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Chalks posted:They probably all got mobilised and sent to the front Way to set the stealth mission difficulty to extremely low
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Nov 1, 2022 02:57
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TheDeadlyShoe posted:Unfortunately I don't think this represents the blockade failing. I imagine the insurance companies have weighed the risks, and decided they'd rather have the ships out of there and meeting their contracts - rather than stuck and hostage to the fortunes of war. The blockade will only have failed when you see more ships heading *in*. If I were a betting man. I’d wager these went in knowing they had a hull policy exclusion in play if anything happened. Destination on most of em is Istanbul on AIS. Edit: if you assert ships can’t go through and they go through that’s not a blockade. Bar Ran Dun fucked around with this message at 03:53 on Nov 1, 2022 |
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Nov 1, 2022 03:47
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Is it significant politically that Turkey aids Ukraine in breaking the Russian blockade? I read that the Turkish Black Sea navy is bigger than the Russian.
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Nov 1, 2022 09:50
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Feliday Melody posted:Is it significant politically that Turkey aids Ukraine in breaking the Russian blockade? Turkey is a NATO member state, and Russia’s sole option for quite a few European things right now. There are also some economical technicalities, for which people muse that Russia would been on maintaining a relationship with Turkey.
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Nov 1, 2022 11:15
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Turkish voters have an impressive appetite for inflation I've been wondering how economic crisis would affect the war since it started but apparently so far the answer is nuh uh
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Nov 1, 2022 11:49
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An interesting revelation from Prigozhin today. From his (un)official press outlet Concord:quote:Enquiry from the editors of the NWFD Herald *Prigozhin accused Beglov of corruption and serving business interest over the needs of the people.
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Nov 1, 2022 13:12
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Paladinus posted:An interesting revelation from Prigozhin today. From his (un)official press outlet Concord: apparently those two have a long-standing hatred of each other from what I've read from Russia commentator folks
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Nov 1, 2022 13:15
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KitConstantine posted:apparently those two have a long-standing hatred of each other from what I've read from Russia commentator folks They do. Prigozhin is often called Putin's cook and controls a vast food business empire. Beglov previously accused Prigozhin, although without outright naming him, of shady deals related to supplying food to schools and kindergartens. The bolded part of his statement, however, is more interesting, in my opinion. He never made a huge secret out of high casualty rates in Wagner, even when recruiting in prisons, but never provided actual numbers neither for how many mercenaries there are or how many are killed in action. If dozens, or rather tens a day, as he says in Russians, is not a figure of speech, even Wagner, who are reportedly better equipped and trained than regular soldiers, really struggle against the Ukrainian army, and their attempts at capturing Bakhmut are more intense than it may appear.
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Nov 1, 2022 13:28
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There are two Wagners. There is the well-trained veteran mercenaries, and there are prisoner-recruits that are apparently used in human wave attacks.
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Nov 1, 2022 13:31
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OddObserver posted:There are two Wagners. There is the well-trained veteran mercenaries, and there are prisoner-recruits that are apparently used in human wave attacks. They still seem to be better trained and equipped than regular Russian soldiers.
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Nov 1, 2022 13:36
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Paladinus posted:They still seem to be better trained and equipped than regular Russian soldiers. That's a pretty goddamned low bar, given what we've seen being handed out to the mobiks.
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Nov 1, 2022 14:25
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KitConstantine posted:apparently those two have a long-standing hatred of each other from what I've read from Russia commentator folks Yes, mostly Beglov regularly fucks up Prigozhin's real estate projects in St Petersburg and Prigozhin uses his media resources (mostly a network of Telegram blogs) to sink him without much success.
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Nov 1, 2022 14:54
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ronya posted:Turkish voters have an impressive appetite for inflation Edrogan is effectively a dictator so whether most voters think this is a good idea is irrelevant.
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Nov 1, 2022 15:17
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Pook Good Mook posted:What are the rules on stopping vessels in a 3rd party state? I can't imagine Greece would be thrilled with Russia pirating ships in the Aegean. Depends on flagging but because this isn't a war technically any naval action outside national waters is piracy, even against Ukrainian flagged vessels(and targeting shipping to neutral ports is unprecedented because random acts of war against third parties has just been beyond the pale after the distinction between warship and ship developed. This is why there was the big stink about that Iranian oil tanker. Basically anyone is within their rights to just start shooting at your flag, on the presumption. I suspect the actual response would be a US destroyer or corvette following next to the ships after they leave Turkish waters if that kind of incident occurred or seemed likely. Oh and that's for pulling ships over, actually sinking one would probably result in basically everyone shooting at every Russian ship in open water. No one likes unrestricted naval warfare.
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Nov 1, 2022 20:05
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Barrel Cactaur posted:Depends on flagging but because this isn't a war technically any naval action outside national waters is piracy, even against Ukrainian flagged vessels(and targeting shipping to neutral ports is unprecedented because random acts of war against third parties has just been beyond the pale after the distinction between warship and ship developed. This is why there was the big stink about that Iranian oil tanker. Basically anyone is within their rights to just start shooting at your flag, on the presumption. I suspect the actual response would be a US destroyer or corvette following next to the ships after they leave Turkish waters if that kind of incident occurred or seemed likely. Ehhhh...you sure about that? One of the big things about the British blockade during WW1 was that they eventually clamped down on shipping to neutral ports bordering Germany, on the basis that shipping to, say, the Netherlands so that the goods could be shipped on to Germany was essentially shipping to Germany via the concept of continuous voyage, and that as such the British had a right to inspect and detain ships whose cargo could be deemed contraband or which could be suspected of having Germany as its final destination. Something similar came up during the Napoleonic Wars as well, which was part of the grievances that triggered the war of 1812. Mind you, both times attempting to enforce that rule DID cause a lot of ruffled feathers internationally and during WW1 in the US for instance there was an argument for a time that the British blockade was as bad as the U-boat campaign. They eventually decided that killing US sailors and citizens was worse than restricting US trade, but they still weren't happy about it. Also the idea that random acts of war against third parties was before the pale since warships were a thing is kinda funny - there's a reason the English had a reputation as pirates throughout the 16th century. Granted this was more because they didn't really have the ability to restrict the actions of captains at sea far from home and didn't really want to since such captains formed the basis of their seapower when the state was unable to maintain an effective national navy, and in any event talking about what exactly international law was in the early modern period ultimately came down to ultima ratio regum (at least, more explicitly than it does now) but...yeah. Point is, it's not quite unprecedented, but it HAS been out of vogue for a while now and causes raised eyebrows. As you say, the fact that this isn't technically a war could arguably cause lawyers to say that the formal rules of blockade don't apply and the whole thing is illegal, but to be honest blockades whenever used in the past usually raised a storm of legal objections anyways and was usually ultimately justified with "We're the British Empire/United States and we want to do it, and if you want to keep trading with us and not piss us off you'd better deal with it." Thing is, Russia doesn't exactly have the leverage of the British Empire at its height and its ability to force people into accepting their right to blockade is pretty limited. If anything any hostile acts against neutral shipping or in neutral waters is likely to just make it that much easier for their governments to argue that sanctions are good, actually, and we should do more.
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Nov 1, 2022 21:04
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Owling Howl posted:https://twitter.com/TpyxaNews/status/1585279195038588929?t=Q79j2ju2RxAUtQZtN58BSg&s=19 I've seen articles about this tech in the past. I don't know if it actually works in practice, but it's been in development and testing for some time. Flappy Bert posted:https://www.benning.army.mil/armor/earmor/content/issues/2017/spring/2Fiore17.pdf FWIW, as a former armor and cavalry officer at the tactical level this is a good essay. It presumes some knowledge on the part of the reader but is fairly approachable. Naval operations and making poor countries starve: If there were any way of doing it with plausible deniability, I'd love to see some Russian warship which shoots a grain barge get sunk in a hurry with a, "Whoops, we didn't see the Russian flag and assumed it was a pirate."
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Nov 1, 2022 21:12
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Barrel Cactaur posted:No one likes unrestricted naval warfare. The Russians have been harassing vessels calling Ukrainian ports since 2018. That was a big part of why they that built that bridge too. Air draft of empty vessels (specifically geared handy multipurpose vessels that load steel coils) was too high to go under. https://maritime-executive.com/article/u-s-accuses-russia-of-harassing-ukrainian-shipping
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Nov 1, 2022 22:00
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Ynglaur posted:Naval operations and making poor countries starve: If there were any way of doing it with plausible deniability, I'd love to see some Russian warship which shoots a grain barge get sunk in a hurry with a, "Whoops, we didn't see the Russian flag and assumed it was a pirate." There's no need for plausible deniability. The Turkish Navy is literally escorting the convoy of merchantmen, and the grain corridor deal made it clear that they will fire on anyone who attacks the convoy. It is under their protection. This is specifically why the Russian hissy fit on the subject shot up a tugboat that was very far from the convoy.
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Nov 1, 2022 23:06
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The US has won the civilizational struggle. People were celebrating Halloween in Odesa.
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Nov 2, 2022 02:38
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Ynglaur posted:I've seen articles about this tech in the past. I don't know if it actually works in practice, but it's been in development and testing for some time. I read that report a few days ago and it seems to be written from a perspective of an American BCT going 1 on 1 with a Russian BTG over some piece of terrain but isn't an American BCT a much larger organization than a Russian BTG and would they necessarily line up one-to-one? Wouldn't a hypothetical scenario where the two sides have force parity in numbers see an American BCT face off against multiple Russian BTGs?
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Nov 2, 2022 03:23
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Bar Ran Dun posted:If I were a betting man. I’d wager these went in knowing they had a hull policy exclusion in play if anything happened. I guess I view *escaping* a blockade as different than running it. However, it seems there have been reports of ships going in and not just out, so even under my definition the blockade seems broken. MikeC posted:I read that report a few days ago and it seems to be written from a perspective of an American BCT going 1 on 1 with a Russian BTG over some piece of terrain but isn't an American BCT a much larger organization than a Russian BTG and would they necessarily line up one-to-one? Wouldn't a hypothetical scenario where the two sides have force parity in numbers see an American BCT face off against multiple Russian BTGs? I had the same issue with the report when it was posted a while back. There was some interesting stuff in there, but fundamentally if it's contrasting the strengths of two organizational methods it should be doing so with force parity. Similar concerns with the ABCT's ability to deal with new threats versus the BTG - needs to account for multiple BTGs being available. But then you're kind of intrinsically spotting things to the BTG. The reality is that it can be hard to coordinate things between units. If it wasn't hard we wouldn't be using these relatively larger formations. And the ability of BTGs to coordinate seems to be not very good in the current war. TheDeadlyShoe fucked around with this message at 03:36 on Nov 2, 2022 |
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Nov 2, 2022 03:30
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The Russian BTG is a weird "in between" unit from an American perspective, so it's not a 1:1 with a BCT but it doesn't quite make sense to compare it to a smaller US unit either, is my guess. The BTG PLUS attached auxiliaries/reserves/whatever would be given similar missions to an American BCT I think. Just do then much shittier. (Though in reality an American BCT would kill entire Russian divisions/corps so...)
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Nov 2, 2022 03:45
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FishBulbia posted:The US has won the civilizational struggle. People were celebrating Halloween in Odesa. The United States made Halloween? lmao, Americans
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Nov 2, 2022 04:06
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Halloween was just a psy op by big pumpkin to sell pumpkins (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST) Horsebanger fucked around with this message at 04:10 on Nov 2, 2022 |
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Nov 2, 2022 04:07
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sean10mm posted:The Russian BTG is a weird "in between" unit from an American perspective, so it's not a 1:1 with a BCT but it doesn't quite make sense to compare it to a smaller US unit either, is my guess. Yeah the report does touch on this, in that the assumption is the BTG will have paramilitary forces or local allies giving it numbers parity. The assumption was also that the BTG is just a transitional unit while the Russian Army modernized, though, and they're rightfully critical of both assumptions as we can see in Ukraine. The BTG is an interesting formation because they really worked well in a specific structure and context and seem to have really struggled once those assumptions were violated. Part and parcel of Russia's "budget superpower" strategy. Morrow fucked around with this message at 04:31 on Nov 2, 2022 |
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Nov 2, 2022 04:18
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Has there been any discussion regarding the possible hack on the Ukrainian c&c program Delta? I heard a bit of rumblings regarding it this morning, but barring the alleged hackers Telegram I'm not finding much information. Telegram link - Joker DPR
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Nov 2, 2022 04:51
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MyMomSaysImKeen posted:Has there been any discussion regarding the possible hack on the Ukrainian c&c program Delta? From an Ukrainian source (obviously biased), they confirm the breach. But seems it was just your regular phising rather than some hackermans thing. https://censor.net/ru/b3377583 quote:The Russians are lying about hacking the Delta system
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Nov 2, 2022 05:03
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Tuna-Fish posted:There's no need for plausible deniability. The Turkish Navy is literally escorting the convoy of merchantmen, and the grain corridor deal made it clear that they will fire on anyone who attacks the convoy. It is under their protection. I also read that Russia is basically parking their fleet in port to avoid another Moskva. They can't use their fleet to stop the blockade runners and aren't willing to risk their air assets over open water.
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Nov 2, 2022 05:34
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Has there been any more news on the two Russian ships that Ukraine attacked with the remote control boats? I figured that if the damage to them was minimal to non-existent, Russia would be showing them off to counter the Ukrainian claims.
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Nov 2, 2022 05:46
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Mr. Apollo posted:Has there been any more news on the two Russian ships that Ukraine attacked with the remote control boats? I figured that if the damage to them was minimal to non-existent, Russia would be showing them off to counter the Ukrainian claims. This assumes they were capable of leaving port under their own power before the attack
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Nov 2, 2022 07:27
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MyMomSaysImKeen posted:Has there been any discussion regarding the possible hack on the Ukrainian c&c program Delta? Generally, security breaches of important enemy systems are better put to work under OPSEC instead of airing them through the account larping as the loving Joker
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Nov 2, 2022 08:59
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E: sorry this is not the eurpol thread. Saladman fucked around with this message at 09:13 on Nov 2, 2022 |
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Nov 2, 2022 09:08
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Feliday Melody posted:I read that the Turkish Black Sea navy is bigger than the Russian. Russia has always had the problem with their geographical size meaning they have to split their naval resources between multiple oceans, above and beyond the wider issues of hollowing out and rusting away that afflicts their armed forces as a whole. It isn't an easy journey to shunt warships between Vladivostok, Sevastopol, St Petersburg and Murmansk so they've just ended up with multiple lovely mini-navies to fly the flag on every coast.
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Nov 2, 2022 09:19
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Roller Coast Guard posted:Russia has always had the problem with their geographical size meaning they have to split their naval resources between multiple oceans, above and beyond the wider issues of hollowing out and rusting away that afflicts their armed forces as a whole. It isn't an easy journey to shunt warships between Vladivostok, Sevastopol, St Petersburg and Murmansk so they've just ended up with multiple lovely mini-navies to fly the flag on every coast. They even have a flotilla at Astrakhan for the Caspian sea. I don't know if that's just a handful of tugboats or something like it.
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Nov 2, 2022 10:07
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Is the Times guilty of Clancy chat? https://twitter.com/KenRoth/status/1587734009748099075
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Nov 2, 2022 10:14
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Since the grain deal withdrawal didn't exactly work out as planned, they want back in: https://www.rte.ie/news/ukraine/2022/1102/1332709-ukraine-russia/ quote:Russia will resume its participation in the Black Sea grain deal, the country's defence ministry has said. 
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Nov 2, 2022 12:07
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FishMcCool posted:Since the grain deal withdrawal didn't exactly work out as planned, they want back in: Surprise surprise Russian foreign policy changed when Ukraine figured out it was a bluff. This has only happened a dozen or so times this year?
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Nov 2, 2022 13:08
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Tomn posted:Ehhhh...you sure about that? One of the big things about the British blockade during WW1 was that they eventually clamped down on shipping to neutral ports bordering Germany, on the basis that shipping to, say, the Netherlands so that the goods could be shipped on to Germany was essentially shipping to Germany via the concept of continuous voyage, and that as such the British had a right to inspect and detain ships whose cargo could be deemed contraband or which could be suspected of having Germany as its final destination. Something similar came up during the Napoleonic Wars as well, which was part of the grievances that triggered the war of 1812. Mind you, both times attempting to enforce that rule DID cause a lot of ruffled feathers internationally and during WW1 in the US for instance there was an argument for a time that the British blockade was as bad as the U-boat campaign. They eventually decided that killing US sailors and citizens was worse than restricting US trade, but they still weren't happy about it. My understanding is that blockades are prima facie illegal even during a declared war between two states. That’s why nothing is ever called a blockade anymore. Ships can be stopped and seized or turned around if they are carrying contraband of war—weapons or the material to make them. Even during the First World War the Entente ‘blockade’ wasn’t called as such. In practice it was one because the Entente, and later the American co-belligerents classified—very ‘illegally ‘ mind you—anything the German military could use, including food and medicine, “contraband of war.” And of course, if you are classifying anything a government’s military members could possibly “use” as contraband, you’ve played a legal game and managed to blockade everything while still saying “no illegal blockade of merchant traffic here.” Speaking of which, I see the Russian Federation is “back in” on the grain deal, which says to me the Black Sea Fleet has been incapacitated to the point that the Russian Federation realizes it’s withdraw from the deal is toothless and makes Russia look impotent.
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