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oh okay then crisis averted https://twitter.com/PriapusIQ/status/1574735437691727873
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Sep 27, 2022 14:37
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Z the IVth posted:You get lung or oro/nasopharyngeal cancers from smoke. Oesophageal is usually uncontrolled reflux but iirc smoke wouldn't contribute mainly cos it doesn't get there. Tobacco smoke is an established risk factor for oesophageal SCC (and, to a lesser extent, adenocarcinomas). I don't think as much research has been done on non-tobacco environmental smoke, e.g. from indoor fires, but there is some stuff our there. You might get a bit of direct exposure (say, large molecules from smoke deposited on the walls of the naso/oropharynx and then swallowed) in the oesophagus, but alternatively entirely possible that there is systemic absorption of carcinogens from biomass smoke, much like how tobacco smoking increases the risk of lots of types of cancer distant from the surfaces exposed to cigarette smoke, such as bladder cancer.
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Sep 27, 2022 14:37
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Failed Imagineer posted:It's always Wet Fart Season on these islands
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Sep 27, 2022 14:45
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Guavanaut posted:Current humidity is 69% already. Contrary to popular reports it is not nice. Niceeeee
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Sep 27, 2022 14:52
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So a Telegraph reporter pretended to be a 14 year old trans kid so they could infiltrate the Mermaids forumsand publish the private conversations of minors. Somehow this is less of a safeguarding issue for them than being taught how to wear a binder
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Sep 27, 2022 14:56
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BTW, all these articles about letters of no-confidence / bangin' vonc / etc are a hopium / copium / psyop, correct?
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Sep 27, 2022 14:57
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oxford_town posted:Tobacco smoke is an established risk factor for oesophageal SCC (and, to a lesser extent, adenocarcinomas). I don't think as much research has been done on non-tobacco environmental smoke, e.g. from indoor fires, but there is some stuff our there. I'm not well read on oesophageal CA beyond the basics but if there was an association wouldn't we see population level changes as the world transitioned off cooking fires onto gas and electric. Conversely you would expect higher rates in communities that did still rely on woodburners. Rural third world and Scandinavia. Is it the case?
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Sep 27, 2022 14:57
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Nationwide's new fixed mortgage rates, these are all circa 2-2.5% higher than they were on Friday with no base rate increase. The Tories have a lot of history for completely changing what they've always believed, but an overnight pivot into crashing the British housing market is wild.
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Sep 27, 2022 14:58
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Only Kindness posted:BTW, all these articles about letters of no-confidence / bangin' vonc / etc are a hopium / copium / psyop, correct? Probably
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Sep 27, 2022 14:59
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peanut- posted:Nationwide's new fixed mortgage rates, these are all circa 2-2.5% higher than they were on Friday with no base rate increase. 
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Sep 27, 2022 15:00
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Tesseraction posted:oh okay then crisis averted https://twitter.com/PriapusIQ/status/1574735437691727873 truss the plan lol
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Sep 27, 2022 15:02
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Only Kindness posted:BTW, all these articles about letters of no-confidence / bangin' vonc / etc are a hopium / copium / psyop, correct? Absolutely, the Tories may uturn on this stupid budget but they won't oust Truss until after the election. They have two more years of looting and sabotage to complete.
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Sep 27, 2022 15:04
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"Economy's dyin', Kwasi." "No, to the contrary"
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Sep 27, 2022 15:06
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Tesseraction posted:oh okay then crisis averted https://twitter.com/PriapusIQ/status/1574735437691727873 "Yes I am confident that you will be able to triple your own salaries and it won't hit the media"
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Sep 27, 2022 15:07
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peanut- posted:Nationwide's new fixed mortgage rates, these are all circa 2-2.5% higher than they were on Friday with no base rate increase. drat, 5-5.5% for 60% LTV for a first-time buyer. Those are silly numbers. That would increase my mortgage by £600 a month and and would - along with energy costs - basically make it unaffordable on my current income. (Luckily I have a 1.24% fix until 2026 and I hope things calm down by then and/or I've had a promotion or two).
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Sep 27, 2022 15:09
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Stop being cute and tell us already https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1574760393137917953
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Sep 27, 2022 15:10
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peanut- posted:Nationwide's new fixed mortgage rates, these are all circa 2-2.5% higher than they were on Friday with no base rate increase. if the only mortgages on offer are now pushing 6% then they've just wiped 100-200k(?) off the value of everyones houses, unless institutional buyers flood in to backstop it? bleak af whole lot of ppl just went underwater on their homes without knowing it 10y being cheaper than 2y is some weird inverted curve signal, a sign that they think this is temporary or that they just dont want the business/have appetite for the risk rn? Rustybear fucked around with this message at 15:14 on Sep 27, 2022 |
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Sep 27, 2022 15:10
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Only Kindness posted:BTW, all these articles about letters of no-confidence / bangin' vonc / etc are a hopium / copium / psyop, correct? No, unless you misread what's being reported. If you think a VoNC will happen soon then you're setting yourself up for disappointment, but letters sent to the 1922 Committee will have happened. Partly because Tory MPs are messy bitches who love drama, partly because Truss hosed off people with who she appointed to her first cabinet and partly just because that budget on Friday was pure ideology in a way nobody expected, at a time nobody expected. Like, this sort of thing was expected but everyone anticipated the tax cuts would be slower and accompanied with spending cuts, because we will never ever escape austerity. Having the drastic tax cuts be both transparently favouring the rich while doing very little to lower government expenditure. This plays poorly with both new Tory voters in the North who are not particularly rich and with traditional Tory voters who are thick as poo poo and still believe the national budget is the same as your household budget myth/lie. So MPs without big majorities are deeply concerned. Mostly about the optics mind you, but to some extent the pound collapsing means imports are more expensive and that includes oil & gas, and so energy costs will possibly end up even higher which could gently caress a lot of businesses even more than was expected.
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Sep 27, 2022 15:11
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There's no way in hell, funny though it would be, that she's getting VONCed on week 1 of her reign. They'll file a bunch and say so in order to send the "get that poo poo out of your pants and sort this out" signal and hope she'll be bullied into backing down. If she tells them to gently caress off, however,
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Sep 27, 2022 15:15
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Rustybear posted:10y being cheaper than 2y is some weird inverted curve signal, a sign that they think this is temporary or that they just dont want the business/have appetite for the risk rn? I dunno exactly how mortgages are priced, but it reflects the SONIA swap rate - the 10 year rate is currently a big chunk lower than the 2 year rate. The market doesn't think the UK has the economic strength to sustain higher interest rates beyond a few years I guess. peanut- fucked around with this message at 15:18 on Sep 27, 2022 |
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Sep 27, 2022 15:16
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Only Kindness posted:BTW, all these articles about letters of no-confidence / bangin' vonc / etc are a hopium / copium / psyop, correct? I'm sure a few rebels will have sent them in, but I bet that happens all the time. There's no realistic chance of a mass submission leading to a VONC - we'd get indications of that ahead of time through e.g. cabinet resignations, government losing votes on major bills in parliament, etc.
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Sep 27, 2022 15:16
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Tesseraction posted:Stop being cute and tell us already Broke: being blackpilled Woke: being huwpilled
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Sep 27, 2022 15:18
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Mourning Due posted:same. September 2024. £270k to go. Paying £2350 a month, which is &£1000 over-pay, £450 in interest. If rates go up to 6%, and that's what we remortgage on, if I've done my math right (highly unlikely tbf), we'd be paying £1350 in interest each month 😐. You should look into remortgaging right now (if you can find a provider still giving them out). The Canadian gov said ahead of time they'd be raising interest rates, but we still had 6 months to go on our mortgage... luckily the mortgage adviser we used rang us up and told us we could lock in an interest rate now ahead of the rise, which we did. I think we paid about $4k in early repayment fees but we're locked in for 5 years at a really good rate. I know mortgage providers in the UK have already put rates up but it *still* might be better to do it now if you think you're gonna be looking at 6+% and there are providers now offering 5.3%. So yeah, just check out what your early repayment penalty is on your existing mortgage. Probably worth speaking to a mortgage adviser more generally.
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Sep 27, 2022 15:18
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Rustybear posted:if the only mortgages on offer are now pushing 6% then they've just wiped 100-200k(?) off the value of everyones houses, unless institutional buyers flood in to backstop it? bleak af
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Sep 27, 2022 15:19
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Z the IVth posted:I'm not well read on oesophageal CA beyond the basics but if there was an association wouldn't we see population level changes as the world transitioned off cooking fires onto gas and electric. Coal smoke from fires is a factor in throat cancer, with dung & wood fires following behind. An open fire in a hut gives off a drastically increased amount of particulate than an efficient enclosed Scandinavian one. A pertinent pdf on the matter: https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Map-showing-distribution-of-deaths-from-indoor-smoke-from-solid-fuels-2000-Source-The_fig2_300608366 I ain't no authority on this stuff, just random googling.
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Sep 27, 2022 15:23
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standby to be proven wrong by the basketcase that is the current tory party but there is subzero chance they will remove a new PM days into her term for... doing all the things she loudly said she would do during the leadership election a majority of MPs didnt want truss and now they're all vigorously briefing against her accordingly, big difference between words and actions tho
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Sep 27, 2022 15:24
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Rarity posted:So a Telegraph reporter pretended to be a 14 year old trans kid so they could infiltrate the Mermaids forumsand publish the private conversations of minors. Somehow this is less of a safeguarding issue for them than being taught how to wear a binder Big "I got free food from a food bank and all I had to do was repeatedly lie to my priest and everyone at the food bank" energy. We should compost journalists for heat is what I'm saying.
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Sep 27, 2022 15:25
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Tesseraction posted:and hope she'll be bullied into backing down.
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Sep 27, 2022 15:29
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Rustybear posted:if the only mortgages on offer are now pushing 6% then they've just wiped 100-200k(?) off the value of everyones houses, unless institutional buyers flood in to backstop it? bleak af Institutional buyers still have to think the british property market gives better returns for the risk than say the US market. What's more likely is banks going to extreme lengths not to foreclose - extending mortgage terms, interest freezes, etc. Because the moment they have to firesale 1000 houses at "whatever price will sell" is the moment their entire property portfolio devalues 100k-200k like you say.
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Sep 27, 2022 15:31
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Z the IVth posted:I'm not well read on oesophageal CA beyond the basics but if there was an association wouldn't we see population level changes as the world transitioned off cooking fires onto gas and electric. OwlFancier posted:Big "I got free food from a food bank and all I had to do was repeatedly lie to my priest and everyone at the food bank" energy. No decent LGBT charity would ever do that for any purpose, outing kids to family is a much bigger safeguarding issue than any kind of harm reduction or anything else. They should encourage open dialogue at a pace that the individual feels comfortable, but that might be never, depending on the parents, which the child would be better placed to know than any charity. ofc this all goes back to the big principle GC fear that their children might be individuals with inner lives of their own rather than chattels that can talk.
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Sep 27, 2022 15:39
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Just Another Lurker posted:Coal smoke from fires is a factor in throat cancer, with dung & wood fires following behind. The modern efficient ones are a lot better than the old style retrofits, which are better than the old style was, which are already massively better than most places outside the Nordics. The remote heat plants are a lot better still, but the scale required makes them impractical outside urban areas. Really clean energy from wood though. It was always a target for research because energy self-sufficiency is an important goal, and there has been a lot of slow progress over the years, but getting people in rural areas to upgrade and maintain their heating systems is like pulling teeth. What I can say confidently is that natural gas would not improve things in the slightest.
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Sep 27, 2022 15:39
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WhatEvil posted:You should look into remortgaging right now (if you can find a provider still giving them out). The Canadian gov said ahead of time they'd be raising interest rates, but we still had 6 months to go on our mortgage... luckily the mortgage adviser we used rang us up and told us we could lock in an interest rate now ahead of the rise, which we did. Eh, it depends but you're probably not better off locking in at 5+% on the chance that your rate may be 6+% at some point in the next 5 years for a certain period of time, that seems like a recipe for serious overpayment due to unreasonable pessimism. But then again, Tories...
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Sep 27, 2022 15:43
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Nothingtoseehere posted:Institutional buyers still have to think the british property market gives better returns for the risk than say the US market. i dont disagree but they dont HAVE to firesale them just repossess them and pass over to the branch of the business that now acts as a landlord
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Sep 27, 2022 15:44
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Failed Imagineer posted:Eh, it depends but you're probably not better off locking in at 5+% on the chance that your rate may be 6+% at some point in the next 5 years for a certain period of time, that seems like a recipe for serious overpayment due to unreasonable pessimism. But then again, Tories... Well yeah you don't have to fix for 5 years. Might be worth fixing for 2 though. All I'm saying is, look at your options and do what's best depending on what you think the interest rate is going to go up to. That might include being worth paying an early repayment fee on your current mortgage, depending on what the differential is - don't necessarily just think "Whelp I'm locked into my current mortgage" because you're not really *that* locked in. Or don't, whatever, I'm not your Dad. WhatEvil fucked around with this message at 15:48 on Sep 27, 2022 |
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Sep 27, 2022 15:46
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Z the IVth posted:I'm not well read on oesophageal CA beyond the basics but if there was an association wouldn't we see population level changes as the world transitioned off cooking fires onto gas and electric. There are so many other confounders/differences over time (i.e. lots of things have changed in the same timeframe as countries have transitioned between cooking/heating methods) and between countries that trying to attribute those oesophageal cancer rate differences to rates of indoor fire usage is a non-starter. A clearer picture comes from the fairly numerous case-control studies: 
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Sep 27, 2022 15:46
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Rustybear posted:i dont disagree but they dont HAVE to firesale them just repossess them and pass over to the branch of the business that now acts as a landlord If people can't pay a mortgage of X, they won't be able to rent it for X either. They'll have to rent them at 80% X or whatever, and that means they have to downvalue the property to it's rentable value, same way they value a BTL. Meanwhile the bank-landlord is now liable for a bunch of costs and maintenance that homeowners pay themselves. Well, if their auditors are being competent they would. Given the current scandals in the big 4 auditing industry, that may not be the case...
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Sep 27, 2022 15:54
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 https://news.sky.com/story/liz-truss-had-to-be-convinced-to-issue-govt-statement-to-calm-markets-after-meeting-with-chancellor-12706352 
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Sep 27, 2022 15:57
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Nothingtoseehere posted:If people can't pay a mortgage of X, they won't be able to rent it for X either. They'll have to rent them at 80% X or whatever, and that means they have to downvalue the property to it's rentable value, same way they value a BTL. Meanwhile the bank-landlord is now liable for a bunch of costs and maintenance that homeowners pay themselves.
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Sep 27, 2022 16:17
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Going after that BNP vote lol https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1574731802182402048?t=h0Fx9qwKeYT9G9HyMEB80g&s=19
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Sep 27, 2022 16:23
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My original mortgage in 2011 was 4.9%. How did I ever manage? Oh yeah I had two lodgers and it sucked.
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Sep 27, 2022 16:25
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