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Flappy Bert posted:I'm somewhat shocked that this seems... more or less plausible for a black bag job? It’s certainly one of the more pedestrian theories Russian government has put out concerning various unfavourable events this year. The story seems to be at least partially disputed, but it’s not about a secret anti-Russian plague to be spread by NATO pigeons at least. At the same time, FSB still is pumping out their usual fare. For instance, I wonder if you’ll spot something unusual in this recent video of an arrest of an alleged Ukrainian terrorist carrying a 3 kg bomb on them? https://twitter.com/prof_preobr/status/1580136385901924352
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Oct 13, 2022 02:40
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That's a cruder scene shift/cut than porn.
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Oct 13, 2022 02:49
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Well yeah all the good russian porn editors fled after the international payment systems closed back in, what, april?
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Oct 13, 2022 02:51
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Is that FSB agent just cutting open an “explosive” device to show it to the cameraman, two feet from the handcuffed, but otherwise unrestrained “terrorist”? A lot of confidence imo.
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Oct 13, 2022 02:54
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Crow Buddy posted:Is that FSB agent just cutting open an “explosive” device to show it to the cameraman, two feet from the handcuffed, but otherwise unrestrained “terrorist”? A lot of confidence imo. Yeah, that part is a bit on the nose.
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Oct 13, 2022 03:34
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Popete posted:Special Report: U.S. firm supplied networking tech to maker of Russian missiles Rescuing a lost post. Also I think they’re quite hosed, it’s a small company and that’s a blatant sanctions violation well into millions.
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Oct 13, 2022 03:41
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cinci zoo sniper posted:I simply don’t have time reserved for watching videos in my day. For instance, I haven’t watched a single YouTube video in the last 30 days. I can respect that. I just want to say that you should make sure that you really and truly don't have time to make time for Perun. Just for your own sake and your own enjoyment of a high-effort job done very, very well, you should let yourself see this if you can make time for it.
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Oct 13, 2022 03:44
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Rescuing a lost post. Also I think they’re quite hosed, it’s a small company and that’s a blatant sanctions violation well into millions. Whoops! Thanks for noticing I'll repost it anyways as I thought the companies bit about the "disgruntled employee" was choice. Special Report: U.S. firm supplied networking tech to maker of Russian missiles Networking IT company sold computer systems to Russian companies that U.S. companies are banned doing business with. Just to be clear these are IT systems for businesses themselves not components going into weapons. quote:In April, six weeks after Russia's invasion of Ukraine, an Extreme employee filed an internal complaint, seen by Reuters, alleging that the company was selling to various military manufacturers in Russia. "Extreme equipment is used on Russian warships," the complaint said, "in communications systems." Love to blame a disgruntled employee. Wonder how much trouble they'll actually be in if they knew (sounds like they did) they were breaking export bans.
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Oct 13, 2022 03:51
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I'm sure the only part they're not faking is arresting a random guy and ruining his life
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Oct 13, 2022 03:52
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Herstory Begins Now posted:UN Voted on condemning the annexation referenda Apparently it might have been six or even seven against, with Myanmar and Afghanistan, except the Myanmar UN rep is left over from before the military coup, and the UN has yet to recognize Afghanistan's pick to replace its representative. E.g., Myanmar's position: https://www.myanmar-now.org/en/news/myanmar-junta-reiterates-support-for-putins-war-on-ukraine Governments supporting Russia tend to have something in common.
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Oct 13, 2022 05:09
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Another dawn is breaking in Kyiv, and it's still Ukrainian.   
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Oct 13, 2022 05:17
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Sir John Falstaff posted:except the Myanmar UN rep is left over from before the military coup There should be a sitcom or comedy film about a diplomat who gets forgotten after a revolution and becomes the sole representative of a non existent government/state They can call it "Government in Ex-Kyle" or something the main characters name would have to be kyle, I can't think of a better pun.
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Oct 13, 2022 05:20
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FishBulbia posted:They can call it "Government in Ex-Kyle" or something A massive volcanic eruption creates a landbridge to Taiwan and China invades. The Maldives get completely swept under the sea. It's possible both options are too depressing.. New-Zealand has been left out of so many maps that the world has finally stopped recognizing it as a nation. Government in Ex-Isle.
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Oct 13, 2022 05:46
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https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/01/11/afghan-diplomats-taliban-reprisal/ essentially every episode is "how do we pay the power bill"
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Oct 13, 2022 05:58
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I’ve thought a bit more about the FSB version of events, and they’re basically saying that they missed someone bringing in 22 tonnes of explosives into Russia through an allied X-ray facility, the federal border, and the Kerch strait bridge checkpoint. Apparently some journalists did interview an involved explosives expert, who was less than enthusiastic about being scapegoated as unable to distinguish between two very different chemical substances on a scanner. In related news, https://twitter.com/bendobrown/status/1580385992791334912
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Oct 13, 2022 06:05
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Cpt_Obvious posted:Those are very different political situations. The official stance of the current Ukrainian government is that they are a separate country from Russia while the official stance of the Taiwanese government is that they are part of the same country as mainland China but that the Taiwanese government rule the whole thing (and mongolia). One is a conflict over borders while the other is an internal power struggle. The ROC no longer claims Mongolia, although it took a while: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mongolia%E2%80%93Taiwan_relations
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Oct 13, 2022 06:29
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cinci zoo sniper posted:I’ve thought a bit more about the FSB version of events, and they’re basically saying that they missed someone bringing in 22 tonnes of explosives into Russia through an allied X-ray facility, the federal border, and the Kerch strait bridge checkpoint. Apparently some journalists did interview an involved explosives expert, who was less than enthusiastic about being scapegoated as unable to distinguish between two very different chemical substances on a scanner. It's probably easier to get explosives in Russia than to get them across the border. If this was an FSB operation I think it would have been done at a far busier time with way more civilian deaths. The timing of 6 AM Saturday morning points to Ukraine who would want to slip the truck through the checks at a time with tired staff and little traffic. The presence of a train full of fuel may have been lucky or a scheduled transport they knew in advance would be there. FSB would not blow up a train full of fuel which creates an uncertain outcome, possibly ruining the entire rail bridge for months. CeeJee fucked around with this message at 06:42 on Oct 13, 2022 |
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Oct 13, 2022 06:33
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cinci zoo sniper posted:I simply don’t have time reserved for watching videos in my day. For instance, I haven’t watched a single YouTube video in the last 30 days. Gonna echo the earlier sentiment: you have been doing great work here in the thread, and I don't think anyone would blame you for taking some time to yourself. War sucks. Reporting on war, especially in today's media environment, also sucks and will tire you out quick.
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Oct 13, 2022 06:39
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Inferior Third Season posted:The bridge is a major means of transporting Russian military assets to occupied Ukrainian territories. It is absolutely a military target. It's the presence of civilians that make it an invalid target. Not the presence of war materials that makes it a valid one. This is the logic that applies every single time. So the legal question is "what makes it a warcrime then?" And the answer is "That depends" It depends on who captures you. On whom wins the war and who is willing to defend you. But the ethical issue is crystal clear. Feliday Melody fucked around with this message at 06:44 on Oct 13, 2022 |
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Oct 13, 2022 06:40
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For those who do have the time and inclination to watch YouTube videos, Danish military analyst Anders Puck Nielsen made a new one: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zTSWKrGEAAA. He's a navy guy and I thought his early war analysis was way too "Russia has an actual army waiting in the wings", so I found his non-navy stuff a little meh (he was and is incredible when it comes to navy stuff), but I found over the last few months he has really hit a stride, and gained a much more nuanced and less 'pre-war biased' view of things. I hope he does more navy-focused stuff soon, though, as that is where is true skill lies.
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Oct 13, 2022 06:49
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Nenonen posted:A civilian ship performing a military task under orders from the military leadership in an occupied area is not really a civilian ship. Civilians rules-lawyering rules of engagement so they can talk about killing real actual human beings on a forum is kinda gross.
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Oct 13, 2022 06:50
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Rescuing a lost post. Also I think they’re quite hosed, it’s a small company and that’s a blatant sanctions violation well into millions. They have a small enterprise footprint, mainly from scavenging other companies IP. Extreme Networks used to do the Black Diamond range of enterprise switches, back when painting your equipment Bright Purple was showing how cool and edgy your hardware was, because they couldn't actually compete with Cisco / Juniper on actual performance. Wikipedia suggests they have bits of Digital, Nortel/Avaya, Motorolla, Brocade and other names I forgot existed. Their 2021 SEC filingssuggest they made a gross profit of $585,123,000 in 2021. They have been putting out press releases lately about getting back in the market, so that was a short-lived expansion.
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Oct 13, 2022 06:52
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My headcanon is that it was a Ukrainian op start to finish but the FSB agents running the investigation have assumed that it was a false-flag they didn't get briefed on and are busily covering it up.
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Oct 13, 2022 07:11
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Feliday Melody posted:It's the presence of civilians that make it an invalid target. Not the presence of war materials that makes it a valid one. Do you think munitions factories are off-limits targets on account of civilians working there? Genuine question, because I think many people would dispute that both ethically and legally. There’s a reason why intentionally parking military materiel between civilians and using them as shields is, by itself, a warcrime: because it’s unreasonable to force the enemy to choose between blowing up civilians or letting enemy materiel get use unchecked because you found “one simple trick” To return to the question of the Kerch bridge: IMO calling for the gleeful vaporisation of civilians is distasteful but also the bridge is being used as an important transport line for the Russians actively trying to genocide the Ukrainian populace. Attempts to repair it aid the war effort for Russia, and blowing up materiel that is used to repair it hinders their war effort. In an ideal world you strike it at midnight when nobody is using it but that’s not always feasible. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Oct 13, 2022 07:13
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The Lone Badger posted:My headcanon is that it was a Ukrainian op start to finish but the FSB agents running the investigation have assumed that it was a false-flag they didn't get briefed on and are busily covering it up. It's more likely that the corruption visible in the Russian army also permeates the FSB. Why organise an investigation that might take weeks to deliver results when you can just fabricate something to please the bosses. They want to project an aura of incredible effectiveness to the Russian population, so heading off calls for results with whatever disinfo you've got handy is better than letting people have thoughts about the situation.
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Oct 13, 2022 07:27
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Nenonen posted:A civilian ship performing a military task under orders from the military leadership in an occupied area is not really a civilian ship. So sink it at a time when there's as few casualties as possible. This isn't that loving trolley problem.
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Oct 13, 2022 07:32
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So, what’s the 5-year plan for staying stunlocked on a trivial bloodlusting probation?CeeJee posted:It's probably easier to get explosives in Russia than to get them across the border. I’m hardly sold on “FSB did it” spin, I’m just noting that this is yet another scenario where the official explanation is “we are incompetent morons”.
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Oct 13, 2022 07:43
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cinci zoo sniper posted:https://twitter.com/chriso_wiki/status/1580303771208339456 I don’t understand some of this, especially this one: https://mobile.twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1580303806339854336 They show a photo of the truck but it is like 80% empty. So they unloaded like 18 tons of acrylonitrile styrene, photographed the last couple palettes, then loaded it back up? I mean maybe they actually do that to mitigate smuggling, but drat looks like a ton of effort if they unload and reload every truck at every border. The scans in Yerevan also are still showing a largely empty truck. So when did it get the 22 tons of explosive? I get it’s not the same truck as the one that exploded, but it’s also not enough explosive to make any sense. The rest of the story is rather convincing so I might be missing something obvious. This is the FSB’s version of events? I’m surprised at how plausible it sounds. Saladman fucked around with this message at 08:02 on Oct 13, 2022 |
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Oct 13, 2022 07:56
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As loathe as I am to toe this line, I think there's a valid gray zone re: the combatant status of civilian contractors working on dual-use infrastructure in occupied territory at the behest of the occupying belligerent during a war. They're one step away from the unlucky truck drivers that were running logistics for the Russian military earlier in the war, and if these contractors were an engineering battalion doing the exact same work, we wouldn't be having this conversation. I'm not going to root for the deaths of these contractors, but I'm also not going to file their deaths alongside Ukrainian citizens that were killed in a missile strike on their apartment building, or the unlucky souls who went for a pre-dawn run near the oil storage facilities in Belgorod. This bridge is not incidental to Russia's prosecution of this war. It was specifically built to support and exploit the Russian conquest of Crimea, and supporting the invasion of Kherson was probably in the cards as well when it came up. Given its vital role in keeping the southern front supplied, I don't blame Ukraine in the slightest for destroying it, and I wouldn't blame them for repeatedly stomping down attempts to repair it regardless of who Russia sends to make that happen. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Oct 13, 2022 07:57
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Saladman posted:I don’t understand some of this, especially this one: It’s just 22 pallets, ABS is denser than than water. 16 of them are visible on the photo, with at least 2-4 more behind the curtain if I had to guess.
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Oct 13, 2022 08:25
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cinci zoo sniper posted:So, what’s the 5-year plan for staying stunlocked on a trivial bloodlusting probation? I think it's far and away most likely Ukraine who did it but with the huge caveat that there are major shortcomings in every potential account of the story and that the fsb version of events once again comes back to the apparently common Russian line 'it's either unfathomable incompetence or betrayal.' In the absence of clear (or even merely decent) evidence that Ukraine did it, it's worth noting just how many other parties have some interest in knocking Russia down a peg or perhaps responding to the destruction of vital European infrastructure or wanting to undermine the Russian war effort. There's also a bunch of different Russian factions that could have some interest in either subverting the war effort or in making Putin look incompetent or in giving an excuse to escalate the war. basically who tf knows until someone talks about how it was done who was actually involved.
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Oct 13, 2022 08:41
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I mean I'm assuming it was Ukraine because when it comes to means-motive-opportunity they pretty much top the list for all three.
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Oct 13, 2022 08:59
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My uninformed gut instinct is that this was a joint operation involving Ukraine and some bunch of ethnic/regional dissidents in Russia who were more than happy to cooperate.
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Oct 13, 2022 09:14
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Vincent Van Goatse posted:So sink it at a time when there's as few casualties as possible. This isn't that loving trolley problem. "As few as" doesn't mean "none" though. You can take efforts to minimise civilian casualties while acknowledging that your millitary objective comes before the absolute safety of civilians. You'd want to sink it at night when it's not in use, but what if the only point where there's a gap in air defenses for you to strike is when it's in transit from port to the bridge? The highest goal of a national millitary is defense of their own people, not to do no harm. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Oct 13, 2022 09:18
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Or it was just SBU leaning on some smuggler contacts. I imagine there are thriving operations going on that up until that point were quietly ignored by Russian authorities, since they provide useful stuff (and bribes). I'm more interested in how couple tonnes of explosives got there. Was it shipped from Ukraine or Bulgaria, or acquired along the way between Georgia and Russia.
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Oct 13, 2022 09:20
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The Lone Badger posted:I mean I'm assuming it was Ukraine because when it comes to means-motive-opportunity they pretty much top the list for all three. Ukraine could've done it of coursed and I do hope they blow it up again, but there are many plausible explanations that don't really require a massive  PederP posted:For those who do have the time and inclination to watch YouTube videos, Danish military analyst Anders Puck Nielsen made a new one: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zTSWKrGEAAA. He's a navy guy and I thought his early war analysis was way too "Russia has an actual army waiting in the wings", so I found his non-navy stuff a little meh (he was and is incredible when it comes to navy stuff), but I found over the last few months he has really hit a stride, and gained a much more nuanced and less 'pre-war biased' view of things. I hope he does more navy-focused stuff soon, though, as that is where is true skill lies.
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Oct 13, 2022 09:29
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It's good OPSEC that nobody has a damned clue other that the ones who did it. 
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Oct 13, 2022 09:38
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Um, is this reliable? I feel like the Economist would be less inclined to take a pro-Russian stance if it could be avoided: As Europe falls into recession, Russia climbs out
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Oct 13, 2022 09:43
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cinci zoo sniper posted:It’s just 22 pallets, ABS is denser than than water. 16 of them are visible on the photo, with at least 2-4 more behind the curtain if I had to guess. Wait, that's 22 tons of material in the photo? I guess I just have absolutely no clue how heavy anything is. But yeah makes sense now that I think about it. 1x1x1m of water is 1 ton, so 22x meter cubes would be a full load. I guess I just always expect lorries to be full to the gills, but the only time I've ever loaded or unloaded a mid-sized lorry has been when they're full of furniture and household belongings.
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Oct 13, 2022 09:58
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khwarezm posted:Um, is this reliable? I feel like the Economist would be less inclined to take a pro-Russian stance if it could be avoided: Probably not, there were articles in Bloomberg last week about how the Russian economy has erased its surplus Everyone is doing analysis based on incomplete and sometimes fabricated data so predictions are all over the place
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