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Saladman posted:Diplomacy? He made a tweet and may have talked with Putin, although I'm super skeptical of that report. Why would Putin even want to talk with Musk, to try and convince him to shut down Starlink in exchange for... giving Germany gas for Tesla's plant? I would assume Putin gets enough bullshit talks with Macron to not want more talks with someone completely bonkers. (in the extremely unlikely event the call is real and had contents resembling what you're describing) I've always wanted to live to see the first ever Logan Act conviction.
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Oct 12, 2022 19:12
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ummel posted:I'm not sure of what this exact location looks like, but Ukraine has typically just flanked positions like this and forced Russia to flee, instead of engaging head on. Digging in like this is utterly useless if it is not tied to terrain in such a way to force an enemy to use it
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Oct 12, 2022 19:12
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Donkringel posted:https://twitter.com/archer83able/status/1580186174026829824 You know this would actually be a great time to use an explosive suicide boat or whatever hit those strat bombers inside Russia. I mean the repair crew is absoluetly a legitimate military target and it will force repairs to be far slower and also kill the moral of those doing it, encouraging them to rush or do a half rear end job, even if the job is slowed overall, which is an added bonus. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Oct 12, 2022 19:13
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Dirt5o8 posted:Attacking a prepared position like that will suck bad even with air support. I don't even know what Ukraine has for breaching assets. You really want mine clearing line charges instead of the plows on your tanks. And having a bridging asset is quicker than crawling up a bulldozer to deal with the trenches. If Russia lays wire, that has to be cleared by sappers or it will wind up in a tanks road wheels and could knock the track off. I'm more concerned what happens when Russia is pushed back to the 2014 lines. After 8 years of preparation those are likely to be a lot more defensible than an anti-tank ditch and some trenches manned by remnants of destroyed BTGs and raw conscripts.
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Oct 12, 2022 19:14
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saratoga posted:I'm more concerned what happens when Russia is pushed back to the 2014 lines. After 8 years of preparation those are likely to be a lot more defensible than an anti-tank ditch and some trenches manned by remnants of destroyed BTGs and raw conscripts. HIMARS, HIMARS Everywhere.
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Oct 12, 2022 19:19
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saratoga posted:I'm more concerned what happens when Russia is pushed back to the 2014 lines. After 8 years of preparation those are likely to be a lot more defensible than an anti-tank ditch and some trenches manned by remnants of destroyed BTGs and raw conscripts. That's assuming they ever thought they would be defending those lines though. From what I've seen, they never expected to seriously lose the eastern parts of Ukraine, much less actual attacks into Russia.
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Oct 12, 2022 19:21
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BonHair posted:That's assuming they ever thought they would be defending those lines though. From what I've seen, they never expected to seriously lose the eastern parts of Ukraine, much less actual attacks into Russia. Yeah, I wouldn't be shocked if they eventually abandon some naval assets, because no one ever expected those to be in danger of attacks and/or capture. I would love to have the Ukrainian navy rebuilt with Russian donations or traded to the US for some quality product.
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Oct 12, 2022 19:23
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https://twitter.com/WTF_Over1/status/1580239237907030033 What bearing doing? I can't confirm 100% myself that it's from the bridge but if legit its probably quite a bit more hosed that suspected  saratoga posted:I'm more concerned what happens when Russia is pushed back to the 2014 lines. After 8 years of preparation those are likely to be a lot more defensible than an anti-tank ditch and some trenches manned by remnants of destroyed BTGs and raw conscripts. Marshal Prolapse posted:Yeah, I wouldn't be shocked if they eventually abandon some naval assets, because no one ever expected those to be in danger of attacks and/or capture. I would love to have the Ukrainian navy rebuilt with Russian donations or traded to the US for some quality product. They'll be able to get their navy out unless the whole bridge collapses instantly...
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Oct 12, 2022 19:27
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spacetoaster posted:Don't you have to have the special receiver to use starlink? Also, are you saying the people of Crimea are Russians, or Ukrainians in a Russian occupied area? Yea the kit comes with a receiver. As far as I can conclude from articles is that starlink is experiencing deliberate outages in recently liberated area's + Crimea. I'm guessing the satelites can triangulate positions pretty acurately. As for why, I don't have the feintest idea. Russia has been reported to be fielding satcom jamming trucks directed at starlink communications, so I'm guessing they're not really going to be using starlink themselves. I'm going to guess Musk is just making noise in any way he can because he is a giant pissbaby when criticized. Just look at the whole pedo sub debacle.
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Oct 12, 2022 19:31
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My understanding is that StarLink has been deliberately disabled in all Russian-occupied regions of Ukraine to prevent usage by the Russians. So the fact it is disabled in Crimea is intentional. With regards to the newly liberated areas, it seems this would most likely due to delays in re-enabling StarLink given the pace of the Ukrainian counteroffensive. As much as Elon Musk is a colossal twat, I highly doubt the DoD would be allowing him to arbitrarily switch off connections unchecked.
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Oct 12, 2022 19:37
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mobby_6kl posted:https://twitter.com/WTF_Over1/status/1580239237907030033 Probably not much in the sea of azov, it has a shallow draft average 7 meters max 14. That means it's on average too shallow for Russian cruisers outside dredged channels and at the limits for Russian destroyers. Also navies are very expensive, and don't make good Christmas presents no matter what the warhawks say. They are high maintenance and frequently have special needs.  You can see the bottom. Barrel Cactaur fucked around with this message at 19:44 on Oct 12, 2022 |
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Oct 12, 2022 19:41
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We've had this exact same discussion already and barring any new information I don't think we'll find out if Musk meddled or not.
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Oct 12, 2022 19:42
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cinci zoo sniper posted:I’m really confused by this question. spacetoaster posted:Don't you have to have the special receiver to use starlink? Also, are you saying the people of Crimea are Russians, or Ukrainians in a Russian occupied area? Well, the OP is complaining that Musk shouldn’t be allowed to unilaterally disable Starlink access across Crimea because the US is paying for it. But my understanding is that the US is paying for Starlink access to benefit Ukrainian civilians who’ve had their Internet access bombed out, or Ukrainian military operating in places where traditional Internet access is either limited or again bombed out. Neither of these factors really apply to Crimea, so which customers exactly are getting affected by the stoppage, and does the US or Ukrainian government really care? That might change if the frontline moves into Crimea but that’s a Clancychat away and they can resume access in Crimea when that happens so I’m not sure why it matters.
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Oct 12, 2022 19:43
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Rocko Bonaparte posted:Those straight trenches are bugging me because I thought you really, really wanted them to wind and wiggle so somebody couldn't penetrate somewhere and just mow down both ways with machine guns. The bends in trenches also help dissipate the concussive force of exploding things and they allow for triangular fields of fire on anyone stupid enough to be advancing on them in the open. There are real military engineering reasons why trenches aren’t usually dug in long straight lines.
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Oct 12, 2022 19:43
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Mikojan posted:
That + the post on staying up in the middle of night to think of solution to nuclear war made me realize he is a narcissist, just like Trump ("only I can...") and... Churchill, who actually had some stunts like that in WWI era, too, but who could mostly get away with it on accounts of actually being an actual genius and master orator.
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Oct 12, 2022 19:44
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BonHair posted:That's assuming they ever thought they would be defending those lines though. From what I've seen, they never expected to seriously lose the eastern parts of Ukraine, much less actual attacks into Russia. Saratoga is right, there are heavy standoff fortifications on the lines connecting Kramatorsk with Donetsk and Luhansk cities. The only feasibly “easy” military attack on them is through northern Luhansk oblast’, which is where the trench digging video is from. Tomn posted:Well, the OP is complaining that Musk shouldn’t be allowed to unilaterally disable Starlink access across Crimea because the US is paying for it. But my understanding is that the US is paying for Starlink access to benefit Ukrainian civilians who’ve had their Internet access bombed out, or Ukrainian military operating in places where traditional Internet access is either limited or again bombed out. Neither of these factors really apply to Crimea, so which customers exactly are getting affected by the stoppage, and does the US or Ukrainian government really care? This and a few earlier posts conflate 2 separate conversations. 1) Ukrainian troops in counteroffensive areas of the current frontline have complained about spotty Starlink connectivity - https://www.ft.com/content/9a7b922b-2435-4ac7-acdb-0ec9a6dc8397 2) Musk has reportedly denied an Ukrainian request to enable Starlink connectivity in Crimea - https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-blocks-starlink-in-crimea-amid-nuclear-fears-report-2022-10
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Oct 12, 2022 19:56
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I'm guessing right now that digging trenches now is necessary because mud is coming and then frozen ground, so the Russian forces have a significant time limitation and maybe anticipate not having the opportunity for extensive trenchwork again until after the spring mud season is over. If they only have a matter of days to dig before autumn mud/freeze cycles start, and they want multiple parallel trenches, a straight line may be the first pass and then come back and add zigzags for the second trenchline if the weather permits?
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Oct 12, 2022 20:13
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cinci zoo sniper posted:
Oh, I hadn’t realized it was a Ukrainian government request- that does put a different spin on thing. Though I do note the only source is apparently “Ian Bremmer said Musk told him”? Not that I’m putting it past Musk to try and act like he’s the protagonist of a RPG forging the only path towards the True Ending, but it is a little he said she said right now.
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Oct 12, 2022 20:17
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Germany rejects Putin’s offer to restart gas supply through Nord Stream 2quote:Russian President Vladimir Putin on Wednesday proposed to resume the supply of gas to Europe using the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, a suggestion that was quickly turned down by German officials.
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Oct 12, 2022 20:18
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Dirt5o8 posted:People laughing at Russia for doing this should also know that this is the U.S. doctrine for defense. 2 or more types of obstacles and fighting positions set behind. But the U.S. only is supposed to go on the defense long enough to prepare another attack. I don't know if Russia has another attack in them.
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Oct 12, 2022 20:22
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Sometimes I really wonder what he thought he was going to be able to do, but with this nordstream stuff it just seems bafflingly irrational throughout. What was the play?
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Oct 12, 2022 20:24
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That is considerably more diplomatic than what I heard during the Bundespressekonferenz a few days ago 
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Oct 12, 2022 20:26
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Leperflesh posted:I'm guessing right now that digging trenches now is necessary because mud is coming and then frozen ground, so the Russian forces have a significant time limitation and maybe anticipate not having the opportunity for extensive trenchwork again until after the spring mud season is over. If they only have a matter of days to dig before autumn mud/freeze cycles start, and they want multiple parallel trenches, a straight line may be the first pass and then come back and add zigzags for the second trenchline if the weather permits? Thats a pretty good point, I hadn't thought of the possibility that digging trenches and ditches later might be difficult.
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Oct 12, 2022 20:27
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Kavros posted:Sometimes I really wonder what he thought he was going to be able to do, but with this nordstream stuff it just seems bafflingly irrational throughout. What was the play? We still don't really know for sure that they did it, though I think so. The play was probably exactly this. "Wow that's terrible someone would do such a thing. Isn't energy infrastructure fragile? Anyway we're happy to continue selling you gas again through the only intact pipeline in order to fund our war crimes"
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Oct 12, 2022 20:31
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the straight line out in the open is a defensive ditch, not a trench. it's so you can't just blitz vehicles across fields. ditches were pretty much universally a part of warfare for nearly the entire history of warfare for the same reason that you're seeing russia employing them now
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Oct 12, 2022 20:32
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Ynglaur posted:I can't remember where I heard/read it (Hertling? War on the Rocks?), but someone mentioned that this war may make the US re-evaluate its defensive doctrine. If modern peer warfare is truly attritional, with only episodes of maneuver, the US may want to consider changing its defend-only-until-you-can-attack doctrine. I don't know if that change is necessary, but it's interesting to ponder. There is going to be a lot of soul searching in armies across the world when this done, I figure. In the U.S. Army's case, change will be typically glacial when it comes to doctrine change. One thing this war has shown is that drone warfare is accelerating faster than a lot of people anticipated. The Deep Fight is going to be the main focus with the man-to-man/Vehicle vs Missile Close Fight just the side show or mopping up.
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Oct 12, 2022 20:33
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Added as I recognise all of those, despite still haven’t watched a single video of Perun. You really should. Perun is fantastic, he puts in a lot of effort to be as objective as possible (while admitting up front his bias in favor of Ukraine), everything is researched and well-reasoned, and he sprinkles in just enough of a light dusting of humor to keep it all interesting.
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Oct 12, 2022 20:33
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Perun's videos are great and I'd highly recommend people watch them. I heard people mentioning him early on and figured it was some clickbaity jerkoff youtube poo poo about 10 greatest military weapons of the war or w/e like 99% of the defense content on youtube, but no they're incredibly good, very dense videos that are more akin to professional presentations than anything else. Dude appears to be an Australian defense analyst specializing in defense economics or something similar.
Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 20:40 on Oct 12, 2022 |
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Oct 12, 2022 20:38
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Marshal Prolapse posted:You know this would actually be a great time to use an explosive suicide boat or whatever hit those strat bombers inside Russia. I mean the repair crew is absoluetly a legitimate military target and it will force repairs to be far slower and also kill the moral of those doing it, encouraging them to rush or do a half rear end job, even if the job is slowed overall, which is an added bonus. Curious what the mod policy is here. This is a Russian-flagged crane vessel the "Aleksander Zinovyev" flying visible Russian flags and working on a piece of infrastructure that we all regard as a legitimate target. It seems like an ideal and very interesting target for sneaky long range boat-drones if they exist, what am I missing?
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Oct 12, 2022 20:44
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slurm posted:Curious what the mod policy is here. This is a Russian-flagged crane vessel the "Aleksander Zinovyev" flying visible Russian flags and working on a piece of infrastructure that we all regard as a legitimate target. It seems like an ideal and very interesting target for sneaky long range boat-drones if they exist, what am I missing? a soul Also, King Slurm, regardless of your use of the royal "we", you're not ruling this thread.
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Oct 12, 2022 20:51
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cuz it's gross to look at some civilian dudes repairing a bridge and go 'i hope someone blows them up with a mk19 submersible antibridgepersonnel bomb''
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Oct 12, 2022 20:51
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IMO intentionally targeting civilians is bad, and suggesting suicide boating a civilian target is especially gross, a boat repairing a civilian bridge is not "absolutely a legitimate military target"
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Oct 12, 2022 20:57
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The bridge is a major means of transporting Russian military assets to occupied Ukrainian territories. It is absolutely a military target. If a few people started taking cruises on aircraft carriers, they wouldn't suddenly become "civilian ships".
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Oct 12, 2022 21:03
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Inferior Third Season posted:The bridge is a major means of transporting Russian military assets to occupied Ukrainian territories. It is absolutely a military target. In fact, because of the position of the front lines and Ukrainian rail lines, the Crimea bridge is the ONLY way to directly supply a large portion of the southern front, particularly Kherson oblast.
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Oct 12, 2022 21:08
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Dirt5o8 posted:There is going to be a lot of soul searching in armies across the world when this done, I figure. In the U.S. Army's case, change will be typically glacial when it comes to doctrine change. I'm actually not convinced US doctrinal changes will be glacial. It changed remarkably quickly in both the 1930s and 1970s, and was not necessarily driven solely off of its own experience. Parts have remained consistent (we still don't bother with any double-envelopment complexity), but the state of US doctrine has not been static. I do agree that the operational and even tactical depth of the fight is vastly different now than even 20 years ago. A British general was on one of the podcasts (MWI, I think) discussing this fact. Units 50km from the line of contact need to exercise significant noise, light, and EM discipline if they want to survive; if it's not mobile, it dies; and even logistics assets need at least some armored protection.
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Oct 12, 2022 21:08
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Someone really needs to show Ukraine this thread so they can know what civilian targets to bomb.
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Oct 12, 2022 21:09
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The thing alleged to have hit the strat bombers in Russia was a suicide bomber drone, not a suicide bomber person, that's what I assume they meant. Not that I think there's any chance of a redux, if the Russians aren't on highest alert, land sea and air, now, then uh, it'd be a new low even for them.
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Oct 12, 2022 21:09
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Why is it okay to bomb the Antonovsky bridge and the crews that repair it, but not the Kerch bridge? Both are or were used by civilians. To be clear, it's not okay to unannouncedly start bombing any random parts of enemy infrastructure in dual military/civilian use. There should be a clear warning beforehand so that people can avoid danger. But on the other hand, I'm pretty sure that Ukraine has issued a warning before. And it's also obvious that a civilian crew repairing a military target like a bridge is not protected. Nenonen fucked around with this message at 21:15 on Oct 12, 2022 |
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Oct 12, 2022 21:09
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Kavros posted:Sometimes I really wonder what he thought he was going to be able to do, but with this nordstream stuff it just seems bafflingly irrational throughout. What was the play? Russia (and the USSR) has a long history of making bad faith public proposals (like the Stalin note, etc), which are not intended to be taken seriously, but are 'win-win' for Russia, and 'lose-lose' for the recipient. In the incredibly unlikely event Germany said Yes - bam, instantly a huge political wedge is driven in the Western bloc, which can be weaponised in propaganda, used to weaken support for Ukraine and provide hope to Russians that 'King Cotto.. I mean Gas' will deliver victory and divide Europe. But instead, if Germany goes on record as saying no? Bam, Russian propaganda is provided with material of the German government saying no to cheap gas, which will be used by its troll farms/useful idiots to blame Berlin for the winter gas price crunch and economic hardship. Its inevitable that at least some citizens will be susceptible to messaging blaming their government for causing the crisis, putting more pressure on Berlin to waver.
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Oct 12, 2022 21:11
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We don't have to level city blocks to stop a country's war industry in 2022... But train stations, most of the ammo depot's Russia's been using, and extremely strategic bridges like Kerch are still civilian infrastructure. And often civilians will be on site or nearby. Russian civil workers, passerby's and even Ukrainians may be around these sites. I hope the initial bridge attack was timed to minimize collateral casualties, the bridge was relatively empty at the time. But as we all saw, there were still civilians killed by this action. Ukraine needs to attack these targets to prevent the deaths of their own civilians. But it is not clean, innocent people are hurt by it, directly and indirectly even with the most accurate modern weaponry. Ideally, if they get the chance again they can attack it after repairs are complete and the crews have cleared out. But that may risk losing a chance to attack before, or letting crucial supplies for the enemy get across. War is hell because you may need to match your enemy's breach of moral codes in order to survive. Lesser of two evils still requires evil. Putin is 100% at fault for forcing this issue.
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Oct 12, 2022 21:11
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