense.gov/News/Transcripts/Transcript/Article/3095350/senior-military-official-holds-a-background-briefing/ Thanks for keeping up with DoD posts! So hmm, Ukraine has 12 units of M142 and M270 each it seems, with more Norwegian and British M270 deliveries in the public pipeline. How many of those in a normal American BCT? Also lol @ "decent precision rounds".
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# ? Jul 16, 2022 02:04 |
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quote:SENIOR MILITARY OFFICIAL: I love this quote so much it's just a summarization of military life and it's great to see a "SENIOR MILITARY OFFICIAL" just state it like it is. For Russia it's "when no one is telling me where to go I just drink vodka and try to acquire more vodka"
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# ? Jul 16, 2022 02:05 |
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One-two punch of updates! ISW's turn: https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1548104406129729538?s=20&t=1CjJmAm0Toli8DneDLgS-A quote:Ukrainian HIMARS strikes have likely killed or wounded four Russian 106th Airborne Division deputy commanders. Russian news outlets reported the deaths of 106th Division’s deputy commanders Colonel Sergey Kuzminov, Colonel Andrey Vasiliev, and Colonel Maxim Kudrin, seemingly confirming Ukrainian claims that HIMARS strikes on Shaktarsk on July 9 killed or wounded a significant portion of the 106th's leadership.[2] Ukraine’s Center for Strategic Communications claimed on July 12 that one unspecified 106th Airborne Division deputy commander remains in critical condition.[3]
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# ? Jul 16, 2022 02:18 |
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Plenty of functional airfields, they aren't paved with unobtainium. ...yeah but airplanes require an incredible amount of maintenance above and beyond just fuel, armaments, and housing. They are an incredibly delicate machines which doesn't really work for the guerilla warfare that Ukraine appears to be fighting.
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# ? Jul 16, 2022 02:23 |
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Cpt_Obvious posted:...yeah but airplanes require an incredible amount of maintenance above and beyond just fuel, armaments, and housing. They are an incredibly delicate machines which doesn't really work for the guerilla warfare that Ukraine appears to be fighting.
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# ? Jul 16, 2022 02:31 |
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Cpt_Obvious posted:...yeah but airplanes require an incredible amount of maintenance above and beyond just fuel, armaments, and housing. They are an incredibly delicate machines which doesn't really work for the guerilla warfare that Ukraine appears to be fighting. Maybe a bit during the stretch of the war around Kyiv, but I wouldn't say that's accurate in the east. Ukraine is operating with artillery formations, is pursuing defined offensives around Kherson/completed some around Kharkiv, and is continuing to fly air sorties, though with less frequency/intensity than Russia can (which is limited already) What about their operations indicates that Ukraine's army is fighting guerrilla style? Partisans in Kherson and elsewhere aren't operating as part of Ukraine's army.
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# ? Jul 16, 2022 02:32 |
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Every piece of footage I've seen is basically one dude shooting a rocket at a tank and then bailing.
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# ? Jul 16, 2022 02:34 |
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Cpt_Obvious posted:Every piece of footage I've seen is basically one dude shooting a rocket at a tank and then bailing. How do you expect light infantry to fight mechanized forces?
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# ? Jul 16, 2022 02:38 |
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KYOON GRIFFEY JR posted:How do you expect light infantry to fight mechanized forces? ......guerilla warfare?
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# ? Jul 16, 2022 02:38 |
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Cpt_Obvious posted:Every piece of footage I've seen is basically one dude shooting a rocket at a tank and then bailing. You should probably pay more attention to what's actually going on, then.
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# ? Jul 16, 2022 02:38 |
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Cpt_Obvious posted:Every piece of footage I've seen is basically one dude shooting a rocket at a tank and then bailing. There's been numerous videos posted here and elsewhere of Ukrainian soldiers using MRLS/artillery systems. You seem to be ill-informed. Perhaps review the sources you are using, they don't appear to be providing a comprehensive view of what's going on militarily.
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# ? Jul 16, 2022 02:41 |
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Cpt_Obvious posted:......guerilla warfare? I don’t think you understand what guerrilla warfare is
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# ? Jul 16, 2022 02:41 |
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Cpt_Obvious posted:......guerilla warfare? Do you know what guerilla warfare is?
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# ? Jul 16, 2022 02:41 |
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....wait the Ukrainians are going toe to toe with Russian artillery!? Holy poo poo. Never mind. This war needs to end.
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# ? Jul 16, 2022 02:44 |
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There’s for sure some fun irregular stuff going on in occupied Kherson oblast with irregulars and asymmetric warfare against the occupying RU army and installed government but to characterize the entire war in that way is just so incredibly far from accurate.
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# ? Jul 16, 2022 02:45 |
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Interesting audio from a Russian commander was obtained by Radio Svoboda. Thread has the more complete translation, but I pulled excerpts https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1547651366402764809?s=20&t=VgHEaxzMhh3L8gdeiroxOg https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1547651374464126976?s=20&t=VgHEaxzMhh3L8gdeiroxOg https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1547651378742366209?s=20&t=VgHEaxzMhh3L8gdeiroxOg https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1547651408417067013?s=20&t=VgHEaxzMhh3L8gdeiroxOg IN summary https://twitter.com/TimothyDSnyder/status/1548082306266435588?s=20&t=VgHEaxzMhh3L8gdeiroxOg
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# ? Jul 16, 2022 02:47 |
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Cpt_Obvious posted:Every piece of footage I've seen is basically one dude shooting a rocket at a tank and then bailing. most of the current footage from both sides seems to be artillery barrages filmed by drones and civilians filming when a nearby ammo dump gets hit by missiles, that's just what the war is right now Cpt_Obvious posted:This war needs to end.
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# ? Jul 16, 2022 02:53 |
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Cpt_Obvious posted:This war needs to end. Username/post combo of the year right there
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# ? Jul 16, 2022 02:56 |
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It seems if anything the war is going to result in a lasting stalemate?
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# ? Jul 16, 2022 02:58 |
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Another dawn is breaking in Kyiv, and it's still Ukrainian.
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# ? Jul 16, 2022 03:05 |
https://twitter.com/kyivindependent/status/1548074662680076289 Ukrainians claim $100m grant is for F-15 and F-16. Which should probably mean more planes than the math would suggest, as iirc some number of their pilots had received training on them in the US already. Edit: lmao https://twitter.com/kevinrothrock/status/1547970762438430720
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# ? Jul 16, 2022 03:25 |
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Hey, it's a free country
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# ? Jul 16, 2022 03:32 |
I’m feeling incredibly vindicated about maintaining that her entire act was bollocks. Anyway, https://twitter.com/osinttechnical/status/1548054522802556929
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# ? Jul 16, 2022 03:38 |
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WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:Air fields aren't that hard to rebuild. It's keeping the planes on the ground safe. Ukraine has bulldozers and concrete trucks. The Russian Cruise missile are getting shot down in higher numbers daily and the ishkander failure rates are getting higher and higher aswell. You write some of the best Ukraine war fan fiction I’ve ever seen. I only wish it was all true.
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# ? Jul 16, 2022 05:03 |
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cinci zoo sniper posted:
There's only really the US which has dozens (hundreds?) of jets sitting around idle and ready to be sent to Ukraine, right? Any other airframe option for equipping the UAF would involve them sitting and waiting for years whilst new ones were built?
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# ? Jul 16, 2022 07:11 |
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Getting Ukraine F-16s to use in this war would be impossible (time for training and setting up all the logistics/maintenance structure that is different from one for soviet planes) but Ukraine would need to be rearmed afterwards and reorienting on NATO gear is a given.
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# ? Jul 16, 2022 08:11 |
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Why would it be impossible? Main obstacle is just that it would take a while. There's a related question of what else would you have to give them to maximize the value of them, but again that's just a matter of time and complexity and will more than possibility.
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# ? Jul 16, 2022 08:20 |
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Kraftwerk posted:You write some of the best Ukraine war fan fiction I’ve ever seen. I only wish it was all true. WCG is has actually been right about a few things! Unlike, say, the people that have toxxed themselves over F16s ever being flown by Ukraine edit: or the guy who was unaware that Ukraine has artillery and aircraft at all lmao Also just to touch on the ~5 million USD figure that’s thrown around to train a western fighter pilot, that includes all of the care and feeding expenses starting with basic training, going to officer training school, etc. Foreign pilots training on airframes don’t cost that Victis fucked around with this message at 08:54 on Jul 16, 2022 |
# ? Jul 16, 2022 08:44 |
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Cpt_Obvious posted:This war needs to end. Agreed. Russia needs to admit defeat and withdraw.
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# ? Jul 16, 2022 09:06 |
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Rust Martialis posted:Agreed. Russia needs to admit defeat and withdraw. The withdrawal process could be expedited with a negotiated ceasefire; has there been progress on this front? Any hesitation or reluctance?
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# ? Jul 16, 2022 09:21 |
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fatherboxx posted:Getting Ukraine F-16s to use in this war would be impossible (time for training and setting up all the logistics/maintenance structure that is different from one for soviet planes) but Ukraine would need to be rearmed afterwards and reorienting on NATO gear is a given. Yeah, considering nothing's come of either Poland or Slavakia's proposals to transfer even MiGs because the WH is understandably risk averse I agree with this view. Play seems to be not to transfer any airframes in the mid to medium term but to get all the pieces in motion for a swift transition to NATO gear the second the fighting ends to deter future aggression: Kinzinger is the guy who introduced the amendment: "Rep. Adam Kinzinger, R-Ill., told Defense News he has been in touch with the Kyiv on the matter and that he added the $100 million for training as an amendment to the defense authorization bill this week in order to facilitate an eventual shift of Ukraine’s military hardware away from Soviet-era technology. “What we want to do is obviously send a message to authorize the process,” Kinzinger told Defense News. “There is no doubt to me that when this war ends, Ukraine is going to have to be outfitted with western military equipment. Plus, there’s just no more MiGs left and no more MiG supplies.”" https://www.defensenews.com/congress/2022/07/15/house-authorizes-training-for-ukrainian-pilots-to-use-us-aircraft/
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# ? Jul 16, 2022 09:27 |
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Corky Romanovsky posted:The withdrawal process could be expedited with a negotiated ceasefire; has there been progress on this front? Any hesitation or reluctance? It keeps breaking down because Russia keeps demanding they get everything they want, and in exchange Ukraine can be conquered by Russia.
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# ? Jul 16, 2022 09:30 |
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Corky Romanovsky posted:The withdrawal process could be expedited with a negotiated ceasefire; has there been progress on this front? Any hesitation or reluctance? Well considering Putin's repeated statements about annexing Ukraine, I'd say yes, Russia has demonstrated a clear lack of interest in the idea of withdrawal. Instead they've been conducting ongoing terror attacks against the civilian population if Ukraine as reported here and elsewhere. His Peter the Great speech last month about retaking Russian lands, and so on. https://nationalpost.com/pmn/news-pmn/hailing-peter-the-great-putin-draws-parallel-with-mission-to-return-russian-lands Let Russia announce a unilateral ceasefire since they started a unilateral war. Nothing is stopping them.
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# ? Jul 16, 2022 09:39 |
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This war needs to be won
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# ? Jul 16, 2022 10:15 |
Corky Romanovsky posted:The withdrawal process could be expedited with a negotiated ceasefire; has there been progress on this front? Any hesitation or reluctance?
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# ? Jul 16, 2022 10:18 |
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# ? May 28, 2024 07:14 |
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Corky Romanovsky posted:The withdrawal process could be expedited with a negotiated ceasefire; has there been progress on this front? Any hesitation or reluctance? Ukraine is not interested in giving up any land whatsoever, and Putin has apparently concluded that admitting defeat is not an option. They are throwing old men and prisoners into the woodchipper, the only question is if they eventually go with a full mobilization and throw a completely untrained zerg rush into Ukraine.
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# ? Jul 16, 2022 13:00 |