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davecrazy
Nov 25, 2004

I'm an insufferable shitposter who does not deserve to root for such a good team. Also, this is what Matt Harvey thinks of me and my garbage posting.
And shitposting AOC.

Obama and the Kaedashians need to publicly delete their accounts and the whole thing will collapse in on itself.

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Papercut
Aug 24, 2005

Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:

Not sure how ending work from home is going to save costs, but :shrug:

It's another backdoor way to fire people; people will just quit rather than return to work.

Silly Burrito
Nov 27, 2007

SET A COURSE FOR
THE FLAVOR QUADRANT
It just seems like he's trying to kill it with all these stupid moves, but surely someone wouldn't spend 44 billion on something just to kill it instantly.

Right?

Gatts
Jan 2, 2001

Goodnight Moon

Nap Ghost
What will the vacuum of a Twitterless media/social-verse create in its absence to take its place?

Tiny Timbs
Sep 6, 2008

Gatts posted:

What will the vacuum of a Twitterless media/social-verse create in its absence to take its place?

Some other dumb public site to post bad takes on, probably. Twitter wasn’t exactly a technological revolution, just a free service meeting a need that other businesses hadn’t quite figured out.

Discendo Vox
Mar 21, 2013

We don't need to have that dialogue because it's obvious, trivial, and has already been had a thousand times.

Gatts posted:

What will the vacuum of a Twitterless media/social-verse create in its absence to take its place?

You're there right now.

Youth Decay
Aug 18, 2015

Gatts posted:

What will the vacuum of a Twitterless media/social-verse create in its absence to take its place?

Comedy option: Mastodon (they apparently got >70k new members in the last week due to Elon's bullshit)

nine-gear crow
Aug 10, 2013

Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:

Musk moving rapidly to cut costs and raise more money from Twitter.

Moving up the subscription plan release date and firing half of all Twitter staff after they already fired 25% earlier.

Not sure how ending work from home is going to save costs, but :shrug:

https://twitter.com/sarahfrier/status/1587967043604602880

And here I thought David Zaslav and Warner Bros. was going to claim the crown of "Quickest, most disastrous series of business decisions of 2022", but here comes Elon Musk hot on Zaslav's heels with a pair of rocket boots manufactured by his Tesla staff who've assured him they're completely saf--OH NO THEY EXPLODED!

VikingofRock
Aug 24, 2008




Youth Decay posted:

Comedy option: Mastodon (they apparently got >70k new members in the last week due to Elon's bullshit)

I moved to Mastodon, and a decent chunk of the people I follow on Twitter have, too. I like it so far, but the main mastodon.social servers have been noticeably melting down during daylight US hours.

rscott
Dec 10, 2009

evilweasel posted:

theoretically, the banks are fine for this being a stupid idea for certain magnitudes of stupid. they lent $13 billion on a senior secured basis - i.e., their collateral is the entire company. so, as long as the company is worth $13 billion plus an equity cusion - say, another $7 billion to round it out to a neat $20 billion, the loans were (theoretically) fine for them even if elon was a complete moron

this buyout was a leveraged buy-out in theory - it was funded in part by debt put on the company - but it wasn't really much of one. take Toys R' Us, which was basically run into the ground by a leveraged buyout. there, the new owners put up 20% of the price, and borrowed 80% secured by the company. that's highly leveraged - there's only a 20% "equity cushion" - and, of course, the private equity funds relentlessly pillaged the company to get that 20% back.

here, musk put up 70% in cash and only borrowed 30%. that should be an incredibly safe debt level, even if musk overpaid. but it's not: the company probably can't even make those interest payments (which also means, musk can't even afford to loot it - theoretically making it safer). the company already looks highly stressed and less than a week into owning twitter musk is being incredibly Not Mad and definitely Not Desperate For Money on twitter.

the banks should have been incredibly safe, but it looks seriously likely their debt is already impaired - not just the change in interest rates making the existing interest rate less attractive, but the market seems dubious it's getting paid back. that means that basically the entire equity investment appears to have been lit on fire.

If Barbarians At The Gate was the tragedy, this (or the book that's inevitably written about this whole saga) is the farce

Tibalt
May 14, 2017

What, drawn, and talk of peace! I hate the word, As I hate hell, all Montagues, and thee

Tiny Timbs posted:

Some other dumb public site to post bad takes on, probably. Twitter wasn’t exactly a technological revolution, just a free service meeting a need that other businesses hadn’t quite figured out.
Honest answer? TikTok. Despite the xenophobic fear mongering, it's becoming increasingly popular as a source of news, especially for younger generations. Look forward to getting breaking news from a small team of skit comedians working for the New York Times.

kdrudy
Sep 19, 2009

So next week is when the only verified users will suddenly be the crypto grifters, making the entire idea useless.

Clarste
Apr 15, 2013

Just how many mistakes have you suffered on the way here?

An uncountable number, to be sure.

kdrudy posted:

So next week is when the only verified users will suddenly be the crypto grifters, making the entire idea useless.

I dunno, sounds like a goal Musk might approve of.

Boot and Rally
Apr 21, 2006

8===D
Nap Ghost

Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:


Moving up the subscription plan release date and firing half of all Twitter staff after they already fired 25% earlier.


Did he fire the 25%? I can only find things saying that "he plans to". Or was the 25% thing before the take over?

Leon Trotsky 2012
Aug 27, 2009

YOU CAN TRUST ME!*


*Israeli Government-affiliated poster

Boot and Rally posted:

Did he fire the 25%? I can only find things saying that "he plans to". Or was the 25% thing before the take over?

You're right. He announced he was going to fire 25% last week in order to prevent stock vesting, but I guess someone talked him out of it because of the obvious lawsuit. He only fired a much smaller amount according to the reports from Monday.

Not sure if that smaller amount is the first wave of the 50% of cuts or in addition to, but still a massive amount of layoffs in a short amount of time.

Shooting Blanks
Jun 6, 2007

Real bullets mess up how cool this thing looks.

-Blade



It's worth remembering that the initial announcement was that he was going to fire 75% of Twitter's workforce, but that got walked back pretty quickly. I think we're still in "Musk doesn't have a plan" mode and is just throwing poo poo at the wall until something sticks.

nine-gear crow
Aug 10, 2013

Shooting Blanks posted:

It's worth remembering that the initial announcement was that he was going to fire 75% of Twitter's workforce, but that got walked back pretty quickly. I think we're still in "Musk doesn't have a plan" mode and is just throwing poo poo at the wall until something sticks.

Unfortunately (or fortunately) "Musk doesn't have a plan" mode is a permanent state when it comes to Elon Musk. This is the man who once said "I will put a human on Mars in 10 years" 11 years ago, after all...

Ghost Leviathan
Mar 2, 2017

Exploration is ill-advised.
Musk is perpetually chasing the next shiny new toy. He's the dog that's caught the car right now.

Blind Rasputin
Nov 25, 2002

Farewell, good Hunter. May you find your worth in the waking world.

Silly Burrito posted:

It just seems like he's trying to kill it with all these stupid moves, but surely someone wouldn't spend 44 billion on something just to kill it instantly.

Right?

Is it all a ploy just to coerce everyone to migrate Truth Social? Is that the reason Trump says he’s staying on there?

Hell furure: Elon kills Twitter, Truth Social becomes the default social media site. Trump uses proceeds to pay all his legal bills.

nine-gear crow
Aug 10, 2013

Blind Rasputin posted:

Is it all a ploy just to coerce everyone to migrate Truth Social? Is that the reason Trump says he’s staying on there?

Hell furure: Elon kills Twitter, Truth Social becomes the default social media site. Trump uses proceeds to pay all his legal bills.

No one who's not already an Nth level chud is ever going to migrate to Truther, by choice or by force. People would just strait up stop participating if that was the only game in town. Like how a whole swath of NSFW artists and content creators just packed it in after Tumblr outlawed porn rather than migrate over to Twitter or elsewhere. And Musk is too much of a wildcard mercenary to ever possible collude with anyone at a task as monumental as destroying Twitter from the inside to soothe Donald Trump's eternally bruised ego. You honestly think Elon Musk is the type of person who'd ever take orders from another human being, particularly a human being shaped glob of cellulite like Donald Trump?

I think if there's any sort of detectable user bleed from Musk's ADHD "help me, how do I run business?" antics, Jack Dorsey is going to rush whatever the gently caress Bluesky is out the door to act as a sponge to try and soak as much of it up as possible at Elonk's expense.

nine-gear crow fucked around with this message at 07:15 on Nov 3, 2022

Mendrian
Jan 6, 2013

Idk man if you follow the actions of CEOs for big businesses this kind of poo poo is par. Staples, BB&B, a lot of retail really, this kind of thing is commonplace. rear end in a top hat CEOs always think bang boom so simple reduce costs and increase income. It's like the business version of rear end in a top hat diet science.

What most rear end in a top hat CEOs fail to understand is that humans perform work that is required for the health of the business. It looks self destructive because you have a brain and a soul. To assholes it looks great on a balance sheet so long as you assume all the labor you're now missing had no value which I assure you is exactly what Musk presumes.

Vire
Nov 4, 2005

Like a Bosh
drat even if I am part of the 50% he doesn't fire I don't see why any of them would stick around. Especially since he is nuking work from home when all of these people should be able to easily get work from home jobs elsewhere. I mean if I know that good chance I get fired on Friday anyway why even bother pulling all nighters when you can be applying to new jobs on company time and slow roll this stupid $8 bucks thing to stick it to his dumb rear end.

Failed Imagineer
Sep 22, 2018

Vire posted:

drat even if I am part of the 50% he doesn't fire I don't see why any of them would stick around. Especially since he is nuking work from home when all of these people should be able to easily get work from home jobs elsewhere. I mean if I know that good chance I get fired on Friday anyway why even bother pulling all nighters when you can be applying to new jobs on company time and slow roll this stupid $8 bucks thing to stick it to his dumb rear end.

My company fired 10% of the global workforce and it absolutely nuked morale and nobody does poo poo cause they're busy polishing their CVs (as they should be). I would already be gone if it wasn't for WFH and the relative easiness of my job. 50% and no WFH should be terminal

ManBoyChef
Aug 1, 2019

Deadbeat Dad



When I worked for comcast we had this problem. I did remote tech support and they laid off a lot of the workforce. I am not sure of the percentage. Basically they just ensured that the call volume you were taking was back to back calls so you had no time between calls to input the information that you get at the end of the call. They did this to save money I guess but what it lead to was widespread dissatisfaction of customers dealing with extremely stressed out underpaid workers. They also expected the people doing tech support, you know the people that customers call because their product they are paying for is broken, to try to sell things to the customers and then put you on disciplinary probation when you could not. There was a culture of the managers basically making employees feel like they were the only ones failing at this. Eventually, some of us began sending private messages and asking eachother about this and all of us were failing at it. Most of the time customers have no where else to go because of monopolies on ISPs. They also were rolling out metered data plan because so many people were cutting the cable.

The people running these companies are extremely greedy and think they know what it will take to make them profitable for their shareholders. They probably look at customer experience and employee quality of life as not mattering too much in comparison. Elon is no different. He is extremely short sighted and does not value his employees for the value they create.

Meatball
Mar 2, 2003

That's a Spicy Meatball

Pillbug

ManBoyChef posted:


Elon is no different. He is extremely short sighted and does not value his employees for the value they create.

I'm pretty sure he thinks these employees don't create *any* value. He thinks he can maintain the same profitability with 75% headcount. The only way he can think that is if he believes those 75% didn't actually do anything.

I will laugh if th $8 thing isn't implemented because his workers expect to be fired and are working on theur resumes. I also find it hilarious that his $8 price point was determined based on haggling with Stephen King. I hope he tweets at king next week about it and king deletes his account in response.

DarkCrawler
Apr 6, 2009

by vyelkin

Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:

Musk moving rapidly to cut costs and raise more money from Twitter.

Moving up the subscription plan release date and firing half of all Twitter staff after they already fired 25% earlier.

Not sure how ending work from home is going to save costs, but :shrug:

https://twitter.com/sarahfrier/status/1587967043604602880

Liz Truss - the business edition.

Leon Trotsky 2012
Aug 27, 2009

YOU CAN TRUST ME!*


*Israeli Government-affiliated poster

Meatball posted:

I'm pretty sure he thinks these employees don't create *any* value. He thinks he can maintain the same profitability with 75% headcount. The only way he can think that is if he believes those 75% didn't actually do anything.

I will laugh if th $8 thing isn't implemented because his workers expect to be fired and are working on theur resumes. I also find it hilarious that his $8 price point was determined based on haggling with Stephen King. I hope he tweets at king next week about it and king deletes his account in response.

To be fair, he is also shutting down and firing everyone from some of the Twitter divisions that the public don't see and likely aren't profitable, such as the Health Science Division, the A.I. ethics division, and human resources.

I have no clue what the actual impact of those cuts will be in the grand scheme of things for both Twitter and the world (not my area of expertise and I don't think a lot of their work was public, so you couldn't really guess), but those likely weren't making any money and won't impact the end-users of Twitter. A huge chunk of the firings are supposed to be from the main Twitter team, though.

Oracle
Oct 9, 2004

Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:

To be fair, he is also shutting down and firing everyone from some of the Twitter divisions that the public don't see and likely aren't profitable, such as the Health Science Division, the A.I. ethics division, and human resources.

I have no clue what the actual impact of those cuts will be in the grand scheme of things for both Twitter and the world (not my area of expertise and I don't think a lot of their work was public, so you couldn't really guess), but those likely weren't making any money and won't impact the end-users of Twitter. A huge chunk of the firings are supposed to be from the main Twitter team, though.

If you think the health science division (likely the ones fighting antivax/pandemic misinfo) and AI ethics (hey guys how about we NOT feed the insecure teenage girls thinspo account recs?) weren’t doing anything the public would notice if it were gone I got a nice bridge to sell you cheap.

Leon Trotsky 2012
Aug 27, 2009

YOU CAN TRUST ME!*


*Israeli Government-affiliated poster

Oracle posted:

If you think the health science division (likely the ones fighting antivax/pandemic misinfo) and AI ethics (hey guys how about we NOT feed the insecure teenage girls thinspo account recs?) weren’t doing anything the public would notice if it were gone I got a nice bridge to sell you cheap.

The vaccine misinfo efforts were part of the content moderation team (which is also getting major cuts). Twitter's health science division is mostly partnering with schools and doctors to incorporate technology into healthcare and something about "using machine-learning to improve patient outcomes and information."

Mendrian
Jan 6, 2013

Yeah the reality is that Twitter is a massive content platform; like Youtube or Facebook, they don't generate revenue from sales, really, it's about ad space and the reach of that ad space. You generate value by making sure lots of people use your platform and that ads can reach people efficiently. Your ability to find and retain users is 50% of that and your algorithm to reach users is the other 50%. If your algorithm sucks and actively drives users away, that's real bad because you're eating your own lunch from both directions. And unlike Youtube, Twitter feels much more replaceable.

Cranappleberry
Jan 27, 2009
gonna laugh if the AI Ethics Team is not just a load-bearing part of the company but also the thin shield holding back Chaos from reclaiming this plane

haveblue
Aug 15, 2005



Toilet Rascal
Also feels like gutting the human resources division during a period of massive and disruptive turnover in every department is a bad idea but I'm not a galaxy brain billionaire

Leon Trotsky 2012
Aug 27, 2009

YOU CAN TRUST ME!*


*Israeli Government-affiliated poster

haveblue posted:

Also feels like gutting the human resources division during a period of massive and disruptive turnover in every department is a bad idea but I'm not a galaxy brain billionaire

If you have 50% fewer employees, then you only need half the human resources.

:thunk:

FlamingLiberal
Jan 18, 2009

Would you like to play a game?



Elon has a long history of not giving two shits about labor laws; this is actually consistent for him

evilweasel
Aug 24, 2002

ManBoyChef posted:

The people running these companies are extremely greedy and think they know what it will take to make them profitable for their shareholders. They probably look at customer experience and employee quality of life as not mattering too much in comparison. Elon is no different. He is extremely short sighted and does not value his employees for the value they create.

so here's the thing about loading $13b of debt onto a company that has $1b of interest payments per year: suddenly you don't have an option except to be short sighted. it turns the company's cashflows into something like blood: it doesn't really matter if you have more than enough blood today, and more than enough blood a week from now, if tomorrow you don't have enough. you die.

musk is not making the short-sighted decisions that dumb CEOs make when they are trying to juice shareholder value in the near terms and/or junior execs doing Things They Take Credit For. they are going to wind up with similar results, but they're from a fundamentally different place.

musk cannot afford to make long-term decisions because he must get twitter to generate $1 billion of free cash flow per year, very fast - just to keep up with the interest payments. this is why highly leveraged companies (highly leveraged means, basically, it has a ton of debt compared to its real value) make bad decisions. their "cost of capital" - what they have to pay in interest to get a dollar - is very high, so an employee that generates a reasonable return on the costs of employing that employee may be just not worth it to the company after you factor that in. it's why leveraged buyouts result in companies getting sold off for parts and other seemingly stupid decisions where value is destroyed. the reason their "cost of capital" is so high is that when you lend money you are (generally) last behind the existing creditors - so a highly leveraged company can't really take out new debt except at extortionate interest rates and/or by stealing collateral from their existing lenders.

theoretically, twitter should not be a highly leveraged company, since theoretically if you're buying it for $44b it should be worth $44b. but, uh, lol. twitter's actual value is $13b or less because it can't actually support that level of debt without crashing and burning, and is as a result hilariously overleveraged.

Kavros
May 18, 2011

sleep sleep sleep
fly fly post post
sleep sleep sleep

evilweasel posted:

so here's the thing about loading $13b of debt onto a company that has $1b of interest payments per year: suddenly you don't have an option except to be short sighted. it turns the company's cashflows into something like blood: it doesn't really matter if you have more than enough blood today, and more than enough blood a week from now, if tomorrow you don't have enough. you die.

musk is not making the short-sighted decisions that dumb CEOs make when they are trying to juice shareholder value in the near terms and/or junior execs doing Things They Take Credit For. they are going to wind up with similar results, but they're from a fundamentally different place.

musk cannot afford to make long-term decisions because he must get twitter to generate $1 billion of free cash flow per year, very fast - just to keep up with the interest payments. this is why highly leveraged companies (highly leveraged means, basically, it has a ton of debt compared to its real value) make bad decisions. their "cost of capital" - what they have to pay in interest to get a dollar - is very high, so an employee that generates a reasonable return on the costs of employing that employee may be just not worth it to the company after you factor that in. it's why leveraged buyouts result in companies getting sold off for parts and other seemingly stupid decisions where value is destroyed. the reason their "cost of capital" is so high is that when you lend money you are (generally) last behind the existing creditors - so a highly leveraged company can't really take out new debt except at extortionate interest rates and/or by stealing collateral from their existing lenders.

theoretically, twitter should not be a highly leveraged company, since theoretically if you're buying it for $44b it should be worth $44b. but, uh, lol. twitter's actual value is $13b or less because it can't actually support that level of debt without crashing and burning, and is as a result hilariously overleveraged.

On top of that, we're talking about something that has never managed the kind of profitability to handle Musk's required payments, and could only reach it through actions that pump the short-term up at the cost of all the rest of the term.

Musk is probably going to do whatever desperate stopgap measures he can throw at the crisis to have enough blood tomorrow, but in a way which functionally guarantees that it doesn't sustain long past that. Moderation quality implosions, spam containment collapses, an "invitation to reopen discourse" ends up filling the whole environment with terrible slurs and harassments, more and more invasive advertising to shore up revenue gaps resulting in posters slowly dropping off from mental frustration at the ad quantity, terrible new "buy a checkmark" ideas imploding and removing whatever semblance of poster qualification twitter even had, etc

A competent businessperson would have trouble coming up with ideas to keep the whole thing going. Musk is not competent in this affair at all.

Jaxyon
Mar 7, 2016
I’m just saying I would like to see a man beat a woman in a cage. Just to be sure.
Very Smart Business Knowers who on twitter who realize that cutting literally half of a company's workforce is a good thing actually.

cat botherer
Jan 6, 2022

I am interested in most phases of data processing.

Jaxyon posted:

Very Smart Business Knowers who on twitter who realize that cutting literally half of a company's workforce is a good thing actually.
Eh, I'm not sure you really need thousands of people to run twitter. The moderation and such sure, but that's not what dominates the present headcount as it stands. Needing that many people for a website and lovely phone app is just because of snoballing complexity of the intertwined social and technological bullshit, which begets yet more bullshit.

Jaxyon
Mar 7, 2016
I’m just saying I would like to see a man beat a woman in a cage. Just to be sure.

cat botherer posted:

Eh, I'm not sure you really need thousands of people to run twitter. The moderation and such sure, but that's not what dominates the present headcount as it stands. Needing that many people for a website and lovely phone app is just because of snoballing complexity of the intertwined social and technological bullshit, which begets yet more bullshit.

My person, there is zero companies that will run well after you cut straight up 50% of the workforce and believing differently is swallowing some Manager propaganda.

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cat botherer
Jan 6, 2022

I am interested in most phases of data processing.

Jaxyon posted:

My person, there is zero companies that will run well after you cut straight up 50% of the workforce and believing differently is swallowing some Manager propaganda.
Oh yeah, it'll completely fall apart. It's like how a big Rube Goldberg machine stops working when you remove the toaster.

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