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There used to be even fewer Crimean Tatars, having been forcibly deported to Uzbekistan and other places by Stalin before WW2 even ended. They were slowly coming back but that mostly stopped when Russia illegally annexed the region in 2014. The population never recovered and theirs numbers are dwindling even more now because of forced conscription, the extent of which will probably only be known if Ukraine retakes Crimea.
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Oct 17, 2022 07:08
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FishBulbia posted:https://twitter.com/joshua_landis/status/1581329208235544579 Who is this Josh and should we give any attention to his opinions? What date are his figures from? It’s kind of a moot point to cite post-2014 numbers. It’d be like citing 2022 West Bank numbers to ignore all the demographic shifts happening due to colonial policies. And, all things considered, “yes because it’s legally Ukrainian regardless of who lives there”. Or does he think Mexico could invade California on the pretext that the Latino population is the largest in the state
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Oct 17, 2022 07:12
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Deltasquid posted:And, all things considered, “yes because it’s legally Ukrainian regardless of who lives there”. Or does he think Mexico could invade California on the pretext that the Latino population is the largest in the state I believe he's trying to make a very astute point about the unique dental care requirements of the peninsula.
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Oct 17, 2022 07:18
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Deltasquid posted:Who is this Josh and should we give any attention to his opinions? The entire comment section is dunking on him by showing how much of the current US was once owned by Mexico, haha.
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Oct 17, 2022 07:19
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Deltasquid posted:Who is this Josh and should we give any attention to his opinions? Isn't Zelenskyy himself an ethnic Russian, or at least from a Russian-speaking family? Just because someone is of a particular ethnic/cultural background doesn't mean they automatically support a particular country.
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Oct 17, 2022 07:19
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Perhaps he is commenting on the crystalline deposits that form over time in wine barrels.
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Oct 17, 2022 07:21
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Youth Decay posted:Isn't Zelenskyy himself an ethnic Russian, or at least from a Russian-speaking family? Just because someone is of a particular ethnic/cultural background doesn't mean they automatically support a particular country. Russian speaking. Ethnic Russian is a bit loaded. Like his parents aren't Russian immigrants.
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Oct 17, 2022 07:22
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Youth Decay posted:Isn't Zelenskyy himself an ethnic Russian, or at least from a Russian-speaking family? Just because someone is of a particular ethnic/cultural background doesn't mean they automatically support a particular country. He is Jewish and indeed was a primarily Russian speaker before his presidential run.
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Oct 17, 2022 07:24
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spankmeister posted:Perhaps he is commenting on the crystalline deposits that form over time in wine barrels. I could go for fried shad with crimean tartar and some fries. Yes as some people seem to be missing this, I posted this because the ethnic group is called Tatar, tartar is a sauce and something that happens if you dont brush. A nice vignette of some of the excellent expertise the war has brought to the forefront. FishBulbia fucked around with this message at 07:31 on Oct 17, 2022 |
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Oct 17, 2022 07:26
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Tartare is actually also a type of steak! https://dagelijksekost.een.be/gerechten/steak-tartaar-met-fijne-frieten
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Oct 17, 2022 07:32
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Charlz Guybon posted:What? China has never been a US ally. point is, New Delhi certainly felt it was true, with Indira Gandhi public noting the "extraordinary similarity of the attitudes adopted by the United States and China" during the Indo-Pakistani war and, really, this was what the US was up to: quote:... during Kissinger's [secret 19712] June trip to China, he had made a commitment to give Beijing "more detailed information on Indian armed forces, tank production, etc. through [a] private channel." Furthermore, his list of the outstanding commitments to China included that the US would consider supplying Pakistan with arms that China could not, and would consult with China regarding any "major change" in America's South Asia policy. there's a lot of conceits of foreign policy independence in this area, with India regularly denying that its own Indo-Soviet friendship treaty deviated from non-alignment
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Oct 17, 2022 08:04
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Some indication that Hungary is gonna ratify Sweden and Finland. Dunno how reliable of a source someone from the Hungarian "Party of European Socialists" is, considering it's Orban's party that has all the power. Hopefully true though. This would leave only Turkey.quote:Hungary, one of the two NATO member states that have not yet approved the bloc’s expansion, will ratify the protocol on the accession of Finland and Sweden to NATO on October 24, Eero Heinaluoma, a member of the European Parliament and former chairman of the Finnish Social Democratic Party, said on Sunday.
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Oct 17, 2022 08:56
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There was never any real doubt that Hungary would have to approve them eventually, right? If Hungary threatened to leave, my main response would be "lol," like if my four year old threatened to leave the house and go off into the world on their own. Turkey seems like a much bigger stumbling block though, since NATO needs Turkey about as much as Turkey needs NATO, and trading Sweden+Finland for Turkey would not be a no-brainer, unlike trading them for Hungary.
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Oct 17, 2022 09:30
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wet_goods posted:Uhhh ww2, flying tigers etc Okay. The People's Republic of China has never been a US ally FishBulbia posted:sino-soviet split ... We were blindsided that this even existed. Just because two enemies start fighting, doesn't make one our friend.
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Oct 17, 2022 09:32
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Saladman posted:There was never any real doubt that Hungary would have to approve them eventually, right? If Hungary threatened to leave, my main response would be "lol," like if my four year old threatened to leave the house and go off into the world on their own. I’d say there never was a credible doubt of Sweden and Finland failing to receive approval if they play the ball enough to have Americans buy into them not being freed loaders from a narrative perspective, since Americans gave them their own security guarantees in the meantime, and trying to rules lawyer leaving Americans hanging like that would be stuff straight out of WatchMojo Top 10 Saddest Anime Death Scenes, when the entire American establishment is gunning for the party that made an rear end out of them.
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Oct 17, 2022 09:36
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Saladman posted:There was never any real doubt that Hungary would have to approve them eventually, right? If Hungary threatened to leave, my main response would be "lol," like if my four year old threatened to leave the house and go off into the world on their own. On the other hand, Turkey has nothing to lose by approving them. However, rejecting their application would piss off some bigger NATO players at zero gain for Turkey. Turkey is using the situation to try and wring concessions from Sweden and Finland. Though, as the Russian military is taken apart in Ukraine. The urgent need for NATO membership is dropping quickly. No politician in Sweden or Finland has anything to gain from appeasing Turkey. They already filed the application work. All political points are collected. If the application is rejected, then they can just blame Turkey Giving in to Turkey on the other hand would be a political disaster for a politician in either country. I would say that the country with the biggest burden now is Turkey. After making so much noise. They need to find a way of approving the applications while still looking like the big, tough negotiator.
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Oct 17, 2022 09:45
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Orban doesn't really have anything to gain (as far as I can see?) from blocking Sweden and Finland, he's more occupied with his tight-rope act between anti-EU / "traditional values" strong-man bluster and not pissing off the EU any further, which could compromise his EU funding streams. Turkey has made slightly more credible noises about their reluctance, and hilariously Erdogan has stressed that he "doesn't really have a problem with Finland, but Sweden is too terrorist friendly" or whatever due to Sweden's larger Kurdish minority population. Finland has stated that ours is a joint application process with Sweden and would prefer to keep it so, I obviously can't know what has been said behind closed doors but presumably everyone involved, especially the US, has been trying their best to get Erdogan to play ball.
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Oct 17, 2022 10:08
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Rappaport posted:Orban doesn't really have anything to gain (as far as I can see?) from blocking Sweden and Finland, he's more occupied with his tight-rope act between anti-EU / "traditional values" strong-man bluster and not pissing off the EU any further, which could compromise his EU funding streams. Actually on that note, what's up with them having a joint application anyway? I understand why Greece and Turkey would go in at the same time, but I don't understand why Finland and Sweden would have their applications locked together. Kind of like I was confused by why North Macedonia and Albania had their EU applications locked, such that Albania could only go forward after Bulgaria stopped blocking North Macedonia. Are the Finns just like, looking out for their older cousin? NATO also seems a way lot ton more important for Finland than it is for Sweden, even though it turned out the Russian bear was actually just a raccoon.
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Oct 17, 2022 10:55
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Saladman posted:Actually on that note, what's up with them having a joint application anyway? I understand why Greece and Turkey would go in at the same time, but I don't understand why Finland and Sweden would have their applications locked together. Kind of like I was confused by why North Macedonia and Albania had their EU applications locked, such that Albania could only go forward after Bulgaria stopped blocking North Macedonia. Are the Finns just like, looking out for their older cousin? NATO also seems a way lot ton more important for Finland than it is for Sweden, even though it turned out the Russian bear was actually just a raccoon. Sweden and Finland has a long history of connecting our defense policies given that the only realistic traditional threat is Russia. Basically if one of us are attacked and the other don't collaborate defensively, we're flanked. It makes a lot of sense then to either both be in NATO, or neither being in NATO.
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Oct 17, 2022 11:07
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mobby_6kl posted:Some indication that Hungary is gonna ratify Sweden and Finland. Dunno how reliable of a source someone from the Hungarian "Party of European Socialists" is, considering it's Orban's party that has all the power. Hopefully true though. This would leave only Turkey. PES is not a Hungarian party, it's European like it says in the name. It's part of the Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats which is the second largest block in the European Parliament. Heinäluoma is also a member. So it's not the most reliable source. Maybe, who knows, but it's entirely up to Fidesz.
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Oct 17, 2022 11:12
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https://twitter.com/litavrinm/status/1581939253826957312 Multiple regions are reporting that they’ve fulfilled their mobilisation quota. As you’ll unlikely be surprised to learn, they’ve also announced “second mobilisation phase”, “drafting a bit extra peeps”, and so on.
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Oct 17, 2022 11:44
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Nenonen posted:PES is not a Hungarian party, it's European like it says in the name. It's part of the Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats which is the second largest block in the European Parliament. Heinäluoma is also a member. Which means it is entirely up to Orban. If he is rational, and we should assume he is, he will extract the maximum possible gain from not blocking it. Actually blocking the admission would cause problems not just with the US and the west - but also with Turkey. If the process is blocked by Hungary, Turkey will get *zero* concessions but will still end up in naughty list unless they immediately ratify to put pressure on Hungary. So Hungary and Turkey both have an interest in the other eventually ratifying, and also want to maximize concessions. For Hungary this could be something like the US leaning on the EU to loosen the screws on the punitive measures enacted against Hungary due to the rule of law issues. Getting some of that EU money flowing back in, while biding his time for a possible republican administration in the US (which is likely to be very Orban-friendly) is a good outcome. Making the US upset and burning bridges will make it hard for his possible future friends to help him out. It might come down to a game of chicken between Hungary and Turkey - neither wants to ratify way ahead of the other, but also I believe the bargaining position is stronger if they ratify before the other.
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Oct 17, 2022 11:44
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cinci zoo sniper posted:https://twitter.com/litavrinm/status/1581939253826957312 There is also a regular autumn draft coming up and, more importantly, the draftees of last year are finishing service - which means they can be instantly mobilized.
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Oct 17, 2022 12:00
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https://twitter.com/christopherjm/status/1581963874164969472 https://twitter.com/henryjfoy/status/1581962811655479296 https://twitter.com/gerashchenko_en/status/1581959594112262144 https://twitter.com/petersbeaumont1/status/1581950457551126528 https://twitter.com/christopherjm/status/1581946269567574016 fatherboxx posted:There is also a regular autumn draft coming up and, more importantly, the draftees of last year are finishing service - which means they can be instantly mobilized. Speaking of instant mobilisation: https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1581947971700027392
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Oct 17, 2022 12:20
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Would like a rain check on something from the thread. Would there be interest in me doing more structured, regular summaries of the ongoing discourse? Say, around my morning coffee time, and a follow-up in the evening on the days when I have time for that?
cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 15:43 on Oct 17, 2022 |
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Oct 17, 2022 12:23
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Would like a rain check on something from the thread. Would there be interest in me doing more structure structured, regular summaries of the ongoing discourse? Say, around my morning coffee time, and a follow-up in the evening on the days when I have time for that? Good idea, if you've got spare capacity. I'll still read all of the post, but I'm already doomscrolling addict.
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Oct 17, 2022 12:29
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Sucrose posted:What? Do they mean he had a heart attack and was found slumped over a fence, or that this guy had hanged himself or was hanged? An old old doctor joke (courtesy of my sister, a real medical doctor) is that "cardiac arrest" is the only valid cause of death. Decapitation? Well, that causes massive loss of blood pressure, and cardiac arrest. Etc.
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Oct 17, 2022 12:39
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Would like a rain check on something from the thread. Would there be interest in me doing more structure structured, regular summaries of the ongoing discourse? Say, around my morning coffee time, and a follow-up in the evening on the days when I have time for that? Please do. You've got a pretty good bullshit detector too so I trust you to sort the wheat from the chaff.
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Oct 17, 2022 13:02
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The Iranian drones seem more like the WW2 German V1 Buzzbombs where they're programmed with a preset course and then released and there's no way to change it or control them once they're released.cinci zoo sniper posted:Would like a rain check on something from the thread. Would there be interest in me doing more structure structured, regular summaries of the ongoing discourse? Say, around my morning coffee time, and a follow-up in the evening on the days when I have time for that?
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Oct 17, 2022 13:24
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Mr. Apollo posted:The Iranian drones seem more like the WW2 German V1 Buzzbombs where they're programmed with a preset course and then released and there's no way to change it or control them once they're released. I tell you, every time I think the US is being too hard on Iran and maybe we should try to negotiate in better faith their leadership doubles down on the most awful things such as this. This will set Iran back 20 years with Europe and the US.
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Oct 17, 2022 14:04
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Mr. Apollo posted:The Iranian drones seem more like the WW2 German V1 Buzzbombs where they're programmed with a preset course and then released and there's no way to change it or control them once they're released. Not really, V-1's were just given a direction and flight time after which they would crash down and explode. Germans never knew what they would hit, if anything, unless they did a recon flight over London. These loitering munitions require the operator to control them until they see a target they want to hit. After it's locked to a target the drone goes into automatic mode to make radio jamming ineffective.
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Oct 17, 2022 14:05
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Ynglaur posted:When this first started coming out I think I posted about how they looked like V1s. Considering Iran is in an active state of civil unrest due to the unjust deaths of their young women who don’t toe the line of the religious police, all the west has to do is tip the scales a little in their favour.
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Oct 17, 2022 14:27
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Reminds me of an old Soviet joke. Small village, a poster on the community centre advertises a lecture about love with slides by a professor from Moscow. Everyone from the village and from all neighbouring villages rushes in, the building is packed, people are making blue jokes, everyone's pumped to see something naughty. The professor manages to calm down the audience and starts the lecture. 'There are three types of love, comrades. First, there is love between a man and a woman.' The crowd gets excited again. 'Show us the slides!' 'Then, of course, there is love between partners of the same sex.' The crowd is really impatient now. 'Show us the slides! Show us the drat slides!' 'However, the most important type of love, comrades, is that of a Soviet citizen toward his glorious motherlands. And now let's see the slides.'
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Oct 17, 2022 14:39
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Would like a rain check on something from the thread. Would there be interest in me doing more structure structured, regular summaries of the ongoing discourse? Say, around my morning coffee time, and a follow-up in the evening on the days when I have time for that? I mostly lurk here, but I’d also appreciate these if you’ve got the spare mental capacity for it.
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Oct 17, 2022 14:41
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Nenonen posted:Not really, V-1's were just given a direction and flight time after which they would crash down and explode. Germans never knew what they would hit, if anything, unless they did a recon flight over London. These loitering munitions require the operator to control them until they see a target they want to hit. After it's locked to a target the drone goes into automatic mode to make radio jamming ineffective.
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Oct 17, 2022 14:47
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https://twitter.com/MassDara/status/1581982090287251457?t=nxMl5iVNqda3iSB5tkfWCQ&s=19 https://archive.ph/t6qS4
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Oct 17, 2022 14:52
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Politico posted another interview with Fiona Hill today which is another fantastic look into what Putin is doing and why along with some clarity into the geopolitical issues with the war and region. Also goes into the Musk stuff for a minute which spoiler alert, he is a useful idiot like most already knew. Really is a must read. https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/10/17/fiona-hill-putin-war-00061894
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Oct 17, 2022 15:01
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Are any western air defense systems any good against these suicide drones? I'm not even sure any of them have really been put to the test against this kind of threat. I wonder if the systems that were designed to take out small mortar rounds and rockets would work? Things like the CRAM and Iron Dome. I think a mortar round is even smaller than a Shahed and flies a lot faster. The Iron Dome would probably work great, unfortunately that's probably the system Ukraine is least likely to get.
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Oct 17, 2022 15:13
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The main problem with the Iranian drones is that they are cheap and plentiful. Practcally just an MC engine strapped to a fiberglass fuselage and some electronics for control. They seem to exploit a gap in AA capabilities that haven't been developed to deal with that type of threat. AA has been focused on fast and expensive missiles or planes - not swarms of aerial mopeds. It's not sustainable to shoot down a $5.000 drone with a $100.000 missile especially if you can produce the drones faster than the AA missiles. You're kinda hosed whether you shoot it down or not. I don't think there's really a counter to it. The only thing Ukraine and allies can do is make a similar program and use it against Russia. If Ukraine could bootstrap their own program they could strike further behind the lines without ATACMs.
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Oct 17, 2022 15:21
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