|
Gravitas Shortfall posted:It honestly surprises me how much the UK is supporting Ukraine, given how thoroughly corrupt and rife with Russian money the Tories are. On the one hand yes it is surprising, on the other, these people have absolutely no shame in pretending to be best friends with the guy at the bar buying drinks, but as soon as the wallet runs dry they will turn their backs and go back to their own private cliques.
|
#
?
Oct 31, 2022 10:12
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 24, 2024 15:21 |
|
|
Probably shouldn't have murdered people with nerve agents on british soil.
|
|
#
?
Oct 31, 2022 10:20
|
|
|
UK: 1. Has a political culture of liking “conviction politics”. Often this is bad! (cf. Thatcher, Margaret; Blair, Anthony; Truss, Elizabeth). But occasionally it is not. 2. Has a popular cultural belief that fighting and winning is good and a legitimate way to get what you want. Again, often bad (gestures wildly at the large parts of the planet that got colonised violently off the back of this belief). 3. Has been aligned against Russia for a looong time. 4. Has in recent memory has Russians use chemical weapons in an assassination on its soil, killing its citizens as collateral damage. 5. Has local elites who resent wealthy Russians owning high end property in London.
|
|
#
?
Oct 31, 2022 10:20
|
|
|
yeah exactly^ Worth noting that on a natsec level Russia never stopped being an adversary even if things ostensibly warmed outwardly a little bit in the late 2000s and early 2010s. I'd also add that the last decade of Russian medling via influence efforts and troll farms and everything else has caused a lot of problems and pretty much no one who has to deal with it is happy about it. Russia has planted the seeds of an incredible amount of ill-will in much of Europe.
|
|
#
?
Oct 31, 2022 10:26
|
|
|
Hannibal Rex posted:https://twitter.com/RichardGowan1/status/1586727761024000000?s=20&t=NZ6WrkfxXY11pBrKrHGQgA
|
|
#
?
Oct 31, 2022 10:35
|
|
|
Winter wheat is the most common (95% in normal times), and that's harvested in July/Augustus normally. Here's an article from late july about harvested grains piling up in Ukraine: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/28/business/ukraine-grain-harvest-piles.html
|
|
#
?
Oct 31, 2022 11:25
|
|
|
Samopsa posted:Winter wheat is the most common (95% in normal times), and that's harvested in July/Augustus normally. Here's an article from late july about harvested grains piling up in Ukraine: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/28/business/ukraine-grain-harvest-piles.html Why is it called Winter Wheat if it is harvested in the summer?
|
|
#
?
Oct 31, 2022 11:42
|
|
|
Charlz Guybon posted:Why is it called Winter Wheat if it is harvested in the summer? It's planted in autumn and then harvested in spring/early summer. As opposed to being planted in spring and harvested in autumn.
|
|
#
?
Oct 31, 2022 11:44
|
|
|
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1586996489150152704 Ukraine is getting close to a 90% intercept rate for these missile strikes. As more anti-air arrives and low stocks cause the strikes to shrink it looks like they could reach 100%.
|
|
#
?
Oct 31, 2022 11:50
|
|
|
Chalks posted:https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1586996489150152704 How many cruise missiles can Russia have left?
|
|
#
?
Oct 31, 2022 11:50
|
|
|
Gravitas Shortfall posted:It honestly surprises me how much the UK is supporting Ukraine, given how thoroughly corrupt and rife with Russian money the Tories are.
|
|
#
?
Oct 31, 2022 12:03
|
|
|
Charlz Guybon posted:How many cruise missiles can Russia have left? It's not like either their pre-war stocks or current production capacity are public knowledge, so your guess is as good as anyone's.
|
|
#
?
Oct 31, 2022 12:08
|
|
|
Chalks posted:https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1586996489150152704 Infrastructure still suffers a lot of damage from drones and missiles of other types, and in Kyiv oblast' things are pretty dire right now. Just downing cruise missiles is not sustainable, Ukraine needs help with the rest of it, too.
|
|
#
?
Oct 31, 2022 12:16
|
|
|
Estimates I've read - many posted in this thread - say Russia still has thousands of long range missiles. They haven't run out, though they've likely already used the majority of their stockpiles - especially of the more advanced missiles. Personally I don't expect them to let up. They'll push until the cupboard is bare; I believe it is just the psychology of Putin and his fellow travelers that they believe they have a stronger will, and that their willingness to throw away their entire military if necessary will carry them through this conflict with the decadent West. It's not like any of them actually believe NATO is a threat to them, or to Russia; it's far more important to secure a win in the short term. TheDeadlyShoe fucked around with this message at 12:24 on Oct 31, 2022 |
|
#
?
Oct 31, 2022 12:21
|
|
|
What would it take to stop the cruise missiles from being launched to begin with? Just how far away are these strategic bombers firing them?
|
|
#
?
Oct 31, 2022 12:39
|
|
|
I don't know the specifics or how much is launched from where but a lot of reports I read mentioned that some cruise missiles are being launched from the Caspian sea
|
|
#
?
Oct 31, 2022 12:45
|
|
|
Russias more advanced air launched cruise missiles have thousand km+ range
|
|
#
?
Oct 31, 2022 12:46
|
|
|
TheDeadlyShoe posted:Estimates I've read - many posted in this thread - say Russia still has thousands of long range missiles. They haven't run out, though they've likely already used the majority of their stockpiles - especially of the more advanced missiles. They can't really afford to to spend them that recklessly, because 1) with sanctions in place they are barely replacable; 2) there always needs to be a reserve for a clancychat scenario - it is not total war so Russia can't commit everything it has to this and leave its reserve units bare.
|
|
#
?
Oct 31, 2022 12:48
|
|
|
fatherboxx posted:2) there always needs to be a reserve for a clancychat scenario - it is not total war so Russia can't commit everything it has to this and leave its reserve units bare. Russia really doesn't have a reserve for a clancy scenario. Kaliningrad is empty, the elite formations tasked with defending Moscow have been destroyed. Russia is all in on Ukraine.
|
|
#
?
Oct 31, 2022 13:11
|
|
|
Bar Ran Dun posted:I think it also needs to be understood how terrifying damage control is on a ship. Water floods spaces and reduces stability by both free surfaces or worse free communication effects. Firefighting is done with thinking like Halon or inerting gases like CO2. Or with water which again causes stability issues. Holes under the water line are at pressures that vary by depth. And if you list too far and the sea chests aren’t submerged anymore everything just stops working in the plant. And if you are moving at all, the forward momentum of the vessel forces more water in through any hole at even higher pressure. For example, USS Cole was barely saved from sinking and she was stationary. That video of the drone hitting Makarov showed that Makarov was not parked at a berth, but was making way… Now granted there are a lot of variables at play here, but this is just another reason I wouldn’t be surprised if Makarov actually foundered. Incidentally you are totally right about all of this, and firefighting on ships with water can cause serious stability issues. I would wager the firefighting efforts by the fleet tugs is part of what ultimately caused Moskva to sink; however, the terribleness of what I assume was the Russian Navy’s initial DC on Moskva aside, a ship on fire is worse than a ship filling with water… So it can be a damned if you do, damned if you don’t situation when it comes to using water to fight fires on ships sometimes… unless you’re in a submarine, then whatever you do… don’t use water.
|
|
#
?
Oct 31, 2022 13:17
|
|
|
fatherboxx posted:They can't really afford to to spend them that recklessly, because 1) with sanctions in place they are barely replacable; 2) there always needs to be a reserve for a clancychat scenario - it is not total war so Russia can't commit everything it has to this and leave its reserve units bare. This would be what a rational Russian government would be thinking if it were making plans based on objective reality yes
|
|
#
?
Oct 31, 2022 13:21
|
|
|
Moskva was sunk a while ago and Ukraine has received more anti-ship missiles reportedly. Russian navy has kept its distance from Ukrainian shores recently. What are the options for Putin to hinder the grain shipments at this point? I mean sure, they can create a blockade with subs or whatever and sink any merchant vessel that enters UA waters but that would be very blatant and agressive. There is really no good way to have an "accidental hit" on a merchant vessel at this point - there is no naval warfare going on anywhere near the port. Considering Putin has tried to push outside the West that he is the reasonable one - he cannot just overtly start sinking merchants.. right? Same with starting to bomb grain terminals.. Sorry if I missed it if this was discussed already.. perhaps someone could point me back to it SirTagz fucked around with this message at 13:37 on Oct 31, 2022 |
|
#
?
Oct 31, 2022 13:34
|
|
|
fatherboxx posted:They can't really afford to to spend them that recklessly, because 1) with sanctions in place they are barely replacable; 2) there always needs to be a reserve for a clancychat scenario - it is not total war so Russia can't commit everything it has to this and leave its reserve units bare. Kh-101 and Kh-55 are 1980's communist technology, IMHO there's no reason to think that Russia can't make them domestically today. Kalibr is mid-1990's tech, I wouldn't be surprised if the original versions could still be made with available components but the latter improvements in guidance systems very well might require sanctioned components. Finally the reserve for clancynario is ICBM's. Obviously if there was a sudden islamist insurgency in Chechnya or such then there'd be very little that could be done, but it's not like cruise missiles would do much in such scenario anyway.
|
|
#
?
Oct 31, 2022 13:39
|
|
|
Charlz Guybon posted:How many cruise missiles can Russia have left? They are placing a bet that the answer is “more than Ukraine has AA missiles” or close enough to it to supply-degrade Ukrainian AA. My theory is that this is, on top of a bit of the ol’ war-crimes to try and break morale, an automated version of “I sent wave after wave of my own men, until they reached their preset kill limit.” Which also means they won’t be impressed or deterred by Ukrainian shoot-down rates.
|
|
#
?
Oct 31, 2022 13:39
|
|
|
SirTagz posted:Considering Putin has tried to push outside the West that he is the reasonable one - he cannot just overtly start sinking merchants.. right? Same with starting to bomb grain terminals..
|
|
#
?
Oct 31, 2022 13:41
|
|
|
SirTagz posted:
...They already bombed grain terminals.
|
|
#
?
Oct 31, 2022 13:44
|
|
|
Akratic Method posted:They are placing a bet that the answer is “more than Ukraine has AA missiles” or close enough to it to supply-degrade Ukrainian AA. My theory is that this is, on top of a bit of the ol’ war-crimes to try and break morale, an automated version of “I sent wave after wave of my own men, until they reached their preset kill limit.” er cruise missiles are way more expensive than AA missiles even before the crippling sanctions.
|
|
#
?
Oct 31, 2022 13:56
|
|
|
Nenonen posted:Kh-101 and Kh-55 are 1980's communist technology, IMHO there's no reason to think that Russia can't make them domestically today. Kalibr is mid-1990's tech, I wouldn't be surprised if the original versions could still be made with available components but the latter improvements in guidance systems very well might require sanctioned components. IIRC, this discussion has come up before and the answer I found is that any old ballistic they dig up wouldn't have the same range, like you said, but would have to be fired either in a border area, occupied Ukraine like DPR/LPR or Crimea, or inside Ukraine itself, all of which sound like a great way to lose an expensive launcher. Also, they gave or sold a bunch of their older ballistic missiles to Syria, Yemen, and the DPR/LPR, so that's lessened their stocks as well.
|
|
#
?
Oct 31, 2022 14:39
|
|
|
Young Freud posted:IIRC, this discussion has come up before and the answer I found is that any old ballistic they dig up wouldn't have the same range, like you said, but would have to be fired either in a border area, occupied Ukraine like DPR/LPR or Crimea, or inside Ukraine itself, all of which sound like a great way to lose an expensive launcher. Why would they not have the same range? Degradation? The original model of the Kh-55 that entered service in 1983 has a listed maximum range of 2500km
|
|
#
?
Oct 31, 2022 14:43
|
|
|
Tomn posted:Note that this isn't a universal truth across all time. Instituional knowledge and memory is a thing and it can be lost if there isn't a lot of work put into maintaining it - the USN is only going to be good at damage control as long as it continues putting in the work to try and keep it that way (which the Forrestal fire worked to kick asses and convince leadership to take damage control seriously again). Relevantly to the current situation, the Red Army was an incredibly sophisticated and formidable institution by the end of World War 2 so it's not like Russians are always and have always been incompetent at war - the issue was that there wasn't enough effort put into maintaining and updating their institutional knowledge. They've forgotten a lot of what they once knew, and some of what they once knew is starting to get obsolete anyways. Different topic, but this reminded me or something I've been wondering: is there a good write-up about Russian military doctrine out there that's accessible to a non-expert audience? I'd especially be interested in one that included comparisons with other major militaries.
|
|
#
?
Oct 31, 2022 14:54
|
|
|
TheRat posted:Why would they not have the same range? Degradation? The original model of the Kh-55 that entered service in 1983 has a listed maximum range of 2500km I used ballistic missiles because apparently only 13% of Iskander stocks are left while their Kh-101s and Kh-55s cruise missiles are down to 45% at the beginning of October (according to Ukraine's Intelligence Chief) That means they're going to go to older stocks. Also, remember that the cruise missiles are dual-purpose, they're capable of conventional and nuclear attacks. Using those cruise missiles harm's Russia's nuclear deterrence capabilities.
|
|
#
?
Oct 31, 2022 15:06
|
|
|
fatherboxx posted:They can't really afford to to spend them that recklessly, because 1) with sanctions in place they are barely replacable; 2) there always needs to be a reserve for a clancychat scenario - it is not total war so Russia can't commit everything it has to this and leave its reserve units bare. Russia has already effectively denuded their western border. There is almost nothing defending the border for 1500km from Norway to Belarus. They have already made the choice to spend everything and trust that nukes alone will defend them in a "clancychat scenario". They are going to shoot their very last cruise missile while spouting vague threats about how they are going to wipe out all Ukrainian infrastructure forever, and only after they are literally dry will they start thinking about what to do next.
|
|
#
?
Oct 31, 2022 15:49
|
|
|
Young Freud posted:Also, remember that the cruise missiles are dual-purpose, they're capable of conventional and nuclear attacks. Using those cruise missiles harm's Russia's nuclear deterrence capabilities. This is patently absurd. Russia’s nuclear deterrence capabilities are not diminished by firing cruise missiles. The SSBNs and ICBMs do just fine on their own as a deterrent.
|
|
#
?
Oct 31, 2022 15:50
|
|
|
Chalks posted:https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1586996489150152704 There may be some extra AA coming soon: A recent scandal that started when Switzerland suddenly blocked Germany from sending anti-air ammunition we stupidly had bought from them got real spicy when Germany changed its tune to outright threaten the Swiss to never buy military goods from their MIC ever again if they don't stop blocking the shipments. If the Swiss give in, that's tons of poo poo suddenly released from legal red tape for delivering to Ukraine.
|
|
#
?
Oct 31, 2022 15:58
|
|
|
Libluini posted:There may be some extra AA coming soon: A recent scandal that started when Switzerland suddenly blocked Germany from sending anti-air ammunition we stupidly had bought from them got real spicy when Germany changed its tune to outright threaten the Swiss to never buy military goods from their MIC ever again if they don't stop blocking the shipments. Huh funny that, what would happen if all the EU countries would do the same to Germany? Release the Leopards is what I'm saying.
|
|
#
?
Oct 31, 2022 16:00
|
|
|
The UK specifically has a lot of national pride tied up in the Blitz era and Zelenskyy acting out the "We will fight them on the beaches" speech for real by refusing to leave Kyiv won him a lot of support, especially from politicians.
|
|
#
?
Oct 31, 2022 16:00
|
|
|
surf rock posted:Different topic, but this reminded me or something I've been wondering: is there a good write-up about Russian military doctrine out there that's accessible to a non-expert audience? I'd especially be interested in one that included comparisons with other major militaries. I am 100% not an expert, and in fact was funnily led to this document by a cspammer of which I'll say no more lest I get probed for posting about posters, but this document here goes into some depth about Russian military doctrine as of 2017. Being a full-rear end book written for military experts that's probably not quite the accessible document you're looking for, but while searching for this specific document I also ran across this thing here from the RAND Corporation which certainly seems to offer exactly what you're looking for, even with a bunch of summarized key findings. No idea how accurate it is or not, and I've not even read both documents in full yet (the cspammer was mostly posting up individual pages off the first book and I only just found the second one by Googling), but it should probably work as a starting point for understanding, I'd guess. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
|
|
#
?
Oct 31, 2022 16:02
|
|
- one of the missiles changed it's mind about hitting Ukraine
|
Akratic Method posted:They are placing a bet that the answer is “more than Ukraine has AA missiles” or close enough to it to supply-degrade Ukrainian AA. My theory is that this is, on top of a bit of the ol’ war-crimes to try and break morale, an automated version of “I sent wave after wave of my own men, until they reached their preset kill limit.” And of course this won't work because Russia can't out-manufacture NATO. But yeah it'll keep going until Russia is just plain defeated.
|
|
#
?
Oct 31, 2022 16:11
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 24, 2024 15:21 |
|
|
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/biden-lost-temper-zelenskyy-phone-call-ukraine-aid-rcna54592 I would have thought that any more forward progress for this year would be pure bonus politically speaking but it seems there's some push back. Also interesting to consider is if there's any blowback from winning too hard too fast and reducing will to send aid because of the you're already doing fine effect.
|
|
#
?
Oct 31, 2022 16:21
|
|
