|
Man this opsec stuff sucks, I want to see some maps. 
|
#
?
Oct 19, 2022 19:47
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 25, 2024 21:11 |
|
|
cinci zoo sniper posted:https://twitter.com/ian_matveev/status/1582680802055180288 Can you translate
|
|
#
?
Oct 19, 2022 19:51
|
|
|
Enjoy posted:Can you translate You can translate using google. But tl;dr: First tweet: "Take a photo, as if I'm at the front" Second tweet: the rumors of a firefight between FSB and military goons this summer seems to be confirmed, a son of a high-ranking FSB guy wanted to be a governor of an occupied territory (that was never taken) but instead got into a drunken firefight with other fascists and was kicked out
|
|
#
?
Oct 19, 2022 20:01
|
|
|
mobby_6kl posted:You can translate using google. I tried to translate using Google and it made no sense I also can't translate what it says on pictures, like Google Maps screenshots So if someone who does read Russian posts something in Russian they should really translate it for those who don't
|
|
#
?
Oct 19, 2022 20:03
|
|
|
Enjoy posted:I tried to translate using Google and it made no sense The Google Maps screenshot has geographic coordinates on it, in case you are unfamiliar with the Cyrillic and have chosen to ignore half a dozen posts discussing the context of that post. And no, in a thread where like half of the regulars are Russian speakers there is not going to be a requirement to translate long articles back into English - my best advice is to see if you have more luck with the translation service linked in the OP.
|
|
#
?
Oct 19, 2022 20:20
|
|
|
The google translate phone app can kinda translate stuff you point it at. It's not perfect, but works to get a general idea of what has been written if you have a baseline context.
|
|
#
?
Oct 19, 2022 20:24
|
|
|
Enjoy posted:I tried to translate using Google and it made no sense google lens works on images
|
|
#
?
Oct 19, 2022 20:25
|
|
|
cinci zoo sniper posted:The Google Maps screenshot has geographic coordinates on it, in case you are unfamiliar with the Cyrillic and have chosen to ignore half a dozen posts discussing the context of that post. And no, in a thread where like half of the regulars are Russian speakers there is not going to be a requirement to translate long articles back into English - my best advice is to see if you have more luck with the translation service linked in the OP. Can we at least get a synopsis in English? That doesn't seem like too much to ask.
|
|
#
?
Oct 19, 2022 20:26
|
|
|
aw frig aw dang it posted:Can we at least get a synopsis in English? That doesn't seem like too much to ask. Not from me, when the article appears to be adequately readable when you follow the advice in the OP on translation tools, having wasted my time now on reading a machine translation of the first 5 paragraphs of the article, to confirm that.
|
|
#
?
Oct 19, 2022 20:36
|
|
|
spankmeister posted:Man this opsec stuff sucks, I want to see some maps. This is the closest I've seen to an indication that the Ukrainian offensive has even started: KitConstantine posted:Also it begins No specifics yet, if it's real. Between Ukraine's excellent opsec and Russia's crackdown on milbloggers, we're unfortunately just not getting a lot of information.
|
|
#
?
Oct 19, 2022 20:40
|
|
|
Phlegmish posted:This is the closest I've seen to an indication that the Ukrainian offensive has even started: FIRMS data seems to support this. 
|
|
#
?
Oct 19, 2022 20:51
|
|
|
If Ukraine can advance beyond Mylove the Russians west of the river are in big trouble so progress here fits with their retreat plans. Seems pretty likely. More evidence (lol) https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1582825469594193921 The Geroman twitter user has a history of posting about large Ukrainian assaults being repelled when they were actually successful in all of the previous offensives. We'll see if the pattern holds. Chalks fucked around with this message at 21:25 on Oct 19, 2022 |
|
#
?
Oct 19, 2022 21:06
|
|
|
https://translate.yandex.com/ocr I've been using yandex to translate telegram screenshots and the like, hopefully I haven't been sending all my personal data directly to Putin.
|
|
#
?
Oct 19, 2022 21:21
|
|
|
https://mobile.twitter.com/niktwick/status/1582815503093239813
|
|
#
?
Oct 19, 2022 22:02
|
|
|
https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1582861415500873729 Interesting map. The line starts a bit north of Horlivka, and stops slightly short of reaching Kreminna, hugging the river until the state border with Ukraine from thereon.
|
|
#
?
Oct 20, 2022 00:30
|
|
|
cinci zoo sniper posted:https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1582861415500873729 I’m no fancy 4 star Major-General-Colonel but that Northwest spur looks super defendable. Is this the fall back position, or are they acknowledging that north of that river isn’t something they can hold?
|
|
#
?
Oct 20, 2022 00:42
|
|
|
nn
|
|
#
?
Oct 20, 2022 00:44
|
|
|
Crow Buddy posted:I’m no fancy 4 star Major-General-Colonel but that Northwest spur looks super defendable. Honestly, other than that weird spur (which makes sense geographically, but wouldn’t be fun to defend), it seems like they are preparing to retreat back to pre-2022 lines.
|
|
#
?
Oct 20, 2022 00:51
|
|
|
Crow Buddy posted:I’m no fancy 4 star Major-General-Colonel but that Northwest spur looks super defendable. 2nd line defence according to RU MoD.
|
|
#
?
Oct 20, 2022 00:54
|
|
|
It seems to cut right through Lysychansk, which is rather odd. Are they planning to take up defensive positions within the city itself?
|
|
#
?
Oct 20, 2022 01:03
|
|
|
Phlegmish posted:It seems to cut right through Lysychansk, which is rather odd. Are they planning to take up defensive positions within the city itself? I think that’s just lazy “cartography”, the entire line is “doctrinal X km away from the frontline” + “hey let’s use the river since there’s gently caress all north of it anyway”.
|
|
#
?
Oct 20, 2022 01:07
|
|
|
Another dawn is breaking in Kyiv, and it's still Ukrainian.   
|
|
#
?
Oct 20, 2022 05:28
|
|
|
https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1582938879329722369?s=20&t=NQj69OSz1FbI6gpyomKvNg The amount of water that could be released in such an event would appear to be much worse than damaging the dam on the Inhulets.
|
|
#
?
Oct 20, 2022 06:52
|
|
|
MikeC posted:https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1582938879329722369?s=20&t=NQj69OSz1FbI6gpyomKvNg Doesn't that also make the nuclear plant on the south of the reservoir not have water to cool with?
|
|
#
?
Oct 20, 2022 07:01
|
|
|
FishBulbia posted:I wouldn't read too much into the martial law thing. That was already the de facto state. no no. previously the DNR and LNR were under a de facto, homegrown state of martial law under a nascent and largely unrecognized police state. now they're in an official state of martial law under a well-established police state.it's premium brand martial law
|
|
#
?
Oct 20, 2022 07:55
|
|
|
VSOKUL girl posted:no no. previously the DNR and LNR were under a de facto, homegrown state of martial law under a nascent and largely unrecognized police state. now they're in an official state of martial law under a well-established police state.it's premium brand martial law VSOPS - Vladimir's Superior Oligarch Police State
|
|
#
?
Oct 20, 2022 08:13
|
|
|
MikeC posted:https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1582938879329722369?s=20&t=NQj69OSz1FbI6gpyomKvNg It would be really disastrous, since the dam is holding 18.18 cubic kilometres of water - the reservoir behind it is roughly 230x9.3 kilometres. The one aspect where blowing that up doesn’t make sense to me is how they plan to ensure Crimean water supply if they blow the dam up and leave.
|
|
#
?
Oct 20, 2022 08:55
|
|
|
cinci zoo sniper posted:It would be really disastrous, since the dam is holding 18.18 cubic kilometres of water - the reservoir behind it is roughly 230x9.3 kilometres. The one aspect where blowing that up doesn’t make sense to me is how they plan to ensure Crimean water supply if they blow the dam up and leave. Step 1: Blow up dam Step 3: Win Step Profit: Grateful new little russian brothers build new dam and grant Crimea all the water out of contrition.
|
|
#
?
Oct 20, 2022 09:17
|
|
|
cinci zoo sniper posted:The one aspect where blowing that up doesn’t make sense to me is how they plan to ensure Crimean water supply if they blow the dam up and leave. Possibly they're assuming Ukraine would just cut off the supply anyway if the take the river back so effectively not a loss. Possibly they're just prepared to make that sacrifice for a short temporary gain(?). But yeah for the reason you give it does seem pretty unlikely.
|
|
#
?
Oct 20, 2022 09:21
|
|
|
Haystack posted:Step 1: Blow up dam I believe the waterworks junction directing water to Crimea is something further downstream, and, in all fairness, the supply problem was that it was closed, which hypothetical dam demolitions upstream shouldn’t undo, but I cannot shake the feeling that this move would quite likely involve some rather undesirable infrastructure damage not in Russia’s interests.
|
|
#
?
Oct 20, 2022 09:24
|
|
|
cinci zoo sniper posted:It would be really disastrous, since the dam is holding 18.18 cubic kilometres of water - the reservoir behind it is roughly 230x9.3 kilometres. The one aspect where blowing that up doesn’t make sense to me is how they plan to ensure Crimean water supply if they blow the dam up and leave. If they blow the dam, considering it will flood their side of the Dnipro worse, and cut off Crimea's water for a very long time, honestly I could only see them doing that if they planned to abandon Crimea. Which is quite unlikely, but with Kherson now on the edge and the bridge damaged, a lot more plausible than it was even a month ago. Still, it would be admitting total long-term defeat on that front, so I don't think Putin would do it. There's other insane ways he could escalate that are still less dumb than that. If it happens it doesn't make sense. But of course Russia don't make no sense these days, they keep playing nuclear chicken with the Zaporizhzhia plant, on top of y'know, the whole vaporize their own economy and demographics with this war in the first place. Hopefully the Kherson offense gets there first and the Russian officers hypothetically tasked with rigging the dam to blow spent that time strapping more washing machines to their BMPs instead. EDIT cinci zoo sniper posted:I believe the waterworks junction directing water to Crimea is something further downstream, and, in all fairness, the supply problem was that it was closed, which hypothetical dam demolitions upstream shouldn’t undo, but I cannot shake the feeling that this move would quite likely involve some rather undesirable infrastructure damage not in Russia’s interests. I believe this shows the entrance to the aqueduct for Crimea. it is connected to the dam's reservoir almost flush with the dam. I'm no geo-engineer, but if that reservoir empties it looks very possible that water would no longer reach the aqueduct's entrance. https://www.google.ca/maps/@46.7668478,33.3969674,1879m/data=!3m1!1e3!5m1!1e4?hl=en Orthanc6 fucked around with this message at 09:28 on Oct 20, 2022 |
|
#
?
Oct 20, 2022 09:24
|
|
|
cinci zoo sniper posted:It would be really disastrous, since the dam is holding 18.18 cubic kilometres of water - the reservoir behind it is roughly 230x9.3 kilometres. The one aspect where blowing that up doesn’t make sense to me is how they plan to ensure Crimean water supply if they blow the dam up and leave. They likely expect to lose the position and that UA cutting off the supply is a given, so blowing the thing up is not changing anything from that point of view. Considering the article from their former diplomat, I wouldn't be surprised if they haven't convinced each other that a false flag would totally be bought by 'The West' and that the entire world would blame UA for it.
|
|
#
?
Oct 20, 2022 10:21
|
|
|
MikeC posted:https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1582938879329722369?s=20&t=NQj69OSz1FbI6gpyomKvNg Edit: cinci zoo sniper posted:The one aspect where blowing that up doesn’t make sense to me is how they plan to ensure Crimean water supply if they blow the dam up and leave. 
Dwesa fucked around with this message at 11:26 on Oct 20, 2022 |
|
#
?
Oct 20, 2022 11:12
|
|
|
Russia thinks its playing a long game and someone may have been impressed by Ukraine's use ofvterrain shaping during the Battle 9f Kyiv. Fascism loves to one-up others without truly understanding things. In general I don't think something not being in Russia's interest Caan be used to predict Russian behavior. They are constantly doing things against their own interest. We need to look at every decision through the lens of a fascist, organized-crime state that views itself as an empire reclaiming lost glory.
|
|
#
?
Oct 20, 2022 11:20
|
|
|
Popular Front just dropped an episode about the Russian far right militias in Ukraine, https://www.popularfront.co/podcast. I knew they existed, but was not familiar with the names and individuals involved. Their upbringing in the Soviet times well as all the names that are frequently mentioned in this forum and their history was quite the interesting and suprising part. I really like the hosts style and type of reporting, has a really good documentary on youtube about Ukrainian soccer hooligans fighting in Ukraine... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nsodbPkjO3c1
|
|
#
?
Oct 20, 2022 13:01
|
|
|
Russian airforce technology has sure taken a beating from the sanctions: https://twitter.com/benglaze/status/1583052951865634816?s=20&t=bgHkMXZrsnkuaVzAxXow1A https://twitter.com/benglaze/status/1583053341763829760?s=20&t=bgHkMXZrsnkuaVzAxXow1A
|
|
#
?
Oct 20, 2022 13:23
|
|
|
Any possibility it was a warning shot? I know in these kinds of confrontation air forces like to do all sorts of things to scare the opposing force. Seems expensive if it was a decent missile, though.
|
|
#
?
Oct 20, 2022 13:26
|
|
|
Lol, nope. Those kind of flights are routine between Russia and NATO countries. That kind of show would require similar reaction next time Russian plane does the same.. Also if they were to give final warning before shooting down trespasser it would be with a gun.
|
|
#
?
Oct 20, 2022 13:32
|
|
|
Gort posted:Any possibility it was a warning shot? I know in these kinds of confrontation air forces like to do all sorts of things to scare the opposing force. A warning shot in international airspace would not make a whole lot of sense to me and those Rivet Joints have been flying all over the place for months.
|
|
#
?
Oct 20, 2022 14:07
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 25, 2024 21:11 |
|
|
I'm going to wager a guess and say the Rivet Joint's international airspace was the Black Sea. It's a signals intelligence aircraft, the type of intelligence gathering that would uncover Russian troop movements, logistics, locations of officers, etc.
|
|
#
?
Oct 20, 2022 14:14
|
|
