|
Owling Howl posted:The main problem with the Iranian drones is that they are cheap and plentiful. Practcally just an MC engine strapped to a fiberglass fuselage and some electronics for control. They seem to exploit a gap in AA capabilities that haven't been developed to deal with that type of threat. AA has been focused on fast and expensive missiles or planes - not swarms of aerial mopeds. It's not sustainable to shoot down a $5.000 drone with a $100.000 missile especially if you can produce the drones faster than the AA missiles. You're kinda hosed whether you shoot it down or not. There are close air defence systems that can deal with the drones (the guns on the gepard for example) but those have comparatively low range and thus can't cover as much area. So that would tie valuable close air cover to the backlines and not to the front lines where they are also very much needed.
|
#
?
Oct 17, 2022 15:31
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 24, 2024 14:52 |
|
|
I am not an air defense expert, but my understanding is that most ground-to-air systems are intended to protect point targets: airfields, headquarters, supply depots, etc. Cities like Kyiv are big, and Ukraine is a target-rich environment for long-range guided munitions seeking civilian targets.
|
|
#
?
Oct 17, 2022 15:32
|
|
|
Ynglaur posted:I am not an air defense expert, but my understanding is that most ground-to-air systems are intended to protect point targets: airfields, headquarters, supply depots, etc. Cities like Kyiv are big, and Ukraine is a target-rich environment for long-range guided munitions seeking civilian targets. For the war effort, hitting Kiev instead of a Ukrainian supply depot will just hasten Russia's defeat.
|
|
#
?
Oct 17, 2022 15:37
|
|
|
Charliegrs posted:Are any western air defense systems any good against these suicide drones? I'm not even sure any of them have really been put to the test against this kind of threat. I wonder if the systems that were designed to take out small mortar rounds and rockets would work? Things like the CRAM and Iron Dome. I think a mortar round is even smaller than a Shahed and flies a lot faster. The Iron Dome would probably work great, unfortunately that's probably the system Ukraine is least likely to get. Something akin to a Phalanx CIWS, which would be the LPWS C-RAM would be a perfect system to deal with them. Iron Dome is basically an enhanced version of that. Hell if there are any M163 VADS still around they would work well in the short term. Ultimately the best solution would be finding out where they are launching from and take it out at the source but that likely isn't going to be possible for a while.
|
|
#
?
Oct 17, 2022 15:37
|
|
|
Charliegrs posted:Are any western air defense systems any good against these suicide drones? I'm not even sure any of them have really been put to the test against this kind of threat. I wonder if the systems that were designed to take out small mortar rounds and rockets would work? Things like the CRAM and Iron Dome. I think a mortar round is even smaller than a Shahed and flies a lot faster. The Iron Dome would probably work great, unfortunately that's probably the system Ukraine is least likely to get. A single Iron Dome system covers like 150 square kms, which is a circle roughly 14 kms across. You would need a lot of systems.
|
|
#
?
Oct 17, 2022 15:42
|
|
|
Owling Howl posted:The main problem with the Iranian drones is that they are cheap and plentiful. Practcally just an MC engine strapped to a fiberglass fuselage and some electronics for control. They seem to exploit a gap in AA capabilities that haven't been developed to deal with that type of threat. AA has been focused on fast and expensive missiles or planes - not swarms of aerial mopeds. It's not sustainable to shoot down a $5.000 drone with a $100.000 missile especially if you can produce the drones faster than the AA missiles. You're kinda hosed whether you shoot it down or not. Interesting you should say that--this appeared today: https://twitter.com/CalibreObscura/status/1581949290980593665 https://en.interfax.com.ua/news/general/866052.html
|
|
#
?
Oct 17, 2022 15:46
|
|
|
Djarum posted:Something akin to a Phalanx CIWS, which would be the LPWS C-RAM would be a perfect system to deal with them. Iron Dome is basically an enhanced version of that. Hell if there are any M163 VADS still around they would work well in the short term. Oh, the launch sites have already been located, one in Belarus (not attackable because politics), one in Crimea in ATACMS range (uncle Sam things there is no need for those); they are mobile launchers, though, so they'll probably start moving them once necessary, though.
|
|
#
?
Oct 17, 2022 15:48
|
|
|
I wonder if Russia is going to park a bunch of conscripts in Belarus with no intention of having them cross the border into Ukraine. If they force Ukraine to keep their forces parked at the northern border (or even reinforce them) then that probably achieves most of what Russia wants. It's not like those troops will come down and make their way into Kiev and win the war.
|
|
#
?
Oct 17, 2022 15:58
|
|
|
Charliegrs posted:Are any western air defense systems any good against these suicide drones? I'm not even sure any of them have really been put to the test against this kind of threat. I wonder if the systems that were designed to take out small mortar rounds and rockets would work? Things like the CRAM and Iron Dome. I think a mortar round is even smaller than a Shahed and flies a lot faster. The Iron Dome would probably work great, unfortunately that's probably the system Ukraine is least likely to get. If you want a deep dive on it, the latest Perun episode is all about that stuff. Worth a listen. There’s plenty of stuff that can work in theory, the cost of it vs. The cost of the incoming munition is a factor plus the logistics of having them in the right place and providing enough coverage. I’m sure this is all being mathed out by the people that pledged more air defence following russias cruise missile barrage after the Kerch bridge bombing.
|
|
#
?
Oct 17, 2022 16:00
|
|
|
https://twitter.com/jonnytickle/status/1582003056446930945 Mobilisation has been chaos so I guess it makes sense that the end of it would be just as stupid. Presumably this is just the end of the first wave - but it could also be the Kremlin buckling under the threat of civil disorder and the economic impact.
|
|
#
?
Oct 17, 2022 16:14
|
|
|
Chalks posted:https://twitter.com/jonnytickle/status/1582003056446930945 This is the precursor to the post I made earlier about announcements of “second phases” in rural regions. The play at hand is relatively obvious, they’re finding continued mobilisation in Moscow too expensive politically, for the time being, and will be looking to “backfill” that with inhabitants of less central regions. Edit: Muddying waters further, legal analysis suggests no pathway for a governor, such as the mayor of Moscow, to halt mobilisation or annul notices. https://twitter.com/the_ins_ru/status/1582003875090903040 cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 16:25 on Oct 17, 2022 |
|
#
?
Oct 17, 2022 16:17
|
|
|
https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1581969746693566465 https://twitter.com/TheBaseLeg/status/1581970848868888584
|
|
#
?
Oct 17, 2022 16:34
|
|
|
golden bubble posted:https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1581969746693566465 Did they actually manage to shoot it down? I've watched it a couple of times but with the potato quality it's hard to say if it just crashes somewhere or if it was controlled descent. Anyway, speaking of these loving drones, quote:DUBAI, Oct 17 (Reuters) - Iran said on Monday that it had not provided Russia with drones to use in Ukraine. https://www.reuters.com/world/iran-says-it-has-not-provided-russia-with-drones-use-ukraine-2022-10-17/
|
|
#
?
Oct 17, 2022 16:39
|
|
|
Chalks posted:https://twitter.com/jonnytickle/status/1582003056446930945 This is like the scene from Death of Stalin when they stop shooting people in the gulag.
|
|
#
?
Oct 17, 2022 16:44
|
|
|
mobby_6kl posted:Are they counting on it being "technically correct" because it's a SMO and not a war? What a bunch of a assholes. No that's just the way Iran admits things, pretty much the same as russia.
|
|
#
?
Oct 17, 2022 16:46
|
|
|
Russian fighter plane crashed into an apartment building in Yeisk, Krasnodar region https://twitter.com/ian_matveev/status/1582034506089115649  burning building
fatherboxx fucked around with this message at 17:02 on Oct 17, 2022 |
|
#
?
Oct 17, 2022 16:51
|
|
|
fatherboxx posted:Russian fighter plane crashed into an apartment building in Yeisk, Krasnodar region I don't think that is going to further endear the Russian troops in Belarus to the locals... That looks really bad - might want to NMS it even if there aren't visible fatalities. I hope people got out and that the state covers if insurance doesn't. I suspect this is very much force majeure in regards to insurance. Edit: Krasnodar - my bad - that's not Yeisk in Belarus. PederP fucked around with this message at 18:17 on Oct 17, 2022 |
|
#
?
Oct 17, 2022 16:55
|
|
|
Owling Howl posted:I don't think there's really a counter to it. The only thing Ukraine and allies can do is make a similar program and use it against Russia. If Ukraine could bootstrap their own program they could strike further behind the lines without ATACMs. The counter is going to be drone-hunter drones. Armed with something that can disrupt the capability of the target drone to fly, until the attack suicide drones get better defences and it'll set off a new type of arms race. I'm not sure if we'll see something like it in the current war, but future conflicts are going to have to have them. The drone could be bigger because it doesn't require as much stealth to defend a region, so maybe it carries a bunch of nets to tangle up the target drone. Or it's got a sawblade attached for aerial robot wars.
|
|
#
?
Oct 17, 2022 17:03
|
|
|
nimby posted:The counter is going to be drone-hunter drones. Armed with something that can disrupt the capability of the target drone to fly, until the attack suicide drones get better defences and it'll set off a new type of arms race. I'm not sure if we'll see something like it in the current war, but future conflicts are going to have to have them. In regards to military targets, regular anti-air technology translates pretty well to 'suicide drones'. I don't know if we have a drone alignment chart yet, but in some ways these suicide drones are budget missiles primarily based on rotary wing tech instead of chemical propellants. They're slow moving and not that hard to target with dedicated equipment, so against military targets with dedicated AA they don't work particularly well. Against civilian targets it is a complete different story, and the sad truth is that attacks against civilian and economic targets are extremely difficult to prevent. You can't cover an entire country with AA. Like terrorist attacks outside of a military context they're best pre-empted during the planning and pre-execution phases. Once the attack is in motion it is extremely difficult to stop it. These drones are launched from somewhere, they're brought to the front via logistical chains, there are planning centers picking targets. The strategies used against these things are applicable to the pre-emptive prevention of drone attacks. When supply lines and command centers are hit, that's essentially anti-drone efforts. I am not saying dedicated drone-hunters won't be developed. They probably will. As will all kinds of other technologies and platforms. Birds of prey, lasers - it's probably going to get weird. But at the end of the day, there is a limit to what is feasible when dealing with attacks against civilian targets. It is a highly asymmetric aspect of warfare - as it has been throughout history. It takes much more tech and effort to stop such attacks than it does to make them. It is an arms race you generally don't win. If Russia wants to target civilians, it's very hard for Ukraine to prevent that given the practical and political limitations they're faced with. It's hard for Ukraine's allies to do anything without escalating. All that being said, Ukraine is actually managing an incredible AA effort. https://guardfromabove.com/
|
|
#
?
Oct 17, 2022 17:33
|
|
|
You could also add some sort of networked AI to better organize the efforts of defensive drones. Human operators get tired, and cheap, reliable drones won't be smart on their own. Just make sure this sky-net is completely independent from human control, so it can't be hacked.
|
|
#
?
Oct 17, 2022 17:34
|
|
|
mobby_6kl posted:Did they actually manage to shoot it down? I've watched it a couple of times but with the potato quality it's hard to say if it just crashes somewhere or if it was controlled descent. The reports are conflicting on whether if that shoot down was successful, partly because they’ve been several attacks in the general area in a short time window. The one in the clip seems to be hitting random roadside thing, but it’s hard to tell if the cause of that is gunfire, poor targeting, or poor guidance.
|
|
#
?
Oct 17, 2022 17:39
|
|
|
Sir John Falstaff posted:Interesting you should say that--this appeared today: It would be funny if the us was supplying materials to build stuff like this but no instructions and letting the afu get creative
|
|
#
?
Oct 17, 2022 17:45
|
|
|
Owling Howl posted:The main problem with the Iranian drones is that they are cheap and plentiful. Practcally just an MC engine strapped to a fiberglass fuselage and some electronics for control. They seem to exploit a gap in AA capabilities that haven't been developed to deal with that type of threat. AA has been focused on fast and expensive missiles or planes - not swarms of aerial mopeds. It's not sustainable to shoot down a $5.000 drone with a $100.000 missile especially if you can produce the drones faster than the AA missiles. You're kinda hosed whether you shoot it down or not. There's a possible solution, and it's nothing high end - just place anti-drone posts with heavy machine guns and listening posts around cities and other targets like it's 1940 again. The drones are not particularly fast and a hit from a 12.7mm DShK is going to break it up real good. The issue is that you need people to keep their eyes and ears open for them all day long, but you could quickly train auxiliary air defense troops without much trouble and no need to tie front soldiers down to do it. At least it would be more effective than policemen opening fire with AK's.
|
|
#
?
Oct 17, 2022 18:05
|
|
|
Nenonen posted:There's a possible solution, and it's nothing high end - just place anti-drone posts with heavy machine guns and listening posts around cities and other targets like it's 1940 again. The drones are not particularly fast and a hit from a 12.7mm DShK is going to break it up real good. The issue is that you need people to keep their eyes and ears open for them all day long, but you could quickly train auxiliary air defense troops without much trouble and no need to tie front soldiers down to do it. At least it would be more effective than policemen opening fire with AK's. Maybe a series of balloons with high-tensile fishing wire. The fishing wire won't be seen easily through the camera on these things, especially at high speed.
|
|
#
?
Oct 17, 2022 18:16
|
|
|
Young Freud posted:Maybe a series of balloons with high-tensile fishing wire. The fishing wire won't be seen easily through the camera on these things, especially at high speed. Old school solutions for modern problems: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barrage_balloon
|
|
#
?
Oct 17, 2022 18:17
|
|
|
Young Freud posted:Maybe a series of balloons with high-tensile fishing wire. The fishing wire won't be seen easily through the camera on these things, especially at high speed. Good news: The Shahed doesn't have a camera.
|
|
#
?
Oct 17, 2022 18:20
|
|
|
Nenonen posted:There's a possible solution, and it's nothing high end - just place anti-drone posts with heavy machine guns and listening posts around cities and other targets like it's 1940 again. The drones are not particularly fast and a hit from a 12.7mm DShK is going to break it up real good. The issue is that you need people to keep their eyes and ears open for them all day long, but you could quickly train auxiliary air defense troops without much trouble and no need to tie front soldiers down to do it. At least it would be more effective than policemen opening fire with AK's. Yeah, if the price of missiles vs cost of producing a drone is the main obstacle, then the solution is the world-war 2 style improvised AA guns where you bolt four machine guns together and just saturate the sky in machine gun fire on a slow-moving target. Still not great, you're going to need a lot of them to cover all the places you need to defend.
|
|
#
?
Oct 17, 2022 18:22
|
|
|
Another issue, relevant right now: these things can and do attack at night, so defense needs some non-visual way of aiming (whether radar or... sound?)
|
|
#
?
Oct 17, 2022 18:25
|
|
|
Nenonen posted:There's a possible solution, and it's nothing high end - just place anti-drone posts with heavy machine guns and listening posts around cities and other targets like it's 1940 again. The drones are not particularly fast and a hit from a 12.7mm DShK is going to break it up real good. The issue is that you need people to keep their eyes and ears open for them all day long, but you could quickly train auxiliary air defense troops without much trouble and no need to tie front soldiers down to do it. At least it would be more effective than policemen opening fire with AK's. You may be underestimating how difficult it is to hit a small, fast moving target with an even smaller projectile at any kind of range. Feel free to test this out by going to the local clays range and renting the smallest caliber shotgun with the most restrictive choke they have, then trying to break clays on the trap range. Bonus points for keeping your eyes closed until the launcher fires. What comes up must also go down. 12.7mm is going to travel a loooong ways when aimed up, and will absolutely be deadly out to a few kilometers. The reason why CIWS/C-RAM etc. work so well, even in a relatively built up area, is a combination of accurate radar control and explosive munitions with effective fusing. 20/30mm out of these point defense systems self-destructs before getting close to the ground, but even then care must be taken in placement of the system and fields of fire. That all conveniently ignores that you'd have to know, more or less, where the drones were coming from. A munition with a long loiter time and command range could fairly easily loop around your defenses to hit targets from an unexpected direction.
|
|
#
?
Oct 17, 2022 18:26
|
|
|
Deltasquid posted:Yeah, if the price of missiles vs cost of producing a drone is the main obstacle, then the solution is the world-war 2 style improvised AA guns where you bolt four machine guns together and just saturate the sky in machine gun fire on a slow-moving target. Still not great, you're going to need a lot of them to cover all the places you need to defend. The unit cost of that is likely going to be fairly low compared to say a bunch of hi-tech missiles. It's probably they best way to go about defending something like a city.
|
|
#
?
Oct 17, 2022 18:26
|
|
|
Ok check this out. POV drones with machine guns on them.
|
|
#
?
Oct 17, 2022 18:31
|
|
|
The gepard basically fits all the requirements for drone hunting, doesnt it? Its a self-propelled AA gun with radar and maybe enough armour to not care about getting hit itself. You just gotta figure out where to park them since they can't be everywhere at once and since Russia doesnt seem interested in anything but maximum suffering you can't just be content with defending critical infrastructure.
|
|
#
?
Oct 17, 2022 18:39
|
|
|
The biggest advantage a western integrated air defense system would bring to Ukraine with regard to the Iranian drones would be the "integrated" part. The drones are not fast at 115mph maximum speed and they are extremely loud. If they were able to be detected reasonably far out from the cities and that information relayed quickly enough, it is likely that rapid response teams equipped with something like a pickup-mounted autocannon could take out the vast majority of them without too much issue.
|
|
#
?
Oct 17, 2022 18:41
|
|
|
mobby_6kl posted:Ok check this out. Semi-related: During the 1960's an Alaskan bush pilot decided to mount twin 12ga. Browning Auto-5 autoloading shotguns upside down beneath the wings of his light airplane to hunt wolves. By all reports, this was very effective (right up until the ATF went ape poo poo on him as mounting weapons to a vehicle is a major no-no). At that point, you're looking at such a sturdy firing platform that you'd be better off using a tiny helicoper and some dude or dudette hanging out the door with whatever cheap Turkish semi-auto shotgun can be scrounged up. Fly in circles above suspected drone flight level, circle down to meet the target, blast it with 1,300fps tungsten goose fuckers, gain altitude, rinse and repeat. If we're talking about silly kinetic solutions. Which we are.
|
|
#
?
Oct 17, 2022 18:42
|
|
|
An-2?
|
|
#
?
Oct 17, 2022 18:44
|
|
|
Wuxi posted:The gepard basically fits all the requirements for drone hunting, doesnt it? Its a self-propelled AA gun with radar and maybe enough armour to not care about getting hit itself. You just gotta figure out where to park them since they can't be everywhere at once and since Russia doesnt seem interested in anything but maximum suffering you can't just be content with defending critical infrastructure. Yeah I believe a large number of small AA mounts, with a combination of radar targeting and fused flak ammunition is the best bet here. Unlike bombers in WW2, these attackers are slower and fly much lower, especially of course on their final dive. No solution to this will be cheap. But fused flak eliminates the issues with shells landing in the city down-range and you don't need to hit the drone with the bullet, you create a small shrapnel cloud and these drones are small enough you don't need it to be a particularly large caliber.
|
|
#
?
Oct 17, 2022 18:47
|
|
|
Could always go back to the idea of using birds-of-prey to hunt the drones down. May need to put helmets and bulletproof vests on them though.
|
|
#
?
Oct 17, 2022 18:58
|
|
|
Youth Decay posted:Could always go back to the idea of using birds-of-prey to hunt the drones down. May need to put helmets and bulletproof vests on them though. Train seagulls into believing that drones have food, and the problem will solve itself. I see no way that this could backfire on future society.
|
|
#
?
Oct 17, 2022 19:04
|
|
|
Youth Decay posted:Could always go back to the idea of using birds-of-prey to hunt the drones down. May need to put helmets and bulletproof vests on them though. Nah, that would only end in your side losing tons of money and effort, and even if they manage to train the dumb birds, the end result is animals hunting every drone, including your own. At that point, a cheap drone with a gun and a cheap CPU for a brain would perform vastly better. Just make a ton of those cheap drones and throw them everywhere in huge numbers. At least drones can be programmed to target the right drones. I foresee no problems at all with this approach.
|
|
#
?
Oct 17, 2022 19:07
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 24, 2024 14:52 |
|
|
Rheinmetall has a cool Skynex 35mm AA gun too. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pb5_F4_Eod8&t=80s Really there are a lot of things that could shoot down these drones, the problem is, as was mentioned, that it's impossible to cover all possible civilian targets. The most cost-effective would be IMO to a) target the launch location/supplies, and b) identify them in time and have a TDF guy with a Stinger blow them the gently caress up.
|
|
#
?
Oct 17, 2022 19:07
|
|