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Hieronymous Alloy posted:Yeah do we know if the boat attack actually did anything? Not really. Based off the footage the Ukrainians definitely rammed some ships with some drone boats, but there's no confirmation of damage. Maybe they were duds. Maybe the ships sank. Nobody knows yet. The one they shot up with a helicopter and cannon fire on cell footage made a pretty huge boom, so *if* the ones ramming boats had similar payloads and *if* that payload went off right next to those ships when the camera footage cuts out there's pretty good odds those ships are seriously damaged.
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Oct 30, 2022 19:30
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Warbadger posted:The one they shot up with a helicopter and cannon fire on cell footage made a pretty huge boom, so *if* the ones ramming boats had similar payloads and *if* that payload went off right next to those ships when the camera footage cuts out there's pretty good odds those ships are seriously damaged. When the Moskva was hit there were various leaks fairly soon indicating that it's been seriously damaged. Nothing like that has apparently come out this time, one possible reason for that is that no serious damage was done. I mean, the Russian side seems to leak like a sieve when it comes to opsec so my guess (note: just a guess) is that nothing coming out of there means nothing much happened
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Oct 30, 2022 19:55
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jaete posted:When the Moskva was hit there were various leaks fairly soon indicating that it's been seriously damaged. Nothing like that has apparently come out this time, one possible reason for that is that no serious damage was done. I mean, the Russian side seems to leak like a sieve when it comes to opsec so my guess (note: just a guess) is that nothing coming out of there means nothing much happened Even if the attack didn't inflict any significant damage, which seems possible but I'm not certain yet, then it might be a bit of a moral win for Ukraine. The Russian public will know their fleet got attacked in port, and the crews of the ships will know Ukraine is capable of that sort of strike and thus might be reluctant to do something like try to reestablish a blockade. As for what Ukraine lost, they were a bunch of drones provided as an armaments package, and the US probably thinks giving away those drones for solid information on how they perform in a hot combat scenario is a decent trade.
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Oct 30, 2022 20:03
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Follow up on the Russian spy in Norway, who paraded as a Brazilian. Mikhail Mikhushin sounds...familiar. Like, didn't this guy disappear in 2017 because of his connection to Trump? Or was it an Alex Jones connection?
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Oct 30, 2022 20:13
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jaete posted:When the Moskva was hit there were various leaks fairly soon indicating that it's been seriously damaged. Nothing like that has apparently come out this time, one possible reason for that is that no serious damage was done. I mean, the Russian side seems to leak like a sieve when it comes to opsec so my guess (note: just a guess) is that nothing coming out of there means nothing much happened Yeah, it's hard to hide the sinking of your flagship. This doesn't mean that no damage was done - for all we know, Makarov might be inoperable for months. For comparison, the bombing of USS Cole killed 17 and injured 39 sailors, ripped a 12 meter hole in the side and it took 14 months to repair her. This involved approximately 180 to 320 kilograms of C4. Depends on the payload and distance at time of detonation, but it probably caused some bending of sides. I think it's likely that there was leaking, but even if not it takes a long time to repair and the ship can't be considered fully seaworthy until that is done.
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Oct 30, 2022 20:18
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:Yeah do we know if the boat attack actually did anything? The footage that cuts off just as one boat rams a frigate would very much imply substantial damage, at least assuming that there is enough explosives on it, and that the detonator worked. Immediately after there were reports and pictures of tall pillars of black smoke, which would also imply that something with a lot of flammable stuff was hit, but we don't know what that was. Afterwards Russia clamped down hard, including turning off several public webcams facing towards the harbor, that have for some reason been online for the entire war so far. I would assume this means that something embarrassing to them happened, and that they don't want us to see it. I don't think the amount of explosives you can fit into a canoe being driven by a jet ski motor with enough fuel to cross over to Sevastopol should be enough to sink a frigate, assuming competent damage control. But it's the Russian Navy so lol.
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Oct 30, 2022 21:47
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Well, for reference, in the USS Cole bombing the attackers also used a small fiberglass boat loaded with explosives, though the charge it carried was definitely substantially larger at 200-300 kilos of explosives. In achieving pretty much the best case scenario, it killed 17 people and caused the sip to be out of service for the next year. So theoretically the Ukrainian attacks could have done some damage, but given the much smaller scale of the drones, most likely not enough to sink or even cripple any substantial target. E:FB, of course
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Oct 30, 2022 21:58
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Tuna-Fish posted:I don't think the amount of explosives you can fit into a canoe being driven by a jet ski motor with enough fuel to cross over to Sevastopol should be enough to sink a frigate, assuming competent damage control. But it's the Russian Navy so lol. Competent damage control requires regular training and organization, neither of which the hollowed out mess that is the Russian Navy has in any significant quantity.
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Oct 30, 2022 22:09
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I suppose Maxar or someone else will release satellite imagery of the ships in due time.
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Oct 30, 2022 22:11
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steinrokkan posted:Well, for reference, in the USS Cole bombing the attackers also used a small fiberglass boat loaded with explosives, though the charge it carried was definitely substantially larger at 200-300 kilos of explosives. In achieving pretty much the best case scenario, it killed 17 people and caused the sip to be out of service for the next year. So theoretically the Ukrainian attacks could have done some damage, but given the much smaller scale of the drones, most likely not enough to sink or even cripple any substantial target. Seems to me that these things can carry that much weight? The main image floating around makes them look a lot smaller than they are when you see other angles. It could also be possible since these came from the US (I think?) that the explosives they carry are pound for pound more explodey than the c4 used in the Cole bombing or could be setup to direct the explosion and thus require less boom boom, but I'm not an expert on any of this stuff.
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Oct 30, 2022 22:17
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It doesn't matter how badly damaged the ships are or not, so much as that the attack happened despite the safety of their home port. It'll be a brave captain that takes them out to enforce a naval blockade from this point on.
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Oct 30, 2022 22:48
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Endjinneer posted:It doesn't matter how badly damaged the ships are or not, so much as that the attack happened despite the safety of their home port. It'll be a brave captain that takes them out to enforce a naval blockade from this point on. Yea, getting attacked in your home port feels like a pretty big deal. That means that something hostile is potentially hunting you the literal second you pull away from the dock (if not before), instead of being days away and only if you’re close to shore (thinking of Neptun in particular here).
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Oct 30, 2022 22:54
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Endjinneer posted:It doesn't matter how badly damaged the ships are or not, so much as that the attack happened despite the safety of their home port. It'll be a brave captain that takes them out to enforce a naval blockade from this point on. Or a captain with a gun held to his head by a superior officer, apparently a new Russian military leadership technique.
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Oct 30, 2022 23:03
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I think theyve tried that before actually
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Oct 30, 2022 23:06
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Endjinneer posted:It doesn't matter how badly damaged the ships are or not, so much as that the attack happened despite the safety of their home port. It'll be a brave captain that takes them out to enforce a naval blockade from this point on. It also doesn't matter if Russians never leave port again. Grain ships will not cross Black Sea if there is no agreement on their safety because no insurance company will accept the risk.
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Oct 30, 2022 23:19
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Flavahbeast posted:I think theyve tried that before actually On the Black Sea, even.
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Oct 30, 2022 23:21
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WarpedLichen posted:Wouldn't be surprised at this point, not sure why Russia has the British are being picked as the shadowy masterminds behind all this, but it is a refreshing throw back from the usual suspects. They did blame the US first, but I guess that didn't catch on, so they decided to move to the next scapegoat on the list. Although I've noticed the UK seems to personally annoy Russia a lot, which British analyst Michael Clarke recently pointed out. His take was that the UK is basically a "whipping boy" stand-in for the US, because Russia feels like there are fewer consequences for being a dick to the UK than the US.
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Oct 30, 2022 23:22
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Seems people in Russia are starting to get sick of the war. https://mobile.twitter.com/BBCSteveR/status/1586333785259671553
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Oct 30, 2022 23:34
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Wildeyes posted:They did blame the US first, but I guess that didn't catch on, so they decided to move to the next scapegoat on the list. Well Russia has sent a bunch of assassins into the UK in theast few years with little to no consequence. (Including the installation of a person linked to the KGB in the House of Lords happening in this time. Thanks BoJo.) So of course they'd target the UK to blame.
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Oct 30, 2022 23:37
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steinrokkan posted:Well, for reference, in the USS Cole bombing the attackers also used a small fiberglass boat loaded with explosives, though the charge it carried was definitely substantially larger at 200-300 kilos of explosives. In achieving pretty much the best case scenario, it killed 17 people and caused the sip to be out of service for the next year. So theoretically the Ukrainian attacks could have done some damage, but given the much smaller scale of the drones, most likely not enough to sink or even cripple any substantial target. USS Cole drat near sank at its berth actually. It was only pretty exceptional damage control and leadership that saved the ship. My expectation is that damage control on USN vessels is literal orders of magnitude better than that on Russian naval vessels. I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if we haven’t seen the Makarov since the explosion because it’s now on patrol with Moskva on the bottom of the Black Sea.
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Oct 30, 2022 23:39
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Vox Nihili posted:Seems people in Russia are starting to get sick of the war. Must be the infamous 'getting tired of winning so much' effect.
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Oct 31, 2022 00:12
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ZombieLenin posted:USS Cole drat near sank at its berth actually. It was only pretty exceptional damage control and leadership that saved the ship. They train on that. One of my Academy professors used to run the simulator. It’s not loving around.
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Oct 31, 2022 00:33
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Bar Ran Dun posted:They train on that. One of my Academy professors used to run the simulator. It’s not loving around. Goddamn. Being in an org where they Do Not Learn from Past Mistakes(tm) reading this is basically catnip. That’s rad and a hallmark of competent process so far as I’m concerned
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Oct 31, 2022 00:43
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https://twitter.com/RichardGowan1/status/1586727761024000000?s=20&t=NZ6WrkfxXY11pBrKrHGQgA Some good observations and further links on the grain deal cancellation.
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Oct 31, 2022 01:04
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ZombieLenin posted:My expectation is that damage control on USN vessels is literal orders of magnitude better than that on Russian naval vessels. My present understanding of it is that damage control on USN vessels (when not beset by extreme staff overextension issues, etc) is orders of magnitude better than the standard performance of an average national navy, which is itself guaranteed to be orders of magnitude better than the damage control of Russian vessels. The picture of the Moskva's operation prior to its destruction was phenomenally grim all around. Fire control equipment locked up to prevent theft, few of the advertised missile advertised systems operational, wedged open watertight doors, the detection system interfered with communication so it would have to be turned off for the ship to talk to anyone, most of the engines past their service date by over 10k hours and you could only run them with express permission of the admiral, otherwise the ship was crawling along at a fraction of its intended max speed, the generators were seemingly operating at random, indicator lights to the bridge were entirely hypothetical operations, and there were cooling issues and weird leaky circulation throughout. There was just an explosion, then the best that could happen is that a runner could be sent to the bridge to inform on that they seem to have exploded.
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Oct 31, 2022 01:11
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ZombieLenin posted:USS Cole drat near sank at its berth actually. It was only pretty exceptional damage control and leadership that saved the ship. One really neat bit of WW2 historical errata is how the cruiser Raleigh survived the attack on Pearl Harbor. http://www.navsource.org/archives/04/007/0400712.jpg http://www.navsource.org/archives/04/007/0400717.jpg https://www.history.navy.mil/resear...ion-report.html It got absolutely blasted because it was in an aircraft carrier berth, but all the munitions that hit it were armed to sink an aircraft carrier so they went *through* instead. Ship ended up extremely perforated but barely blown up at all. So they basically tied it to the dock on one side and to a barge on the other and it didn't sink.
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Oct 31, 2022 01:21
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It's worth reading No Higher Honor by Bradley Peniston. It's about the Samuel B Roberts and the mine strike that nearly sank it.quote:The mine blew a 15-foot (4.6 m) hole in the hull, flooded the engine room, and knocked the two gas turbine from their mounts. The USN sucks at a lot of stuff, but not DC.
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Oct 31, 2022 02:37
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I think it also needs to be understood how terrifying damage control is on a ship. Water floods spaces and reduces stability by both free surfaces or worse free communication effects. Firefighting is done with thinking like Halon or inerting gases like CO2. Or with water which again causes stability issues. Holes under the water line are at pressures that vary by depth. And if you list too far and the sea chests aren’t submerged anymore everything just stops working in the plant.
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Oct 31, 2022 03:19
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Posters interested in naval damage control may wish to read some posts by former USS Fitzgerald DCA The Valley Stared. Here's a good place to start: https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3803602&pagenumber=25&perpage=40&#post473505233
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Oct 31, 2022 03:30
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It'll be interesting to see how Russia handles this https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1586873197592514562?t=lQYf--zaUpZc96XH0RMBvQ&s=19 https://twitter.com/TRTWorldNow/status/1586823215082770432?t=2orhZbNndZaGM4HNkP5Amg&s=19 They were already interfering with shipments by holding up ships for excessive "inspections" https://twitter.com/Andy_Scollick/status/1586388851542528001?t=xCPmjD51TapAp8WTfQ-vtg&s=19 https://twitter.com/DailySabah/status/1584582996694159367?t=T5oTVJEDz6bppyrrpkq3sQ&s=19 the Russian government may in fact have owned themselves again by withdrawing as they now may no longer have the right to inspect at all I just like this cat https://twitter.com/maria_avdv/status/1586834722705088520?t=Gm2MgDMj3UEH5Y_0Hrc3Kw&s=19
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Oct 31, 2022 03:46
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"Russia unable to evict cat from Kherson Oblast."
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Oct 31, 2022 03:53
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It is normal for grain loading vessels to be inspected at anchor for cleanliness and stability. It’s part of SOLAS and also written into the contracts. The Russians sticking their noses into it is abnormal as is all the “inspections” they had been doing to vessels calling Ukraine for a long time before the war.
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Oct 31, 2022 04:30
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sharkytm posted:It's worth reading No Higher Honor by Bradley Peniston. It's about the Samuel B Roberts and the mine strike that nearly sank it. Note that this isn't a universal truth across all time. Instituional knowledge and memory is a thing and it can be lost if there isn't a lot of work put into maintaining it - the USN is only going to be good at damage control as long as it continues putting in the work to try and keep it that way (which the Forrestal fire worked to kick asses and convince leadership to take damage control seriously again). Relevantly to the current situation, the Red Army was an incredibly sophisticated and formidable institution by the end of World War 2 so it's not like Russians are always and have always been incompetent at war - the issue was that there wasn't enough effort put into maintaining and updating their institutional knowledge. They've forgotten a lot of what they once knew, and some of what they once knew is starting to get obsolete anyways.
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Oct 31, 2022 05:05
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Wildeyes posted:Although I've noticed the UK seems to personally annoy Russia a lot, which British analyst Michael Clarke recently pointed out. His take was that the UK is basically a "whipping boy" stand-in for the US, because Russia feels like there are fewer consequences for being a dick to the UK than the US.
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Oct 31, 2022 07:50
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Payndz posted:The Great Game never ended (for either side). Well the UK is actively demolishing its own economy to prove it's a Big Boy country that can go it alone while Russia is actively denolishing its army and economy to prove its still an empire. The Great Game did, in fact, end for them but they still need to work through some issues before they accept it.
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Oct 31, 2022 08:18
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While I understand Russia blaming every failure of theirs on NATO and its members instead of Ukraine, but how likely or able are some of these Sea/Air unmanned vehicles actually being operated by someone outside of Ukraine? We know it can be done from half way around they world with US and its Predator operators and at this point since Ukraine has been supplied with so much Western equipment there will not be any smoking gun for Russia to take pictures of and say so and so is directly responsible. Is Russia or anyone else for that matter able to figure out from where drones are being operated from?
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Oct 31, 2022 09:29
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Dick Ripple posted:While I understand Russia blaming every failure of theirs on NATO and its members instead of Ukraine, but how likely or able are some of these Sea/Air unmanned vehicles actually being operated by someone outside of Ukraine? We know it can be done from half way around they world with US and its Predator operators and at this point since Ukraine has been supplied with so much Western equipment there will not be any smoking gun for Russia to take pictures of and say so and so is directly responsible. Is Russia or anyone else for that matter able to figure out from where drones are being operated from? There's the risk of these drone pilots posting all over their unsecured discords about how much Russian stuff they blew up and how cool it was.
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Oct 31, 2022 09:40
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Dick Ripple posted:While I understand Russia blaming every failure of theirs on NATO and its members instead of Ukraine, but how likely or able are some of these Sea/Air unmanned vehicles actually being operated by someone outside of Ukraine? We know it can be done from half way around they world with US and its Predator operators and at this point since Ukraine has been supplied with so much Western equipment there will not be any smoking gun for Russia to take pictures of and say so and so is directly responsible. Is Russia or anyone else for that matter able to figure out from where drones are being operated from? I'm not sure why you'd need to. These sorts of operations will be easiest to perform locally and obviously it's better politically. Theoretically you could have a local team that sets up and deploys the drones then hands control over to someone on the other side of the planet to pilot but it seems worse in every way.
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Oct 31, 2022 09:45
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Owling Howl posted:Well the UK is actively demolishing its own economy to prove it's a Big Boy country that can go it alone while Russia is actively denolishing its army and economy to prove its still an empire. The Great Game did, in fact, end for them but they still need to work through some issues before they accept it. The Great Game is still happening but it has increasingly become a spectacle of pathos and regret, like octogenarians fist fighting.
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Oct 31, 2022 09:47
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Vox Nihili posted:The Great Game is still happening but it has increasingly become a spectacle of pathos and regret, like octogenarians fist fighting. It honestly surprises me how much the UK is supporting Ukraine, given how thoroughly corrupt and rife with Russian money the Tories are.
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Oct 31, 2022 10:05
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