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Published a 141 pages on it and fled the country https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1560022547785211908 https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1560022552046718984
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Aug 18, 2022 01:22
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Trouble in the "International Legion" Kyiv Independent is generally cringe but this is a decent article. https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1560012923434663936?cxt=HHwWgIC8paLfo6YrAAAA Charlotte Hornets fucked around with this message at 01:37 on Aug 18, 2022 |
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Aug 18, 2022 01:34
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Charlotte Hornets posted:Trouble in the "International Legion" https://twitter.com/DickusMaxximun/status/1560020471256678401
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Aug 18, 2022 01:58
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don't post your own tweets (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Aug 18, 2022 02:02
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Kraftwerk posted:Fun fact, while all royal titles and privileges for the Habsburgs are formally abolished in Austria, they are still legal and official under Croatian laws. What? No they aren't
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Aug 18, 2022 03:04
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Another dawn is breaking in Kyiv, and it's still Ukrainian.    Radyans'ka Square, Simferopol
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Aug 18, 2022 03:51
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Charlz Guybon posted:Published a 141 pages on it and fled the country But you have to be careful what you impute. These miserable soldiers are still advancing in pockets, still fighting, and still defending well enough so that Ukraine is having difficulty creating even tactical advances. I think the one thing you can say with certainty is that had these poor Russian fuckers been well-equipped, paid well, fed well, and led well, the map might look different. But it was all on paper, mere paper.
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Aug 18, 2022 04:46
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Charlz Guybon posted:Published a 141 pages on it and fled the country If there ever was proof how miserable Twitter is for anything longer than a joke post it's this hydra of threads : Psyduck: Is there a translated longform of the publication yet? I'd be very interested to read that.
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Aug 18, 2022 04:58
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Son of Rodney posted:If there ever was proof how miserable Twitter is for anything longer than a joke post it's this hydra of threads : Psyduck: The fact that twitter hasn't already put in some sort of automatic thread unroller thing yet for larger twitter threads is ridiculous. I hate that legitimately good information is often posted on there. The way it displays images is also complete garbage. On topic though, one of the more interesting claims made by the solider in his, um report I guess? Was that he thought that total number of Russian troops that went into Ukraine could of been about 100'000 and that a lot of the soldiers just existed on paper, not just equipment. Hopfully that means there's still far less Russians there then thought, and that the trend continues with any additional troops they try and send in.
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Aug 18, 2022 05:13
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dr_rat posted:The fact that twitter hasn't already put in some sort of automatic thread unroller thing yet for larger twitter threads is ridiculous. I hate that legitimately good information is often posted on there. The way it displays images is also complete garbage. There's no way there was about 100K Russian soldiers, that would mean by the most conservative estimate over half their invasion force is dead or incapacitated. Has to be more than that even at the beginning, even counting for additional forces bought in over time.
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Aug 18, 2022 05:42
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200,000 soldiers only equipped for 100,000 soldiers seems a better conclusion.
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Aug 18, 2022 06:11
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Come to think of it, yes, this is exactly what I look for in a staunch ally. https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1560015797367488517?cxt=HHwWioCy4caGpaYrAAAA
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Aug 18, 2022 07:31
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CAT INTERCEPTOR posted:There's no way there was about 100K Russian soldiers, that would mean by the most conservative estimate over half their invasion force is dead or incapacitated. Has to be more than that even at the beginning, even counting for additional forces bought in over time. I think most Western Intel agencies estimated the Russians invaded with 100K at a minimum. I heard the 150-175K figure mentioned the most. And that's probably just Russian soldiers. The separatist forces are probably not an insignificant amount of added (cannon fodder) troops. And then you have mercenaries like Wagner and Chechen forces. So yeah the 100k figure is probably unrealisticly low.
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Aug 18, 2022 07:47
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the popes toes posted:200,000 soldiers only equipped for 100,000 soldiers seems a better conclusion. The old "the first man takes the rifle, the second man takes the ammo" situation?
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Aug 18, 2022 08:12
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Fuschia tude posted:The old "the first man takes the rifle, the second man takes the ammo" situation? Which has never happened, and didn't happen here either. If they were underequipped, it is not because of the malevolent design of the Russian army, but rampant theft, corruption and lies from high and mid ranking officers. "Sure Colonel, we have the whole regiment trained and ready for combat" when in reality half of the rifles are malfunctioning but nobody cares because they didn't think their unit would see any action besides the 2 weirdly handsome dudes being sent to Moscow on their V-Day parade. The whole campaign of mistrust that the russian media create for internal consumption so that noone trusts any reports also extends to the army - so everyone thinks they're out on their own and just gather stuff for themselves as much as they can. There is no loyalty to the state, no will to improve, polish and refine the army, there is only the will to stuff your pockets full of cash and try to survive. And when poo poo hits the fan, the only thing that keeps you in the structures is fear of what they will do to you/family if you gently caress up/disobey.
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Aug 18, 2022 08:24
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AFAIK it's not that they were underequipped, but perhaps overequipped. They took all their fancy BTGs with their full complement of equipment - but only staffed with the professional specialist staff and none of the infantry to provide support and exploitation. Because the grunts were supposed to be provided from the conscript pools, which couldn't happen as no war was declared. So they rolled in with a skeleton crew just big enough to drive their vehicles and no troops to take ground, no squads to deploy from the hundreds of IFVs and APCs... But even so the 100k estimate is definitely too low, maybe it's true if you only count strictly frontline fighting troops and none of the train elements.
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Aug 18, 2022 08:29
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Kikas posted:Which has never happened, and didn't happen here either. If they were underequipped, it is not because of the malevolent design of the Russian army, but rampant theft, corruption and lies from high and mid ranking officers. "Sure Colonel, we have the whole regiment trained and ready for combat" when in reality half of the rifles are malfunctioning but nobody cares because they didn't think their unit would see any action besides the 2 weirdly handsome dudes being sent to Moscow on their V-Day parade. The grift of trying to maintain facade of readiness is not just a Russian monopoly though: it is a universal phenomenon in militaries around the world since in a strictly hierarchical organization the higher you go the heavier the competition and hence the pressure to do creative excelwork on what the status of your commmanded unit is. It is just that the order of magnitude is completely different on Russian Army since they realistically cannot have met their readiness requirements given by the state since Soviet days due to the military budget, So instead of a few vehicles listed as ”working with commander approval” or ”waiting on parts” in a battalion it is entire companies reporting half nonexisting soldiers for payroll money- and relaying in everyone doing the same anyway with confidence they wont get caught.
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Aug 18, 2022 08:38
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SolarFire2 posted:Casus porkbelli.  the popes toes posted:Come to think of it, yes, this is exactly what I look for in a staunch ally. What actually is the right-wing/conservative media like in Finland? Are they as bad as the Murdoch empire is in UK/US/Australia...?
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Aug 18, 2022 08:44
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Charliegrs posted:I think most Western Intel agencies estimated the Russians invaded with 100K at a minimum. I heard the 150-175K figure mentioned the most. Yeah, I'd say the safe bet is around 150 000 Russian soldiers at the most in the invading force that actually went into Ukraine. Separatist forces were some some 50 000 strong before the invasion and they have since basically gone into total mobilization, scraping the barrel for anyone they can put in "uniform" to the point where there are reports of 60 year old men hiding or fleeing to avoid being drafted. And those have not just been used in secondline duties either, they are used on the front line, likely not in assaults, but on the frontline, and they have suffered signficant casualties. This should be kept in mind with the Western and Ukrainian casualty estimates, they don't just apply to the Russian forces. So not unlike how ethnic minorities and disadvantaged regions are disproportionally represented in personnel and casualties among the actual Russian forces, it's very likely that the way this war is being waged is taking a pretty terrible toll out of the remaining adult male population of the "people's republics".
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Aug 18, 2022 08:46
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“Separatist” forces as of 2019 were estimated to be ~35k combined, this figure including the thousands of Russian Federation military personnel running the shop there. By 2022 it likely shrunk below 25k, as the Russians were rapidly downsizing the operation there when line of contact froze, if you compare, e.g., the 2019 estimates to those from 2017.
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Aug 18, 2022 09:09
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Cable Guy posted:
No nothing like the Murdoch empire. Most nation wide media is quite centrist and independent, with slight leanings to various directions. Of course all the political parties have their on papers and push more the partys agenda. Usually the most conservative hot takes come from the more rural regions local papers, which reflects the population more conservative leanings. The last time we had a party-scandal the leader of the Green party had to resign after he was photographed spanking some dude in a gay nightclub in Stockholm.    
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Aug 18, 2022 09:17
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Rinkles posted:I was responding to this The pre-invasion aid was so important it caused Trump's first impeachment when he withheld that aid in exchange for political favors
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Aug 18, 2022 09:21
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Cable Guy posted:
I love that there is like five or six people at this "party"....and one guy who insists that they blur his face. Like the number of people at this thing was so small, they are going to know it is you in that video, Ted.
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Aug 18, 2022 09:37
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the popes toes posted:Come to think of it, yes, this is exactly what I look for in a staunch ally. or perhaps this 'leak' is related to that
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Aug 18, 2022 10:06
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I wish Putin would invade already so I can at least avoid this stupid news cycle.
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Aug 18, 2022 10:49
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Seems like whatever blew up another time in Crimea, wasn't an air base https://twitter.com/Aviation_Intel/status/1559990678045634561 uncleTomOfFinland posted:I wish Putin would invade already so I can at least avoid this stupid news cycle. He's probably too distracted, why don't you kick it off mobby_6kl fucked around with this message at 11:04 on Aug 18, 2022 |
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Aug 18, 2022 11:02
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CAT INTERCEPTOR posted:There's no way there was about 100K Russian soldiers, that would mean by the most conservative estimate over half their invasion force is dead or incapacitated. Has to be more than that even at the beginning, even counting for additional forces bought in over time. They've been steadily moving replacement troops in to replace loses, so there is nothing significant about 50%, 100% or even 150% casualties when calculated as a fraction of the *initial* forces. The percentage just means that attritional warfare is highly destructive. Fwiw I've heard the 120k estimate thrown around alot.
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Aug 18, 2022 12:53
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the popes toes posted:Come to think of it, yes, this is exactly what I look for in a staunch ally. She seems super cool? Weird.
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Aug 18, 2022 14:33
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One man has rifle and one has ammo. Good stuff all around for a war effort. This is a pretty interesting especially with all the people running around with Mosins. They probably scrounged up every AK from the Donetsk and luhansk fascists and gave them Mosins instead just to get troops able to go fight. I own a mosin funny enough and I couldn't see it being an assault weapon versus an AK or other rifle which is purpose build for compactness. Mosins have just insane recoil and are fairly weak on the accuracy side versus modern rifles. Also the ammo Russia uses for it's AKs and Mosins is corrosive. Which is bad for gun all around . Not all of it is corrosive but whatever they are pulling from stock is definitely not conducive to long term equipment use. Mosins don't have a safety and tend to fire themselves upon being dropped or hitting a hard object and corrosion makes that problem worse and worse. I'd never have a round racked in it and would spray CLP into the magazine every loving load because I was so afraid of it jamming. As it's also a huge pain to clear a jam of it gets really stuck. So all in all a poo poo gun and ineffective. There's some cursory evidence that these are on the front lines aswell and that the Russian soldiers are being condensed by Wagner group just to die when the mosin blows up in their hands or refuses to fire because the firing pin corroded stuck. Enough about mosins. Russia is still suffering from near daily HIMARS strikes at a range of targets. From barracks to vehicle depot's to ammo dumps. It's crazy too as the distances are maxed out on some of em. Like a rail bridge in Melitopol was poo poo out a few days ago either a bridge or rail depot either way bad for artillery business.
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Aug 18, 2022 14:36
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OddObserver posted:Best I can find googling around is https://www.google.com/amp/s/gagadg...e-howitzer-amp/ which is rather light on details. I guess this explains why the US didn't buy PzH2000's after the Crusader program was cancelled. steinrokkan posted:AFAIK it's not that they were underequipped, but perhaps overequipped. They took all their fancy BTGs with their full complement of equipment - but only staffed with the professional specialist staff and none of the infantry to provide support and exploitation. Because the grunts were supposed to be provided from the conscript pools, which couldn't happen as no war was declared. So they rolled in with a skeleton crew just big enough to drive their vehicles and no troops to take ground, no squads to deploy from the hundreds of IFVs and APCs... But even so the 100k estimate is definitely too low, maybe it's true if you only count strictly frontline fighting troops and none of the train elements. This is a better description. Russian units were under-manned, and the missing people were infantry. They had a good amount of equipment, albeit in bad repair. Valtonen posted:The grift of trying to maintain facade of readiness is not just a Russian monopoly though: it is a universal phenomenon in militaries around the world since in a strictly hierarchical organization the higher you go the heavier the competition and hence the pressure to do creative excelwork on what the status of your commmanded unit is. Story time, to illustrate this. When I was a tank platoon leader, we were under immense pressure to keep our tanks off the "deadline" report: a maintenance status in which you're not supposed to move the vehicle, or can't move the vehicle. Skirt pins--gigantic pins which keep the side armor skirts from opening--kept going missing, and you can't drive a tank if a 350kg armored panel goes flying open every time you drive down the road, so tanks kept getting deadlined. Sergeants would then steal someone else's skirt pin at night so that by morning, their tank wasn't deadlined (and someone else's was). Finally two of my tanks had missing skirt pins. Of course my sergeants suggested acquiring someone else's skirt pins. I told them gently caress no, order them from maintenance. In fact, order twice as many as are missing. They're like $8 each. "But sir," they said, "the company commander will be pissed at you because two of your tanks are deadlined." (I had awesome sergeants who did an amazing job looking out for their soldiers and lieutenants. Seriously , they were great.) I told them the CO was my problem. 6 days later I wasn't fired, every tank in the battalion had skirt pins because we ordered so many extras, and I think we even had a couple extras in ammo cans the rest of my time there just in case. I can almost guarantee that kind of poo poo doesn't happen in the Russian army. All of those little maintenance things add up. the popes toes posted:Come to think of it, yes, this is exactly what I look for in a staunch ally. I hate passive voice in headlines. Who, specifically, has criticized her? Passive voice like that I just interpret as some misogynist not wanting to see a woman party; they wouldn't have any problem if the prime minister were a man partying.
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Aug 18, 2022 15:18
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Ynglaur posted:I hate passive voice in headlines. Who, specifically, has criticized her? Passive voice like that I just interpret as some misogynist not wanting to see a woman party; they wouldn't have any problem if the prime minister were a man partying. its literally just yellow papers being weird about her in Finland.
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Aug 18, 2022 15:21
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Ynglaur posted:I hate passive voice in headlines. Who, specifically, has criticized her? Passive voice like that I just interpret as some misogynist not wanting to see a woman party; they wouldn't have any problem if the prime minister were a man partying. People who don't have fun in their own lives, or who wasted their youth, like to criticize others having a good time. Young male politicians these days face similar issues too - one of the leading politicians in Ireland (our ex prime minister) is a gay man in his early 40s and has had issues with the media covering him attending music festivals and similar too.
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Aug 18, 2022 16:31
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Wait, so the plant is still providing power to Ukraine? This is kinda hilarious. They can't make up their mind if this is a special operation or total war.
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Aug 18, 2022 19:23
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FishBulbia posted:Wait, so the plant is still providing power to Ukraine? This is kinda hilarious. They can't make up their mind if this is a special operation or total war. Disconnecting nuclear plants is no trivial matter.
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Aug 18, 2022 19:27
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What are the chances that Russia's probably going to try a false flag by attacking the nuke plant and blaming Ukraine for it? I'm 50/50 on it
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Aug 18, 2022 19:42
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HonorableTB posted:What are the chances that Russia's probably going to try a false flag by attacking the nuke plant and blaming Ukraine for it? I'm 50/50 on it I think the chances of them blowing something up there to the tune of serious radiological disaster (e.g., where settlements in vicinity must be permanently abandoned) are very low, at the moment. There exists a theoretical scorched earth scenario where they do that to cover their retreat, in my mind, but I don’t see conditions for that anywhere on the horizon.
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Aug 18, 2022 19:51
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I assume the only way to handle the Russian troops at the NPP at this point is to surround it and starve them out.
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Aug 18, 2022 19:53
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Wind conditions in the region would blow nuclear material into Russian occupied territory. Not ukrianian. So they'd poison out their figuring force and kill off Crimean tourism. Doesn't seem like the best way for Russia to protract their invasion.
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Aug 18, 2022 20:04
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I think Cinci is right that the chance of a major incident is low, but who knows with how many Russians officers are getting crossed out how decision-making is being handled. https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1560336432861945857?s=20&t=sqDmBkpprtM_M6t0ozrfkQ
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Aug 18, 2022 20:12
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