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ekuNNN posted:lol cool patch that american's got there Is that a sombrero on that SS death's head?
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Sep 7, 2022 03:55
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A.o.D. posted:Is that a sombrero on that SS death's head? yeah, he has a bigger one on his helmet that you see later. I'm gonna guess he's some 4chan neonazi
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Sep 7, 2022 03:56
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Hyperlynx posted:I wonder how it'll affect things back on the Korean Peninsula if/when DPRK equipment turns out to be as dogshit as Russian equipment has. It won't. No one is under any illusions North Korea can win a war, the questions are how much damage can they do before they go down (real nice Seoul and Tokyo you got there, shame if anything atoms-related were to happen to them) and if China would get involved (I suspect as much as they don't want a unified Korea on their border they wouldn't be willing to fight over it, but it's a risk). Everyone already knows North Korea's military is barely functional. Russia is different since it was assumed their military was a serious world contender until they decided to show everyone otherwise.
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Sep 7, 2022 04:07
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Grand Fromage posted:It won't. No one is under any illusions North Korea can win a war, the questions are how much damage can they do before they go down (real nice Seoul and Tokyo you got there, shame if anything atoms-related were to happen to them) and if China would get involved (I suspect as much as they don't want a unified Korea on their border they wouldn't be willing to fight over it, but it's a risk). Everyone already knows North Korea's military is barely functional. Russia is different since it was assumed their military was a serious world contender until they decided to show everyone otherwise. NK's nukes are one thing, but they had a very well-developed CBR program well before they hit the Yahtzee.
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Sep 7, 2022 04:34
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ekuNNN posted:yeah, he has a bigger one on his helmet that you see later. I'm gonna guess he's some 4chan neonazi There's sadly no shortage of that type of imagery on either side in this war.
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Sep 7, 2022 04:38
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Grand Fromage posted:It won't. No one is under any illusions North Korea can win a war, the questions are how much damage can they do before they go down (real nice Seoul and Tokyo you got there, shame if anything atoms-related were to happen to them) and if China would get involved (I suspect as much as they don't want a unified Korea on their border they wouldn't be willing to fight over it, but it's a risk). Everyone already knows North Korea's military is barely functional. Russia is different since it was assumed their military was a serious world contender until they decided to show everyone otherwise. That makes sense. Thanks, that was insightful
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Sep 7, 2022 04:46
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BIG HEADLINE posted:NK's nukes are one thing, but they had a very well-developed CBR program well before they hit the Yahtzee. Not sure that community based rehabilitation is going to help you play board games, to be honest.
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Sep 7, 2022 05:09
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ekuNNN posted:lol cool patch that american's got there Mein Dios!
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Sep 7, 2022 06:16
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Not to mention that attempting to fix all the problems north of the DMZ would be more damaging to South Korea’s economy and social safety net than anything else NK could do to them short of dropping a Fat Man on Seoul. Reunification is a feel good post scarcity dream of a talking point. Given a reality where capital driven economics is no longer a factor and you can just materialize a trillion dollars a year to pump into a united Korea, sure, but capitalism won’t ever allow that, so it unfortunately won’t happen.
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Sep 7, 2022 06:23
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Kazinsal posted:Not to mention that attempting to fix all the problems north of the DMZ would be more damaging to South Korea’s economy and social safety net than anything else NK could do to them short of dropping a Fat Man on Seoul. SK has no interest in reunification, but they do have a plan for it if it happened and it's basically to keep the north as a separate colonial possession administered by SK and cheap workforce for the chaebols. North Koreans wouldn't be allowed to cross the border until the north is sufficiently developed to re-integrate without destroying the country, which conveniently is not up to them.
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Sep 7, 2022 06:40
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A.o.D. posted:Is that a sombrero on that SS death's head? Can someone ID the patch on his helmet? It looked like the US flag combined with something yellow. Phone posting otherwise I'd post a screenshot. Say NK is going to sell artillery munition to Russia, I guess SK will pay extra attention to the war and see what information they can glean off EDIT: Ah, looks like it's just an American flag spliced with the Ukrainian Fragrag fucked around with this message at 09:22 on Sep 7, 2022 |
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Sep 7, 2022 07:24
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pantslesswithwolves posted:If anyone has listened to any Darknet Diaries episode about state-sponsored hacking and how most of it leads back to North Korea, then they’d recognize that this is the closest thing that DPRK has come to participation in the “legitimate” global economy for a long time. Pretty much all they have is weapons trafficking, drugs trafficking and cyber crime at this point. I'm not up to date, I probably haven't listened to every episode, and security is not my realm of computer touching, but the "state sponsored hacking" eps I've listened to all deal with Israel*, not DPRK. Edit: * not sure it's state sponsored but a couple of Israeli companies love to sell tools to authoritarian governments. highme fucked around with this message at 08:50 on Sep 7, 2022 |
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Sep 7, 2022 08:42
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highme posted:I'm not up to date, I probably haven't listened to every episode, and security is not my realm of computer touching, but the "state sponsored hacking" eps I've listened to all deal with Israel*, not DPRK. Mossad does Mossad things online because it's powerful and convenient when you're the Mossad. DPRK does Discount Mossad things online because ransomware payouts and rugpulls can be turned into food and coal.
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Sep 7, 2022 08:52
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https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1567464762098814983?s=20&t=lDrq412cSvDDy97qSQw6zQ
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Sep 7, 2022 13:37
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most state sponsored hacking absolutely, categorically does not trace back to north korea, that sounds like a significant (I'm guessing) misinterpretation of something else or a much more specific statement that was not meant to apply so broadly (eg most in x industry in y region, which is possible).
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Sep 7, 2022 13:43
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Lots of talk this morning of a small Ukrainian breakthrough on the Izyum axis which has encircled the garrison of Balakiya. Apparently the Russians have no reserves in this area since everything was punted south to Kherson. https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1567395435685216256 https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1567459059527290882?s=20&t=P96Mrg0S-0Kc0bhoDFYU6w Generation Internet fucked around with this message at 13:54 on Sep 7, 2022 |
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Sep 7, 2022 13:51
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This feels like a pretty big deal for Ukraine. It's a big message that there's not going to be a frozen conflict if Russia can't generate sufficient forces to stabilise the frontline and Ukraine is agile enough to punish them where they take risk.
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Sep 7, 2022 14:14
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pantslesswithwolves posted:I also wonder if it’ll actually help the Russian war effort. It seems like DPRK understands that the US and ROK have mapped every inch of the Korean Peninsula for counterbattery fire, and that the survivability of their guns involves them being highly mobile and getting off the X before the retaliatory rounds arrive. I don’t know if Russia has internalized that and even if they have whether they can integrate that into how their troops are fighting this war. If they're shipping Koksan artillery (the most powerful guns in the North Korean arsenal), they are designed as "first strike" weapons - North Korea's deterrence before they developed nukes, a surprise 170mm artillery barrage turning Seoul into a flaming ruin. The thing is, they only fire 1-2 rounds every 5 minutes, so they would not be terribly effective in Ukraine. North Korea has 400 Koksans and almost certainly will not sell them all (if they sell any) as they are the longest range and most destructive weapons in the North Korean arsenal (short of missiles and nukes). If they're NOT shipping Koksans, they're probably shipping 152mm howitzers, which are Korean War-era guns but probably still work, and North Korea has about 500 of them. North Korea has about 250 BM21 Grad MRLS and 50 BM24s but they're almost certainly not sending those. They love rockets too much. Source: this RAND study from 2020 which is pretty authoritative. https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RRA600/RRA619-1/RAND_RRA619-1.pdf
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Sep 7, 2022 15:19
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The more things change... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pLJ-3T7K9rE
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Sep 7, 2022 15:28
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pantslesswithwolves posted:If anyone has listened to any Darknet Diaries episode about state-sponsored hacking and how most of it leads back to North Korea, then they’d recognize that this is the closest thing that DPRK has come to participation in the “legitimate” global economy for a long time. Pretty much all they have is weapons trafficking, drugs trafficking and cyber crime at this point. what where are you getting the idea the NKs doctrine is highly mobile guns? their approach to counter battery fire has been to spend decades digging artillery deep into mountains. maybe something changed in the last decade or so, but I'd be very surprised if they did a 180 on that
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Sep 7, 2022 22:20
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https://mobile.twitter.com/Rebel44CZ/status/1567622172444590087 What in the ungodly gently caress is going on in Ukraine Russians are getting just absolutely pantsed 
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Sep 7, 2022 22:42
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Unless something historically unusual is happening we should expect Ukrainian losses several times higher, correct?
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Sep 7, 2022 22:46
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slurm posted:Unless something historically unusual is happening we should expect Ukrainian losses several times higher, correct? From the sound of it the Ukrainians are taking about the losses you would expect near Kherson where they're attacking VDV and other Russian regulars who were expecting them. Near Kharkiv/Izyum it looks like they've just been blowing through LNR/DNR conscripts and Russian riot police. I don't think even the pro-Russian telegram channels have been claiming significant Ukrainian losses there.
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Sep 7, 2022 23:03
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aphid_licker posted:https://mobile.twitter.com/Rebel44CZ/status/1567622172444590087 as I said a couple days ago, idk what's going on but A LOT of videos of russian armor blowing up are being generated also doesn't seem to be slowing down yet
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Sep 7, 2022 23:06
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to be less vague, among other things, Ukrainian forces pushed through a Russian held village and instead of stopping there just kept going and apparently pushed a couple villages farther up the highway that also was the main supply line for the russian forces in the area E: https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1567459059527290882?s=20&t=vC-aGBVjOmGd07GT8BIIVw
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Sep 7, 2022 23:15
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Herstory Begins Now posted:to be less vague, among other things, Ukrainian forces pushed through a Russian held village and instead of stopping there just kept going and apparently pushed a couple villages farther up the highway that also was the main supply line for the russian forces in the area gently caress. Nice move.
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Sep 7, 2022 23:19
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Herstory Begins Now posted:to be less vague, among other things, Ukrainian forces pushed through a Russian held village and instead of stopping there just kept going and apparently pushed a couple villages farther up the highway that also was the main supply line for the russian forces in the area It looks like they've just about put a lid on that cauldron.
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Sep 7, 2022 23:43
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Herstory Begins Now posted:to be less vague, among other things, Ukrainian forces pushed through a Russian held village and instead of stopping there just kept going and apparently pushed a couple villages farther up the highway that also was the main supply line for the russian forces in the area Oh look, the Ukrainians are using the old Soviet tactic of Deep Battle 
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Sep 7, 2022 23:46
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I'm liking those truck losses. What ever happened to the convoy of doom? That was a huge amount of trucks, were they mostly abandoned and then captured, turned around and went elsewhere, or? It seemed that it literally ran out of fuel at the time. edit: answered my own question, it apparently has it's own wikipedia page Jimmy Smuts fucked around with this message at 00:15 on Sep 8, 2022 |
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Sep 8, 2022 00:12
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1812 Overture Ukrainian Remix Edition https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1567650179112751104?s=20&t=n5rkv-y6z9ulEr7vv_Bj9A https://twitter.com/OAlexanderDK/status/1567652214461632513?s=20&t=n5rkv-y6z9ulEr7vv_Bj9A
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Sep 8, 2022 00:20
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You're welcome
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Sep 8, 2022 00:21
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slurm posted:Unless something historically unusual is happening we should expect Ukrainian losses several times higher, correct? That depends on a lot of factors. If an enemy that you are attacking is prepared, has high morale, knows that you're coming especially, you can expect the casualty ratio to perhaps be 3 attackers for every 1 defender. There's some force ratio calculators out there that military staffs use for wargaming purposes that reflect that. In this case, the Russians are strewn with issues that allowed the Ukrainians to see great success at a very, very low cost of their own.
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Sep 8, 2022 00:31
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aphid_licker posted:https://mobile.twitter.com/Rebel44CZ/status/1567622172444590087 Russians rotated any unit that could do combat south and east so there's not really anything there, just paper units with a couple weeks training. Ukrainians softened with HIMARS and are trying to break their ability to resupply around Izyum.
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Sep 8, 2022 01:02
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Jimmy Smuts posted:I'm liking those truck losses. What ever happened to the convoy of doom? That was a huge amount of trucks, were they mostly abandoned and then captured, turned around and went elsewhere, or? It seemed that it literally ran out of fuel at the time. What is the wikipedia page?
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Sep 8, 2022 01:06
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There's also a very lopsided amount of videos of kias/pows and over-run positions, though i wouldn't read too much into that just yet, but it's not insignificant either. There's pretty good information control overall, but you still need positions to change hands to generate that kind of material and it's absence from the russian side is noteworthy so far. Caveat about generalizing micro to macro goes here, probably. E: also probably worth adding that russian mil bloggers and telegram channels are doom and glooming pretty hard Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 01:38 on Sep 8, 2022 |
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Sep 8, 2022 01:35
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Vincent Van Goatse posted:Oh look, the Ukrainians are using the old Soviet tactic of Deep Battle What is Deep Battle? I've seen the term thrown around in discussions of Soviet military history and doctrine, but don't really understand what it means or how it differs from NATO doctrine.
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Sep 8, 2022 02:17
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Soylent Pudding posted:What is Deep Battle? I've seen the term thrown around in discussions of Soviet military history and doctrine, but don't really understand what it means or how it differs from NATO doctrine. In a nutshell, it's Blitzkrieg on steroids. The diagram above is what we all learned (sort of) in grade school/middle school about Nazi Germany's Blitzkrieg. At the tactical level, a breach is made with an armored spearhead and follow-on forces rapidly exploit the breach. The ultimate goal of this tactic is to quickly encircle an enemy to create a 'pocket' and isolate the enemy troops. Shaping the decisive effort (the encirclement/breaching the initial lines) are usually artillery and close air support. The major limitation of what the Germans did in the Eastern Front was that these were done on a relatively small scale, usually at the 'tactical' level: the lowest echelon, such as divisions and corps. Now what the Soviets conceived during the 30's and used in terrifying effect in '43/44 was Deep Battle. As mentioned earlier, it's upscaled Blitzkrieg.  The biggest distinguishing factor is that the Soviets didn't intend to create encirclements. Russian forces will make a breach, and then widen it and widen it and widen it. They fight beyond the tactical echelon and continuously pursue and exploit the breach and have their units go further and further into the enemy's rear lines to disrupt and destroy anything from communications to supplies. The key for this was that they would never give the Germans any space to recover/reconsolidate/reconstitute, because you have loving Russian armor brigades rampaging across where you once had your logistic depots and subordinate headquarters.
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Sep 8, 2022 02:39
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c355n4 posted:What is the wikipedia page? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_Kyiv_convoy
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Sep 8, 2022 02:52
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ISW Update on the breakthrough (emphasis mine): https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-7 quote:Ukrainian forces in southeastern Kharkiv Oblast are likely exploiting Russian force reallocation to the Southern Axis to conduct an opportunistic yet highly effective counteroffensive northwest of Izyum. Ukrainian forces likely used tactical surprise to advance at least 20km into Russian-held territory in eastern Kharkiv Oblast on September 7, recapturing approximately 400 square kilometers of ground. Russian sources claimed that Russian troops began deploying reinforcements to the area to defend against Ukrainian advances, and the Russian grouping in this area was likely understrength due to previous Russian deployments to support ongoing efforts to capture the remainder of Donetsk Oblast and support the southern axis.[1] Ukraine’s ongoing operations in Kherson Oblast have forced Russian forces to shift their focus to the south, enabling Ukrainian forces to launch localized but highly effective counterattacks in the Izyum area.[2] Russian milbloggers voiced concern that this Ukrainian counterattack seeks to cut ground lines of communication (GLOCs) to Russian rear areas in Kupyansk and Izyum, which would allow Ukrainian troops to isolate the Russian groupings in these areas and retake large swaths of territory.[3] These milbloggers used largely panicked and despondent tones, acknowledged significant Ukrainian gains, and claimed that the Ukrainian counteroffensive in the south may be a distraction from the ongoing actions in Kharkiv Oblast, which they name as the main Ukrainian effort.[4] The level of shock and frank discussion of Ukrainian successes by Russian milbloggers speaks to the scale of surprise achieved by Ukrainian forces, which is likely successfully demoralizing Russian forces. While it is unlikely that the southern counteroffensive and effort to attrit Russian forces in southern Ukraine is a feint for renewed operations in Kharkiv Oblast, Ukrainian forces likely took prudent advantage of a reallocation of Russian troops, equipment, and overall operational focus to launch localized counteroffensives toward critical points in Kharkiv Oblast. The Ukraininan forces in this area have conducted several successful counterattacks over the course of the war. Ukraine was smart to let them seize the initiative and exploit Russia's weakness. Even if it doesn't manage to completely isolate Izyum, it's gotta be confusing the hell out of the Russians.
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Sep 8, 2022 04:07
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slurm posted:Unless something historically unusual is happening we should expect Ukrainian losses several times higher, correct? Yes and no; it's really impossible to tell at the moment. By some accounts, they absolutely are: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/09/07/ukraine-kherson-offensive-casualties-ammunition/ quote:“We lost five people for every one they did,” said Ihor, a 30-year-old platoon commander who injured his back when the tank he was riding in crashed into a ditch. Notably, the soldiers interviewed are all completely green, and it sounds like they had the misfortune of running into an experienced and coordinated Russian unit. But by other accounts, they aren't doing too badly at the macro level: https://www.economist.com/europe/2022/09/04/ukraine-is-losing-fewer-soldiers-in-its-counter-offensive-than-russia-claims quote:A visit to the city on September 3rd showed those claims to be untrue. Long queues outside blood-donation clinics did suggest a degree of local trepidation. But there was no panic at any of the city’s morgues. The city’s hospitals are closed to the press: a Russian missile strike near one of them overnight offered clues as to why. But a doctor working at the main emergency unit said he was seeing between 15-30 injured soldiers a day. “More than usual, but not our worst nightmare.”
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Sep 8, 2022 04:15
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