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Dick Ripple posted:If all your enemies (Ukraine/NATO) are talking about a post Putin Russia, it would probably cause a little paranoia and possibly internal division. It is also diffilcult seeing Putin accepting any sort of ceasefire/peace treaty other than Ukraine giving up those regions as Russian territory well as other equally humiliating terms. Yeah, we talk about making sure Russia is defeated to the point where they can't just come back in 5-10-whatever years, but it wouldn't surprise me if Putin is seeing the other side now where a Ukraine rebuilt/rearmed by the West could try to retake the 'annexed' territories (or come after him if he's feeling especially paranoid).
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Oct 24, 2022 22:23
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cinci zoo sniper posted:https://en.zona.media/article/2022/10/24/marriedanddrafted Time to see if quantity has a quality all its own in TYOOL 2022.
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Oct 24, 2022 22:24
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OAquinas posted:Time to see if quantity has a quality all its own in TYOOL 2022. I strongly suspect they're going to eat poo poo to the point where they have almost negative military value.
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Oct 24, 2022 22:41
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sean10mm posted:I strongly suspect they're going to eat poo poo to the point where they have almost negative military value. what do you mean greater logistical burden draining an already stretched thin logistical tail???
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Oct 24, 2022 22:49
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I don't see what is wrong with the letter other than that it assumes Biden hasn't already tried from time to time to find some sort of negotiated solution. All it is really saying is that it would be better if the war ended sooner rather than later while reaffirming the stance that the US should never impose or pressure Ukraine into a settlement that they are not happy with. Is it redundant that what they are asking for is already being tried? Yes. But I don't see anything in the contents of the letter which would make it "stupid".
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Oct 24, 2022 22:55
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The problem is it ignores that Russia is an entirely bad faith actor when it comes to negotiations and honouring their commitments arise from said negotations, while providing something Russia can use in bad faith to waive around and say "Why won't the west negotiate?".
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Oct 24, 2022 22:59
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MikeC posted:I don't see what is wrong with the letter other than that it assumes Biden hasn't already tried from time to time to find some sort of negotiated solution. All it is really saying is that it would be better if the war ended sooner rather than later while reaffirming the stance that the US should never impose or pressure Ukraine into a settlement that they are not happy with. Is it redundant that what they are asking for is already being tried? Yes. But I don't see anything in the contents of the letter which would make it "stupid". I think that's why people are saying it's stupid? Nothing really new but gives something for propagandists to spin in bad faith. If you're trying to build your cred by pushing for a peaceful resolution, the weakest of letters to Biden isn't really it.
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Oct 24, 2022 23:01
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WarpedLichen posted:I think that's why people are saying it's stupid? Nothing really new but gives something for propagandists to spin in bad faith. As opposed to saying "we will never negotiate"? That wouldn't get spinned?
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Oct 24, 2022 23:23
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FishBulbia posted:As opposed to saying "we will never negotiate"? That wouldn't get spinned? That's close to Zelensky's current position. Ukraine said a long time ago that if referendums were held in the conquered territories that there would be no further negotiations. Since then he had said there will be no further negotiations with Putin. So yeah the current Ukrainian state position is that negotiations are over. So the problem with the letter is that it looks like it is undermining that position.
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Oct 24, 2022 23:30
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FishBulbia posted:As opposed to saying "we will never negotiate"? That wouldn't get spinned? I don't think anybody is asking them to say anything at all, so there's no reason a statement had to be made in the first place. I don't think there's anything wrong with keeping a channel open for negotiations, but as others have already pointed out, the previous stance was that Putin must negotiate with Ukraine for peace and not the US. I don't think Biden can push Putin to the negotiations table any more than he has without escalating the war more, so it's about as useful to the real situation as asking Santa for the war to end. The only real thing Biden can do is pressure Ukraine to the negotiations by conceding to Russia, but they specifically say to not do that. Its just a dumb political move because I can't see what side they are trying to appeal to. If you want news coverage you might as well write a strongly worded letter to Putin about ending the war for all the good that's going to do. Its very reminiscent of the early Macron statements about diplomacy, where it's wishful thinking that achieves nothing except make you look like a tool.
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Oct 24, 2022 23:34
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:That's close to Zelensky's current position. Ukraine said a long time ago that if referendums were held in the conquered territories that there would be no further negotiations. Since then he had said there will be no further negotiations with Putin. So yeah the current Ukrainian state position is that negotiations are over. It also got released right when: 1) We know Putin is looking for a ceasefire to gets troops trained and resume the attack. 2) There are new rounds of reports of mass torture in occupied territories.
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Oct 24, 2022 23:39
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WarpedLichen posted:I don't think anybody is asking them to say anything at all, so there's no reason a statement had to be made in the first place. What do you mean by this?
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Oct 24, 2022 23:40
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It's a nothing letter so the Progressive Caucus can say they that we need more money for social programs and maybe see if there is a peaceful solution. I wouldn't pay it much mind.
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Oct 24, 2022 23:48
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mlmp08 posted:What do you mean by this? Is Biden asking the progressive caucus for opinions on what to do during the war? Are they providing an idea on how to achieve peace? Is there somebody in the administration who will slap their head and go geez, framework for peace, I can't believe nobody thought of that before? As far as I know, nobody asked the progressive caucus for a plan, so there is no need to put out a public facing statement on the subject except to make it clear what your positions are for next election. Which is fine, but it seems like a weak statement to make.
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Oct 24, 2022 23:49
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It's actively harmful since it can be taken by Putin as a sign of the West wanting to betray Ukraine.
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Oct 24, 2022 23:52
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WarpedLichen posted:Is Biden asking the progressive caucus for opinions on what to do during the war? Congress members often speak or write without being directed to by the president.
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Oct 24, 2022 23:59
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mlmp08 posted:Congress members often speak or write without being directed to by the president. They're perfectly entitled to say anything they want, whenever they want. Just because they are entitled to put their foot in their mouth doesn't mean they have to do it. Not sure what you're trying to say. AOC can post on twitter saying "I like little kids." It's allowed but it can still be dumb.
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Oct 25, 2022 00:06
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:That's close to Zelensky's current position. Ukraine said a long time ago that if referendums were held in the conquered territories that there would be no further negotiations. Since then he had said there will be no further negotiations with Putin. So yeah the current Ukrainian state position is that negotiations are over. It's not, Zelensky position is that they'll not cede territory
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Oct 25, 2022 00:09
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Do we have any updates on the strategic situation in the war? It seems we've been under blackout for a few days?
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Oct 25, 2022 00:27
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OddObserver posted:It's actively harmful since it can be taken by Putin as a sign of the West wanting to betray Ukraine. Well, I certainly wouldn't want Putin to walk away from this with the wrong impression. What action, or inaction, do you think wouldn't be misinterpreted by the Kremlin? Considering everything that has been on display for 9 months.
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Oct 25, 2022 00:29
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Kraftwerk posted:Do we have any updates on the strategic situation in the war? It seems we've been under blackout for a few days? Sure. Intro and then excerpts as I pick. I cut down on excerpts a lot this time around, because people asked the same couple questions over and over or asking for details on how the IC came to this assessment regarding dirty bombs and nuclear weapons. https://www.defense.gov/News/Transcripts/Transcript/Article/3197746/senior-military-official-holds-a-background-briefing/ -Ukraine is not building dirty bombs and the whole dirty bomb story is bullshit -No indication that Russia is planning to use nuclear weapons or " the kinds of capabilities that I have mentioned." when discussing nuclear weapons and dirty bombs, chemical weapons, biological weapons, etc. -Bakhmut remains dynamic, with Ukraine defending against Russian attacks [My Note: There has been a lot of small scale back and forth as Russia has struggled to try to take Bakhmut for the past 8-11 weeks or so and has managed to get the line up to the eastern edge of the city] -Russian forces are digging in and fortifying defensive lines with troops, trenches, etc vicinity of Kherson City and surrounding area. DOD continuing to refer to Kherson axis as Ukraine being "deliberate and calibrated" in offense. -DOD has not paid SpaceX for Starlink service in Ukraine. quote:SENIOR MILITARY OFFICIAL: All right, well, good morning, everyone. Thank you very much for joining us. (inaudible) here. I will be your briefer today. As a reminder, today's briefing will be on background. You may attribute it to "a senior military official." A few items to cover up top, and then I'll provide an overview of the battlefield in Ukraine.
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Oct 25, 2022 00:56
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Kraftwerk posted:Do we have any updates on the strategic situation in the war? It seems we've been under blackout for a few days? Not a blackout, just not a lot happening. Still not sure 100% what is going on in Kherson (whether the Russians are really leaving and at what speed) but the front lines seem to have gone back into a relatively static phase.
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Oct 25, 2022 00:57
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https://twitter.com/AaronBastani/status/1584641718049464320 Ok, so I've noticed that there are some increasingly apocalyptic commentary on the state of the European economy and predictions about Europe being turned into some kind of wasteland in the next few years, and its a talking point popular among an eclectic group of people who seem to swarm around ideologies like isolationist American nationalism, European nationalism (often of the fascist variety), pro-Russian triumphalism and Tankie inclined Leftism. Like this guy wrote the book 'Fully Automated Luxury Communism' which seemed to be popular with Leftists for a while so he's not nobody. I know that the next few years will be tough, but is there much value in predicting the end of Europe as an economic power like I'm seeing these people do?
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Oct 25, 2022 01:02
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khwarezm posted:https://twitter.com/AaronBastani/status/1584641718049464320 Europe isn't losing its competitiveness because it's buying gas from someone different at somewhat higher prices. Some tougher than ordinary times are ahead, that's all.
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Oct 25, 2022 01:26
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If anything this is likely to do good things for Europe in the future, not being attached at the hip to a dictator's gas supplies and building up more green energy independence as a necessary fix to that. But yes it will be a few tough years and as we're seeing in the UK this has massive implications for political parties. I don't think anyone knows where exactly that will lead, each country has its own issues both economic and political. But Europe has a massive and diverse economy and way better demographics than Russia or China. So while they may be in for some bad times, they're very likely to fare better than their main strategic competitors. This will be a massive boon for the US if the US doesn't implode itself via stupidity... again. Orthanc6 fucked around with this message at 01:49 on Oct 25, 2022 |
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Oct 25, 2022 01:36
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China's running propaganda cartoons targeting the "Russia sanctions are driving EU into ruin and benefitting the US" line, so it's likely the same's running through Russian media streams.
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Oct 25, 2022 01:41
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I wish I had a crystal ball as accurate as these pundits, probably could make a killing on the markets. I like how every country is battling recession fears (because guess what we live in a global economy and disruptions affect everybody) and people are trying to pick winners and losers that probably won't be apparent until at minimum 5 years from now.
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Oct 25, 2022 01:44
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khwarezm posted:https://twitter.com/AaronBastani/status/1584641718049464320 Pretty much everyone is projecting a down trend in Europe for the next couple years since that's what the numbers say. Germany and much of Western Europe in particular made an enormous strategic mistake by becoming so heavily reliant on Russian oil and gas. The new infrastructure necessary to pivot to other sources is costly and will take time to build. In the last few months Germany has been shuttering factories because the power required to run them is just too expensive. Most people are still unaware just how heavily reliant on fossil fuels the world economy is at every level. When you drag those price sliders upwards very bad things happen. That's not an ideological statement unless you want it to be one. Vox Nihili fucked around with this message at 04:01 on Oct 25, 2022 |
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Oct 25, 2022 01:48
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Discendo Vox posted:China's running propaganda cartoons targeting the "Russia sanctions are driving EU into ruin and benefitting the US" line, so it's likely the same's running through Russian media streams. China itself stands to benefit strategically from access to cheap Russian fossil fuel so of course they're projecting that on America.
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Oct 25, 2022 01:50
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khwarezm posted:I know that the next few years will be tough, but is there much value in predicting the end of Europe as an economic power like I'm seeing these people do? Not really, “next few years” is an eternity in economic terms. If you can do they accurately, however, I’d love to get some advice from you.
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Oct 25, 2022 01:58
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The irony of that chart is that a lot of California's current GDP growth is credited to renewables. If anything, the current crisis should show Germany / the EU that not only is cheap Russian energy a dire political choice, but a questionable economic choice in the long term.
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Oct 25, 2022 02:00
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TheDeadlyShoe posted:The irony of that chart is that a lot of California's current GDP growth is credited to renewables. If anything, the current crisis should show Germany / the EU that not only is cheap Russian energy a dire political choice, but a questionable economic choice in the long term. The problem with this is that renewables work a lot better in California than they do in Central or Northern Europe. What renewables do you propose to power Germany with in the winter months when there is basically no sunlight, and when very cold weather typically coincides with zero wind?
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Oct 25, 2022 02:06
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Tuna-Fish posted:The problem with this is that renewables work a lot better in California than they do in Central or Northern Europe. What renewables do you propose to power Germany with in the winter months when there is basically no sunlight, and when very cold weather typically coincides with zero wind? I was more speaking industrially than trying to reboot the German energy debate. Germany's industrial expertise should theoretically apply to manufacturing renewables, even if the domestic market is small. Granted it would be far easier for that sector to develop with a strong domestic demand, but it's not impossible - just look at Germany's status as a shipbuilder. What I'm saying is, go all in on fusion.
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Oct 25, 2022 02:15
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Tuna-Fish posted:The problem with this is that renewables work a lot better in California than they do in Central or Northern Europe. What renewables do you propose to power Germany with in the winter months when there is basically no sunlight, and when very cold weather typically coincides with zero wind? Not only does Germany have huge existing renewable exploitation, but they also have huge potential renewable exploitation both domestically and within close proximity with the right partnerships. Renewable energy doesn’t just consist of rooftop solar and lowlands windmills in Munich.
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Oct 25, 2022 03:27
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By what measure of renewables are we really talking about anyway? It's kinda interesting because the percentage of renewables in terms of electrical power in CA and in Germany are actually comparable. CA looks like its at ~33% of total electrical power https://www.energy.ca.gov/data-reports/energy-almanac/california-electricity-data/2021-total-system-electric-generation and Germany is at ~41.1% https://www.umweltbundesamt.de/en/topics/climate-energy/renewable-energies/renewable-energies-in-figures Kinda not apples to apples, but renewables really isn't the catch all answer to economic woes especially when heating and manufacturing are considered.
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Oct 25, 2022 03:37
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archangelwar posted:Not only does Germany have huge existing renewable exploitation, but they also have huge potential renewable exploitation both domestically and within close proximity with the right partnerships. Renewable energy doesn’t just consist of rooftop solar and lowlands windmills in Munich. Europe has a big tidal variance for example
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Oct 25, 2022 03:50
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Vox Nihili posted:China itself stands to benefit strategically from access to cheap Russian fossil fuel so of course they're projecting that on America. This would only theoretically be something if China wasn't on the actual brink of collapse as a country, unlike the EU simply going through hard times. If Russia gets the short end of the stick, that's by definition going to impact China as well, every level. BRICS isn't BRICS if every one of em is collapsed. Of all financial situations on this planet to be in a bad shape, China's is arguably the worst. Even if GDP of Germany is bypassed by the US (California), it isn't going to say much as to the ongoing war financing or otherwise. Germany could be smaller or bigger and their material amount of assistance (not political, for that matter) I would *guess* would remain similar. notwithoutmyanus fucked around with this message at 04:17 on Oct 25, 2022 |
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Oct 25, 2022 04:08
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notwithoutmyanus posted:This would only theoretically be something if China wasn't on the actual brink of collapse as a country, unlike the EU simply going through hard times. If Russia gets the short end of the stick, that's by definition going to impact China as well, every level. BRICS isn't BRICS if every one of em is collapsed. Of all financial situations on this planet to be in a bad shape, China's is arguably the worst. Even if GDP of Germany is bypassed by the US, it isn't going to say much as to the ongoing war financing or otherwise. Germany could be smaller or bigger and their material amount of assistance (not political, for that matter) I would *guess* would remain similar. I might be misreading your post, but I think you’re greatly overstating the economic problems affecting the People’s Republic right now. Maybe I’m missing something. There are massive malinvestment problems that need to get fixed, but I don’t see indications that China isn’t up to the task of fixing them. I also don’t see indications of the CCP’s grip on power weakening. If anything, Xi has tightened its grip quite a lot. China’s not on the brink of collapse. Eric Cantonese fucked around with this message at 04:25 on Oct 25, 2022 |
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Oct 25, 2022 04:18
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European states individually are mostly depopulating or stagnating places with limited natural resources. IDK how them no longer being comparable to the productive end of literally continent spanning countries is supposed to shocking unless you were frozen in like 1912 and just woke up.
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Oct 25, 2022 04:20
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FishBulbia posted:European states individually are mostly depopulating or stagnating places with limited natural resources. IDK how them no longer being comparable to the productive end of literally continent spanning countries is supposed to shocking unless you were frozen in like 1912 and just woke up. And talking about natural resources doesn't make much sense especially in this context, California isn't really a petro or mining state, its economy is driven more by tech and media, often tech and media that is successful internationally.
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Oct 25, 2022 05:10
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