ZombieLenin posted:

Speaking of which, I see the Russian Federation is “back in” on the grain deal, which says to me the Black Sea Fleet has been incapacitated to the point that the Russian Federation realizes it’s withdraw from the deal is toothless and makes Russia look impotent.

Owling Howl posted:

Maybe but it's probably as much that stopping grain exports would only marginally harm Ukraine and the political fallout for Russia would a lot worse.

boofhead posted:

I assume if they're pretending to be part of the deal it means they have the capacity to slow it down way more from the inside than if they were on the outside making empty threats and having their bluffs called at speed

boofhead posted:

I assume if they're pretending to be part of the deal it means they have the capacity to slow it down way more from the inside than if they were on the outside making empty threats and having their bluffs called at speed

The same logic is also AFAICT part of why the UK joined and stayed in the EU for so long despite being consistently ideologically opposed to the entire concept of continental European unity. You can gently caress poo poo up and derail things a lot more easily if you're on the team responsible for implementing it, rather than part of the angry but largely impotent picket line outside

FishMcCool posted:

Since the grain deal withdrawal didn't exactly work out as planned, they want back in:

https://www.rte.ie/news/ukraine/2022/1102/1332709-ukraine-russia/

The ministry said that thanks to the involvement of the United Nations and Turkey, it had been possible to obtain written guarantees from Ukraine that it would not use the humanitarian corridor and Ukrainian ports to conduct military operations against Russia.

boofhead posted:

I assume if they're pretending to be part of the deal it means they have the capacity to slow it down way more from the inside than if they were on the outside making empty threats and having their bluffs called at speed

Discendo Vox posted:

While the latter paragraph is a famous joke from Yes, Minister, it describes a unity of planning, intent and deception to all the UK that’s just not evident.

redbrouw posted:

The United States made Halloween? lmao, Americans

Payndz posted:

Huh, so what's the Portuguese for 'milkshake duck?'

https://twitter.com/kjovano/status/1587057798382338049?s=46&t=6hp8wuEcuv4XbWHItvCuRw
What a bizarre thing to say. Zelenskyy wanted war so he could be on television? He was on television! It really does smack of the uncaring teacher who punishes bully and victim equally because "it takes two to fight".

KitConstantine posted:

I would say that's exactly why, which Turkey demonstrated by releasing a bunch of grain ships Russia was holding up under the deal for 'inspections'
https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPR/status/1587787965786382344?s=20&t=rnvTo2bXlziGET9MXeVwQw

Chalks posted:

Do we know if Russia is going to be able to jump right back in to sabotaging the grain shipments like this now they're agreeing to the deal again?

Also, what exactly does Russia get by delaying the grain shipments? The west stopped caring about the shipments once the deal was signed, so doing this has all the down sides but without any of the leverage?

jaete posted:

I wonder how this will work in practice. Can the other participants in the deal just tell Russia no sorry we're fine, stay out of this please? I mean, it's pretty obvious that Russia is a bad faith actor through and through, so it's not like anything of value would be lost by excluding them

Fabulous Knight posted:

Lula's opinions on Ukraine are disappointing, but if I have to choose between someone with such opinions who will simultaneously improve domestic welfare and strengthen democracy inside his own country (and these days that means thereby strengthening it across the world) versus someone with such opinions who is taking a wrecking ball to domestic democracy, I will happily choose the former.

Oracle posted:

Its still leverage in that it will contribute to destabilization of areas of the world that tend to bleed out into other areas of the world. For instance food shortages in Africa mean more migrants to Europe which leads to more ascendant rightwing fascist parties, more coups and instability in the Third World and Russia being able to wield a big stick over the heads of poor African/Middle Eastern governments in the form of 'bread for your people in exchange for you helping to muddy the waters and blame Ukraine and the West for this terrible war/vote for Russian proposals in the UN/keep your oil production low to bump up gas prices etc otherwise good luck with unrest when noone can afford to eat a staple food crop.'

Just Another Lurker posted:

This is very interesting, has leaving the deal made them irrelevant to the inspection process?

quote:

Grain shipments from Ukraine will resume on Wednesday after Russia
agreed to rejoin a UN-backed initiative to allow exports via the Black Sea, ending a stand-off that threatened to reignite a global food crisis.

Turkey’s president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan said Sergei Shoigu, the Russian defence minister, had phoned his Turkish counterpart to say Moscow was back on board.

Erdoğan, who has maintained close ties with Vladimir Putin since Moscow launched its invasion of Ukraine and helped broker the original grain deal in July, said the Russian president told him he would like to see “the poorest countries of Africa” benefit first.

The next shipments of grain would head to Somalia, Djibouti and Sudan, countries particularly vulnerable without Ukrainian agricultural imports, the Turkish president added.

Russia quit the pact on Saturday, accusing Kyiv of targeting its naval fleet in the Black Sea following claims of a Ukrainian drone attack on its warships.

Moscow’s withdrawal threatened a rare example of wartime co-operation that has allowed more than 9mn tonnes of Ukrainian agricultural products to reach international markets, helping forestall a global food crisis.

Igor Konashenkov, Russia’s defence ministry spokesman, said Kyiv had offered written guarantees that it would not use Ukraine’s grain-exporting ports or the export corridor “to conduct combat operations against Russia”.

Konashenkov said Ukraine had agreed to abide by rules set under the UN and Turkey’s mediation, which he said was “sufficient” to return to the deal.

Ukraine did not immediately comment on what guarantees it had given to Russia. Kyiv has complained that Russia is continuing to use its Black Sea fleet to launch air strikes on Ukraine, including a series of crippling attacks on energy infrastructure in recent weeks — and has repeatedly denied using the grain corridor to conduct its own strikes.

Amir Abdulla, UN co-ordinator for the grain agreement, said in a post on Twitter that he was “grateful for the Turkish facilitation” and that he welcomed the return of Russia to the deal.

After Turkey’s announcement, wheat futures fell 6.4 per cent at $8.45 a bushel, while corn was down 2.4 per cent at $6.81 a bushel. Insurers at the Lloyd’s of London consortium said they had resumed offering quotes to cover vessels under the grain deal.

“The best way to understand the meaning of Black Sea Grain Initiative is to look at the market reaction after [the deal’s] stabilisation,” said Oleksandr Kubrakov, Ukraine’s infrastructure minister, in a tweet.

Turkey’s foreign minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu said previously on Wednesday that Russia had made “security demands” after the weekend attack but did not elaborate.

Çavuşoğlu was quoted as telling a panel that Moscow also wanted to export more of its own agricultural products that were part of the agreement.

“Russian fertiliser and grains are not on the list of sanctions but ships that will carry these are unable to dock, [insurance] payments are not being made. The ships of many countries are hesitant about transporting these cargos,” Çavuşoğlu said.

The original grain agreement was brokered in July by the UN and Ankara to end Russia’s blockade of grain, food and fertiliser exports via Ukraine’s ports after Moscow’s full-scale invasion of its neighbour in February.

Ukraine is also seeking to lift Russia’s blockade on other commodities including steel, another key source of hard currency for Kyiv.

Ukraine is one of the world’s leading suppliers of grain and other agricultural products. Food security experts have warned that shortages triggered by the war will have serious consequences for poor countries already facing a crisis caused by the impact of climate change and the Covid-19 pandemic.

quote:

The newly delivered ‘Defiant’ patrol boats are already operating in the Black Sea.

The 40 foot (12.2 meters) long ‘40 Defiant’ is built by Metal Shark in Franklin, Louisiana. Two Cummins QSB 6.7 diesel engines, driving twin water jets, allow it to reach speeds of up to 40 knots. The welded aluminum monohull design includes ballistic protection to increase combat survivability.

In 2017 the U.S. Navy selected the Defiant, to be known as the 40 PB, to replace existing Coastal Riverine Forces (CRF) boats. Now 6 of these have been supplied to Ukraine as part of a package following the Russian invasion.

In U.S. Navy service they can be equipped with remote operated weapons stations. In Ukrainian service they have been shown with crew operated weapons. These include two M2 .50 Cal Browning heavy machine guns, a Mk.19 automatic grenade launcher and an M240 7.56mm medium machine gun. These weapons can be rapidly switched to other pedestal mounted systems.

FishMcCool posted:

Since the grain deal withdrawal didn't exactly work out as planned, they want back in:

https://www.rte.ie/news/ukraine/2022/1102/1332709-ukraine-russia/

KitConstantine posted:

More in the article but this is the key bit

Payndz posted:

Huh, so what's the Portuguese for 'milkshake duck?'

https://twitter.com/kjovano/status/1587057798382338049?s=46&t=6hp8wuEcuv4XbWHItvCuRw
What a bizarre thing to say. Zelenskyy wanted war so he could be on television? He was on television! It really does smack of the uncaring teacher who punishes bully and victim equally because "it takes two to fight".

quote:

Donbas fighters – $200;
Enlisted personnel and sergeants, warrant officers – $300;
Former criminal prisoners from the Russian Federation – $300;
Junior Officer – $400;
Senior Officers and special forces operators – $500;
Special forces operators and Afghans from the so-called “Private Companies” – $600;
So-called kadyrovtsi – $700.

Scratch Monkey posted:

Plotac 75 posted:

It's a tough little ship.

ZombieLenin posted:

Speaking of which, I see the Russian Federation is “back in” on the grain deal, which says to me the Black Sea Fleet has been incapacitated to the point that the Russian Federation realizes it’s withdraw from the deal is toothless and makes Russia look impotent.

quote:

...
“We took this position a few weeks ago – you can see we’re still preparing the trenches,” says Bohdan, a 27-year old Ukrainian army reservist called up in April. “They’ve mostly left us alone since then,” he adds, gesturing out past the treeline towards Russian lines further south.

The soldiers’ easy demeanour reflects the confidence they are feeling. Over the last two months, momentum in the war has clearly swung towards Ukraine’s side. The collapse of Russian lines in northeastern Kharkiv oblast in early September was a shock even to the Ukrainians themselves, as they quickly seized back more than 8,000 square kilometres of territory, driving Russian troops back to the border.

Here, the fighting has been more difficult: A concurrent offensive in Kherson made only fitful gains, facing off against much of Moscow’s remaining professional troops, transferred here in the months before. The advances into northeast Kherson in early October were hard-won.

The brigade’s commanders affirm that the shelling has lessened substantially.

“This morning they were hitting us, but nothing like what they used to,” says Nazar, a 38-year-old officer from Lviv. “The intensity is much lower than a month and a half ago. They still fire on us – GRADs, Uragans [rocket artillery], heavy howitzers – but we control the situation now,” Nazar says.
...

“We’ve already seen their mobilised men [here],” Nazar says. “You can tell immediately by their level of preparation – much lower [than what we’re used to seeing].” Asked to describe that level, Nazar gives two words: “cannon fodder”.
...

“I’ve worked with American commanders and advisors,” Nazar says. “They have a great phrase: ‘do as I do’. It’s their motto, and I try to follow it as well.

“Russian commanders, on the other hand, they give orders and tasks to their soldiers without knowing how they will achieve them. Then they sit back while their troops fight, not caring how many of them will die or not. In order for your soldiers to trust you, they must see that you are not somewhere far away, but there at the forward positions with them. That’s the exact opposite of how Russian officers think,” he says.
...

“Let’s put it this way,” Nazar says. “I would like to conquer Yalta [in occupied Crimea] tomorrow. We would all like that, but I understand that it’s not quite possible yet. We will take Kherson when we consider it right.

“Are we ready to enter Kherson now? Yes, we are ready. Can we do it? If we really want it, then yes. But we have to understand what human losses we are going to have. The most important thing is people’s lives. As a commander, I have to do everything to get all the people who came to me on the 24th of February home – to see the end of the war,” he says.
....

ZombieLenin posted:

My understanding is that blockades are prima facie illegal even during a declared war between two states.

That’s why nothing is ever called a blockade anymore. Ships can be stopped and seized or turned around if they are carrying contraband of war—weapons or the material to make them.

Even during the First World War the Entente ‘blockade’ wasn’t called as such. In practice it was one because the Entente, and later the American co-belligerents classified—very ‘illegally ‘ mind you—anything the German military could use, including food and medicine, “contraband of war.”

And of course, if you are classifying anything a government’s military members could possibly “use” as contraband, you’ve played a legal game and managed to blockade everything while still saying “no illegal blockade of merchant traffic here.”

Speaking of which, I see the Russian Federation is “back in” on the grain deal, which says to me the Black Sea Fleet has been incapacitated to the point that the Russian Federation realizes it’s withdraw from the deal is toothless and makes Russia look impotent.

KitConstantine posted:

Good thread on where Russia appears to be setting up their lines across the river
https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1587726245160271873?s=20&t=rnvTo2bXlziGET9MXeVwQw

quote:

As of 2 November 2022, Nord Stream AG has completed initial data gathering at the location of the pipeline damage on Line 1 in the Swedish exclusive economic zone.

According to preliminary results of the damage site inspection, technogenic craters with a depth of 3 to 5 meters were found on the seabed at a distance of about 248 m from each other. The section of the pipe between the craters is destroyed, the radius of pipe fragments dispersion is at least 250 m. Experts continue to analyse the survey data.

KitConstantine posted:

Oh almost forgot about seeing this - Nordstream released some more details on the nordstream pipeline damage -https://www.nord-stream.com/press-info/press-releases/incident-on-the-nord-stream-pipeline-updated-02112022-529/
https://twitter.com/OAlexanderDK/status/1587806021505908739?s=20&t=pgRgIg5pI57qFSqbP9Atfg
Portion from today:

So ongoing

Kraftwerk posted:

Do we have any information on whether the US is going to pull its Ukraine support after the midterms if the GOP wins? It seems there's a lot of strong indicators they might do this and Putin is counting on it.

MikeC posted:

I read that report a few days ago and it seems to be written from a perspective of an American BCT going 1 on 1 with a Russian BTG over some piece of terrain but isn't an American BCT a much larger organization than a Russian BTG and would they necessarily line up one-to-one? Wouldn't a hypothetical scenario where the two sides have force parity in numbers see an American BCT face off against multiple Russian BTGs?

mrfart posted:

They even have a flotilla at Astrakhan for the Caspian sea. I don't know if that's just a handful of tugboats or something like it.

Sekenr posted:

This is why. Also a good example on how to deal with Putin. When Turkey shot down a russian fighter jet in Syria there was also a bit of quiet bleating, otherwise no response whatsoever

Ynglaur posted:

Yes, you're correct. The author's premise is that the BTG is vulnerable due to its task organization. For example, it really only has one command post; US battalions have two. The BTG has very little organic maintenance or vehicle recovery assets, so stringing it out along a long line of supply makes it vulnerable. BTGs carry little organic supply. Theoretically a Russian brigade or regiment would have these assets, but doctrinally they sit further to the rear. That makes more sense if you assume the front is only 10-12 km deep from the forward line of contact, and in fact can help you protect those assets. What we're seeing in Ukraine, though, is that assets are under threat of indirect fire 50km or more from the forward line of contact. So now the BTGs 1) have fewer support assets immediately available; and 2) they're no more protected than if they were more available.

Also, Russian brigades simply don't have the same logistics and support capabilities a US BCT does. Russian BTGs are fundamentally brittle; they can throw down a lot of combat power, but are one bad artillery strike away from running around without any command assets, or without any mechanics. They have all of this artillery and EW assets, but can't coordinate them easily with maneuver formations outside of that BTG.