Middle East Thread: Clarissa Explains the Fall

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > Middle East Thread: Clarissa Explains the Fall

V. Illych L.: Apr 11, 2008; ASK ME ABOUT LUMBER

yeah i suspect that for saudi arabia in general, all PR is bad PR since his initial charm offensive culminating in him acting very publicly like a cartoon villain

it is interesting to note that his liberalisation efforts have been more than skin deep, though, to the point of actually neutering the state apparatus of social control. i also wasn't aware of this. is he making a play for popularity among what passes for the saudi middle class, or is he just assessing that the salafists are weak enough that he doesn't have to keep them happy?

# ? Sep 25, 2022 20:39

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# ? May 25, 2024 11:43

Randarkman: Jul 18, 2011

V. Illych L. posted:

it is interesting to note that his liberalisation efforts have been more than skin deep, though, to the point of actually neutering the state apparatus of social control. i also wasn't aware of this. is he making a play for popularity among what passes for the saudi middle class, or is he just assessing that the salafists are weak enough that he doesn't have to keep them happy?

It doesn't really have to be an exclusive between those two, does it? It does seem that, like in Iran having a bunch of creeps marching around telling people what to do isn't going to be popular, especially after they got a bunch of young girls killed in a fire for effectively nothing. Throwing them under the bus then seems like it should generate some relatively cheap legitimacy and popular support.

Then it also has benefit for the monarchy of stripping away one of the main expressions of power for the religious establishment, which would help them possibly establish and maintain an independent power base. And yeah, probably because at some point a couple years ago they figured that it was actually possible, because it seems like an issue has been that court politics and other issues basically worked to protect the religious police to continue operating.

I really do need to read up on Saudi Arabia's recent history and its internal politics, it's a subject I'm far less familiar with than I find that I would like. I did know that the "salafist theocracy" image of it all wasn't as old as many imagine, much of it coming into place in the aftermath of 1979, in a somewhat curious parallel to Iran. Though unlike Iran with its Islamic Revolution and subsequent takeover by the clergy, the Saudis went hard into appeasing the salafist hardliners in order to maintain the monarchy.

# ? Sep 25, 2022 21:19

freeasinbeer: Mar 26, 2015; by Fluffdaddy

Randarkman posted:

It doesn't really have to be an exclusive between those two, does it? It does seem that, like in Iran having a bunch of creeps marching around telling people what to do isn't going to be popular, especially after they got a bunch of young girls killed in a fire for effectively nothing. Throwing them under the bus then seems like it should generate some relatively cheap legitimacy and popular support.

Then it also has benefit for the monarchy of stripping away one of the main expressions of power for the religious establishment, which would help them possibly establish and maintain an independent power base. And yeah, probably because at some point a couple years ago they figured that it was actually possible, because it seems like an issue has been that court politics and other issues basically worked to protect the religious police to continue operating.

I really do need to read up on Saudi Arabia's recent history and its internal politics, it's a subject I'm far less familiar with than I find that I would like. I did know that the "salafist theocracy" image of it all wasn't as old as many imagine, much of it coming into place in the aftermath of 1979, in a somewhat curious parallel to Iran. Though unlike Iran with its Islamic Revolution and subsequent takeover by the clergy, the Saudis went hard into appeasing the salafist hardliners in order to maintain the monarchy.

Maintaining the monarchy is the key there; they tolerated the hardliners because the siege of Mecca scared the hell out of them and made them very nervous about an internal uprising, at least insofar as I�ve ever read about.

When the kingdom was founded they use the religious hardliners to take the various kingdoms, but then fought a civil war against them with using tribes that were allied to them.

The siege of Mecca was lead by hardliners from those traditional allied tribes(although a very small subset), so if the tribes and hardliners were against them they were screwed.

Westerner trained forces that were a bailiwick against the hardliner religious authorities also got wrecked in stupid assaults, so suddenly the hardliners looked way more powerful.

All in all the saudi equals whabbisem or salafist, is a simplification of a hundred years of internal Saudi politics.

Edit: Everyone sucks here, but it�s more nuanced then just saudis support extremist versions of Islam. They support them but because of internal politics and would be much happier being lovely monarchs who can do whatever they want.

freeasinbeer fucked around with this message at 22:27 on Sep 25, 2022

# ? Sep 25, 2022 22:21

V. Illych L.: Apr 11, 2008; ASK ME ABOUT LUMBER

yeah as far as i can tell the alliance with the salafists was both useful as a foreign policy tool and for managing internal dissent - the weird thing is that the internal power of hard-line clergy has presumably waned by quite a bit, which i don't quite understand - i thought that the salafis remained well-organised and important to the general legitimacy of the regime, if for no other reason than that stuff would start blowing up inside the country if they got too pissed off

# ? Sep 25, 2022 22:23

Randarkman: Jul 18, 2011

V. Illych L. posted:

yeah as far as i can tell the alliance with the salafists was both useful as a foreign policy tool and for managing internal dissent - the weird thing is that the internal power of hard-line clergy has presumably waned by quite a bit, which i don't quite understand - i thought that the salafis remained well-organised and important to the general legitimacy of the regime, if for no other reason than that stuff would start blowing up inside the country if they got too pissed off

I think that's kind of a problem with trying to get a handle on stuff that happens in Saudi politics and why, it's generally going to be a "behind closed doors" affair and the immediate reasons for anything is not going to be immediately obvious to an outside observer, and even with time will probably still be relatively opaque unless you get access to alot of credible correspondence or insider accounts.

# ? Sep 25, 2022 22:32

freeasinbeer: Mar 26, 2015; by Fluffdaddy

V. Illych L. posted:

yeah as far as i can tell the alliance with the salafists was both useful as a foreign policy tool and for managing internal dissent - the weird thing is that the internal power of hard-line clergy has presumably waned by quite a bit, which i don't quite understand - i thought that the salafis remained well-organised and important to the general legitimacy of the regime, if for no other reason than that stuff would start blowing up inside the country if they got too pissed off

Based on my reading of stuff around the siege of mecca, it was almost a marriage of connivence. The royal family could do whatever they wanted and the hardliners would manage terrorism. When the terrorism started to flair up both internal and externally, my perception is the social contract was lost and the royal family was being bothered by 9/11 and the last decade. Ultimately I guess MBS decided that they weren�t living up to the bargain and tossed them out.

I guess they were backed into a corner in 79, and said gently caress it as long as you leave the he royal family and don�t cause problems, we don�t care. But I guess I�m trying to say is I don�t think the royal family have a poo poo beyond that, and really weren�t that strongly beholden to them once push came to shove.

Edit: tl;dr they weren�t ideological fellow travelers and unless the monarchy is feeling threatened they are natural foes. All sides suck still though.

freeasinbeer fucked around with this message at 02:11 on Sep 26, 2022

# ? Sep 25, 2022 22:34

Randarkman: Jul 18, 2011

Another thing that appears signfiicant and ties in with what you pointed out was important, namely "maintaining the monarchy" is that those hardliners from the religious establishment and people associated with the sahwa awakening movement in general have also been consistent in criticizing corruption in the government, calling for the monarchy to share power and reform and criticizing the alliance with the US and the presence of Western military in the Arabian peninsula.

So yeah, if you think about it, in the long run the monarchy was probably going to attempt to rid itself of their influence, and if they could do that while seeming to lax social controls and strike down the unpopular religious police... well, all the better really.

# ? Sep 26, 2022 03:38

Wheeljack: Jul 12, 2021

Randarkman posted:

Young people in cities are also probably not as monolithic a group as that statement often assumes. It also bears mentioning that while not incorrect the observations about Iran's incredibly large and young population are somewhat dated, it was more true in the 90s than it is now, if you look at more recent population breakdowns 30-40 year olds seem to be the largest contingent of the population now and the population is getting steadily older. Also about the urban population, that's also often a thing that's overemphasized, something like 40% of Iran is still rural.

I think there is a tendency for lots of quick hopeful analyses of Iran based on what they think the country and population is like to be oversimplified and sometimes just flat out wrong and based on stuff that was more true in the 90s than today.

It also feels like the "Demographics are destiny" notion, so popular in some media circles but so often shot down by reality.

# ? Sep 26, 2022 04:29

freeasinbeer: Mar 26, 2015; by Fluffdaddy

Randarkman posted:

Another thing that appears signfiicant and ties in with what you pointed out was important, namely "maintaining the monarchy" is that those hardliners from the religious establishment and people associated with the sahwa awakening movement in general have also been consistent in criticizing corruption in the government, calling for the monarchy to share power and reform and criticizing the alliance with the US and the presence of Western military in the Arabian peninsula.

So yeah, if you think about it, in the long run the monarchy was probably going to attempt to rid itself of their influence, and if they could do that while seeming to lax social controls and strike down the unpopular religious police... well, all the better really.

Yeah if I�m MBS and I�m far enough removed from 79, do I just get tired of them both from the internal issues with them like the religious police, the implicit criticism of my lifestyle, as well as the external issues like allying with Israel.

Now if something like 79 kicked off, like seeing Yemen invade, or they perceived issues with the internal Shia population, would they immediately turn back to the hardliners for support? Yeah most likely.

# ? Sep 26, 2022 04:46

Herstory Begins Now: Aug 5, 2003; SOME REALLY TEDIOUS DUMB SHIT THAT SUCKS ASS TO READ ->>

worth remembering that the 'reforms' a couple years ago were simultaneously a crack down on opposition figures while publicly making an appearance of lightening restrictions. #1 reason it happened was MBS realizing that he had a huge image problem.

# ? Sep 26, 2022 08:37

i say swears online: Mar 4, 2005

it is kinda funny MBS could have been king goon for life but had independent media chopped up for little reason

# ? Sep 26, 2022 09:11

Randarkman: Jul 18, 2011

i say swears online posted:

it is kinda funny MBS could have been king goon for life but had independent media chopped up for little reason

Not fair, dude was big a big old meanie.

# ? Sep 26, 2022 13:03

Charlotte Hornets: Dec 30, 2011; by Fritz the Horse

https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/status/1574358733769117701?cxt=HHwWisC8taq7n9krAAAA

Seems the TOWs from some pretty recent US package have made their way to the battlefield

# ? Sep 26, 2022 14:37

Absurd Alhazred: Mar 27, 2010; by Athanatos

Kharkiv is in the Middle East now?

# ? Sep 26, 2022 15:50

mobby_6kl: Aug 9, 2009; by Fluffdaddy

Absurd Alhazred posted:

Kharkiv is in the Middle East now?

Middle East of Ukraine, at least

# ? Sep 26, 2022 16:20

Nenonen: Oct 22, 2009; Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

Absurd Alhazred posted:

Kharkiv is in the Middle East now?

It used to belong to an Ottoman vassal, so naturally.

# ? Sep 26, 2022 16:21

Elyv: Jun 14, 2013

does anyone know if there's any truth to the rumors that Khamenei is sick/dead?

I suppose if someone did know they wouldn't be posting it on the something awful forums but I figured I'd ask anyway

# ? Oct 3, 2022 06:13

i say swears online: Mar 4, 2005

what rumors? which article or tweet reported it? sick/dead is the name of a ska band, not a news item

# ? Oct 3, 2022 06:34

Elyv: Jun 14, 2013

This is where I first saw it https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-crisis-update-september-28

# ? Oct 3, 2022 06:39

i say swears online: Mar 4, 2005

Elyv posted:

This is where I first saw it https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-crisis-update-september-28

that sources this nyt article from a couple weeks ago

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/16/world/middleeast/irans-supreme-leader-ayatollah-ali-khamenei-ill.html

quote:

Iran�s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, canceled all meetings and public appearances last week after falling gravely ill and is currently on bed rest under observation by a team of doctors, according to four people familiar with his health situation.

Ayatollah Khamenei, 83, had surgery sometime last week for bowel obstruction after suffering extreme stomach pains and high fever, one of the people said. The four people, two of whom are based in Iran, including one who has close ties with the country�s Revolutionary Guards, requested anonymity for discussing a sensitive issue like Ayatollah Khamenei�s health.

Ayatollah Khamenei underwent the surgery at a clinic set up at his home and office complex and is being monitored around the clock by a team of doctors, the person familiar with the operation said. The ayatollah�s condition was considered critical last week but has improved, and he is currently resting, the person said. His doctors remain concerned that he is too weak to even sit up in bed.

As supreme leader, Ayatollah Khamenei wields huge authority in Iran and would be the final arbiter on issues like the nuclear deal that is currently being negotiated with the United States. A former president of Iran and prot�g� of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the founder of the revolution that led to the creation of the Islamic Republic of Iran in 1979, Ayatollah Khamenei assumed the position of the country�s top religious, political and military authority in 1989.

The Tasnim news agency, affiliated with the Revolutionary Guards, posted a brief item on Friday saying that the ayatollah would attend a religious ceremony with university students on Saturday. But it wasn�t clear if it would take place, given his health.

Ayatollah Khamenei traveled to the religious city of Mashhad about two weeks ago to perform a ritual known as dust cleaning at the Imam Reza shrine in Mashhad. He went into a secluded area of the shrine, cleaned it and placed his head on a tombstone in a sign of prayer and submission. A photo of him at the shrine was published by Iranian media.

Ayatollah Khamenei told the people traveling with him that it might be his last time at the shrine, given his age, according to one of the four people, who was familiar with the details of his trip. He got sick soon after arriving back in Tehran, and his situation deteriorated over the past week, the person said.

His office canceled all meetings last week and also an important annual meeting with the Assembly of Experts � the body that will decide his replacement once he dies � on Sept. 6 because he was too ill to sit up, according to four people familiar with his health condition.

A member of the Assembly of Experts, Hashem Hashemzadeh Harissi, told an Iranian newspaper that �in this round, unlike previous rounds, the members of the Assembly of Experts did not meet with the supreme leader� because it would �be a heavy burden on him.�

interesting! dude's old and wouldn't surprise me but these sources seem kinda flimsy. gotta say i'm not a fan of the 'given' in the fifth paragraph

quote:

Regime power centers are behaving as if succession is either imminent or underway. President Ebrahim Raisi�a prominent frontrunner to succeed Khamenei�is positioning himself to become the next supreme leader with support from senior officers from the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC).

frankly this assertion sparked notice but it's very poorly sourced

i say swears online fucked around with this message at 07:03 on Oct 3, 2022

# ? Oct 3, 2022 06:58

Randarkman: Jul 18, 2011

The rumors are given further credence by the fact that he hasn't shown himself throughout this entire crisis as far as I'm aware.

# ? Oct 3, 2022 12:04

Mr Luxury Yacht: Apr 16, 2012

Whose the most likely successor after Khamenei anyway?

# ? Oct 3, 2022 12:51

Dr Kool-AIDS: Mar 26, 2004

Mr Luxury Yacht posted:

Whose the most likely successor after Khamenei anyway?

Like the article said, Raisi's probably the frontrunner since he's both the current president and a hardliner who's well regarded by Khamenei. In a country remotely responsive to the people they'd obviously steer away from him after the protests resulting from his enforcement of strict hijab policies, but hardcore aligning himself with the Basij probably matters more if he wants the promotion.

His main drawback other than being a polarizing figure is probably that he's not the religious scholar that Khomeini or Khamenei were.

# ? Oct 3, 2022 13:04

Elyv: Jun 14, 2013

Dr Kool-AIDS posted:

Like the article said, Raisi's probably the frontrunner since he's both the current president and a hardliner who's well regarded by Khamenei. In a country remotely responsive to the people they'd obviously steer away from him after the protests resulting from his enforcement of strict hijab policies, but hardcore aligning himself with the Basij probably matters more if he wants the promotion.

His main drawback other than being a polarizing figure is probably that he's not the religious scholar that Khomeini or Khamenei were.

according to this reuters article, the main contenders are Raisi and Khamenei's second son, Mojtaba

relevant blurb:

quote:

But the fact that the unrest coincided with rumours about his ailing health -- he is 83 -- has only made matters worse, since the faction-ridden elite has been preoccupied with his eventual succession, the analysts and official said.

Although in theory an 86-member body known as the Assembly of Experts will choose the next leader, high level negotiations and jockeying for influence have already begun, making it difficult for the establishment to unite around a set of security tactics.

"This race has caused disarray inside the leadership. The deepening rift is the last thing we need when the country is in turmoil," said a hardline official.

"The main issue right now is the Islamic Republic's survival."

Khamenei himself has been silent about the protests, which quickly grew into a revolt against what protesters said was the increasing authoritarianism of the ruling clerics.

The two names that come up most often in speculation about the succession are President Ebrahim Raisi and Khamenei's second son Mojtaba, said Karim Sadjadpour, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

"Neither of them has popular support, but what keeps the Islamic Republic in power is not popular support, but repression. Both men are deeply experienced in repression," he said.

TOUGHER MEASURES
Brazen protesters have directed anger at Mojtaba Khamenei, risking the wrath of his all-powerful father.

"Mojtaba, may you die and not become Supreme Leader," could be heard in videos from protests on Twitter.

# ? Oct 3, 2022 17:19

Wheeljack: Jul 12, 2021

https://www.politico.com/amp/news/2022/10/03/irans-supreme-leader-breaks-silence-on-protests-blames-us-00059981

Khamenei (not quite dead yet) spoke out for the first time� blaming the US and Zionism for the unrest. What a shock!

quote:

�Khamenei said he was �heartbroken� by the death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini in the custody of Iran�s morality police, which set off the nationwide protests. However, he sharply condemned the protests as a foreign plot to destabilize Iran, echoing authorities� previous comments.

�This rioting was planned,� he told a cadre of police students in Tehran. �These riots and insecurities were designed by America and the Zionist regime, and their employees.�

One can have a modern, civilized state that engages with the world community or one can have a state that sends thugs to beat women to death for not covering their hair and shoots people for complaining about it. Iran is clearly doubling down on the second option.

Wheeljack fucked around with this message at 20:52 on Oct 3, 2022

# ? Oct 3, 2022 18:26

mobby_6kl: Aug 9, 2009; by Fluffdaddy

The other article I read about this made it seem like Khamenei only "spoke" to state media. So for all we know he could be at room temperature right now.

https://www.haaretz.com/middle-east...c7-fff487380000

# ? Oct 3, 2022 18:37

Dr Kool-AIDS: Mar 26, 2004

Not burying him if he's dead would be extremely unIslamic, so I'm sure we'd know if he's dead.

# ? Oct 3, 2022 18:49

Elyv: Jun 14, 2013

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/14/world/middleeast/iran-zahedan-crackdown.html

quote:

Some of the wounded tried to crawl away to escape the gunfire. Others bled to death on prayer mats as people tried to drag them to safety.

But the snipers and officers kept pulling their triggers, firing bullet after bullet into men and young boys at a worship area where Friday Prayer had been underway.

The horrific scene unfolded on Sept. 30 in Zahedan, a city in southeastern Iran that is home to the ethnic Baluch minority, after a small group of worshipers emerged from the Great Mosalla prayer complex to confront security forces posted at a police station across the street.

The protesters chanted antigovernment slogans and threw rocks at the officers, prompting the security forces to fire indiscriminately into the crowd, according to witnesses. As the demonstrators scattered, the gunshots stalked their retreat back toward the complex, where thousands were still praying.

�It was a massacre I had only seen in movies,� said Jamshid, 28, a worshiper, who was reached by phone and identified himself only by his first name to avoid reprisals. �They started shooting as people still had their heads bowed in prayer.� Young men threw themselves in front of children and older people to shield them from the bullets, Jamshid said. �People had nowhere to go.�

The massacre, called �Bloody Friday� by residents, represents the most lethal government action since a crackdown began against nationwide demonstrations a month ago. Sixty-six to 96 people were killed over the course of the next several hours, according to local and international human rights groups, including Amnesty International.

# ? Oct 15, 2022 06:59

i say swears online: Mar 4, 2005

looks like a bunch of IRG got shot too so i think it was a real street battle

# ? Oct 15, 2022 07:26

Count Roland: Oct 6, 2013

I was kinda dismissive of this latest round of unrest as something like it crops up every few years in Iran. But this latest round is both sticking around and seeming to get pretty nasty/chaotic, even by the awful standards of the country.

# ? Oct 15, 2022 18:42

mobby_6kl: Aug 9, 2009; by Fluffdaddy

Yeah seems like things are escalating, if anything.

https://twitter.com/FridaGhitis/status/1581349672752656386

https://twitter.com/mamadporii/status/1581368889614925824

From the different tweets so far it's not super clear if there's a riot, the regime is just looking for an excuse to murder prisoners, a jailbreak, etc.

# ? Oct 15, 2022 21:01

Wheeljack: Jul 12, 2021

Count Roland posted:

I was kinda dismissive of this latest round of unrest as something like it crops up every few years in Iran. But this latest round is both sticking around and seeming to get pretty nasty/chaotic, even by the awful standards of the country.

This latest round of protests started not about policy or elections but a simple demand that the government not arbitrarily kill its citizens. They responded by killing more and more of them. So the people have their backs to the wall. Obey the government and die or resist and die.

# ? Oct 15, 2022 21:42

Count Roland: Oct 6, 2013

mobby_6kl posted:

Yeah seems like things are escalating, if anything.

https://twitter.com/FridaGhitis/status/1581349672752656386

https://twitter.com/mamadporii/status/1581368889614925824

From the different tweets so far it's not super clear if there's a riot, the regime is just looking for an excuse to murder prisoners, a jailbreak, etc.

I'm going to suggest that government forces didn't intentionally start a fire in their own prison. A fire and gunshots means at least a riot.

# ? Oct 15, 2022 21:47

Herstory Begins Now: Aug 5, 2003; SOME REALLY TEDIOUS DUMB SHIT THAT SUCKS ASS TO READ ->>

Count Roland posted:

I'm going to suggest that government forces didn't intentionally start a fire in their own prison. A fire and gunshots means at least a riot.

Evin is Iran's premier torture prison, it exists so the state can send people there to gently caress them up and to sow fear. I wouldn't make any assumptions in any direction without more information. If you're already torturing and disappearing your own people, killing a few more is not a huge leap.

# ? Oct 15, 2022 21:51

Dapper_Swindler: Feb 14, 2012; Im glad my instant dislike in you has been validated again and again.

Herstory Begins Now posted:

Evin is Iran's premier torture prison, it exists so the state can send people there to gently caress them up and to sow fear. I wouldn't make any assumptions in any direction without more information. If you're already torturing and disappearing your own people, killing a few more is not a huge leap.

i suspect the situation is was way worse for the regime then whats getting out and maybe some "march on the batille" type stuff is happening or happened and now they are just "purging" prisoners as quick as possible,

# ? Oct 15, 2022 22:22

mllaneza: Apr 28, 2007; Veteran, Bermuda Triangle Expeditionary Force, 1993-1952

mobby_6kl posted:

https://twitter.com/mamadporii/status/1581368889614925824

It looks like something is being launched into the prison. You can make out something rising up from about 3/4s of the way across the frame, go up pretty high and come down with a small explosion and flash of light.

# ? Oct 15, 2022 22:30

Count Roland: Oct 6, 2013

Herstory Begins Now posted:

Evin is Iran's premier torture prison, it exists so the state can send people there to gently caress them up and to sow fear. I wouldn't make any assumptions in any direction without more information. If you're already torturing and disappearing your own people, killing a few more is not a huge leap.

I'm not doubting they're killing people. I'm saying if they burn down their own prison they will have fewer places to house all the new political prisoners they're collecting.

# ? Oct 15, 2022 23:11

adebisi lives: Nov 11, 2009

Nah they clearly learned from the Russians to destroy their own critical infrastructure with false flag attacks. It's quite the strategy!

# ? Oct 16, 2022 00:17

Herstory Begins Now: Aug 5, 2003; SOME REALLY TEDIOUS DUMB SHIT THAT SUCKS ASS TO READ ->>

You can probably wait until you have absolutely any concrete information whatsoever to start absolving Iran.

# ? Oct 16, 2022 00:19

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# ? May 25, 2024 11:43

Elyv: Jun 14, 2013

mllaneza posted:

It looks like something is being launched into the prison. You can make out something rising up from about 3/4s of the way across the frame, go up pretty high and come down with a small explosion and flash of light.

The BBC article agrees with you

quote:

Another video appears to show objects being fired into the prison from outside its perimeter, and an explosion is then heard, according to BBC Persian.

it seems more likely to be protestors to me but apparently the government dumped hundreds of protestors here so they could be murdering people they don't like and blaming it on others

# ? Oct 16, 2022 01:54

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > Middle East Thread: Clarissa Explains the Fall

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