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buglord posted:With the seasons changing, does it look like the war is also gonna change while it’s cold/muddy/snowy(?). I remember there being images of Russian vehicles getting bogged down in mud. Is that a consideration for advancing Ukrainians in the coming months? Canada is sending a huge aid package to Ukraine, and it includes C$15m of winter gear. Other western countries are sending winter gear over as well.
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Oct 13, 2022 21:20
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Southern Ukraine isn't super cold. I mean it's not like California with fake winters but we aren't talking about your piss freezing before it reaches the ground.  The bridge has to go. As we've seen, it can be blown up during the night with minimal civilian casualties. vvvv mobby_6kl fucked around with this message at 21:28 on Oct 13, 2022 |
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Oct 13, 2022 21:24
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Inferior Third Season posted:The bridge is a major means of transporting Russian military assets to occupied Ukrainian territories. It is absolutely a military target. So do you think there's a lot of civilian families spending time on aircraft carriers? Do you not realize that a significant amount of the people using a bridge would be civilians? (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Oct 13, 2022 21:24
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Burns posted:Question: does the dniepr freeze over in the south? Yes, but not strongly enough to even have a safe and confident car ride on ice, unless it’s been sub-zero for like 2 months. buglord posted:In short: will winter slow ukraines advance by a large amount? Yes. Deteriorata posted:Actually, they have - Izium and Lyman, for example. Their technique is to surround the city and cut off resupply, so as to force the Russians to retreat or surrender. The whole Kharkiv offensive was done that way. They avoided any direct confrontations whenever possible. 2 tiny, deserted towns housing 40k and 20k at peace time respectively. Not even remotely comparable to Kherson. cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 21:30 on Oct 13, 2022 |
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Oct 13, 2022 21:28
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Edit - nm.
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Oct 13, 2022 21:35
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https://mobile.twitter.com/notabanderite/status/1580646785713721344 This was interesting (quote attached for the English summary). With auto translate the long Hebrew thread goes into more detail about how Ukraine avoids fighting in cities by taking the road intersections and forcing Russia to withdraw.
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Oct 13, 2022 21:36
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mobby_6kl posted:Southern Ukraine isn't super cold. I mean it's not like California with fake winters but we aren't talking about your piss freezing before it reaches the ground. -4 to -2 celsius is lethal. In the UK dozens of homeless people die every winter from the cold which tends to be 0 degrees overnight. There's almost certainly a not-insignificant number of Russian soldiers sleeping rough or in poor conditions during their stay in Ukraine.
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Oct 13, 2022 21:37
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Deteriorata posted:The average high temperature in Kherson in January is 34°F, so I would expect it would. The flowing water will work against it, so it might be patchy or thin in places. Probably solid enough to walk on, but I doubt cars or trucks would make it. Ukraine is really not that cold, especially not Kherson. Kharkiv is similar weather to Chicago and Kherson is about the same as Pittsburgh. It’s chilly but not even remotely arctic. Rivers also are pretty challenging to freeze over, especially deep ones and/or fast moving ones. The January 24h average -1 in Kherson. The 24h avg in Stalingrad is -6; those 5 degrees extra make a huge difference. Might there be a cold snap that makes it possible to walk across? Reasonably likely, but it’s not going to be crossed in heavy trucks, no unless we get a freak once in a century coldsnap, which global warming is making ever so less likely. E: Kherson also gets an average 1.3 inches / 3cm a year of snow - less than Nashville, although when it falls it’ll last longer since you rarely get huge temperature swings like you get in the US. Like total, for all winter. North Americans tend to have super wrong impressions of how snowy and cold Europe is. Saladman fucked around with this message at 21:43 on Oct 13, 2022 |
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Oct 13, 2022 21:37
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Deteriorata posted:The average high temperature in Kherson in January is 34°F, so I would expect it would. The flowing water will work against it, so it might be patchy or thin in places. Probably solid enough to walk on, but I doubt cars or trucks would make it. That's not nearly enough to freeze a major river. For a lake to freeze sufficiently that I would risk it, I would first want a period of at least one week of -20C (-4F) temperatures every night. But anywhere with even a slight current, nnnn-nope, especially a big river like Dnipro can be treacherous and vicinity to sea also evens out the extreme temperatures a bit. For reference, the small Aura river in southern Finland freezes just about every winter, but only seldom does it get so solid that people dare to go walking on it because you can't really tell where the ice is thick enough to carry you and where your foot will go through and whether there is another layer of ice under or just water all the way down.
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Oct 13, 2022 21:41
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Saladman posted:Ukraine is really not that cold, especially not Kherson. Kharkiv is similar weather to Chicago and Kherson is about the same as Pittsburgh. It’s chilly but not even remotely arctic. Rivers also are pretty challenging to freeze over, especially deep ones and/or fast moving ones. The January 24h average -1 in Kherson. The 24h avg in Stalingrad is -6; those 5 degrees extra make a huge difference. http://www.encyclopediaofukraine.com/display.asp?linkpath=pages%5CD%5CN%5CDniproRiver.htm quote:In winter the Dnipro freezes over, usually after a 20-day spell of subzero temperature. The average freezing and thawing dates for Kyiv are 17 December and 24 March; for Cherkasy, 23 December and 22 March; for Zaporizhia, 5 January and 9 March; for Kherson, 3 January and 3 March. The ice regime is not stable: sometimes the Dnipro freezes for short intervals, and sometimes it does not freeze at all. Ice jams and floods resulting from them are rare because the freezing moves southward and the thawing northward.
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Oct 13, 2022 21:41
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Deteriorata posted:http://www.encyclopediaofukraine.com/display.asp?linkpath=pages%5CD%5CN%5CDniproRiver.htm I’m not sure if you posted that to agree or to disagree with me, but a river freezing over does not mean what I think you think it means. There’s ice on the riverbanks and a thin veneer of ice, and there’s actually frozen solid. Like what you just linked said it does not meaningfully freeze over most years.
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Oct 13, 2022 21:44
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Saladman posted:I’m not sure if you posted that to agree or to disagree with me, but a river freezing over does not mean what I think you think it means. There’s ice on the riverbanks and a thin veneer of ice, and there’s actually frozen solid. That's exactly what I said. It may be patchy, and perhaps possible to walk on. It depends on the severity of the winter and is not terribly predictable. Can we leave this alone now?
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Oct 13, 2022 21:47
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Saladman posted:
I was born in Odesa, and when I came to US as a teen I was like a little kid over all the snow where I ended up (Upstate NY....), since I saw it very little during my actual little-kid phase. Still, you kinda have to distinguish cold for person living in a warm house and going to work or school nicely dressed up and someone living in a trench. What's mild for the first group is hardly mild for the latter.
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Oct 13, 2022 21:51
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Zedsdeadbaby posted:Canada is sending a huge aid package to Ukraine, and it includes C$15m of winter gear. Other western countries are sending winter gear over as well. There is a yt channel called Survival Russia i watched some years back. Dude lived out near the Taiga or some such. He tested Canadian winter gear and was very impressed with it. Apparently our winter gear is pretty good.
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Oct 13, 2022 21:51
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Deteriorata posted:That's exactly what I said. It may be patchy, and perhaps possible to walk on. It depends on the severity of the winter and is not terribly predictable. Yeah my bad, I thought you were implying that it was going to be a likely route for soldiers to cross on foot for the entire winter. E: I also don't mean to be a dick about 'lol North Americans think Europe is cold and snowy'. Europeans also think that the US is a lot warmer than it is. I don't think any Swiss would guess that upstate New York would get more snow than Chamonix and Zermatt. Saladman fucked around with this message at 21:59 on Oct 13, 2022 |
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Oct 13, 2022 21:52
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buglord posted:In short: will winter slow ukraines advance by a large amount? Well it's hard to imagine the Ukraine army doing any of those crazy Vehicle charges when everything is mud, then snow, but it's good to remember the Ukraine army seems like it will have plenty of quality winter gear and supplies, while the Russian army by most accounts is sending out their soldiers with close to bugger all of anything. As well the Ukraine army are fighting as they have something to fight for, so will probably be more okay we roughing it out in harsher conditions, where as the Russian army by and large seem to be as they are pretty much being forced to go. I would also Imagine this would make them much more likely to surrender if it's a choice between that and hypothermia. Very much hoping this is the case. So maybe I'm being optimistic, but I think winter may not be as big of a problem for the Ukraine army than lot of people think.
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Oct 13, 2022 21:54
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Zedsdeadbaby posted:Canada is sending a huge aid package to Ukraine, and it includes C$15m of winter gear. Other western countries are sending winter gear over as well. I can't find the link right now, but I'm pretty sure Finland pledged to send over winter gear worth a certain amount as well. Speaking of, for those who personally want to contribute to keeping the Ukrainians warm, Saint Javelin is still raising funds in order to buy winter clothing and medical equipment for Ukrainian soldiers.  (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Oct 13, 2022 22:04
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I thought power infrastructure has been under attack for a while now? Is that a factor for the upcoming winter for the civilian population? Cold weather gear is one thing, being able to keep warm at home is another. Maybe most places have wood fired stoves or some other backup.
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Oct 13, 2022 22:05
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Most stuff got restored, but Russia may try again, and some people have literal holes in their homes...
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Oct 13, 2022 22:08
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Owling Howl posted:I'm not even sure what people think a hypothetical nuclear response from the West should be. Either you would hit Russian territory in which case you probably just started WW3 or you hit occupied territory in Ukraine in which case you just nuked... Ukraine. Did I miss the prohibition on Clancychat lifting? The short ‘answer’ is that NATO is doing everything right. Marcon’s statement are well within what NATO has been saying both publicly and, I am guessing, privately. NATO is not in the ending the world business, unless the Russian Federation or some other nuclear power uses nuclear weapons against a NATO state. So if the world is going to end over Ukraine, Russia can start it and NATO will be happy to oblige in ending the human race. Because NATO is not in the ending the human race business, if the Russian Federation were to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine, there will be an overwhelming kinetic response by NATO. Meaning, NATO will at a minimum use it’s overwhelming conventional air power to destroy the Russian Federations ability to make war on Ukraine, and potentially any of its neighbors. Whether or not that response would also mean direct intervention by “boots on the ground” in Ukraine is unknown to everyone, but NATO and the Russian Federation who by all reports has been told in great detail through diplomatic channels exactly what that overwhelming conventional response is likely to look like.
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Oct 13, 2022 22:25
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FishBulbia posted:That really sucks. If its a reverse Mariupol the city will be destroyed. I don't think Ukraine has any need to do that. Anyone who lives in the Antonivka suburb should probably get out while the getting is good, but once Ukraine captures that there is no point in actually fighting for the city itself.
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Oct 13, 2022 22:38
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ZombieLenin posted:Did I miss the prohibition on Clancychat lifting? No, you did not, for it remains in place.
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Oct 13, 2022 22:50
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https://twitter.com/sssmirnov/status/1580551632101986308 Companies are haggling with military commissariats over mobilisation “contributions”. 
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Oct 14, 2022 00:17
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https://twitter.com/thetimes/status/1580438311742894080 It's really weird to me that The Times, an ostensibly high-profile newspaper, would publish a full-on story based on nothing but the claims of the UA Defense Ministry. This isn't the first time this newspaper has done this, iirc.
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Oct 14, 2022 00:25
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smug n stuff posted:https://twitter.com/thetimes/status/1580438311742894080 Journalistic standards have been on pause for everybody
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Oct 14, 2022 00:31
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Belarus has announced a "counter terrorism operation period against provocations" https://ria.ru/20221014/belorussiya-1823879187.html
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Oct 14, 2022 00:37
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smug n stuff posted:https://twitter.com/thetimes/status/1580438311742894080 I don't really understand what you're complaining about. It accurately reports that Ukrainian officials claim it happened. It's also not a full-on story, just four short paragraphs.
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Oct 14, 2022 00:38
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Kraftwerk posted:I wonder if Korea’s defence industry is having a rally in their stock and financial performance with all these defence contracts being thrown around. Could they potentially become a major arms producing country to backfill the gaps left by Russia? they already are MikeC posted:The most commonly suggested and hintrd response to a Russian WMD attack would be full scale participation of NATO forces on Ukrainian soil. This likely means a massive wave of conventional missile strikes on Russian logistical units and infrastructure in Ukraine and the full deployment of NATO aircraft to strike Russian troops and facilitate Ukrainian offensives to fully eject Russian troops from Ukraine. It is also suggested that what remains of the Black Sea Fleet will also be sent to the bottom in the event it tries to exit port. Small addendum here of 'also if they stay in port' but yeah that's the gist of it. The unambiguous central message is 'you will get completely hosed if you go through with this' and for the last ~two months American and NATO generals have been cold calling Russian generals to explain to them precisely what will happen. I guess they're trying to avoid the tendency for military signaling to either be missed or misinterpreted. Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 00:57 on Oct 14, 2022 |
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Oct 14, 2022 00:46
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https://mobile.twitter.com/MarquardtA/status/1580700683011264512 I am confused as to how it costs him anything to operate given the satellites are already there and are powered by sunlight, the only operational cost would be bandwidth of internet connection.
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Oct 14, 2022 00:52
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Deteriorata posted:I don't really understand what you're complaining about. It accurately reports that Ukrainian officials claim it happened. You're right that it's not that big of a story. It just seems very credulous to me! The headline does not qualify the claim at all: "Ukraine shoots down four Russian helicopters in less than 20 minutes." (e: I know that journalists do not control headlines). I would prefer that journalists generally not just re-print press releases from state agencies.
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Oct 14, 2022 00:55
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OddObserver posted:https://mobile.twitter.com/MarquardtA/status/1580700683011264512 They claim there's 20000 terminals in Ukraine and it will cost 400 million to fund for 12 months which implies Starlink service costs $1650/month per terminal.
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Oct 14, 2022 00:57
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Owling Howl posted:They claim there's 20000 terminals in Ukraine and it will cost 400 million to fund for 12 months which implies Starlink service costs $1650/month per terminal. I will give him the caveat that Ukrainian units are likely getting significantly more man-hours of support behind them than your typical American family.
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Oct 14, 2022 00:59
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Owling Howl posted:They claim there's 20000 terminals in Ukraine and it will cost 400 million to fund for 12 months which implies Starlink service costs $1650/month per terminal. I can see him wanting to charge the Pentagon that (good luck getting private customer at that!), but the claim of loses implies operational costs of that magnitude, which is nuts. They have a lot of capital costs for the satellite network, but that's independent of whether anyone actually uses it not.
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Oct 14, 2022 01:00
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OddObserver posted:I am confused as to how it costs him anything to operate given the satellites are already there and are powered by sunlight, the only operational cost would be bandwidth of internet connection. Yeah so I am assuming he is talking about bandwidth costs -which actually is limited by the number of satellites in orbit and their total bandwidth capacity- and using clever accounting to calm lost potential revenue or some such. 100m sounds very high though. Depends how many accounts/how much they're using and I think they said they sent a bunch of dishes (which I'm pretty US army did pay for). I mean it is also over what 8 months? Still I was going to say maybe all their drones are using it, but nah you need the dish. It is really hard to figure out even some remotely plausible math on this one. It definitely seems highly exaggerated, at best.
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Oct 14, 2022 01:04
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Cool, nationalize Starlink. Musk wanting to start poo poo with one of his biggest customers is really goddamn dumb.
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Oct 14, 2022 01:07
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OddObserver posted:I can see him wanting to charge the Pentagon that (good luck getting private customer at that!), but the claim of loses implies operational costs of that magnitude, which is nuts. They have a lot of capital costs for the satellite network, but that's independent of whether anyone actually uses it not. They already sell a version of Starlink for private customers with yachts that costs $5000/month.
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Oct 14, 2022 01:17
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Owling Howl posted:They claim there's 20000 terminals in Ukraine and it will cost 400 million to fund for 12 months which implies Starlink service costs $1650/month per terminal. quote:SpaceX says it has paid for about 70% of the service provided to Ukraine and claims to have offered that highest level – $4,500 a month – to all terminals in Ukraine despite the majority only having signed on for the cheaper $500 per month service. E: also that means they’re already getting paid $1350/mo per terminal just for service fees, right? WithoutTheFezOn fucked around with this message at 02:08 on Oct 14, 2022 |
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Oct 14, 2022 02:05
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Weird how the week after he talked to Putin and proposed that Ukraine surrender, only for everyone to say that would be stupid, that all of a sudden this service becomes too much to keep up.
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Oct 14, 2022 02:10
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“Talked to Putin” thing stands on thin legs, as with many other Musk’s embellishments. Given that, I’d like to avoid overanalysing his politics in this thread, and focus on the more tangible, like this weird attempt to shake down Pentagon in order to garner negative PR for the Starlink service. As silly as it sounds, the most likely explanation here to me is that Musk irks really upset about getting ratioed by Zelenskyy in a poll on his own account.
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Oct 14, 2022 02:19
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OddObserver posted:I can see him wanting to charge the Pentagon that (good luck getting private customer at that!), but the claim of loses implies operational costs of that magnitude, which is nuts. They have a lot of capital costs for the satellite network, but that's independent of whether anyone actually uses it not. If I were the Pentagon I'd say, "Sure, right after you disclose exact numbers of your losses in your SEC filings." Then nationalize it under the military protection act or whatever it's called.
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Oct 14, 2022 02:30
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