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I thought FEAR had too much disconnect between the near-future sci-fi shooter bits and the spooky horror bits (apart from anything else, it just didn't seem right that most of the enemies in a horror game were just regular old tacticool special-ops soldiers with nothing weird and exotic about their actual in-game behaviour), and I wasn't keen on how it had smart AI that you could mostly only react to in dumb ways - they were so much better at using cover than you were, for a start.
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Sep 26, 2022 14:15
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Is it a good thing to be paid in dollars right now?
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Sep 26, 2022 14:19
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Tesseraction posted:In light hearted news, lead singer of the Stone Roses turned up to his gig half-way through the designated set time without a band https://twitter.com/ladbible/status/1574344515053408256 Funny because I was at the Stone Roses last show. We were left outside the arena in the snow for hours, black grape got arrested and didn't show. The stone roses drimmer had already quit the band, Brown shuffled on in a mask, drunken mumbled for 2 mins into the microphone, shambled off and then John Squire ended up stood there on his own doing a half hour guitar solo.
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Sep 26, 2022 14:23
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josh04 posted:I've been telling people I didn't expect Truss to last particularly long but I can't say I was expecting this. Very funny that they ran that huge leadership contest with TV debates and pundits and all that and the prize might be getting an Admiral Dönitz-length term. I was honestly thinking she wouldn't last 9 months but it seemed too absurd but to think I might have been too generous. Necrothatcher posted:Is it a good thing to be paid in dollars right now? I'm currently finding "Yes" but in practise when everything else gets more expensive to compensate then probably "No"; but the number you're getting post conversion is certainly higher than before yes.
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Sep 26, 2022 14:23
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forkboy84 posted:https://twitter.com/tomhfh/status/1574324243243929600?t=yJqLGxm3_BW2tEcTfCpcMw&s=19 Rarity posted:It was pretty average, the mid 00s was a rough time for shooters not named Half-Life
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Sep 26, 2022 14:26
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I've been reading about how Argentina used to be one of the world's richest nations but spiraled into permanent crisis and decline due to decades of chaotic government mismanagement and, well, I'm feeling pretty Argentinian these days.
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Sep 26, 2022 14:27
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Darth Walrus posted:I thought FEAR had too much disconnect between the near-future sci-fi shooter bits and the spooky horror bits (apart from anything else, it just didn't seem right that most of the enemies in a horror game were just regular old tacticool special-ops soldiers with nothing weird and exotic about their actual in-game behaviour), and I wasn't keen on how it had smart AI that you could mostly only react to in dumb ways - they were so much better at using cover than you were, for a start. I find the gear change between shooty and spooky so harsh you can almost hear it, to be kind of endearing but yeah it's not a perfect game, I think I mostly like it becuse there's nothing quite like it and it does some things that I think were quite unique at the time and still are quite interesting. Pistol_Pete posted:I've been reading about how Argentina used to be one of the world's richest nations but spiraled into permanent crisis and decline due to decades of chaotic government mismanagement and, well, I'm feeling pretty Argentinian these days. The dialectical synthesis of the falklands problem.
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Sep 26, 2022 14:28
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https://twitter.com/georgeeaton/status/1574381374525652993?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw lol https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1574373665571045376
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Sep 26, 2022 14:29
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Necrothatcher posted:Is it a good thing to be paid in dollars right now? Yes? Right now anyway, if your wage was fixed a few months ago at least.
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Sep 26, 2022 14:36
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OK, walk me through this. Why is bond yields getting more profitable a sign of economic meltdown, and what mechanism makes them more profitable? Not a section of macroeconomics I'm super versed in.
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Sep 26, 2022 14:36
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Private Speech posted:Yes? Right now anyway, if your wage was fixed a few months ago at least. I'm getting a couple of grand paid to me in dollars in two weeks. Huh, is this a taste of what it feels like to be a city wanker...
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Sep 26, 2022 14:42
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Darth Walrus posted:OK, walk me through this. Why is bond yields getting more profitable a sign of economic meltdown, and what mechanism makes them more profitable? Not a section of macroeconomics I'm super versed in. Apparently it means people are willing to take a loss to get rid of them because they believe the interest rate is going up.
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Sep 26, 2022 14:43
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E: nm
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Sep 26, 2022 14:44
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Darth Walrus posted:OK, walk me through this. Why is bond yields getting more profitable a sign of economic meltdown, and what mechanism makes them more profitable? Not a section of macroeconomics I'm super versed in. I think the idea is that they expect the government to be forced to put up their interest rates by a huge margin to stop everything from completely collapsing which means devaluing the money but if you own a bond it's going to pay back a big return.
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Sep 26, 2022 14:44
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Right, so just to be clear, bonds are free-market goods, yeah? They're little pieces of government debt that you can buy and sell to each other?
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Sep 26, 2022 14:47
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The way a bond works is you give it to someone now for £1000, with the promise that after the time is up (1 yr, 5yrs, 10yrs) you have to pay them back the £1000 plus whatever the yield percent was when they bought it. This is the underpinning of how government debts work. If the yield is higher, it means confidence in the government/economy is low so they want higher reward for their risk.
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Sep 26, 2022 14:50
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I wonder how many no-confidence letters have been submitted to Graham Brady today
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Sep 26, 2022 14:51
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Tesseraction posted:The way a bond works is you give it to someone now for £1000, with the promise that after the time is up (1 yr, 5yrs, 10yrs) you have to pay them back the £1000 plus whatever the yield percent was when they bought it. This is the underpinning of how government debts work. And this is markets asking for this from the Bank of England, is it? Or just from each other, with the increased demand for potentially high-interest bonds naturally driving up the sale price between private buyers and sellers?
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Sep 26, 2022 14:53
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Darth Walrus posted:OK, walk me through this. Why is bond yields getting more profitable a sign of economic meltdown, and what mechanism makes them more profitable? Not a section of macroeconomics I'm super versed in. you give the government 100 and get your money back plus a few percent after X years if you think the government is economically incompetent then they need to up the rate to convince you to give them your money the government wants this money to spend (although it prints its own money anyway so really it’s a way for large pension funds and banks to put money somewhere and do stuff with)
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Sep 26, 2022 14:55
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Darth Walrus posted:And this is markets asking for this from the Bank of England, is it? Or just from each other, with the increased demand for potentially high-interest bonds naturally driving up the sale price between private buyers and sellers? The government issues the bonds. When you're doing it privately it's just stocks and shares, basically.
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Sep 26, 2022 14:57
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God money is just a load of made up wank isn't jt
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Sep 26, 2022 14:58
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Ah, so the BOE is having to up the yield of bonds in order to address crashing demand for their products? I'm just trying to pin down the exact mechanism that's making the numbers go up.
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Sep 26, 2022 14:58
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The Wicked ZOGA posted:God money is just a load of made up wank isn't jt Yes, absolutely
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Sep 26, 2022 15:04
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Nothingtoseehere posted:Buy to let landlords are as hosed by interest rate hikes as homeowners are - possibly more, as banks do reguard them as riskier and tend to have higher rates.
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Sep 26, 2022 15:05
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Darth Walrus posted:Ah, so the BOE is having to up the yield of bonds in order to address crashing demand for their products? In principle it's because like with any investment it's a risk - what if they go bankrupt / default on their debt and can't pay you back?! But in practise for large countries like ours it's basically unthinkable. So for instance our 10 year is about 4.1%, whereas Sri Lanka, who are in economic turmoil, are at 26%
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Sep 26, 2022 15:07
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The Wicked ZOGA posted:God money is just a load of made up wank isn't jt Yes. Money is basically the number one example of a social construct.
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Sep 26, 2022 15:08
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Can't wait to get on the housing market once the bubble implodes killing everyone in its wake https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/1574311325655867396
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Sep 26, 2022 15:10
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a pipe smoking dog posted:Yes. Money is basically the number one example of a social construct. Mind you, it's also a very helpful demonstration of how social constructs are real and can gently caress you up.
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Sep 26, 2022 15:11
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Important to remember that UK treasury bonds are called gilts because they were gilded to sure they were as good as gold in terms of security. Obviously if they are trading the same as Greek treasury bonds then that's no longer the case.
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Sep 26, 2022 15:12
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https://twitter.com/benjameslucas/status/1574384669294039042
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Sep 26, 2022 15:13
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Darth Walrus posted:Ah, so the BOE is having to up the yield of bonds in order to address crashing demand for their products? You've got it. Bond yields are seen as either a mechanism for fundraising, so the % reflects the risk you won't be paid back by the state, or as a safe reserve for investment, where the % represents the risk of currency collapse Vs the risk of market collapse. The second framing handily explains why negative yield bonds are a thing in developed countries with overheated markets - when you've got a bunch of 9 figure companies who literally don't produce anything including services, capital puts money with the state to insure against the inevitable pop. So what's happening now is that investors believe that any money stored with the UK government is pure opportunity cost with no risk mitigation, due to the certainty of further devaluation.
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Sep 26, 2022 15:16
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Darth Walrus posted:Ah, so the BOE is having to up the yield of bonds in order to address crashing demand for their products? The yield on bonds (hereafter 'gilts') depends on the current market value of the gilt and they are inversely proportional to one another. The UK government issues gilts at a nominal value (£100) and they pay a certain interest rate - called the coupon- - to holders of the gilt (say, 2%, meaning you get £2 each year for holding a £100 gilt). The government will always pay the coupon rate based on the nominal value but the gilts can be resold and can sell at different values on the open market. The yield is calculated as the coupon (interest rate on the bond) divided by price paid for a gilt (not the nominal value). So - hypothetically: The govt issues a £100 gilt Someone buys it Demand for gilts drops and it's bought by the next person for £90. That person paid £90 to get 2% on the nominal value of £100, so the gilt yield has increased. Conversely, if gilt demand was high, they might resell for, say, £110 and the gilt yield would be lower. Gilt yields are going up now because more people are selling them on the open market and the price to buy UK government debt is effectively getting cheaper, so the effective yield is increasing. There are lots of reasons for this but one is that UK govt. debt is being seen as a riskier investment. This is all a problem for the Treasury because newly-issued gilt coupons will need to match, or at least compete with, the existing gilt yields to have any chance of selling. edit: The long-winded point I was making really is that the BOE isn't (directly) manually tweaking the gilt yield, rather the Invisible Hand of the Market is doing that. edit 2: Actually, probably more important than UK government debt being risky is that rising interest rates tend to increase gilt yields too (i.e. people sell gilts to move into other assets with a higher rate of return). oxford_town fucked around with this message at 15:27 on Sep 26, 2022 |
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Sep 26, 2022 15:19
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Tesseraction posted:Can't wait to get on the housing market once the bubble implodes killing everyone in its wake Currently sitting doing sums to figure if it's worth paying the early repayment charge to quickly change my mortgage from 1.5% to 4% 
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Sep 26, 2022 15:19
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Bonds have a fixed coupon that doesn’t change, but until they mature you can sell them on the open market for whatever price people are willing to pay for them. This demand is affected by a number of things, including inflation expectations, time until maturity, coupons until maturity, etc. So, the price can change, but the money you get each month does not. This means that when bond prices fall (demand for govt debt goes down) the yield (coupon return a year as a percentage of current market value) implicitly goes up to reach a level that the market deems the debt attractive again. Understanding how central banks set rates is a very complicated subject and requires understanding how the private banking system works at a fundamental level. But, in a nutshell, when the BoE wants to set interest rates, what they are actually influencing is the overnight rate that banks lend to each other in the overnight market. This rate is based on the risk free rate, i.e the yield obtained from govt debt, the safest debt in the country. To do this the BoE bids up and down the price of govt debt on the open market until it reaches a yield that it is happy with. When the risk free rate changes, the price of debt changes across the board, why lend to a homeowner at 4% when you can lend to the government for 4% and no risk? So the cost of a mortgage goes up. This new yield also affects the issuance of new government debt, the government has to offer a higher coupon to match the targeted yield or else nobody, not even the BoE, will buy the debt. It’s still much more complicated than that, but that is basically how bond prices and yields are related to the BoE.
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Sep 26, 2022 15:35
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Cracking time for me to want to buy a place, things are on a cliff edge and there's no guarantee that anyone has the basic competence let alone the will to stop it. And every place I look at says "comes with tenant in situ!  " And it's like, gently caress, I can't even buy somewhere without forcibly turfing someone out of their home, or I guess committing to being a landlord for a while. 
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Sep 26, 2022 15:41
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qhat posted:Bond stuff. One thing I’m not sure the answer to but you might - is the yield for a given maturity date the same regardless of the initial bond length? So is a “new” 5Y bond priced the same as a 10Y bond half way through which expires on the same date?
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Sep 26, 2022 15:42
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oxford_town posted:The yield on bonds (hereafter 'gilts') depends on the current market value of the gilt and they are inversely proportional to one another. Ahh, so yields go up when the sale price of bonds goes down, because you're paying less for better returns. The value of U.K. bonds tanking on the open market as potential buyers lose confidence in the economy makes perfect sense.
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Sep 26, 2022 15:45
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forkboy84 posted:Preparation. Mental illness. Who knows? If you do end up reading it, please post some pages/commentary so we can all benefit from the wisdom it contains
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Sep 26, 2022 15:47
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Niric posted:If you do end up reading it, please post some pages/commentary so we can all benefit from the wisdom it contains Someone already posted a dodgy site that has it https://www.pdfdrive.com/britannia-unchained-global-lessons-for-growth-and-prosperity-d188347433.html
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Sep 26, 2022 15:52
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Darth Walrus posted:Ahh, so yields go up when the sale price of bonds goes down, because you're paying less for better returns. The value of U.K. bonds tanking on the open market as potential buyers lose confidence in the economy makes perfect sense. In terms of the relation between bond price and yield - yep. qhat's explanation of how they change is more nuanced (and correct) than mine, including detailing the BoE role which I got wrong.
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Sep 26, 2022 15:53
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