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The CG videos and some of the early pre-war false flag videos really show the value of background actors and 5 lines or less actors who are competent.
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Sep 9, 2022 13:53
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Charlz Guybon posted:That turn south! Oh Jesus, they're putting the squeeze on with one flank protected by the river... can i say Pocket? 
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Sep 9, 2022 14:05
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Charlz Guybon posted:Russians at the beginning had 190,000 in Ukraine at most and it's been downhill since then. Russians too have sent more forces to the theater after the war began and haven't stopped recruiting despite not mobilising. What is the total number now is anyone's guess but it's more than just [initial headcount-casualties].
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Sep 9, 2022 14:13
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Just Another Lurker posted:Oh Jesus, they're putting the squeeze on with one flank protected by the river... can i say Pocket? Yuuuup that's a problematic pocket for Russia. At this speed they pretty much have to decide right now to pull back all troops at Izyum or risk being bagged.
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Sep 9, 2022 14:31
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Uh, “the situation in region is difficult, non-trivial… the city is sufficiently safe” is not the strongest statement in Russian PR speak. Listen, Im cautious too because I remember how the Ukrainian offensive in 2014 ended, but this is a shift from "operation is going as planned, destroyed 1500 nationalists" or "shelling of donetsk schools intensifies" which was the official line from the press until recently.
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Sep 9, 2022 15:19
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It is done. This is the beginning of the end of this imperial misadventure. Ukrainian flag will fly in Melitopol by September 9th 2023, or I will donate 50 euros to a charity or the Ukrainian state.
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Sep 9, 2022 15:21
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You're being way too optimistic. I'd guesstimate Oct 1. Regardless, I can't see how Russia can keep this up for much longer.
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Sep 9, 2022 15:25
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FishBulbia posted:Listen, Im cautious too because I remember how the Ukrainian offensive in 2014 ended, but this is a shift from "operation is going as planned, destroyed 1500 nationalists" or "shelling of donetsk schools intensifies" which was the official line from the press until recently. I’m just providing a bit more translation context for everyone else, didn’t mean that as a commentary on your post or anything. My current perspective on situation there is that Russians have been caught pulling their pants up, but that’s about it - I doubt they’ll leave this without a response in force, but I likewise know neither of their disposition in the region, nor the plans or toll taken of Ukrainian battle group.
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Sep 9, 2022 15:25
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Keisari posted:It is done. This is the beginning of the end of this imperial misadventure. Toxx registered, charity will be of admins’ choosing, if it comes to it.
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Sep 9, 2022 15:27
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Keisari posted:It is done. This is the beginning of the end of this imperial misadventure. I see this as analogous to D-Day. We now know how this war is going to end, and it will be sooner than we used to think. Russia probably still has a Battle of the Bulge or two left in them, but the trend is clear.
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Sep 9, 2022 15:29
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Brave New World posted:You're being way too optimistic. I'd guesstimate Oct 1. Regardless, I can't see how Russia can keep this up for much longer. He said 2023, this will either end this winter or enter a frozen stationary period the next 3 months will be decisive.
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Sep 9, 2022 15:35
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https://twitter.com/davekeating/status/1568226599438356481
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Sep 9, 2022 15:35
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Here's a fun animated map https://twitter.com/antiputler_news/status/1568239880487960576
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Sep 9, 2022 15:35
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Dreissi posted:No vehicles only stairs. Ukraine is protected.
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Sep 9, 2022 15:38
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Kavros posted:Ukraine is protected. An ancient callback, to a gentler time.
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Sep 9, 2022 15:53
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Brave New World posted:You're being way too optimistic. I'd guesstimate Oct 1. Regardless, I can't see how Russia can keep this up for much longer. To me it seems that the milita/conscripts from the so-called republics are the ones taking the most losses on the Russian side so far in the offensive. At least this is the impression i get from the POW videos and pictures of destroyed equipment i've seen so far. Part of me fears that this latest offensive by the Ukranians is not hitting the russians as hard as it might look. Ugh, I dont know what to believe anymore. I keep getting too emotionally invested in this conflict, and the last week have been a wild ride. I hope the Ukranians can keep up the momentum, and that this might be the early signs of some real change in the war. But again I fear it might be too little, and that it will return to a grindfest as soon as the offensive meets regular russian forces.
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Sep 9, 2022 16:04
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lilljonas posted:Yuuuup that's a problematic pocket for Russia. At this speed they pretty much have to decide right now to pull back all troops at Izyum or risk being bagged. Might already be bagged. There are now reports from Russian telegram that there are Ukrainians in Oskil city, at the south end of the reservoir. If true, the Ukrainians hold every road out of Izium. Now the question is, if Russia counterattacks south from Kupyansk, will UA hold?
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Sep 9, 2022 16:06
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If this gets real bad, does Putin have the political strength to declare general mobilization, and if he does how do we think this will effect the course of the war?
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Sep 9, 2022 16:09
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GyverMac posted:To me it seems that the milita/conscripts from the so-called republics are the ones taking the most losses on the Russian side so far in the offensive. At least this is the impression i get from the POW videos and pictures of destroyed equipment i've seen so far. Part of me fears that this latest offensive by the Ukranians is not hitting the russians as hard as it might look. This isn't an indication that Russia have cleverly hidden all their real forces somewhere away from the front and are biding their time waiting to strike. What you're seeing are the real forces. The bulk of the Russian forces in Ukraine that weren't used to re-enforce Kherson are conscripted L/DNR militias with minimal training or support. The Kherson trap worked perfectly to drain all the elite forces away from the east. This is what the bulk of the Russian army looks like after 6 months of smashing itself against Ukraine. Chalks fucked around with this message at 16:12 on Sep 9, 2022 |
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Sep 9, 2022 16:09
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From Moscow Times: Russia's FSB security service said Friday it had arrested three suspects after foiling an attempt to set fire to a military building near St. Petersburg. Attacks on military buildings have multiplied since the Kremlin launched a military campaign in Ukraine in February. The FSB said three residents of the city of Vyborg, about 140 kilometers (85 miles) north of St. Petersburg, had "tried to set an administrative building belonging to the Defense Ministry on fire." An investigation was launched over an "attempted terrorist attack" — a crime carrying heavy prison sentences.
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Sep 9, 2022 16:15
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The Russians in Izyum seem to be hardened veterans, not green conscripts.
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Sep 9, 2022 16:16
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khwarezm posted:If this gets real bad, does Putin have the political strength to declare general mobilization, and if he does how do we think this will effect the course of the war? I don't know how well they could equip a general mobilization. They're heavily sanctioned without the means to build new armored vehicles, unlike Ukraine which has effectively unlimited industrial capacity thanks to foreign aid. They're already unmothballing ancient tanks and fighting vehicles to bring to the combat zone, and that's without a general mob.
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Sep 9, 2022 16:16
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Tuna-Fish posted:Might already be bagged. There are now reports from Russian telegram that there are Ukrainians in Oskil city, at the south end of the reservoir. If true, the Ukrainians hold every road out of Izium. Now the question is, if Russia counterattacks south from Kupyansk, will UA hold? The forces in Kupyansk probably more concerned with not being driven back themselves than counter attacking right now, from what it sounds like.
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Sep 9, 2022 16:17
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Toxx registered, charity will be of admins’ choosing, if it comes to it. Thanks! Right, of course. My first toxx. I posted x days/weeks ago that Russian army is at some point going to just collapse. I am convinced with all I've heard about the Russian army up to this point that they really are a looks-focused army, as in being genuinely effective is not important, but looking good to superiors and obeying orders. But this is of course something probably all of us here know and has been posted about before. So, Russians keep doing stupid and/or insane poo poo because their incompetent and/or drunk generals told them so, as they were selected for loyalty and not merits. So, as we've seen they end up attacking and conquering land at any cost, taking horrible losses as this goes on. Ukraine's logical counterplay is of course to not try to hold every inch of land, but to bleed the enemy as much as possible while giving a bit of ground. To bend, but not break, and hulk the gently caress up and prepare and wait until the enemy is starting to weaken. And they've done this. So what it has looked to us is Russia gaining ground and seeming to be doing much better than they really are. But, at some point it reaches a critical point where it just collapses spectacularly as they wear their army out. And, once the Russian front takes even one catastrophe, the morale is gone for good. Plus, they've spent all their men and machines taking ground instead of grinding enemy resources, you don't have them either. And so it collapses like a hollowed out pile of poo poo. This could be the first sign of that collapse, or it could just be a tantalizing taste of things to come.
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Sep 9, 2022 16:17
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Chalks posted:This isn't an indication that Russia have cleverly hidden all their real forces somewhere away from the front and are biding their time waiting to strike. What you're seeing are the real forces. The bulk of the Russian forces in Ukraine that weren't used to re-enforce Kherson are conscripted L/DNR militias with minimal training or support. It is possible they have better trained troops, but they are on the southern front. It is likely these troops are engaged, or unable to redeploy without losing Kherson. The lack of any sizeable reserve is going to make this incredibly difficult for Russia to stop this offensive now that it is well behind the front. Everything they do will be too little and too late, and also weakens the southern front. Crow Buddy fucked around with this message at 16:26 on Sep 9, 2022 |
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Sep 9, 2022 16:21
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GyverMac posted:To me it seems that the milita/conscripts from the so-called republics are the ones taking the most losses on the Russian side so far in the offensive. At least this is the impression i get from the POW videos and pictures of destroyed equipment i've seen so far. Part of me fears that this latest offensive by the Ukranians is not hitting the russians as hard as it might look. Destroyed equipment would be predominantly for Russian regulars, rather than proxy forces or people press-ganged into “conscription. The most popular POW video from the Kharkiv offensive are has a few people from a literal police SWAT unit from Russia. If I had to guess, the rest is also primarily Russian regulars, as far as firepower exceeding a rifle is concerned, since they were very keen on sending people from “LDNR” into every meat grinder they could find, in the earlier months. khwarezm posted:If this gets real bad, does Putin have the political strength to declare general mobilization, and if he does how do we think this will effect the course of the war? He definitely has the strength to declare a general mobilisation, but the political price he ends up paying for it and the effect it will bear on the situation on the ground are open questions.
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Sep 9, 2022 16:22
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I’m curious what the internal calculus for and against surrender must look like for Russian soldiers in the affected areas at this point.
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Sep 9, 2022 16:23
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The X-man cometh posted:The Russians in Izyum seem to be hardened veterans, not green conscripts. You’re correct. What you speak in reference to seem to have been primarily addressed at the forces standing the way throughout the current advance on Kupyansk, rather than those stationed further south at the main Dobas frontline.
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Sep 9, 2022 16:25
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If Russia went to general mobilization they could probably equip such an army, but I'm not convinced they could reliably supply it in the field.
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Sep 9, 2022 16:28
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Discendo Vox posted:I’m curious what the internal calculus for and against surrender must look like for Russian soldiers in the affected areas at this point. The ones from the poorer eastern regions probably have 0 information about what's going on, where they are, or who they are fighting. If they believe that they're fighting nazis they're probably hesitant to surrender thinking they'll be executed and might be the ones that would rather risk walking back across the Russian border as civilians. The ones with more info, who knows what they're thinking. Doesn't seem like there are mass surrenders yet besides the PoW videos we see which are usually 2-3 people. Unfortunately, most of the social media reports I've seen around this topic are Russian soldiers complaining to their command about wanting to leave or cancel their contracts, getting told "no", and then going "welp guess I'll just die here then".
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Sep 9, 2022 16:32
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Does Ukraine have the forces in that area to backfill the territory they've just taken? Hoping they don't push too far and get enveloped themselves
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Sep 9, 2022 16:34
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Ynglaur posted:If Russia went to general mobilization they could probably equip such an army, but I'm not convinced they could reliably supply it in the field. I am curious if part of the reluctance to general mobilization for them is knowing what they would be equipping with. I know I would be pretty upset if my country drafted me and equipped me with one boot, a jammed Mosin and a helmet that dents when I knock it off a bench.
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Sep 9, 2022 16:36
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Rockker posted:Does Ukraine have the forces in that area to backfill the territory they've just taken? Hoping they don't push too far and get enveloped themselves We don’t know, but it would suck rear end to hold from the perspective of being shot by artillery from 85 directions. If they can destroy or evict the Russian battle group of Izyum, that becomes much more simpler.
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Sep 9, 2022 16:38
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Crow Buddy posted:I am curious if part of the reluctance to general mobilization for them is knowing what they would be equipping with. I know I would be pretty upset if my country drafted me and equipped me with one boot, a jammed Mosin and a helmet that dents when I knock it off a bench. I think the reluctance comes from that fact that a general mobilization would be telling the Russia public that everything is going to poo poo in Ukraine, which could really hurt Putin.
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Sep 9, 2022 16:43
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Russia spent its best hardware and soldiers during the first months of the war. There's very little to mobilize with.
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Sep 9, 2022 16:46
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Does Russia even have the training capacity to handle a general mobilisation? A lot of their elite troops and officers in general have been getting picked off. What are they going to send, a wave of recruits they trained wrong, as a joke? Ukraine has a 6-month headstart on mobilisation, plus those recruits can get trained in NATO countries. Russia would have to deploy and supply a lot of troops incredibly fast to make a decisive difference at this point.
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Sep 9, 2022 16:48
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With hindsight, it was probably a suboptimal idea to send all the security forces paramilitaries to die in literally the first wave into Kyiv before having to make the decision on whether to put guns in the hands of a few hundred thousand people who really don't want to die for your dumb war of choice.
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Sep 9, 2022 16:49
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nimby posted:Does Russia even have the training capacity to handle a general mobilisation? A lot of their elite troops and officers in general have been getting picked off. What are they going to send, a wave of recruits they trained wrong, as a joke? I remember some negatively trending analysis that went into particulars of instructor availability for RuAF a couple of months ago, but I doubt I’ll be able to find it. If I had to guess, they unlikely have major problems to prepare junior officers, as that’s standard academy fare, but I wouldn’t be surprised if someone told me that they’re experiencing an acute shortage of instructors, practice partners, and other staff positions relevant to imposing the skills necessary for the parts where they shoot people or get shot.
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Sep 9, 2022 16:54
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Crow Buddy posted:I am curious if part of the reluctance to general mobilization for them is knowing what they would be equipping with. I know I would be pretty upset if my country drafted me and equipped me with one boot, a jammed Mosin and a helmet that dents when I knock it off a bench. YOU GET RADIO NOW, COMRADE! https://twitter.com/CaptainBlackSe1/status/1567856756373454851
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Sep 9, 2022 17:00
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I think it was back in May or June but weren't the Russians so desperate for skilled and trained personnel that they were sending at least some instructors to the front to fight? Word of that kind've died out but if true that short term focused move could turn out to be a long term nasty error.
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Sep 9, 2022 17:03
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