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Ynglaur posted:KIA and tanks get the most attention, but the Oryx list of confirmed destroyed and captured vehicles has a lot of engineering vehicles. Even the US only has a couple hundred armored excavators. I don't think that list remotely counts as a lot and I'd also point out that just on a visual level there's clearly very little defensive earth moving happening on the Russian side, for whatever reason, other than just digging down. idk why entirely (although I can certainly speculate a dozen reasons why) but it's conspicuously absent on almost every level. You do see Russians digging tanks in and obviously soldiers are digging fighting positions and dugouts, but there's very rarely any sign of anything beyond what can be done with a shovel outside of like airbases or major regional command posts. The contrast just jumps out to me compared to like Syria where you'd see bulldozers as a part of basically every single fight and the first thing people would do to hold a position is get a bulldozer in to start pushing up a berm around an area,, often starting while still actively under fire. This is something all sides in the conflict were doing. You'd also see comparatively small units operating bulldozers and if they'd opportunistically steal/buy them at the first opportunity. I bring up the contrast to Syria particularly because Russia has otherwise not diverged a ton from how they did things in Syria. Aside from just not having many as a point of doctrine, they seem to be assets allocated to comparatively much larger units vs something that even small units are operating at least one of. it's strange and, outside of speculation and loosely pointing at russian doctrine and organization, idk what to make of it. You can make a case that there's an interest in being less visible to the people targeting artillery, but also a lot of artillery losses would be negated by better defensive works. Sure it's not saving you if a gmlrs comes down right on your head, but the vast majority of Ukrainian artillery is still unguided stuff. Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 22:39 on Oct 22, 2022 |
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Oct 22, 2022 22:24
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MechanicalTomPetty posted:It's probably really good news for Kherson though, basically walking into a relatively intact city without much fuss would still be a huge win for Ukraine. They aren't evacuating from kherson city proper though, right?
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Oct 22, 2022 22:28
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A big flaming stink posted:They aren't evacuating from kherson city proper though, right? They will have to. Cities are easy to defend if the other side needs it quickly, but cities that get cut off are where armies go to die.
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Oct 22, 2022 22:56
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Russian telegram cope posting about losing Kherson is rapidly accelerating E: https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1583946355868696576 I recommend reading the Grey Zone (wagner official channel) post in full, note that they're quoting the neonazi group Rusich
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Oct 23, 2022 02:50
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Storkrasch posted:Kherson is ostensibly annexed Russian territory at this point though, it might be more difficult to claim that all the people there, 98% of whom voted to join Russia, are now nazis that must not be allowed to have electricity or heating. Somehow I don't think the obvious contradictions their previous obvious lies create are going to bother them a whole lot. They will simply make up new lies and continue with their day. There is just no regard for the truth at all, and no real additional consequences beyond what they've already incurred, either.
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Oct 23, 2022 04:26
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I don't understand if they blow the dam how they can HAVE any defence line south of it- everything's going to be flooded and any prepared defence line will be gone with it. Granted it would stop the Ukrainian's for a week or two, but it' would be hilarious if they have prepared bridges, boats and helicopter's in place ready and in place to be able to cross the river afterwards. I can totally see the Russian's being incapable of doing it themselves, and just assuming the Ukrainian's can't do it either.
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Oct 23, 2022 05:00
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Vox Nihili posted:Somehow I don't think the obvious contradictions their previous obvious lies create are going to bother them a whole lot. They will simply make up new lies and continue with their day. There is just no regard for the truth at all, and no real additional consequences beyond what they've already incurred, either. Putin is not invincible and the sheer audacity of annexing a region and then losing it less than a month later is how you become a laughing stock. Especially if you donate a shitload of materiel to Ukraine in the process. You don't get to gently caress up that badly very many times before we get president Prigozhin. On that note, Wagner is now building a defensive line by Belgorod, too.
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Oct 23, 2022 05:11
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Herstory Begins Now posted:On that note, Wagner is now building a defensive line by Belgorod, too. At this rate they might be using a box of tacks. I've never seen what was assumed to be a global power known for warfare so quickly defused. Like literal decades of built up assumed physical power. Gone.
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Oct 23, 2022 05:27
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Another dawn is breaking in Kyiv, and it's still Ukrainian.   
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Oct 23, 2022 05:33
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Buckwheat Sings posted:At this rate they might be using a box of tacks. They've certainly been setting records for losing materiel particularly (and to a lesser extent, manpower) in modern times. I get the impression that both of these defensive lines are largely for domestic PR reasons, but idk maybe we're legitimately at the point where Russians are worried about Ukraine rampaging through border regions
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Oct 23, 2022 05:37
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Comstar posted:I don't understand if they blow the dam how they can HAVE any defence line south of it- everything's going to be flooded and any prepared defence line will be gone with it. Like I said earlier, I agree that breaching the dam is not worth much besides cutting off electricity. Opening the dam's gates wide open, assuming the outflow is as much as their American counterparts, would allow for enough streamflow to limit cross-river traffic at will. I imagine if the Russians were planning on breaching the dam in advance (which I think would be dumb), they'd move equipment higher beforehand and not build defenses in the floodplain. My one worry is that they might breach the dam as a big "f--- you" before retreating from the area since it'll become a Ukrainian asset. That'd be such an egregious escalation, I've got my doubts (they don't benefit long-term from further escalation).
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Oct 23, 2022 05:48
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Herstory Begins Now posted:I get the impression that both of these defensive lines are largely for domestic PR reasons, but idk maybe we're legitimately at the point where Russians are worried about Ukraine rampaging through border regions And so they should it's quite a typical scenario where some country attacks another, grinds down all their forces, then is left weakened so that a counterattack will be quite attractive by the attacked (or another) country. See Napolean attacking Russia, South Korea attacking North Korea in the 50s, the Axis in WWII, the Crimean War, etc. For Ukraine, they're prolly held back by the US saying that they would withdraw support if they attacked Russian territory. But, if they push Russia out of Ukraine, and Russia continues to attack, the US might let them take a bit of territory, so as to have something bargain with to get a peace treaty. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Oct 23, 2022 05:52
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Buckwheat Sings posted:Like literal decades of built up assumed physical power. Gone. There was some dumb infographic channel or something on YouTube that I used to listen to in the background and I remember they did something about “Who would win, Russia or the US?!” and holy moly were all these estimates off the mark. Guess you really can’t blame them. So much institutional rot and corruption and all the other things Perun has lectured on.
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Oct 23, 2022 05:59
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If they blow the dam, would the resulting flood put Russia outside of most artillery range of Kherson? Or would they basically be able to shell across the floodplain?
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Oct 23, 2022 06:14
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Herstory Begins Now posted:Putin is not invincible and the sheer audacity of annexing a region and then losing it less than a month later is how you become a laughing stock. Especially if you donate a shitload of materiel to Ukraine in the process. Losing or winning the war is what actually matters at that level. None of the accompanying rhetoric or proclamations have any substance or value, it's all varying degrees of propaganda, smoke screens, and chaff. If he continues to lose territory it will continue to hurt him whether or not that territory was formally "annexed" because he will be viewed as a loser. His core of support consists of nationalists, i.e., people who care about strength, not liberals, i.e., people who care about norms and rules.
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Oct 23, 2022 06:42
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Vox Nihili posted:liberals, i.e., people who care about norms and rules. Newspeak is getting really weird in this timeline.
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Oct 23, 2022 07:03
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Vox Nihili posted:Losing or winning the war is what actually matters at that level. None of the accompanying rhetoric or proclamations have any substance or value, it's all varying degrees of propaganda, smoke screens, and chaff. If he continues to lose territory it will continue to hurt him whether or not that territory was formally "annexed" because he will be viewed as a loser. His core of support consists of nationalists, i.e., people who care about strength, not liberals, i.e., people who care about norms and rules. losing is losing, but also losing territory that you made a massive 'mission accomplished' celebration in Moscow a month earlier over is a particularly pathetic kind of losing. If you want to argue that Russian nationalists care about that distinction less, sure I don't really disagree, but also I challenge you to find me a Russian nationalist who is currently enthusiastic about how the war is going.
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Oct 23, 2022 07:09
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 https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1584054018145685504 the RT guy goes off the rails around 30 seconds in and absolutely does not stop
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Oct 23, 2022 07:15
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Flavahbeast posted:
Wow, that guy. That ending was quite something. "Should Ukraine be on the map?" "Yes, because I don't want to live in the same country as some of those people." "So we will shoot them. *turns and stares at the camera*" Also that tweet understates how much he goes into details with regards to the drowning. He actually thought about the logistics of thay. I don't think I like this man. cant cook creole bream fucked around with this message at 10:38 on Oct 23, 2022 |
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Oct 23, 2022 10:34
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cant cook creole bream posted:Wow, that guy. That ending was quite something. "Should Ukraine be on the map?" "Yes, because I don't want to live in the same country as some of those people." "So we will shoot them. *turns and stares at the camera*" He is a token gay person on RT, by the way, and a complete sociopath who was given way too many golden tickets in his media career.
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Oct 23, 2022 11:11
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In case anyone was confused about those concrete barriers being built to defend against Ukrainian advances, they've been geolocated to inside Russia. 100% grift and propaganda. https://mobile.twitter.com/john_marquee/status/1583945213462032384
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Oct 23, 2022 11:32
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POV of a Russian pilot catapulting from a hit Su-25 cinci edit:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qkT7Q5EHOAc (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST) Somebody fucked around with this message at 02:05 on Oct 24, 2022 |
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Oct 23, 2022 11:34
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A Russian SU30 has crashed in Irkutsk (Russia) in a residential area burning houses, we don't know anything about casualties at this point https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1584135268533039105
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Oct 23, 2022 12:00
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Chalks posted:A Russian SU30 has crashed in Irkutsk (Russia) in a residential area Holy poo poo, another one? Yep completely different location. I like the crowd of people going towards the explosion and fire though
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Oct 23, 2022 12:05
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Some blurry footage clearly showing the crash as it happened https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1584139536057401344 silhouetted aircraft hitting the groundI really wonder if these two crashes are just random coincidence or if this is symptomatic of Russia's airforce being pushed to breaking point without proper repairs/training/pilot rest.
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Oct 23, 2022 12:17
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That's not even the second one, there was another one in Crimea pretty recently and probably way more before that I'm forgetting.
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Oct 23, 2022 12:24
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mobby_6kl posted:That's not even the second one, there was another one in Crimea pretty recently and probably way more before that I'm forgetting. It's the second one this week.
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Oct 23, 2022 12:27
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Note that Irkutsk is right next to Mongolia, so it's hardly in-theater...
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Oct 23, 2022 12:31
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yeah they've lost at least one or two su-24s to 'maintenance issues' or something in the last week or two. Without diving that far into speculation, Russia has lost between a quarter and a half of its main ground attack air power (losses of su-24s and ka-52s have each been exceptionally high). Idk if anyone knows how many they had operational pre-war, but they're already down a quarter or more from the total number they had period and that's going purely off of counts based on burning wrecks on the ground. If they've had that many shot down, how much of their fleet has been shot to poo poo? No wonder they keep falling out the the air.
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Oct 23, 2022 12:34
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OddObserver posted:Note that Irkutsk is right next to Mongolia, so it's hardly in-theater... It is curious. Have they mobilized all the maintenance people or something?
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Oct 23, 2022 12:34
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Chalks posted:Some blurry footage clearly showing the crash as it happened There's no way to tell, as Russian military air accidents are far from rare even in more peaceful times. Looking at the list, 2015 seems to have been a particularly bad year. But it is very interesting that there's two incidents of a fighter colliding in a populated area in such short time. It might tell something about the cause - something so unexpected and so catastrophic that the pilot couldn't do anything to alter course. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Russian_military_accidents
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Oct 23, 2022 12:35
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Chalks posted:In case anyone was confused about those concrete barriers being built to defend against Ukrainian advances, they've been geolocated to inside Russia. 100% grift and propaganda. Building defensive structures next to the armed forces of your enemy seems like a fairly decent idea though?
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Oct 23, 2022 12:36
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Crapilicious posted:It is curious. Have they mobilized all the maintenance people or something? The more planes you fly, the more accidents you are going to have, it's just the way things are. The Russian planes are probably a lot more failure-prone than, say, American planes, for a variety of reasons. Fundamentally, however, most aircraft losses in wars tend to be from accidents and it simply comes with the territory.
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Oct 23, 2022 12:43
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TheRat posted:Building defensive structures next to the armed forces of your enemy seems like a fairly decent idea though? Belgorod is not in immediate (or future) danger of being the target of mechanized offensive, it is a complete waste of resources for short PR gains, which is par for the course for Prigozhin. hmm, Prigozhinot Line
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Oct 23, 2022 12:44
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I think it's mostly a conjecture at this point that something systemic may have changed sharply recently, regarding this week's crashes. Su-30 and Su-34, while both being Su-27 derivatives, are functionally different planes from 90s and 10s respectively. The shared characteristics being like the angle between the wing and the hull, and the model of Garmin fishing unit taped to the pilot's dash, since the engine and so on are all different.
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Oct 23, 2022 12:47
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TheRat posted:Building defensive structures next to the armed forces of your enemy seems like a fairly decent idea though? I'm sure Russia is fairly certain that Ukraine isn't going to try to cross the border with ground forces, they've been taking advantage of this by pouring reinforcements into captured territory and mostly ignoring the international borders. These concrete triangles are pretty useless too, and it's not like Russia doesn't know how to build effective defences. They've made pretty decent defensive structures along the actual front lines. It's just theatre, probably trying to increase support for the war by pretending that Russia proper is in actual danger? But without putting in any real effort, just pushing some concrete traffic cones around and taking some propaganda photos.
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Oct 23, 2022 12:47
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fatherboxx posted:Belgorod is not in immediate (or future) danger of being the target of mechanized offensive, it is a complete waste of resources for short PR gains, which is par for the course for Prigozhin. Yeah, preparing to defend Belgorod is as sensible as preparing to defend Moscow. They should really not waste time and effort on that right now. Though I'm not complaining, every bad decision Russia makes leads to the war ending earlier.
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Oct 23, 2022 12:52
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fatherboxx posted:Belgorod is not in immediate (or future) danger of being the target of mechanized offensive, it is a complete waste of resources for short PR gains, which is par for the course for Prigozhin. I liked "Imaginot line"
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Oct 23, 2022 12:54
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https://38.mchs.gov.ru/deyatelnost/press-centr/novosti/4867002 Government says that this was a test flight, presumably of a freshly built plane from the Irkutsk Aviation Plant, which manufactures Su-30 planes alongside other things. Edit: No apparent civilian casualties, pilot presumed to have suffocated in the cabin, leaving the plane flying until it ran out of fuel. https://twitter.com/ian_matveev/status/1584145180604538881 cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 13:01 on Oct 23, 2022 |
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Oct 23, 2022 12:57
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cinci zoo sniper posted:
That's actually much worse than it being an old airframe they ran into the ground and couldn't maintain.
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