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KYOON GRIFFEY JR posted:I don't think that ship had much value at the front. At first I was like lol no of course, but then I just remembered, isn't a huge portion of the front currently defined by various long, famously navigable rivers, with various bridges across them that might need protecting? I have no idea if that ship has a shallow enough draft to e.g. travel up the Dnieper or the Dniester but maybe?
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Oct 13, 2022 17:51
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Popete posted:So the story about Extreme Networks breaking a ban on selling IT equipment to banned countries got me thinking about IT in general in Russia. Intel and other chip makers are banned from selling chips to Russia right? Does that extend to wholesale of desktops/laptops from vendors like Microsoft/Apple/Asus/etc. or can your average Russian citizen/business buy that stuff still? It's not like Russia borders any countries that are not under Sanctions.
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Oct 13, 2022 17:51
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I wonder if Korea’s defence industry is having a rally in their stock and financial performance with all these defence contracts being thrown around. Could they potentially become a major arms producing country to backfill the gaps left by Russia?
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Oct 13, 2022 17:58
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MikusR posted:It's not like Russia borders any countries that are not under Sanctions. It's more a question regarding the legality of selling business/personal use hardware within Russia.
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Oct 13, 2022 17:58
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bird food bathtub posted:I would imagine there's also a lot of performative security theater going on at the bridge right now as well. If the official line is that the x-ray'd truck was missed and made a boomie the bureaucratic response will be the Russian equivalent of every one spending four hours in line at TSA taking off their shoes and belts. Yes and that boat isn't going to do poo poo either alex314 posted:Anyone remember the craziest weapon buyer Poland? Turns out US might not be keen on selling 500 HIMARS systems, since it's pretty bonkers... The K239 is a wheeled truck but has two pods of 6 missiles, like the M270. But, as far as I can tell from the wiki article, has incompatible missiles. That's... not a great idea! I mean for Poland but also for SK to have made that in the first place, as having access to a gazillion missiles from your allies seem like would've been helpful if poo poo hits the fan. quote:ER GMLRS rockets with extended range of up to 150 km (93 mi).[59] Rockets use a slightly increased rocket motor size, a newly designed hull, and tail-driven guidance, while still containing six per pod. It will come in unitary and AW variants.[60] The first successful test flight of a ER GMLRS occurred in March 2021.[61] In early 2021, Lockheed Martin anticipated putting the ER into its production line in the fiscal year 2023 contract award and was planning to produce the new rockets at its Camden facility.[22] In 2022 Finland became the first foreign customer to order ER GMLRS.[62]
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Oct 13, 2022 18:02
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Kraftwerk posted:I wonder if Korea’s defence industry is having a rally in their stock and financial performance with all these defence contracts being thrown around. Could they potentially become a major arms producing country to backfill the gaps left by Russia? Also could probably get some sales in the West when people realize that German stuff is only available in artisanal quantities?
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Oct 13, 2022 18:04
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Zedsdeadbaby posted:Somehow I don't think a boat would do much good in Kherson or Kreminna. KYOON GRIFFEY JR posted:I don't think that ship had much value at the front. I was referring to the MANPADS
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Oct 13, 2022 18:05
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OddObserver posted:Also could probably get some sales in the West when people realize that German stuff is only available in artisanal quantities? That tracks with Korea's civilian strategy of poaching German auto designers and German car customers.
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Oct 13, 2022 18:05
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Popete posted:It's more a question regarding the legality of selling business/personal use hardware within Russia. The hardware is sold in for example Kazakhstan. And then sent and resold in Russia.
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Oct 13, 2022 18:07
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mobby_6kl posted:Yes and that boat isn't going to do poo poo either I somehow assumed at least ammo would be the same  And yeah, different diameter. The gently caress... I know the previous Minister of Defense did some questionable things (some people would consider treason..), but I've assumed the new one is saner.
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Oct 13, 2022 18:09
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Enjoy posted:I was referring to the MANPADS
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Oct 13, 2022 18:11
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Considering both NATO and the US remain committed to strategic ambiguity I'm not sure what to make of this statement of Borrell's. https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1580566530923716608?s=20&t=SwBMuwbws1JnHm_oEnTn_A FWIW he's hawkish on Ukraine and prone to jumping the gun so who knows. https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1498035551168983043?s=20&t=6uKC7GRMpE5p3GfOq7vRjA Stoltenberg has reiterated NATO's position as late as today btw: ""There would be severe consequences if Russia used nuclear weapons, any kind of nuclear weapon against Ukraine," Jens Stoltenberg told a news conference after a meeting of NATO defence ministers. "We will not go into exactly how we will respond, but this will fundamentally change the nature of the conflict. It means that a very important line has been crossed," he said, referring to the war in Ukraine that followed Russia's invasion of the country. He said the fundamental purpose of NATO's nuclear deterrent was to preserve peace and prevent coercion against its allies, and so the circumstances under which it might have to use nuclear weapons were "extremely remote"" https://www.reuters.com/world/nato-chief-circumstances-nato-use-nuclear-weapons-extremely-remote-2022-10-13/ Between Macron's latest statements today maybe it's just a case of internal EU tensions between hawks and doves spilling out? https://twitter.com/EmmanuelMacron/status/1580505003714048001?s=20&t=g14yyk2NZA4i8bFWhxhZMQ https://twitter.com/nukestrat/status/1580538680040513536?s=20&t=6uKC7GRMpE5p3GfOq7vRjA https://twitter.com/EHunterChristie/status/1580566735228268549?s=20&t=_yjqw5P1hV4aWm2VOx_CIg
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Oct 13, 2022 18:16
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Borrell also jumped the shark on jet delivery that didn’t happen, way back, so I think this mainly hot air from him, or some Brussels palace drama backblast, as you suggest.
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Oct 13, 2022 18:28
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MikusR posted:The hardware is sold in for example Kazakhstan. And then sent and resold in Russia. I'm asking about the legality not how it can be circumvented. What is the actual legality of selling for example Intel chip desktops/laptops in Russia? Can Lenovo sell directly to Russian consumers or is that illegal? The Extreme Networks debacle makes it sound like selling to specific organizations is prohibited but maybe not all businesses/consumers.
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Oct 13, 2022 18:47
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Enjoy posted:I was referring to the MANPADS The MANPADs are part of the boat's armament. It carries a single Igla tube and four reloads. The presence or absence of this Igla tube is immaterial to the course of the war. Leperflesh posted:At first I was like lol no of course, but then I just remembered, isn't a huge portion of the front currently defined by various long, famously navigable rivers, with various bridges across them that might need protecting? I have no idea if that ship has a shallow enough draft to e.g. travel up the Dnieper or the Dniester but maybe? It possibly could, but I'm not sure what it would be doing other than getting shot at. Along the rivers the main AFU threat to bridges is artillery and a guard ship just presents an additional object to hit with near misses.
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Oct 13, 2022 18:57
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France has probably the least ambiguous nuclear doctrine of any nuclear armed power, which is that they will use nuclear weapons in a countervalue first strike if France is sufficiently threatened. Now the threshold of threat is a bit ambiguous, but it probably requires an existential threat to France. Russia using tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine is not an existential threat to France and as one of the tweet people pointed out, Macron is just giving the correct doctrinaire response to the question.
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Oct 13, 2022 19:02
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https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1580603516254818305 I'm not fully convinced though am hopeful.
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Oct 13, 2022 19:14
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Borrell also jumped the shark on jet delivery that didn’t happen, way back, so I think this mainly hot air from him, or some Brussels palace drama backblast, as you suggest. The most commonly suggested and hintrd response to a Russian WMD attack would be full scale participation of NATO forces on Ukrainian soil. This likely means a massive wave of conventional missile strikes on Russian logistical units and infrastructure in Ukraine and the full deployment of NATO aircraft to strike Russian troops and facilitate Ukrainian offensives to fully eject Russian troops from Ukraine. It is also suggested that what remains of the Black Sea Fleet will also be sent to the bottom in the event it tries to exit port. Whether NATO would risk or see the need for NATO ground forces to actually participate on front line combat is less clear. Everything see so far suggests the Russians would be incapable of resisting a "shock and awe" style campaign with the Ukrainians still the ones doing the work on the ground. Given how vulnerable Russia has been to the hodgepodge of donated weapons, it is clear that what is left of the Russian army would rapidly disintegrate in the face of a technologically superior NATO air campaign. Edit: phone typing is hard.
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Oct 13, 2022 19:23
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Borrell also jumped the shark on jet delivery that didn’t happen, way back, so I think this mainly hot air from him, or some Brussels palace drama backblast, as you suggest. I certainly hope so. Even if that was actual US/NATO policy; saying so publicly would potentially create a commitment trap and reduce political maneuverability and avenues of potential de-escalation. Which, to my mind, speaks to it just being Borell doing some off-the-cuff wishful thinking with his head up his rear end. There are a ton of good reasons Biden, Sullivan, Stoltenberg et al have been fastidiously observing strategic ambiguity on potential responses to such a scenario. Context seems to strengthen the case that he was simply misspeaking/getting ahead of himself: https://twitter.com/laurnorman/status/1580620555660599296?s=20&t=ReW8GfV4FnS5ZLvKS1PmCQ PerilPastry fucked around with this message at 19:30 on Oct 13, 2022 |
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Oct 13, 2022 19:25
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alex314 posted:I somehow assumed at least ammo would be the same The Chunmoo is compatible with the 227mm system that the HIMARS uses. It just can also fire a bunch of different domestic Korean rockets. Those are different because they were designed before the M270 was.
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Oct 13, 2022 19:32
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https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1580611395149627392 Glad to see progress continues
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Oct 13, 2022 19:36
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sniper4625 posted:Glad to see progress continues Yeah, same. Feels like it's been very quiet these past few days - according to War Mapper "there have been no notable changes to control". I assume the Ukrainians are resting and regrouping before they start pushing forward once more.
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Oct 13, 2022 19:43
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The masses of conscripts are probably also starting to fill in holes and slowing things down now somewhatTuna-Fish posted:The Chunmoo is compatible with the 227mm system that the HIMARS uses. It just can also fire a bunch of different domestic Korean rockets. Those are different because they were designed before the M270 was.
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Oct 13, 2022 19:50
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Remember the maintenance report on the Moskva that came to light a couple of months after it sank? I'm sure that on paper the boat defending the Kerch bridge has all sorts of anti-air, anti-ship, anti-dolphin, anti-whatever capabilities, but whether it can actually deploy those capabilities when needed is another question altogether.
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Oct 13, 2022 19:58
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FishBulbia posted:I'm not fully convinced though am hopeful. BBC news is saying the Russians have ordered civilian evacuation of Kherson, so they're getting ready for a big fight. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-63243313
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Oct 13, 2022 20:20
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Phlegmish posted:Yeah, same. Feels like it's been very quiet these past few days - according to War Mapper "there have been no notable changes to control". I assume the Ukrainians are resting and regrouping before they start pushing forward once more. The rule of thumb seems to be that any sane group of troops, led by a sane commander, can push a week at a time at most, which broadly checks with the recent events in Ukraine’s north-east.
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Oct 13, 2022 20:22
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Zedsdeadbaby posted:BBC news is saying the Russians have ordered civilian evacuation of Kherson, so they're getting ready for a big fight. “Ordered” is a misleadingly strong word here. The day began with a plea of the “Russian governor” of Kherson to Kremlin - https://t.me/rbc_news/60422 - offering the locals to relocate if desired, and asking Kremlin to assist with that. In response - https://t.me/mkhusnullin/582 - vice-PM of Russia promised to help. While Kherson’s pro-Russian Telegrams seem to be more or less abuzz with totally not hysterical “we’re just relocating for relaxation”, we’re not in the territory of explicit mass evacuation orders yet.
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Oct 13, 2022 20:32
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KYOON GRIFFEY JR posted:France has probably the least ambiguous nuclear doctrine of any nuclear armed power, which is that they will use nuclear weapons in a countervalue first strike if France is sufficiently threatened. Now the threshold of threat is a bit ambiguous, but it probably requires an existential threat to France. Russia using tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine is not an existential threat to France and as one of the tweet people pointed out, Macron is just giving the correct doctrinaire response to the question. I'm not even sure what people think a hypothetical nuclear response from the West should be. Either you would hit Russian territory in which case you probably just started WW3 or you hit occupied territory in Ukraine in which case you just nuked... Ukraine. I don't think anyone believe France would or should do either so Macron saying it out loud doesn't change anything.
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Oct 13, 2022 20:55
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Jamsque posted:Remember the maintenance report on the Moskva that came to light a couple of months after it sank? I'm sure that on paper the boat defending the Kerch bridge has all sorts of anti-air, anti-ship, anti-dolphin, anti-whatever capabilities, but whether it can actually deploy those capabilities when needed is another question altogether. The less complex a system is, the more likely it is to be functional. There's nothing fancy on that guard boat. It's a simple boat with a few grenade launchers with fancy names, a machine gun, and an Igla for a dude to shoulder. I am sure it works fine. Whether it could prevent a meaningful attack on the bridge is another matter.
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Oct 13, 2022 20:57
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Zedsdeadbaby posted:BBC news is saying the Russians have ordered civilian evacuation of Kherson, so they're getting ready for a big fight. That really sucks. If its a reverse Mariupol the city will be destroyed.
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Oct 13, 2022 20:58
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FishBulbia posted:That really sucks. If its a reverse Mariupol the city will be destroyed. Maybe I'm wrong but I don't foresee Ukraine going for street-to-street fighting or trying to shell into a moonscape if they can avoid it.
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Oct 13, 2022 21:01
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FishBulbia posted:That really sucks. If its a reverse Mariupol the city will be destroyed. It is incredibly unlikely that Russian occupiers are as motivated to stick it out to the same degree Azov and the other units in Mariupol were. If Ukraine captures a bridgehead to the East, or drives towards Melitopol, Kherson won't be able to hold for long.
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Oct 13, 2022 21:02
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With the seasons changing, does it look like the war is also gonna change while it’s cold/muddy/snowy(?). I remember there being images of Russian vehicles getting bogged down in mud. Is that a consideration for advancing Ukrainians in the coming months? Similarly, is this going to be an issue when things get really cold? Images of Napoleon and the Wehrmacht come to mind but that was Moscow and this is southern/eastern Ukraine, not to mention shorter supply lines for Ukraine. In short: will winter slow ukraines advance by a large amount?
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Oct 13, 2022 21:05
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FishBulbia posted:That really sucks. If its a reverse Mariupol the city will be destroyed. I've yet to see Ukraine operate that way.
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Oct 13, 2022 21:06
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Question: does the dniepr freeze over in the south?
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Oct 13, 2022 21:08
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Deteriorata posted:I've yet to see Ukraine operate that way. They have yet to fight against dug in troops in a major city. Hopefully they won't have to and the Russians will run away as they have so far
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Oct 13, 2022 21:09
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Burns posted:Question: does the dniepr freeze over in the south? The average high temperature in Kherson in January is 34°F, so I would expect it would. The flowing water will work against it, so it might be patchy or thin in places. Probably solid enough to walk on, but I doubt cars or trucks would make it.
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Oct 13, 2022 21:13
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buglord posted:With the seasons changing, does it look like the war is also gonna change while it’s cold/muddy/snowy(?). I remember there being images of Russian vehicles getting bogged down in mud. Is that a consideration for advancing Ukrainians in the coming months? Mud season will force a slowdown in the autumn, but then things will likely start back up again once the ground freezes and will support the weight of vehicles again. Cold will be a factor but it can be protected against with good gear. I suspect the Ukrainians will try to take a breather in areas where the mud is a factor, and prepare for a winter offensive.
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Oct 13, 2022 21:14
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steinrokkan posted:They have yet to fight against dug in troops in a major city. Hopefully they won't have to and the Russians will run away as they have so far Actually, they have - Izium and Lyman, for example. Their technique is to surround the city and cut off resupply, so as to force the Russians to retreat or surrender. The whole Kharkiv offensive was done that way. They avoided any direct confrontations whenever possible.
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Oct 13, 2022 21:15
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buglord posted:With the seasons changing, does it look like the war is also gonna change while it’s cold/muddy/snowy(?). I remember there being images of Russian vehicles getting bogged down in mud. Is that a consideration for advancing Ukrainians in the coming months? yes, this part of the world is pretty famous for having gnarly winter weather not only are the winters long and cold as gently caress, which causes problems for military operations as you have to spend a lot of time keeping your troops warm and sheltered, winter itself is bracketed by periods of mud - rain in the fall and a tremendous amount of mud in the spring as the accumulated snow melts. russia ran into this problem with their initial invasion, delayed for reasons unknown (the winter olympics and not wanting to steal the spotlight from a friendly neighbor, china?) until the spring thaw happened and bogged down part of the opening offensive ukraine's counterattack will likely be slowed in winter, as winter is traditionally a time to dig in and wait for better weather, especially if where you're operating is dangerously cold - there are some notable exceptions to this guideline though
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Oct 13, 2022 21:17
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