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Doctor_Fruitbat posted:And every place I look at says "comes with tenant in situ! On the bright side does this herald that BTL landlords are bailing while they can?
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Sep 26, 2022 15:54
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" And it's like, gently caress, I can't even buy somewhere without forcibly turfing someone out of their home, or I guess committing to being a landlord for a while. 
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Well poo poo, I didn't expect this all to happen so fast.
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Sep 26, 2022 15:59
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What effect will the death of the Queen and the falling value of the pound have on the value of my Bison Dollars?
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Sep 26, 2022 16:00
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I trust that the pod will discuss some choice nuggets from that book if they turn out to be suitably hilarious/idiotic.
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Sep 26, 2022 16:01
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Lotta British political pundits suddenly very horny for the new definitely not fascist Italian PM.
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Sep 26, 2022 16:01
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Doctor_Fruitbat posted:I trust that the pod will discuss some choice nuggets from that book if they turn out to be suitably hilarious/idiotic. I mean the excerpt posted by the goon who found it had it randomly open a chapter talking about Congresswoman Giffords being shot in the head. How that helps Britannia unchain is beyond me.
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Sep 26, 2022 16:02
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keep punching joe posted:Lotta British political pundits suddenly very horny for the new definitely not fascist Italian PM. Gagging for that Pussolini
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Sep 26, 2022 16:02
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Darth Walrus posted:Ah, so the BOE is having to up the yield of bonds in order to address crashing demand for their products? The BOE creates new bonds periodically and auctions them off to primary dealer banks; the banks then resell them on a secondary market directly or fold them into other products which are sold onwards. The face value of the bond (the amount it can be redeemed for at maturity) the maturity (the date it can be redeemed) and the coupon (the interest you get for being the bearer of it) on a particular bond are fixed, hence 'fixed income' products; but the bond itself has a price (i.e. what someone else will pay you to be the bearer of it tomorrow), this value is set in the secondary market and fluctuates with events. As the price of the bond goes up and down the yield on it increases and decreases in step; you can then average across the whole market to create a value for the yield on a whole class of bonds e.g. 10Y maturity gilts or w/e It's the movement within the secondary market that consitutes 'gilts spiking' or what have you. Government debt has not increased (yet), but when they come to the next auction they'll have to offer more attractive bonds (i.e. more expensive for the gov) or the primary dealer banks won't want to buy them becasue there is less profit to be made reselling them. Government debt then go up->economy collapse frowny faces all round edit: bollocks i typed all of that and someone has allready written a better more correct response lol
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Sep 26, 2022 16:05
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William Bear posted:What effect will the death of the Queen and the falling value of the pound have on the value of my Bison Dollars?
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Sep 26, 2022 16:05
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Pantsmaster Bill posted:One thing I’m not sure the answer to but you might - is the yield for a given maturity date the same regardless of the initial bond length? So is a “new” 5Y bond priced the same as a 10Y bond half way through which expires on the same date? They both compete for a similar type of investor, if that’s what you mean. They may not be the same price or even yield though, because a bond that sells at a steeper discount to its face value has built in price appreciation in it, so someone might want to pay more for that than just a simple “bond has half yield so price must be half” which isn’t entirely how they get valued. qhat fucked around with this message at 16:11 on Sep 26, 2022 |
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Sep 26, 2022 16:08
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At the risk of sounding callous, if this leads to a crash in the housing market, wouldn’t that be a long-overdue, much-needed thing? Is there any way to even achieve that without some human misery among current property owners? I appreciate there is a difference between having an underwater mortgage that you can still afford payments on, e.g. if a massive expansion in supply led to the devaluation of your home, vs your mortgage becoming unaffordable and losing the roof over your head. But I personally don’t think the government ought to have a higher moral obligation to people who already own (part of) their homes.
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Sep 26, 2022 16:13
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Halisnacks posted:At the risk of sounding callous, if this leads to a crash in the housing market, wouldn’t that be a long-overdue, much-needed thing? Is there any way to even achieve that without some human misery among current property owners? If the market seriously crashes then everyone with a mortgage is gonna be camped out in their underwater home unable to sell under any condition, renters are gonna get passed the bill by landlords trying to get back above water and first time buyers will be out-competed by international capital willing to pay cash down above (the now very cheap) market prices to buy up everything with the intent of getting into the slum landlord business in a big way It might be feel good to see the Daily Mail set and small-time tyrant landlords get crushed but it will not play in the favour of the first time buyer or the renter either.
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Sep 26, 2022 16:20
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Halisnacks posted:At the risk of sounding callous, if this leads to a crash in the housing market, wouldn’t that be a long-overdue, much-needed thing? Is there any way to even achieve that without some human misery among current property owners? Prices might dip, but they won't collapse completely. There's still the supply side limitations (no one building houses), if you've got a bit of cash to spend they've just announced a stamp duty cut on any purchase which might make you keen to get in on renting to these new homeless masses, and the pound is cheap anyway so doubly so if you're an overseas property investor. That's right, they picked the worst policy combinations possible in this respect as well.
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Sep 26, 2022 16:22
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Halisnacks posted:At the risk of sounding callous, if this leads to a crash in the housing market, wouldn’t that be a long-overdue, much-needed thing? Is there any way to even achieve that without some human misery among current property owners? While it's going to be hilarious watching all the buy-to-let boomers finally encounter risk in their 'investments', there's going to be a significant number of regular homeowners who face significantly increased mortgage, energy, and general living costs on top of possible job losses in a new recession. Under the current government there won't be any support for them. There's a reason stamp duty was cut alongside increasing income for the <1%. The end result will be lots of foreclosed properties being snapped up by the big landlords - the ones that can pay cash - and a step further away from a chance at private home ownership for another generation.
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Sep 26, 2022 16:25
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xtothez posted:While it's going to be hilarious watching all the buy-to-let boomers finally encounter risk in their 'investments' most of them will immediatly pass those costs on to their tennants and if/when the local market cannot sustain any more sell at a moderate loss to an institutional cash buyer a few who took absurd risks will get blown up but most will only end up poorer in a notional sense
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Sep 26, 2022 16:33
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I guess I don’t think that even “regular homeowners” should have their housing costs insulated by actively managed down interest rates while renters’ interests aren’t similarly protected. In an ideal world both groups would receive some sort of government support, but in order of their vulnerability: 1. Renters: significant protection as the rate of their return on their accommodation costs is already 0% 2. Regular homeowners: significantly less generous protection as they have, at the very least, invested in some equity which makes them much less vulnerable in a downturn compared to the renter class 3. Buy-to-let landlords: zero protection, gently caress em
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Sep 26, 2022 16:36
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4. Institutional and hereditary landlords: Death by guillotine
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Sep 26, 2022 16:38
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Sep 26, 2022 16:40
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no
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Sep 26, 2022 16:42
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Halisnacks posted:At the risk of sounding callous, if this leads to a crash in the housing market, wouldn’t that be a long-overdue, much-needed thing? Is there any way to even achieve that without some human misery among current property owners? Yes, a housing market correction is long, long overdue. But because the bubble has been allowed to grow so big it's going to horrendous when it does pop. People who have paid off their mortgage will be fine obviously. But banks will poo poo themselves and stop lending. The only people able to buy at the new lower prices will be loving hedgefunds, very large landlords and individuals who have large cash reserves. Much like everything in Britain, any positives will be outweighed by the negatives.
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Sep 26, 2022 16:42
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xtothez posted:While it's going to be hilarious watching all the buy-to-let boomers finally encounter risk in their 'investments', Probably worth recognising that over the past 10 years the gov (and local councils) have actually taken a lot of good steps to reduce the profitability of BTLs - introduction of the 3% stamp duty second home surcharge (2016), the slashing of mortgage tax relief (2020), stricter HMO licencing criteria and greater penalties for breaching terms, stricter CGT enforcement, etc. But I fear the current lot with their huge 'free market' ideology won't keep up that trend and may even find ways to unpick it.
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Sep 26, 2022 16:42
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There will almost definitely be another leadership contest, and it will inevitably end up being a choice between Rishi and Boris. We are on the hell timeline, so you know who's going to win that one....
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Sep 26, 2022 16:43
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I mean Truss et al. undoing the one thing that gave the Tories an entire generation of loyal voters: housing, would be a fitting way of deleting Thatcher's legacy. Same poo poo happened under him and we had to keep hearing his stupid oval office voice, so no.
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Sep 26, 2022 16:43
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lol the BoE just said "no comment" https://twitter.com/MehreenKhn/status/1574423013776363522
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Sep 26, 2022 16:45
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fuctifino posted:There will almost definitely be another leadership contest, and it will inevitably end up being a choice between Rishi and Boris.
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Sep 26, 2022 16:50
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keep punching joe posted:On the bright side does this herald that BTL landlords are bailing while they can? They've been bailing for awhile. The removal of mortgage tax relief and looming concern the government may require a minimum efficency standard for rental properties in 2025 (which is expensive to retrofit) means a decent number of landlords have been selling up. This is part of why the rental market is currently hot in most urban areas - supply of rental properties isn't been added or reduced, as WFH leads to changes in demand. The problem is, as any look on rightmove shows you, they mostly want to sell to other landlords with a tenant in situ. This minimises risk for the landlord - no need for vacant possession, so no risk of the tenant refusing to leave and the sale falling through, or of evicting the current tenant and the buyer bailing. Unless they are desperate to sell, most are willing to wait for a bigger or institutional landlord to take the property of their hands even if the sale takes longer. Nothingtoseehere fucked around with this message at 17:06 on Sep 26, 2022 |
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Sep 26, 2022 16:54
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Halisnacks posted:I guess I don’t think that even “regular homeowners” should have their housing costs insulated by actively managed down interest rates while renters’ interests aren’t similarly protected. In an ideal world both groups would receive some sort of government support, but in order of their vulnerability: owner-occupiers do not benefit from artificially low rates, they just end up in peonage to absurdly large mortgages for increasingly smaller houses. renters are generally the most vulnerable part of the market and so should have the most protection but this is the tory party who are, to the exclusion of absolutely everything else, the party of the rentier class
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Sep 26, 2022 16:57
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https://twitter.com/SloaneFragment/status/1574365883975319552 Terrible to hear about Darren Grimes. Just in general like.
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Sep 26, 2022 17:04
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Nothingtoseehere posted:They've been bailing for awhile. The removal of mortgage tax relief and looming concern the government may require a minimum efficency standard for rental properties in 2025 (which is expensive to retrofit) means a decent number of landlords have been selling up. This is part of why the rental market is currently hot in most urban areas - supply of rental properties isn't been added or reduced. And that's where rising interest rates and subsequent crippling/unpayable mortgage bills come in! The murder/suicide budget will almost certainly force interest rates way up. You can only have a crash when there are lots of forced sellers in the market; BTL landlords are about to get turbofucked, which is funny and good. Somewhat less good is the fact that everyone else is gonna get hosed along with them.
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Sep 26, 2022 17:04
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So the BOE basically said they weren’t doing anything right now but might in the future. Pound starts to drop again. And things like this are happening: https://twitter.com/DeItaone/status/1574429923082657792?s=20&t=xm7Hl7Y3LPbgwD4rCH406g
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Sep 26, 2022 17:07
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That 'yay for the Doomsday Cult Government/you can totally trust us to do something' BoE statement is going to age poorly. Gilt yields spiking again and I reckon dollar parity this week unless the BoE actually does something. Or Kwateng and Truss commit ritual suicide live on TV. That'd certainly calm the markets.
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Sep 26, 2022 17:11
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Rustybear posted:owner-occupiers do not benefit from artificially low rates, they just end up in peonage to absurdly large mortgages for increasingly smaller houses. How do owner-occupiers not benefit from low rates? Even if those low rates led to massive overvaluations, If they could afford their mortgage at the rate when they bought their home, they could afford their housing costs and build equity simultaneously. That, to me, is benefiting.
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Sep 26, 2022 17:15
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Transitioning from voodoo economics to druidic economics 
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Sep 26, 2022 17:15
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Pantsmaster Bill posted:So the BOE basically said they weren’t doing anything right now but might in the future. Pound starts to drop again. And things like this are happening: Does this mean that they are withdrawing any agreed Mortgage in Principle?
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Sep 26, 2022 17:22
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deletebeepbeepbeep posted:Does this mean that they are withdrawing any agreed Mortgage in Principle? What isn't clear is whether this impacts people that have already applied for a mortgage and are awaiting a decision, and/or those that have received a mortgage offer but have not yet completed on their properties. I would suspect that the latter will be fine, but that the former will potentially be screwed and will have to resubmit new mortgage applications to different lenders.
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Sep 26, 2022 17:26
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gently caress me we're never getting a mortgage at this rate.
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Sep 26, 2022 17:26
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Five different mortgage lenders have done the same now apparently. None of the "big" high street lenders yet, though. I suspect it'll be a temporary thing while they assess the next few days, and await greater certainty on when/if there'll be a BOE rate rise and by how much. EDIT: Includes Halifax now, so some of the big names are doing so too.
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Sep 26, 2022 17:28
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Halisnacks posted:How do owner-occupiers not benefit from low rates? Even if those low rates led to massive overvaluations, If they could afford their mortgage at the rate when they bought their home, they could afford their housing costs and build equity simultaneously. That, to me, is benefiting. sure: massive debt burden + ramped-up exposure to rate rises the fact that they can afford their home is totally orthogonal to the issue. if they can afford to buy in a high price/low rate enviroment then they can almost certainly afford to buy in a low price/high rate enviroment, at least in the latter the debt is inflated away as productivity/income rise (lol)
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Sep 26, 2022 17:29
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Ewan posted:Five different mortgage lenders have done the same now apparently. None of the "big" high street lenders yet, though. Promising sign.
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Sep 26, 2022 17:31
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Ewan posted:Five different mortgage lenders have done the same now apparently. None of the "big" high street lenders yet, though. Yeah this is definitely getting into the cool zone
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Sep 26, 2022 17:48
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