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cinci zoo sniper
Mar 15, 2013




Nitrox posted:

Did anyone confirm the video posted earlier?

Which video?

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Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

Cicero posted:

The 'suicide' is obviously in comparison to drones that don't blow themselves up. But yeah at that point there's not a huge distinction between 'suicide drone' and 'slow missile'.

There's distinction between a loitering munition, a drone that spends time at an area looking for targets and eventually hit something, and a guided missile that is launched and keeps flying and can't spend time looking for better targets. Both 'suicide' but it's useful to distinguish if they can wait for targets or not.

Suicide drone is just technically misleading (especially if it evokes images of Japanese kamikaze weapons) and doesn't tell much about what it does.

AtomikKrab
Jul 17, 2010

Keep on GOP rolling rolling rolling rolling.

Nenonen posted:

There's distinction between a loitering munition, a drone that spends time at an area looking for targets and eventually hit something, and a guided missile that is launched and keeps flying and can't spend time looking for better targets. Both 'suicide' but it's useful to distinguish if they can wait for targets or not.

Suicide drone is just technically misleading (especially if it evokes images of Japanese kamikaze weapons) and doesn't tell much about what it does.

Suicide drone to me would be a drone platform that has munitions it fires off then when those are exhausted goes and rams something.

Herstory Begins Now
Aug 5, 2003
SOME REALLY TEDIOUS DUMB SHIT THAT SUCKS ASS TO READ ->>
it's just an issue of poor terminology where nothing clearer has been agreed upon/become the common way of referring to them. I suspect we'll end up referring to them as 'drone munitions' or something eventually because the drone firing munitions vs drone as the munition is ofc the core distinction. It's about to get a lot worse because we're going to have drones that launch drone submunitions soon enough.

Bremen
Jul 20, 2006

Our God..... is an awesome God

Nenonen posted:

There's distinction between a loitering munition, a drone that spends time at an area looking for targets and eventually hit something, and a guided missile that is launched and keeps flying and can't spend time looking for better targets. Both 'suicide' but it's useful to distinguish if they can wait for targets or not.

Suicide drone is just technically misleading (especially if it evokes images of Japanese kamikaze weapons) and doesn't tell much about what it does.

I think the point was "suicide" in the name makes a distinction between something like a loitering munition and a drone that flies off, launches its payload, and then comes back, like a Bayraktar or even those consumer drones they modified to drop grenades.

And maybe suicide isn't the best technical term for it but I can see the value in a distinction between a drone that blows itself up as part of its mission and one the doesn't.

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

Bremen posted:

And maybe suicide isn't the best technical term for it but I can see the value in a distinction between a drone that blows itself up as part of its mission and one the doesn't.

This has already been brought up. You can call it a loitering munition. Or you can can call it a guided missile.

Herstory Begins Now
Aug 5, 2003
SOME REALLY TEDIOUS DUMB SHIT THAT SUCKS ASS TO READ ->>
it's additionally confusing with the shahed drones because shahed means martyr in farsi

Sucrose
Dec 9, 2009
I hate the term “suicide X” because it gets confused with “suicide bomber” and the like. I don’t think anything should be called a suicide munition unless it involves someone driving up in a truck and blowing themselves up. Like, would you call driving a remote-operated car to a location and blowing it up to be a “suicide car bomb?” Of course not, because of how confusing that would be.

Owling Howl
Jul 17, 2019

Nenonen posted:

This has already been brought up. You can call it a loitering munition. Or you can can call it a guided missile.

Or killer robot :sun:

Discendo Vox
Mar 21, 2013

We don't need to have that dialogue because it's obvious, trivial, and has already been had a thousand times.
When you think about it, all bullets are murder-suicide bullets.

cinci zoo sniper
Mar 15, 2013




https://twitter.com/sssmirnov/status/1586322277490372608

Completely nuts story about general Lapin threatening with a pistol to summarily execute a mobilised lieutenant who pulled his company from artillery fire, to get him and his troops back to frontline.

Ynglaur
Oct 9, 2013

The Malta Conference, anyone?
News organizations use the term "suicide drone" because the word "suicide" generates more clicks and ad revenue. That's it. It's definitely an inaccurate term. Also, "unmanned, guided, long-range munitions" takes too many characters.

Even surface-based unmanned, guided, long-range munitions should give the world's navies pause. Let's say we get the cost of them down to ~$25,000 USD. You could get 7,200 of those for the price of one modern US destroyer. Assuming you can manage the electronic environment, imagine a swarm of 1,000 of those things attacking a carrier battle group (US or Chinese, take your pick). I'm not sure the CBG comes out ahead in that exchange.

I'm oversimplifying and there are lots of variables (electronic warfare, range, etc.), but this war will likely change every theatre other than (maybe) space at this rate.

Cicero
Dec 17, 2003

Jumpjet, melta, jumpjet. Repeat for ten minutes or until victory is assured.

quote:

Even surface-based unmanned, guided, long-range munitions should give the world's navies pause. Let's say we get the cost of them down to ~$25,000 USD. You could get 7,200 of those for the price of one modern US destroyer. Assuming you can manage the electronic environment, imagine a swarm of 1,000 of those things attacking a carrier battle group (US or Chinese, take your pick). I'm not sure the CBG comes out ahead in that exchange.
Clearly the solution is a swarm of somewhat larger and faster drones equipped with dual MP5's. Pew pew!

No but seriously, medium sized drones with even infantry caliber weapons seem like they would work? The drone missiles in question are slow and not particularly well-armored, right?

Flappy Bert
Dec 11, 2011

I have seen the light, and it is a string


Cicero posted:

Clearly the solution is a swarm of somewhat larger and faster drones equipped with dual MP5's. Pew pew!

No but seriously, medium sized drones with even infantry caliber weapons seem like they would work? The drone missiles in question are slow and not particularly well-armored, right?

Shahed 136, Wiki claims 115 mph max speed - so basically a long-range Cessna.

Nitrox
Jul 5, 2002

The one with spliced footage apparently from multiple drones, where one had someone trying to shoot one from a helicopter?

Senor Tron
May 26, 2006


Sucrose posted:

I hate the term “suicide X” because it gets confused with “suicide bomber” and the like. I don’t think anything should be called a suicide munition unless it involves someone driving up in a truck and blowing themselves up. Like, would you call driving a remote-operated car to a location and blowing it up to be a “suicide car bomb?” Of course not, because of how confusing that would be.

This. The imagery the name generates also helps with Russia trying to label them as terrorist acts.

Franks Happy Place
Mar 15, 2011

It is by weed alone I set my mind in motion. It is by the dank of Sapho that thoughts acquire speed, the lips acquire stains, stains become a warning. It is by weed alone I set my mind in motion.

I assume this one:

https://twitter.com/JamWaterhouse/status/1586358395933970433?t=FRa1XT2js5D-YRW2RkU8MQ&s=19

Owling Howl
Jul 17, 2019

Cicero posted:

Clearly the solution is a swarm of somewhat larger and faster drones equipped with dual MP5's. Pew pew!

No but seriously, medium sized drones with even infantry caliber weapons seem like they would work? The drone missiles in question are slow and not particularly well-armored, right?

https://twitter.com/TpyxaNews/status/1585279195038588929?t=Q79j2ju2RxAUtQZtN58BSg&s=19

Possibly bullshit. At any rate I feel like you'd want a system which can chase the Iranian drones down which these seem unlikely to be able to do.

Cicero
Dec 17, 2003

Jumpjet, melta, jumpjet. Repeat for ten minutes or until victory is assured.
/\/\/\ I was thinking more like a Bayraktar with a machine gun.

I assumed they had just not seen it coming in the dead of night or something; but instead they saw it coming and shot at it, and just missed?

fatherboxx
Mar 25, 2013

General Lapin being sacked is very good because the precedent of a military commander getting the boot based on whining of a convicted robber (Prigozhin) and a local warlord the likes of which most of the brass spend their early-mid career fighting (Kadyrov) is going to hit the morale of leadership. No chance of revolt, obviously, but officers not willing to fight 100% for someone who despises them is a good sign for Ukraine (and Russian people as well).

WarpedLichen
Aug 14, 2008


Owling Howl posted:

https://twitter.com/TpyxaNews/status/1585279195038588929?t=Q79j2ju2RxAUtQZtN58BSg&s=19

Possibly bullshit. At any rate I feel like you'd want a system which can chase the Iranian drones down which these seem unlikely to be able to do.

I would bet money that the picture is bullshit.

https://www.smart-shooter.com/products/

The implication is that Ukranians got the SMASH Dragon system, which is some sort of automated aiming device that completed live firing tests in January. The drone pictured is probably some engineering setup they used to get through their internal trials and used for press releases. Maybe some RnD outfit got a couple demo units to make the press release technically true (which looks to be small automated gimbal you can put whatever weapon you want on) but I highly doubt there's operational units being deployed in Ukraine anytime soon.

Herstory Begins Now
Aug 5, 2003
SOME REALLY TEDIOUS DUMB SHIT THAT SUCKS ASS TO READ ->>
Haven't seen anything public about what precisely is blowing up, but there's been major Israeli air strikes in or around Damascus several times in the last week.

At least one blew up an IRGC warehouse.
https://twitter.com/QalaatM/status/1586292989525360640

(strikes on 22, 24, 27th, possibly more)

fatherboxx posted:

General Lapin being sacked is very good because the precedent of a military commander getting the boot based on whining of a convicted robber (Prigozhin) and a local warlord the likes of which most of the brass spend their early-mid career fighting (Kadyrov) is going to hit the morale of leadership. No chance of revolt, obviously, but officers not willing to fight 100% for someone who despises them is a good sign for Ukraine (and Russian people as well).

Amazing that a general can lose his job because of telegram drama, basically.

Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 09:27 on Oct 30, 2022

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

Owling Howl posted:

Or killer robot :sun:

How Swedish.

https://sv.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robot_(vapen)

Cable Guy
Jul 18, 2005

I don't expect any trouble, but we'll be handing these out later...




Slippery Tilde

Nitrox posted:

Did anyone confirm the video posted earlier?
https://twitter.com/GeoConfirmed/status/1586460379697348608

Thread reader link...
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1586460379697348608.html

It goes through each of the videos (those posted till time of the thread anyway)

SolarFire2
Oct 16, 2001

"You're awefully cute, but unfortunately for you, you're made of meat." - Meat And Sarcasm Guy!

Franks Happy Place posted:

I assume this one:

I love the dudes abandoning ship at 0:44.

SolarFire2 fucked around with this message at 12:27 on Oct 30, 2022

steinrokkan
Apr 2, 2011



Soiled Meat
I love how the combined firepower of the Sevastopol naval base can't bring down a motorized canoe

Gravitas Shortfall
Jul 17, 2007

Utility is seven-eighths Proximity.


steinrokkan posted:

I love how the combined firepower of the Sevastopol naval base can't bring down a motorized canoe
It's an interesting echo of Millennium Challenge 2002, maybe lessons were learned.

Wikipedia posted:

"Soon after the cruise missile offensive, another significant portion of Blue's navy was "sunk" by an armada of small Red boats, which carried out both conventional and suicide attacks that capitalized on Blue's inability to detect them as well as expected."

sean10mm
Jun 29, 2005

It's a Mad, Mad, Mad, MAD-2R World

Gravitas Shortfall posted:

It's an interesting echo of Millennium Challenge 2002, maybe lessons were learned.

Probably not from that exercise, where the scrappy little underdog actually won because the simulation glitched and teleported the enemy on top of the US Navy after turning the Navy's defensive systems off.

steinrokkan
Apr 2, 2011



Soiled Meat

Gravitas Shortfall posted:

It's an interesting echo of Millennium Challenge 2002, maybe lessons were learned.

Yeah, except that's an old and tired lie that originated due to interpersonal rivalries in the military and later was latched onto and propagandized as part of the war on "decadent and weak west" waged by, among others, Russian agents.

So pls don't spread it.

Gravitas Shortfall
Jul 17, 2007

Utility is seven-eighths Proximity.


steinrokkan posted:

Yeah, except that's an old and tired lie that originated due to interpersonal rivalries in the military and later was latched onto and propagandized as part of the war on "decadent and weak west" waged by, among others, Russian agents.

So pls don't spread it.

Oh yeah for sure, there's a lot of bullshit around that (especially the "motorcycle couriers") I just find it interesting that someone found a way to make "tiny boat swarm attack" actually work in the real world.

Tafferling
Oct 22, 2008

DOOT DOOT
ALL ABOARD THE ISS POLOKONZERVA

Gravitas Shortfall posted:

Oh yeah for sure, there's a lot of bullshit around that (especially the "motorcycle couriers") I just find it interesting that someone found a way to make "tiny boat swarm attack" actually work in the real world.

I think the main point is that swarm attacks work if there isn't anyone actually driving the stuff that is very much expected to blow up horribly.
Also, they can drive straight through waves at a speed that would give serious concussions at a meat based being.

Herstory Begins Now
Aug 5, 2003
SOME REALLY TEDIOUS DUMB SHIT THAT SUCKS ASS TO READ ->>

Gravitas Shortfall posted:

Oh yeah for sure, there's a lot of bullshit around that (especially the "motorcycle couriers") I just find it interesting that someone found a way to make "tiny boat swarm attack" actually work in the real world.

It's been working for over a century.

Warbadger
Jun 17, 2006

Gravitas Shortfall posted:

Oh yeah for sure, there's a lot of bullshit around that (especially the "motorcycle couriers") I just find it interesting that someone found a way to make "tiny boat swarm attack" actually work in the real world.

This doesn't appear to have been more than handful of drone boats verified in this attack. Certainly nothing approaching the fleet of little speedboats with bigass radar guided anti-shipping missiles glued to them, communicating via flashing lights/telepaths that Van Riper dreamed up. I'm not sure how much of a "swarm" was being used here as opposed to a few pretty stealthy little boats.

It worked likely because these things would be hard as hell to spot in the dark with sensors or eyeballs. The one that is under fire from the Mi-17 doorgunner (and eventually probably 30mm cannon) until footage cuts out got caught near the shore after sunrise, in easy viewing distance from the shore (or air). There's cellphone footage from some rando on shore of that one being attacked and exploding, and it sticks out against the sea pretty badly in daylight. Big bang when it went up, though, so the ships that got hit are gonna be in pretty bad shape.

Warbadger fucked around with this message at 15:08 on Oct 30, 2022

saratoga
Mar 5, 2001
This is a Randbrick post. It goes in that D&D megathread on page 294

"i think obama was mediocre in that debate, but hillary was fucking terrible. also russert is filth."

-randbrick, 12/26/08

Herstory Begins Now posted:

It's been working for over a century.


Yeah "quietly fire a bunch of suicide boats torpedoes from far out and hope no one notices in time to react" was like half of Japan's naval engagements in WW2. Adding a video camera and better aiming to the torpedoes probably makes it even more effective, especially against a second rate navy.

FishBulbia
Dec 22, 2021

https://twitter.com/leifnixon/status/1586667585201967105

Hieronymous Alloy
Jan 30, 2009


Why! Why!! Why must you refuse to accept that Dr. Hieronymous Alloy's Genetically Enhanced Cream Corn Is Superior to the Leading Brand on the Market!?!




Morbid Hound
Yeah do we know if the boat attack actually did anything?

Owling Howl
Jul 17, 2019

Hieronymous Alloy posted:

Yeah do we know if the boat attack actually did anything?

No. It ranges from random Twitter accounts proclaiming multiple ships sunk to the Russian MOD saying there's minor damage to one minesweeper.

cinci zoo sniper
Mar 15, 2013




October 29-30 round-up

Other summaries:

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-29
https://zona.media/chronicle/248
https://zona.media/chronicle/249
https://notes.citeam.org/dispatch-oct-28-29
https://notes.citeam.org/mobi-oct-28-29

Maps:




https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1586394348299878400.html
https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1586394348299878400

UAF struck RuAF forces in Sevastopol' harbour, seemingly using 6+ drones to hit 3+ vessels. Fantastic deep dive from GeoConfirmed.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1586460379697348608.html
https://twitter.com/GeoConfirmed/status/1586460379697348608
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1586487886542766081

SBU claims that the strike has damaged at least 3 ships capable of firing Kalibr cruise missiles.
https://censor.net/ru/news/3377005/vzryvy_v_sevastopole_povredili_po_mensheyi_mere_tri_rossiyiskih_korablyanositelya_kalibrov_istochniki

A naval corridor for Ukrainian grain shipments has been shuttered by Russia, the announcement following the attack on Sevastopol' harbour.

https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1586400237492572166
https://twitter.com/PetroBurkovskyi/status/1586390559471546368
https://twitter.com/evghenia_v/status/1586644562302337024
https://zona.media/chronicle/249#50769 ← the corridor is already de facto closed

New pieces on sanctions avoidance measures taken by Russian government. FT writes about grain laundering, and Bloomberg about salvaging consumer electronics.

https://twitter.com/adam_tooze/status/1586675804112654338
https://twitter.com/maria_shagina/status/1586656236258344960

Investigation into one of the crews behind long-range strikes at Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/bellingcat/status/1586342205945520129
https://twitter.com/bellingcat/status/1586342428847415297

Miscellaneous tweets:

https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1586385533995208705
https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1586421558909800451
https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1586682049661964288
https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1586652651885821953
https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1586455283471380480
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1586519473871360000
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1586478646184726528
https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1586381242907627520
https://twitter.com/IuliiaMendel/status/1586678613444886529
https://twitter.com/NikaMelkozerova/status/1586411480274317313
https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1586712436291375104
https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1586609838464897026
https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1586470429434253312

Short look at a facet of the civilian side of the war.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1586609447673417729.html
https://twitter.com/lapatina_/status/1586609539142807553

Lapin seems to be plugging into the clout shark war in Russian military circles with... Lapin Line?
https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1586616483295141890

He also may or may not be relieved of duty – reports conflicting as yet.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1586350383370117120.html
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1586354004300554242

Wagonzo says that there's a “difficult situation” in Pishchane (P66 Svatove-Kreminna highway).
https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1586625912031924224

War on the Rocks is going to get at least one juicy episode.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1586367861173485569.html
https://twitter.com/EvansRyan202/status/1586367863744778246

Cool thread if you're curious about goings-on in the media environment. There are fairly good third-party replies to be read here as well.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1586623916709134336.html
https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1586623916709134336

English translation for Lapin's “Hollywood commissar” episodes:
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1586488705745047552.html
https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1586488705745047552

Follow up on the Russian spy in Norway, who paraded as a Brazilian.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1585988275814428672.html
https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1585988275814428672

Summary of the story so far with the Su-30 crash in Irkutsk.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1586409989425532929.html
https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1586409898538979328

Thoughtful thread.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1586429989746257923.html
https://twitter.com/ABarbashin/status/1586429989746257923

Articles I'm too lazy to look up tweets for:

Russia has accused UK of blowing up NordStream
https://www.euractiv.com/section/global-europe/news/russia-says-uk-navy-blew-up-nord-stream-london-denies-involvement/

New survey by Razumkov Centre (no written announcement yet on their website). Key takeaways – 71% of Ukrainians are ready to defend their country. Regional support ranges from 54% in the east to 79% in the south. Other splits: 74% vs 62% on UA/RU primary language, 81% vs 63% on men/women, 78% vs 53% on younger/older than 60. Confidence interval (w/o DEFF) of 2.3%.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-X1Yr7ZRoAg

Russia did block t.me Telegram short link service for a whole hour last night.
https://zona.media/news/2022/10/30/rkn-fail

Russia is “ready to talk to the West”.
https://t.me/rian_ru/183836

An older article with diaries of green Ukrainian soldier.
https://www.economist.com/1843/2022/10/06/learn-to-kill-from-a-safe-distance-and-write-a-will-the-secret-diary-of-a-ukrainian-soldier-part-1

Automatic Slim
Jul 1, 2007

Apparently, Russia has absconded with Grigory Potemkin's bones. The were interred in Kherson.
edit: 3:10

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E6pp2Xpg5sM&t=190s

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cinci zoo sniper
Mar 15, 2013




Automatic Slim posted:

Apparently, Russia has absconded with Grigory Potemkin's bones. The were interred in Kherson.
edit: 3:10

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E6pp2Xpg5sM&t=190s

Ash, but yeah.

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