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JunkDeluxe posted:I recommend this podcast from Mark Galeotti for people who like's listening to them What's his take on the current situation? Can you boil him down? Sounds interesting but finding time for a new podcast is like finding time for a new job.
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Oct 26, 2022 13:15
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Reportedly Wagner is trying to recruit former Afghan special forces to fight for Russia. I have long wondered if real mercenary companies will make a return. NATO doesn't want to get directly involved in the war, but a hypothetical Afghan merc company wouldn't represent NATO even if they were paid by the west... https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/10/25/afghanistan-russia-ukraine-military-recruitment-putin-taliban/?tpcc=recirc_latest062921 quote:Members of Afghanistan’s elite National Army Commando Corps, who were abandoned by the United States and Western allies when the country fell to the Taliban last year, say they are being contacted with offers to join the Russian military to fight in Ukraine. Multiple Afghan military and security sources say the U.S.-trained light infantry force, which fought alongside U.S. and other allied special forces for almost 20 years, could make the difference Russia needs on the Ukrainian battlefield.
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Oct 26, 2022 13:15
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https://mobile.twitter.com/AricToler/status/1584901381374328838 At this point if I was someone born in South America living in a NATO country and had regular contact with army or security organisations, I would start feeling a need to emphasize that I'm not a Russian mole. Wearing a 'not a Russian undercover agent' shirt with fresh guacamole stains should solve that.
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Oct 26, 2022 13:48
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Nenonen posted:https://mobile.twitter.com/AricToler/status/1584901381374328838 Gotta need to start testing for Russian spies by making them eat tasty spicy food.
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Oct 26, 2022 14:10
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Sucrose posted:I think it shows conclusively why bigger and stronger countries don’t just gobble up much smaller and weaker neighboring countries. Because wars are to a large degree about how engaged the population is in them, and nothing motivates people to fight like the threat of their country being annexed and culture wiped out. A country has to have some massive advantages over the locals in order to take and permanently hold territory where the populace really really really doesn’t want them there. An ruling power has to try and build legitimacy among the people it rules, and a sovereign state taking territory from another sovereign state has zero legitimacy. It would be a tall order even if the populace started out with a highly unfavorable opinion of their current government and a positive view of the annexer’s government. Turds in magma posted:See also: the US in Afghanistan/Iraq. Even with another order of magnitude more firepower than Russia, against a country with an order of magnitude less firepower than Ukraine, it's a total poo poo show unless you commit yourself to full-on genocide. First is that I don't think it's a stretch to say that the war is going really badly for Russia. I think part of their problem is that it's more difficult generally for countries to achieve their goals in the world today by traditional means such as military power, because the world has grown more interdependent. It's not really possible for an army to occupy a country and isolate it from the rest of the world anymore, especially a country like Ukraine. One of the deadliest weapons aimed at U.S. troops in Iraq were explosively-formed penetrators made in Iran as the U.S. was fighting two insurgencies at the same time, with Al Qaeda flooding into the country from the other direction just to get the chance to shoot at Americans. Now think about all the missiles and other weapons that have flooded into Ukraine from the U.S. and Europe. Didn't the British send 6,500 shoulder-fired anti-tank rockets to Ukraine? I saw an M270 MLRS rolling down the highway on the back of a flatbed truck recently and it was probably just pulled out of mothball status and was being shipped to Ukraine. It's not a big deal -- you just grab the old junk that's still deadly and send it on its way with express delivery. So how does Russia achieve a "military solution" when the Ukrainian war effort is interdependent with the United States and Europe? It doesn't seem very likely at this rate. A related trend has been the growing importance of soft power and cultural power in the world. The United States still has a lot of advantages here. One of the most important ways the U.S. exerts influence in the world isn't through direct military means but through cultural and political influence, which is more subtle, many Americans don't even realize it because they're immersed in it already. But this has its downsides as well. One of the consequences of the growing interdependence of the world is more homogenization of world culture into what Benjamin Barber described as McWorld. Russia pulling down all the McDonald's signs wasn't just a business decison, it was a cultural reaction in a country where enough people (who matter) are purging stuff that is too "Western." It's like a struggle for recognition in a world of increasing sameness. They don't feel the U.S. has treated them fairly -- whether you agree with that sentiment or not -- and they're saying "we exist, we're Russians, you got a problem with that?" It's a phenomenon that is happening in different forms all over the world. And it's happening in Ukraine too. Part of their struggle is not just to fend off a Russian invasion, it's struggling for the West to recognise them that they're *not* Russians, that they're different, and they're ready to prove it. How does Russia defeat that? That doesn't seem very likely either. There are some cultural conflicts that pattern-map onto the war, with the pro-Russian side saying the Ukrainians are simply wanting to become Western clones. But I don't think that's how it's interpreted in Ukraine because this war of cultural sovereignty is tied up in a distinct Ukrainian identity and language that is actively being formed and asserted by the conflict. And this is creating new fissues in Central Asia when Putin visited the regional summit and the presidents of these countries were telling him "you can't treat us like second-class countries anymore." Because the international system is not synchronized with Russian concepts, it's difficult for Russia to convince other countries to do what it wants. At the same time, there's another contradiction in that there has also been an assertion of a Russian cultural identity in Donbass (or even Soviet identity often enough, of which the Russian Federation is the inheritor).
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Oct 26, 2022 14:11
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Owling Howl posted:
Yeah, War Mapper as well is saying that the Ukrainians have made progress on the Luhansk front in recent days. I wouldn't call it a Russian collapse, though - the gains made by Ukraine have been modest so far.
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Oct 26, 2022 14:14
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Phlegmish posted:Yeah, War Mapper as well is saying that the Ukrainians have made progress on the Luhansk front in recent days. I wouldn't call it a Russian collapse, though - the gains made by Ukraine have been modest so far. Still, it's a sign that things are moving again after a brief pause (which I assume was largely Ukraine resting its troops). And the way things have gone before has been reasonable gains leading to a sudden big surge, I wouldn't be surprised if it happened again.
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Oct 26, 2022 14:33
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The Lord of Hats posted:Still, it's a sign that things are moving again after a brief pause (which I assume was largely Ukraine resting its troops). And the way things have gone before has been reasonable gains leading to a sudden big surge, I wouldn't be surprised if it happened again. I think the most notable thing is that 2 months after the Kharkov rout the same "shell, push, surround" strategy is still working. Given that this is ground they've held for months, and they know where the attack is coming you'd expect them to be able to halt it or at least inflict heavy enough casualties that they're forced to regroup. If this continues it's going to be a brutal, dispiriting winter for the Russians.
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Oct 26, 2022 14:41
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Herstory Begins Now posted:That's a really good article and it's kind of wild because, in retrospect, a lot of the rumors about just how full Belarusian hospitals were with Russian service members was a lot truer than I think most people dared to believe early on. It took months for the full scope of the mauling that Russia took in the first weeks of the war to really sink in and be comprehended. Sure there were rumors of entire units getting wiped out and the sheer quantity of wreckage and the footage of traffic jams of ambulances in Belarus leaving train depots made it clear that some pretty extreme stuff was happening, but idk I always took any wild-seeming claims of extremely heavy russian casualties with a huge grain of salt because those numbers always get inflated. Except when they weren't and it actually was that bad. I'd only read the tweets but yeah that's a great article ( https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2022/10/europe/belarus-hospitals-russian-soldiers-ukraine/ again for anyone else). I'm not convinced by the argument that it draws Belarus more integrally into the actual warfare though. I couldn't find any details at all about the actual numbers, but it looks like even hundreds of injured Ukrainian military are also being treated in Germany ( https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/ru...FZ79ljye0ro1zpF and https://www.airforcetimes.com/news/2022/07/27/us-military-to-treat-wounded-ukrainian-troops-at-landstuhl-hospital/). I imagine they are trying to keep it OpSec for just how many people that they are treating.
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Oct 26, 2022 14:44
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Seems like Russia only has so many missiles and drones to blow up Ukrainian infrastructure with? I wonder how frequently they can make the kind of those attacks.
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Oct 26, 2022 14:54
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I feel silly for asking but why is it even noteworthy that Belarussia is healing Russian soldiers? Like.. Russia attacked straight from their territory already, Russia is using their airbases. What is so significant about having some doctors heal some wounded men? I get it from the article that it is an oppressive regime and the docs do not want to heal the Russian soldiers. They feel they are somehow forced to contribute to the war while they are not soldiers and do not want to do so but.. Why is this situation a noteworthy scoop? The idea that docs need to escape the country to talk about healing the soldiers is several times more noteworthy for me than the actual fact of them doing it.
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Oct 26, 2022 14:59
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As a Medic, I don't understand the controversy at all. Treating the wounded is kind of a universal prerogative. There's certainly a lot of wounded Russians in Ukrainian hospitals, too.
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Oct 26, 2022 15:15
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SirTagz posted:I feel silly for asking but why is it even noteworthy that Belarussia is healing Russian soldiers? It's further data on how heavy Russian casualties were early on in the war.
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Oct 26, 2022 15:16
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Daduzi posted:It's further data on how heavy Russian casualties were early on in the war. Also an interesting and well-researched article that includes a video interview with the medic who escaped Belarus with the X-rays (that I have not watched yet bc in office) I don't think things have to be controversial to be interesting or worth writing about 
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Oct 26, 2022 15:21
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Zwabu posted:Seems like Russia only has so many missiles and drones to blow up Ukrainian infrastructure with? I wonder how frequently they can make the kind of those attacks. Sadly Ukraine also has only so many power plants.
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Oct 26, 2022 15:23
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Daduzi posted:It's further data on how heavy Russian casualties were early on in the war. I'd add that it gives insight to Russia propaganda: They can't be telling folks "Oh, the war is going swimmingly" if the TV news is full of pictures of human interest stories of brave russian soldiers suffering in the hospital. Kinda like that thing from the Naked Gun series where Leslie Nielsen told folks to stay calm, there's nothing to worry about (in front of a exploded burning building) So, they shuffled em out of sight (Literally, to another country) and hoped that there wasn't enough leaks of scuttlebutt (such as a soldier texting home "Hi Mom, I'm severely wounded, in hospital Belarus with a bunch of my mates") that the proleteriat wouldn't have a reason to disbelieve the propaganda they were being told
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Oct 26, 2022 15:37
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SirFozzie posted:I'd add that it gives insight to Russia propaganda: They can't be telling folks "Oh, the war is going swimmingly" if the TV news is full of pictures of human interest stories of brave russian soldiers suffering in the hospital. Kinda like that thing from the Naked Gun series where Leslie Nielsen told folks to stay calm, there's nothing to worry about (in front of a exploded burning building) I think the much simpler explanation is that they used Belarus as staging area for the attack on Kyiv, so they brought their casualties there because it was the nearest thing with hospital care and along the road. There was plenty of reporting about Russian casualties being taken to Russian hospitals in the regions bordering Ukraine, too.
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Oct 26, 2022 15:49
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saratoga posted:I think the most notable thing is that 2 months after the Kharkov rout the same "shell, push, surround" strategy is still working. Given that this is ground they've held for months, and they know where the attack is coming you'd expect them to be able to halt it or at least inflict heavy enough casualties that they're forced to regroup. If this continues it's going to be a brutal, dispiriting winter for the Russians. Also that the strategy of filling up the frontline with fresh conscripts hasn't stopped Ukraine from achieving gains. Has there been any news on conscripts receiving actual training? I haven't been as diligent following the news the last few weeks, was it just a complete shitshow, or did at least some training happen for some of the conscripts?
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Oct 26, 2022 16:06
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Newsnewsnews More on Belarus, other intelligence insights. If anyone gets behind the paywall plz link. Also would appreciate commentary on source site reliability from any EE posters - https://ekspress.delfi.ee/artikkel/120088276/mikk-marrani-viimane-intervjuu-luurejuhina-teeme-seaduslikult-ebaseaduslikke-asju https://twitter.com/holger_r/status/1585194818313277441?s=20&t=4MQ1IyxeGOWI_Rb-E4NOfQ https://twitter.com/holger_r/status/1585194822704705542?s=20&t=4MQ1IyxeGOWI_Rb-E4NOfQ https://twitter.com/holger_r/status/1585194826953527296?s=20&t=4MQ1IyxeGOWI_Rb-E4NOfQ Yes Russia did a nuclear EDIT for accuracy: response exercise. No it's not reason to Clancychat https://twitter.com/CameronJJJ/status/1585257699784392706?s=20&t=4MQ1IyxeGOWI_Rb-E4NOfQ Speaking of Nuclear - IAEA says there's no evidence that Ukraine is building at dirty bomb at two of the sites Russia claims it is https://twitter.com/KyivPost/status/1585202483307368448?s=20&t=RkrMSZmwh8J867V849eztg They keep pushing the line though https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1585212510357295104?s=20&t=RkrMSZmwh8J867V849eztg Russia apparently going full war economy...7 months in - Moscow Times article source for the below: https://www.moscowtimes.eu/2022/10/25/putin-poruchil-zapustit-voennuyu-ekonomiku-a25703 https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1585188434351919104?s=20&t=4MQ1IyxeGOWI_Rb-E4NOfQ From the Moscow Times Article: quote:Russian President Vladimir Putin held the first meeting of the coordinating council to meet the needs of the Armed Forces on Tuesday. Insider article source, in Russian: https://theins.ru/news/256416 - Occupation officials confirmed it.https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1585267747520495617?s=20&t=4MQ1IyxeGOWI_Rb-E4NOfQ quote:The Russian military stole a monument to Prince Grigory Potemkin and his remains from the St. Catherine's Church in Kherson. This was announced by the head of the occupation administration of the city Vladimir Saldo. https://twitter.com/CovertShores/status/1585190336225513472?s=20&t=RkrMSZmwh8J867V849eztg https://twitter.com/Herman_Caron/status/1585216540760121344?s=20&t=RkrMSZmwh8J867V849eztg Revenge for the Potemkin theft? Lol probably not but partisans at work https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1585242646683193344?s=20&t=4MQ1IyxeGOWI_Rb-E4NOfQ Also already posted I think but Ukraine confirmed to have NSAMs, plus some bonus railway sabotage. https://twitter.com/TWMCLtd/status/1585185711778824192?s=20&t=4MQ1IyxeGOWI_Rb-E4NOfQ More POWs coming back - shows there's still communications open about that at least https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1585260034896068609?s=20&t=4MQ1IyxeGOWI_Rb-E4NOfQ French news documentary on how Russian POWs are held in Ukraine - untranslated but still interesting to watch regardless https://twitter.com/MaryseBurgot/status/1585130671009210368?s=20&t=RkrMSZmwh8J867V849eztg Good thing  Jose Andres is a treasurehttps://twitter.com/NeilPHauer/status/1585275402213277697?s=20&t=4MQ1IyxeGOWI_Rb-E4NOfQ Another nice thing https://twitter.com/sumlenny/status/1585169668121427969?s=20&t=RkrMSZmwh8J867V849eztg KitConstantine fucked around with this message at 16:50 on Oct 26, 2022 |
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Oct 26, 2022 16:10
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KitConstantine posted:Newsnewsnews I have no doubt the above article will be translated as well in due course. https://twitter.com/kajakallas/status/1582038329578516480
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Oct 26, 2022 16:21
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KitConstantine posted:Newsnewsnews "Nuclear test" has a very specific, non-ambiguous meaning, and this was not a nuclear test. We have two treaties, one from 1963 and one from 1996, that both have "Nuclear Test Ban" right in the title (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Partial_Nuclear_Test_Ban_Treaty, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comprehensive_Nuclear-Test-Ban_Treaty). The only countries to have conducted nuclear tests since the comprehensive test ban (and they are not signatories) are India, Pakistan, and North Korea. Russia is a full signatory of the "Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty" and has not performed any recent nuclear tests full stop.
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Oct 26, 2022 16:34
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I'm surprised that soldiers could get genuinely radiation poisoned in the Chernobyl forest areas after such little exposure. It shouldn't be that bad any more.
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Oct 26, 2022 16:37
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Feliday Melody posted:I'm surprised that soldiers could get genuinely radiation poisoned in the Chernobyl forest areas after such little exposure. It shouldn't be that bad any more.
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Oct 26, 2022 16:44
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Feliday Melody posted:I'm surprised that soldiers could get genuinely radiation poisoned in the Chernobyl forest areas after such little exposure. It shouldn't be that bad any more. It's a Bad place to dig trenches in.
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Oct 26, 2022 16:45
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KitConstantine posted:French news documentary on how Russian POWs are held in Ukraine - untranslated but still interesting to watch regardless There's not much groundbreaking info in it, the quotes from the POWs are the most interesting part, one guy was captured in February after an ambush. They get two hours of Ukrainian television a day and the quoted POW basically says he's confused because the Russian authorities told him one thing, but the television shows him the opposite. Says he finds it all very unclear. Some guys lost legs due to mines, but the Ukrainians are giving them treatment for it. The red cross has visited the camp, but hadn't released an official statement on it. All in all I think the Russian POWs are getting a very fair treatment, compared to what Ukrainians captured by the Russians must be going through.
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Oct 26, 2022 16:46
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Feliday Melody posted:I'm surprised that soldiers could get genuinely radiation poisoned in the Chernobyl forest areas after such little exposure. It shouldn't be that bad any more. Digging in and ingesting dirt in the most contaminated areas probably increased their exposure by a lot. Also making food with wood for fires and water gathered in the area seems like it would be...bad Military focused stuff Map/position update stuff https://twitter.com/KyleJGlen/status/1585222226814865408?s=20&t=RkrMSZmwh8J867V849eztg From WarGonzo, may his foot be ever painful - tweet translation: ""... Ukrainian troops advanced in the Dzherelny area. Danger for the Russian army and from Stelmakhovka. There is the shortest distance to the R-66 highway." https://t.me/wargonzo/8903" I don't telegram at work so I don't know if there's more https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1585180622863347712?s=20&t=RkrMSZmwh8J867V849eztg https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1585189105201483777?s=20&t=RkrMSZmwh8J867V849eztg Real Girkin? Still gone-kin https://twitter.com/mr_gh0stly/status/1585225643297423361?s=20&t=1OTd7iNXPceKItsCMasAmg Complaints by Spetznaz - could probably translate the telegram posts linked in the tweet https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1585231324041707520?s=20&t=RkrMSZmwh8J867V849eztg Whole bunch of wrecked equipment - also from a Russian source https://twitter.com/AlexRaptor94/status/1585201700696395777?s=20&t=RkrMSZmwh8J867V849eztg Excerpts from the Washington Post article about the Wagner head and his talks with Putin from yesterday https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1584853494980579330?s=20&t=RkrMSZmwh8J867V849eztg   please fightSame article as posted earlier but I thought it was worth posting excerpts. It's an intense read - descriptions of torture, assault, life under occupation by Russian forces https://twitter.com/saitomri/status/1585231346129305601?s=20&t=RkrMSZmwh8J867V849eztg quote:... https://twitter.com/markito0171/status/1585287360186654721?s=20&t=1OTd7iNXPceKItsCMasAmg Sturdy  https://twitter.com/AlexRaptor94/status/1585171737003851776?s=20&t=RkrMSZmwh8J867V849eztg Bridges: no longer safe https://twitter.com/KyivPost/status/1585189769927340032?s=20&t=4MQ1IyxeGOWI_Rb-E4NOfQ Forgot this in the more news-y one, but still really cool. Poster is the head of the Ukrainian Railway Administration https://twitter.com/AKamyshin/status/1585173347025186818?s=20&t=RkrMSZmwh8J867V849eztg And a nice thing to close, as I like to do when I can https://twitter.com/NewVoiceUkraine/status/1585210928676876289?s=20&t=RkrMSZmwh8J867V849eztg KitConstantine fucked around with this message at 16:51 on Oct 26, 2022 |
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Oct 26, 2022 16:48
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FMguru posted:It's pretty safe, provided you don't dig around in the radioactive dirt and kick a bunch of radioactive dirt and dust into the air and breathe it for several weeks straight. Which is exactly what they did. I am a CBRN operator. I was under the impression that their stay was brief. And that the soldiers poisoned at the time was mostly overplayed in an attempt to escape the war. Certainly, breathing in the dust would increase exposure by around 30-fold. I thought they weren't there for very long.
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Oct 26, 2022 16:55
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Menschsein posted:Unfortunately I'm paywalled on the e-paper, but have the paper version (haven't had a chance to read it yet). The source is entirely legit, It's the only Estonian weekly doing investigative reporting. The same paper recently published a longform consisting of interviews with acting and former Baltic counterintelligence officers. It's been translated, I'm sure it popped up here as well. If you haven't read it, absolutely take the time and do. It's grim reading. Just read that article, and Jesus. Yeah, its grim but it sure stinks of uncomfortable truth. It'll be a hard pill for the West to swallow but I think we're going to have to if we expect this war to be anything but a first salvo in a long loving slog.
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Oct 26, 2022 16:59
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They dug trenches in the Red loving Forest. That area is hot as hell below the surface. The zone is safe as long as you don't picnic in the moss, but digging is still very ill-advised.
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Oct 26, 2022 17:04
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Feliday Melody posted:I'm surprised that soldiers could get genuinely radiation poisoned in the Chernobyl forest areas after such little exposure. It shouldn't be that bad any more. I think if you just wander through there on foot and stick to roads it's not so bad, but driving heavy vehicles offroad and digging fighting positions is likely to stir up some very unpleasant things.
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Oct 26, 2022 17:11
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Re: https://twitter.com/holger_r/status/1585194814680993792 Financial Times seems to have summarised the article FT summary posted:Russia’s nuclear rhetoric ‘requires full attention’, Estonia’s spy chief says
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Oct 26, 2022 17:57
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Antigravitas posted:They dug trenches in the Red loving Forest. That area is hot as hell below the surface. The zone is safe as long as you don't picnic in the moss, but digging is still very ill-advised. Yeah it was this, IIRC there were aerial photos of their positions and some pictures released as well. Just the absolute stupidity is baffling.
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Oct 26, 2022 18:37
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Yeah here we go: https://twitter.com/raging545/status/1511615423560749058 https://twitter.com/tpyxanews/status/1512067022129012742
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Oct 26, 2022 18:47
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spankmeister posted:Yeah here we go:  I was there on a tour last year and the red forest area is absolutely one of the spiciest, to the point where you don't want to hang around too long even just on the paved road. I don't know exactly how bad it would be to dig up dirt there and if it would be enough to get acute radiation poisoning but it's not pretty.
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Oct 26, 2022 18:54
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KitConstantine posted:Sturdy I'd be curious as to what exact vehicle that is. MRAPs are designed to fall apart like Legos, which absorbs the blast and protects the crew. That looks like a more conventional armored vehicle that I wouldn't have thought would be able to take a mine hit so we'll. That second video got me right in the feels. No translation needed
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Oct 26, 2022 19:12
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KitConstantine posted:Bridges: no longer safe Wonder what he means by this. Ukraine certainly doesn't control the Antonivskii bridge in the traditional sense, probably not the Nova Kakhovka dam either. They're both in long-range artillery range but they're not physically in control of each crossing made on the bridges.
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Oct 26, 2022 19:15
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Dirt5o8 posted:I'd be curious as to what exact vehicle that is. MRAPs are designed to fall apart like Legos, which absorbs the blast and protects the crew. That looks like a more conventional armored vehicle that I wouldn't have thought would be able to take a mine hit so we'll. As the tweet says, that’s a VAB. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/V%C3%A9hicule_de_l%27Avant_Blind%C3%A9 kemikalkadet posted:Wonder what he means by this. Ukraine certainly doesn't control the Antonivskii bridge in the traditional sense, probably not the Nova Kakhovka dam either. They're both in long-range artillery range but they're not physically in control of each crossing made on the bridges. That would be a normal turn of phrase for Ukrainian, to say that they control [what’s going on] the brides as they’ve trained artillery on them.
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Oct 26, 2022 19:15
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cinci zoo sniper posted:As the tweet says, that’s a VAB. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/V%C3%A9hicule_de_l%27Avant_Blind%C3%A9 Derp, thanks! Looks like it was recent upgrades that added mine protection to them.
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Oct 26, 2022 19:18
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https://mobile.twitter.com/mariamposts/status/1585291355424788480 A thread on some Russian stereotypes of Ukrainians; might be of interest to some people.
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Oct 26, 2022 19:23
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