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Cicero posted:In a lot of more left leaning discussions on the internet, the framing is that the US is pants on head idiotic policy-wise compared to (Western) Europe. While this is frequently accurate, it somewhat conflicts with the US going from strength to strength economically: if the US keeps picking poo poo policies, why is it doing so much better in terms of productivity? Not to derail, but as much as people say "America is like playing a game of geopolitics on easy mode with cheats on" if California were a new country founded yesterday it would be ludicrously competitive from a natural resources and climate/geography standpoint.
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Oct 25, 2022 05:32
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Cicero posted:In a lot of more left leaning discussions on the internet, the framing is that the US is pants on head idiotic policy-wise compared to (Western) Europe. While this is frequently accurate, it somewhat conflicts with the US going from strength to strength economically: if the US keeps picking poo poo policies, why is it doing so much better in terms of productivity? I mean how much of that is because of global hegemony and being the world's reserve currency? Effectively unlimited borrowing is pretty good for the economy.
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Oct 25, 2022 05:55
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Eric Cantonese posted:Yup. Cori Bush, AOC, Ilhan Omar and Ayanna Pressley are among the signatories. This reminds me of when the Swedish left party burned a year worth of political gains in a single day by voting against weapon shipments to Ukraine. Yes, I get that it was some grandstand against weapon exports/NATO etc. And they knew it was going to pass anyway, but shut up! Just this once.
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Oct 25, 2022 06:06
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Tuna-Fish posted:What renewables do you propose to power Germany with in the winter months when there is basically no sunlight, and when very cold weather typically coincides with zero wind? I hear nuclear is pretty great for base load.
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Oct 25, 2022 06:22
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MikeC posted:I don't see what is wrong with the letter other than that it assumes Biden hasn't already tried from time to time to find some sort of negotiated solution. All it is really saying is that it would be better if the war ended sooner rather than later while reaffirming the stance that the US should never impose or pressure Ukraine into a settlement that they are not happy with. Is it redundant that what they are asking for is already being tried? Yes. But I don't see anything in the contents of the letter which would make it "stupid". that's largely my feeling, the letter just doesn't say much (albeit if it doesn't say much, why the gently caress even release it other than obvious electoral considerations) the really bad part were the progressive caucus' tweets in support of it. This one in particular https://twitter.com/USProgressives/status/1584611024116015105?s=20&t=RvBLlDbbQ0mSPJ3Bp3MTag MikeC posted:Not a blackout, just not a lot happening. Still not sure 100% what is going on in Kherson (whether the Russians are really leaving and at what speed) but the front lines seem to have gone back into a relatively static phase. yes there is 100% a ukrainian information blackout (albeit obviously it's not perfectly effective). Russia has also blown up internet and cellular infrastructure in Kherson as well as having recently cracked down on Russian mil bloggers so there's not much info coming out of any side right now. Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 06:28 on Oct 25, 2022 |
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Oct 25, 2022 06:22
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While NATO/US will not negiotiate anything without Ukraine at the table, they will have a say (probably not publicly) when that time comes. There could be a scenario(s) where Russia does offer something appeasing to the West and not Ukraine. For instance pulling its forces out of Ukraine/Donbass, be willing to demilitarize those regions they annexed illegally, and hold elections in those regions in regards to a future with Ukraine or Russia (there are obvious problems with these proposals). If the war drags and and becomes stagnant in another year or so I could see a ceasfire deal such as this being quite diffilcult for western governments to not look at seriously and pressure Ukraine to do something they would rather not.
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Oct 25, 2022 07:00
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Dick Ripple posted:While NATO/US will not negiotiate anything without Ukraine at the table, they will have a say (probably not publicly) when that time comes. There could be a scenario(s) where Russia does offer something appeasing to the West and not Ukraine. For instance pulling its forces out of Ukraine/Donbass, be willing to demilitarize those regions they annexed illegally, and hold elections in those regions in regards to a future with Ukraine or Russia (there are obvious problems with these proposals). If the war drags and and becomes stagnant in another year or so I could see a ceasfire deal such as this being quite diffilcult for western governments to not look at seriously and pressure Ukraine to do something they would rather not. Why? At least for the US, Russia's war doesn't seem to be causing any difficulty. The loss of Russian gas is perhaps difficult in the short term for Europe, but I hope they aren't stupid enough to get hooked on it a second time, ceasefire or no.
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Oct 25, 2022 07:15
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Family Values posted:Why? At least for the US, Russia's war doesn't seem to be causing any difficulty. The loss of Russian gas is perhaps difficult in the short term for Europe, but I hope they aren't stupid enough to get hooked on it a second time, ceasefire or no. Cracks in the Atlantic coalition aren't really in the US' best interests...
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Oct 25, 2022 07:17
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Isn't having nearly 500k conscripts kind of a bad idea for Russia right now? They're going to have to feed and pay those guys (yes, poorly, but it still adds up), and have them not contributing to the economy, and winter is here which I assume slows down operations.
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Oct 25, 2022 08:05
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Tuna-Fish posted:The problem with this is that renewables work a lot better in California than they do in Central or Northern Europe. What renewables do you propose to power Germany with in the winter months when there is basically no sunlight, and when very cold weather typically coincides with zero wind? Germany's electricity surplus is largest in winter, in large part due to the over abundance of wind. It is lower in summer, due to the lack of wind.
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Oct 25, 2022 08:14
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Scaramouche posted:Isn't having nearly 500k conscripts kind of a bad idea for Russia right now? They're going to have to feed and pay those guys (yes, poorly, but it still adds up), and have them not contributing to the economy, and winter is here which I assume slows down operations. An operational lull would be the best time to train new troops and rotate worn out units. Russian economy is not exactly in shortage of labour right now, lots of factories are closed because of lack of components.
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Oct 25, 2022 08:17
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Scaramouche posted:Isn't having nearly 500k conscripts kind of a bad idea for Russia right now? They're going to have to feed and pay those guys (yes, poorly, but it still adds up), and have them not contributing to the economy, and winter is here which I assume slows down operations. Though they will increase use of all types of supplies a lot those 500k dudes will be used to shore up the logistics too, so it's not like they will be just standing in a trench and act as a black hole for supplies.
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Oct 25, 2022 08:18
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Dick Ripple posted:While NATO/US will not negiotiate anything without Ukraine at the table, they will have a say (probably not publicly) when that time comes. There could be a scenario(s) where Russia does offer something appeasing to the West and not Ukraine. For instance pulling its forces out of Ukraine/Donbass, be willing to demilitarize those regions they annexed illegally, and hold elections in those regions in regards to a future with Ukraine or Russia (there are obvious problems with these proposals). If the war drags and and becomes stagnant in another year or so I could see a ceasfire deal such as this being quite diffilcult for western governments to not look at seriously and pressure Ukraine to do something they would rather not. They already did the "referendum" there, they're not going to do another one. And how is it supposed to work anyway? Hey Biden, stop sending weapons and we promise to withdraw forces (but still retain claims???) on the occupied territories? And we don't care if Ukraine won't stop fighting?
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Oct 25, 2022 08:46
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TheRat posted:I hear nuclear is pretty great for base load. France is pretty heavy on nuclear (selling excess nuclear electricity to Germany even) but Germany has made it a huge political issue to not use nuclear power. The political climate is such that plans for nuclear plants are political suicide. Even if the coal plants used to fill in the gaps are having much worse total effect on health/life expectancy than nuclear power would, meltdown risk included.
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Oct 25, 2022 08:59
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Griefor posted:France is pretty heavy on nuclear (selling excess nuclear electricity to Germany even) but Germany has made it a huge political issue to not use nuclear power. The political climate is such that plans for nuclear plants are political suicide. Even if the coal plants used to fill in the gaps are having much worse total effect on health/life expectancy than nuclear power would, meltdown risk included. I heard something happened this February that made Germans rethink their stance on nuclear power
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Oct 25, 2022 09:09
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Arzachel posted:I heard something happened this February that made Germans rethink their stance on nuclear power You heard wrong, by and large.
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Oct 25, 2022 09:10
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mobby_6kl posted:They already did the "referendum" there, they're not going to do another one. And how is it supposed to work anyway? Hey Biden, stop sending weapons and we promise to withdraw forces (but still retain claims???) on the occupied territories? And we don't care if Ukraine won't stop fighting? Like I said, there are obvious problems with these proposals. But to answer your question directly said elections/referendums would have international backing and oversight, and would happen after Russia removes all their forces out of Ukraine as defined by the pre 2014 borders and in addition there here would be no stopping of military or other assistance to Ukraine. How likely would this to occcur? I would give it a non 0% chance, but not much greater than that long as Putin is in charge. It is mostly a thought experiment on what sort of ceasefire deals Russia could offer that would be supported by NATO/US and their populations but not Ukraine, and how this could cause reduced support for Ukraine.
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Oct 25, 2022 09:12
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Dick Ripple posted:Like I said, there are obvious problems with these proposals. I still feel this is giving the invader way too much agency into matters of another country. Welp, the invasion didn't work out, now let's try to carve it out with a hail mary. Why shouldn't there by referenda in the regions of Russia bordering Ukraine? Maybe throw in Kaliningrad (Czechia seems to have a good claim, will and even results for that one), Sakhalin and a few other places for good measure.
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Oct 25, 2022 09:32
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Dick Ripple posted:Like I said, there are obvious problems with these proposals. Did you mean this to be exactly what Elon proposed on twitter before the idea got shat on by everybody? If you believe Elon did get fed the idea by the Kremlin, a likely next thought should be if Putin would have made moves to actually make it an official offer if the reception wasn't overwhelmingly negative. This seems incredibly unlikely to me, 99% he was just throwing bs to weaken western resolve and get it into the public consciousness. I agree that there is a non-zero chance of political fuckery happening as the war drags on, but we're likely years out at this point. I'm honestly a bit frustrated that Western messaging hasn't been that this conflict will likely last a decade and that the public should prepare for the long haul, but asking for individual sacrifice for the greater good just seems untenable for modern democracies.
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Oct 25, 2022 09:35
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mmkay posted:I still feel this is giving the invader way too much agency into matters of another country. Welp, the invasion didn't work out, now let's try to carve it out with a hail mary. Why shouldn't there by referenda in the regions of Russia bordering Ukraine? Maybe throw in Kaliningrad (Czechia seems to have a good claim, will and even results for that one), Sakhalin and a few other places for good measure. I agree with you but also in the end it is up to Ukraine what they will or will not accept. Ukraine will most likely not accept poo poo like this but if they choose to all of us in the west are just going to have to swallow it.
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Oct 25, 2022 09:43
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Electric Wrigglies posted:You heard wrong, by and large. https://www.energymonitor.ai/policy/weekly-data-shift-in-germanys-perception-of-nuclear-energy Not sure if that is a reliable source. My non-German opinion is that Der Atommüll sucks, but it sucks less than than dirty air from Die Steinkohle, and Die Erpressung from the Russian regime. Chill Monster fucked around with this message at 09:48 on Oct 25, 2022 |
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Oct 25, 2022 09:43
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WarpedLichen posted:I mean how much of that is because of global hegemony and being the world's reserve currency? Effectively unlimited borrowing is pretty good for the economy. This article goes into those talking points (not reproducing the diagrams here): https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/28/opinion/us-dollars-currency.html Krugman posted:Cryptocurrency was supposed to replace government-issued fiat currency in our daily lives. It hasn’t. But one thing I’m still hearing from the faithful is that Bitcoin, or Ethereum, or maybe some crypto asset introduced by the Chinese, will soon replace the dollar as the global currency of choice. At least according to Krugman, they're BS. Mr. Smile Face Hat fucked around with this message at 14:39 on Oct 25, 2022 |
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Oct 25, 2022 11:32
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What was the impetus for yesterday's "call for negotiation" from the Progressive Caucus? The midterms?
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Oct 25, 2022 11:41
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Rinkles posted:What was the impetus for yesterday's "call for negotiation" from the Progressive Caucus? The midterms? Who knows, especially since one of the signers claims it was from July: https://mobile.twitter.com/MarkPocan/status/1584705680065564672 (Not that there were no torture camps in July).
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Oct 25, 2022 11:47
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Griefor posted:I agree with you but also in the end it is up to Ukraine what they will or will not accept. Ukraine will most likely not accept poo poo like this but if they choose to all of us in the west are just going to have to swallow it. I think it's sad, but since Ukraine's defense is very dependent on Western aid they will probably not be alone in making the decision even if they should. There might be a point where the West puts pressure on Kiev to end this and they won't be able to just say no.
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Oct 25, 2022 12:35
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For the average American who isn’t terminally online, they see these news articles about massive billion dollar aid and weapons packages to Ukraine and then they look at the dwindling number in their bank account.
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Oct 25, 2022 12:36
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Eh, the median American has been in favor of blowing up Russians since, like, 1945. There is a danger that if the Republicans take over our support for Ukraine will waiver but that's no more due to popular pressure than anything else in the republican platform. It isn't the median American driving republican politics.
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Oct 25, 2022 12:39
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As far as I can tell the support has beep pretty negligible when compared to the annual military spending even now, let alone during Iraq+Afghanistan adventures. Considering how mad some people get about a few millions in foreign development aid though, of course this could be leveraged by the chuds too though. But it seems that McCarthy got slapped for this and it's maybe a few dozen assholes who would vote against, at least so far.
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Oct 25, 2022 12:55
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Putin’s army needs to get out of all of Ukraine and then peace talks can happen with Russia. Negotiating peace from a point of strength is smart and strategic. “We’re willing to talk but we are more than happy to support this sovereign nation clowning on you as well.” I know click bait and those weak progressives trying to be framed as Neville Chamberlain in the news. Reality is never as easy as people will meme or write terrible op eds as news pieces about.
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Oct 25, 2022 13:24
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mobby_6kl posted:As far as I can tell the support has beep pretty negligible when compared to the annual military spending even now, let alone during Iraq+Afghanistan adventures. Considering how mad some people get about a few millions in foreign development aid though, of course this could be leveraged by the chuds too though. But it seems that McCarthy got slapped for this and it's maybe a few dozen assholes who would vote against, at least so far. To be fair McCarthy isn't likely to be Speaker even if they win a majority at this point. If the GOP wins a majority they are so fractured that there is going to be massive amounts of infighting and little accomplished. McCarthy was never a strong leader there in the first place and will be less so going forward there is already several people being floated as replacements for him. Say what you will about McConnell but he has his caucus under a pretty tight leash and carries a big enough stick that even when someone like McCarthy steps out of line he can shut them down pretty quickly. I don't see Ukrainian support drying up any time soon. If nothing else the MIC spending is basically a US jobs program and pulling back spending on that will hurt whomever does it pretty heavily even without the optics currently.
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Oct 25, 2022 13:53
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Djarum posted:Say what you will about McConnell but he has his caucus under a pretty tight leash and carries a big enough stick that even when someone like McCarthy steps out of line he can shut them down pretty quickly. Also, aside from stupid assholes like Cruz who aren't liked and would never get the job, Senate Majority Leader is not a job any of the other reasonable alternatives really want. The speaker has more of an ability to be a bit of a firebrand in the house as long as they don't go too far, but the majority leader has to always keep 50+1 wanna-be future presidents in line, never gets credit for making that happen, and always gets the blame from activists whenever he fails. McConnell always gets support because if he quits, someone else has to take over.
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Oct 25, 2022 14:09
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So y'all saying that Trump would be the perfect speaker?
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Oct 25, 2022 14:15
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WarpedLichen posted:I mean how much of that is because of global hegemony and being the world's reserve currency? Effectively unlimited borrowing is pretty good for the economy. A little derail, but there's a convincing argument that while it's good for the US financially, it hurts the broader economy because the dollar is going to be artificially strong and increase the cost of imports. The US economically is weird, I went to grad school with a lot of South Koreans who pointed out that a lot of things they were learning were very specific to the US and other countries need to have different considerations (because, as mentioned, they're not playing international economics on easy mode).
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Oct 25, 2022 14:27
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The biggest risk for Ukraine re: the US congress isn’t really a bloc of legislators whittling down aid packages, it’s if US political dysfunction results in a disaster like breaching the debt ceiling or an extended government shutdown. Not only would the spigot get turned off during the acute crisis, if there is a meaningful economic hangover or a negotiated settlement contingent on deficit reduction the political will for supporting Ukraine will probably be amongst the first casualties.
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Oct 25, 2022 14:40
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Morrow posted:A little derail, but there's a convincing argument that while it's good for the US financially, it hurts the broader economy because the dollar is going to be artificially strong and increase the cost of imports. I had posted a reply on this page to the post you’re quoting. It addresses the “easy mode”.
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Oct 25, 2022 14:41
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A lack of funding would not stop the conflict, it would just turn it more sectarian and guerilla. I don't want this to happen, as post-war sectarian violence stands to be a decades long problem that wouldn't get better by it starting earlier, but even if the Ukranian proper forces were destitute and frozen solid there'd be no halt to operations big enough to actually negotiate a peace, I feel. From the Russian perspective, probably by design, since like other former Soviet states battling Russian backed paramilitaries right now they can't really look to NATO proper while they have that conflict going on.
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Oct 25, 2022 15:46
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OddObserver posted:Who knows, especially since one of the signers claims it was from July: or June, lol https://twitter.com/repsarajacobs/status/1584923231882035200 What a farce
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Oct 25, 2022 16:25
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Whoever decided to send that letter needs a talking to then.
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Oct 25, 2022 16:34
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Mooseontheloose posted:Whoever decided to send that letter needs a talking to then. Whoever sent it now meant to
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Oct 25, 2022 16:43
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Mooseontheloose posted:Whoever decided to send that letter needs a talking to then. I don't think the letter being from June/July makes it any less dumb. The lack of content or meaningful call to action is what makes it dumb. That it got picked up by the media closer to the election as a political weapon is just taking advantage of its inherent dumbness. Mr. Smile Face Hat posted:I had posted a reply on this page to the post you’re quoting. It addresses the “easy mode”. Not to continue the derail for much longer or to be a crazy conspiracy theorist, but Bernake has downplayed the role of being the reserve currency since 2016: https://www.brookings.edu/blog/ben-bernanke/2016/01/07/the-dollars-international-role-an-exorbitant-privilege-2/. I'm just not fully convinced that economists are right (granted they are far more likely to be right than me) because its so hard to measure and we don't have a world where the US isn't the reserve currency to compare against. We do know there are some supposed perks and influence because other countries like China do desire a piece of the pie.
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