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Tuna-Fish posted:500 tons is really not a lot of ship to carry 8 harpoons. That boat basically consists of engine, missiles, and things needed to support firing of the missiles. The Pegasus-class patrol boats were like half that and carried 8 Harpoons. I wish we had kept those around (to give to Ukraine now).
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Nov 3, 2022 06:50
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https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1588100657394745344 Russia's withdrawing (at least partly?) from Kherson https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1588101395441483779?s=20&t=L1HHEEUXIkwtYxSoM2mDLQ plot thickens: https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1588107211837956096?s=20&t=L1HHEEUXIkwtYxSoM2mDLQ Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 11:56 on Nov 3, 2022 |
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Nov 3, 2022 11:47
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Herstory Begins Now posted:Russia's withdrawing (at least partly?) from Kherson This rumour is everywhere today https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1588103981108273154 https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1588094632336007168 https://twitter.com/NLwartracker/status/1588113705807581184 Should start seeing evidence of Ukrainian advances soon if it's true
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Nov 3, 2022 12:29
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Incredible if they're really gone. What a way to betray the 87% of people who voted for annexation to Russia! It would be really good news if the city was saved from fighting. Although as the Russian strategy is to destroy Ukrainian infrastructure, would they really leave everything intact as they left...
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Nov 3, 2022 12:40
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Nenonen posted:Incredible if they're really gone. What a way to betray the 87% of people who voted for annexation to Russia! Above and beyond any commands to purposefully destroy infrastructure I'm imagining the soldiers that were stationed there and just withdrew were far, far past ripping the copper out of the walls to loot it. I won't be surprised if it's found to be functionally nonexistent as a modern city.
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Nov 3, 2022 12:49
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The fact the buildings still exist and are structurally intact is still huge, roads are clear and clean, etc. Sure they would have looted what they can where they can but their is very little you can do as destructive as modern warfare.
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Nov 3, 2022 12:56
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This seems too good to be true
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Nov 3, 2022 12:56
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Nenonen posted:Incredible if they're really gone. What a way to betray the 87% of people who voted for annexation to Russia!
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Nov 3, 2022 12:57
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Nenonen posted:Although as the Russian strategy is to destroy Ukrainian infrastructure, would they really leave everything intact as they left... I'm expecting everything to have been mined given their history in this conflict. That way they are going to tie EOD/sappers in cleaning up for a long while and remove them from the fight.
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Nov 3, 2022 12:58
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Nothingtoseehere posted:The fact the buildings still exist and are structurally intact is still huge, roads are clear and clean, etc. Sure they would have looted what they can where they can but their is very little you can do as destructive as modern warfare. Well ya, it is a Russian city after all.
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Nov 3, 2022 13:03
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This all very much seems to be confirming they are retreating to the other side of the river before mud season/winter sets in. This does unfortunately seem a more planned retreat than most of the Russian retreats we've heard about so far, in that so far we haven't heard about them leaving behind a whole bunch of equipment and vehicles, although only seen images from a bunch of abandoned checkpoints. Very possible they left stuff else where. What ever the situation, very good that it looks like the Ukraine army won't have to face a whole bunch urban street fighting to free the city though.
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Nov 3, 2022 13:03
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Eh, maybe the rank and file officers just ignored kremlin orders and bargained a clean getaway with Ukraine.
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Nov 3, 2022 13:04
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OddObserver posted:There are pictures of a bunch of cell towers having been blown up ... I think it's the water and sewage and power plants and substations that matter the most for making a city livable, and that take the longest to repair if they are demolished. This would also be an explicit war crime.
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Nov 3, 2022 13:07
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Charlz Guybon posted:This seems too good to be true Possibly. While it means Kherson will not be destroyed, many more Russian soldiers will be waiting for them on the other side of the Dnipro. In addition the Russian high command is willing and able to perform actions that while not so favorable on the political side, actually benefit their fighting forces. I am curious to why all those officials/reports were stating the last few days that the Russians were infact reinforcing positions in and around Kherson. Dick Ripple fucked around with this message at 13:10 on Nov 3, 2022 |
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Nov 3, 2022 13:07
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Tafferling posted:Eh, maybe the rank and file officers just ignored kremlin orders and bargained a clean getaway with Ukraine. For a small town I could see that, for a large city for all the Russian troops to go unless they all thought the city was going to be immediately taken -like within hours- than I just do see that. Seem like they would just be too many people for that to happen with it being an order from someone at least sort of high up. Dick Ripple posted:I am curious to why all those officials/reports were stating the last few days that the Russians were infact reinforcing positions in and around Kherson. I mean different people leading the Russian army not really knowing what others doing the same are doing seems the most likely reason for this. Some sort of disinformation campaign seems a bit to intelligent. dr_rat fucked around with this message at 13:14 on Nov 3, 2022 |
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Nov 3, 2022 13:08
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Dick Ripple posted:I am curious to why all those officials/reports were stating the last few days that the Russians were infact reinforcing positions in and around Kherson. Fog of war and maskirovka? Remains to be confirmed, of course. But such is the nature of every report that is not coming directly from a reliable witness.
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Nov 3, 2022 13:11
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Both could be true. Doing a fighting retreat is not easy, and the short term Russian plan to do so could involve reinforcing the front line.
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Nov 3, 2022 13:13
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TheDeadlyShoe posted:Both could be true. Doing a fighting retreat is not easy, and the short term Russian plan to do so could involve reinforcing the front line. Or just making it look like you're ferrying troops to Kherson rather than from because you can't fully hide such big movements, to prevent pursue.
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Nov 3, 2022 13:15
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I'd feel safer for Kherson if Nova Kakhovka was in Ukrainian hands. Also, it looks like the UAF has managed to get close enough to Kherson to trigger this rout.  (Apologize for the phone posting)
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Nov 3, 2022 13:22
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I'd say it's real. Because when any OTHER Russian forces read about it. they are going to bug out too, or surrender to the first Ukrainian solider they see. The only question is...will they blow the dam? I could see reasons they would and reasons they would not. I could see them retreating over it, but letting the dam stay up to stop a flood of their own defenses. I could also see them blowing the dam because they are idiots.
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Nov 3, 2022 13:22
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Freedman has done another really good blog, this time dissecting 'hey why does nobody who says negotiations are important ever analyse Putin's position?' Spoiler: it's because that makes it obvious why negotiations aren't happening https://samf.substack.com/p/why-putin-prefers-war-war-to-jaw?utm_source=twitter&sd=pf
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Nov 3, 2022 13:24
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I really hope this is true, and they'll leave. But I'm also scared that now that the city is cleared of Russian military, it might become fair game for artillery reprisals or something like that?
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Nov 3, 2022 13:25
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mrfart posted:I really hope this is true, and they'll leave. But I'm also scared that now that the city is cleared of Russian military, it might become fair game for artillery reprisals or something like that? I mean if you want to destroy something it's about a million times more efficient to do it while you occupy the place, rather than shooting things at it from a distance. Hence earlier posts about whether they would leave critical infrastructure intact or not if they leave.
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Nov 3, 2022 13:34
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mrfart posted:I really hope this is true, and they'll leave. But I'm also scared that now that the city is cleared of Russian military, it might become fair game for artillery reprisals or something like that? Most likely yes. See Nikopol - Energodar daily across the river shelling
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Nov 3, 2022 13:35
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If Russia is abandoning Kherson, does that mean that Ukraine's got the entire northern bank of the Dnipro? I admit I haven't been following the maps super closely, given how much they had appeared to have stalled out, but I was under the impression that they were still a ways out from really approaching Kherson itself.
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Nov 3, 2022 13:42
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The Lord of Hats posted:If Russia is abandoning Kherson, does that mean that Ukraine's got the entire northern bank of the Dnipro? I admit I haven't been following the maps super closely, given how much they had appeared to have stalled out, but I was under the impression that they were still a ways out from really approaching Kherson itself. Ukrainian opsec around Kherson has been so tight that it's been hard to get information around movements. The maps have barely any movement unless the Russians had reported it, and with the new restrictions on reporting the special operation, they aren't going to report any losses. War Mapper on SOAR has had multiple maps where they go "nothing to report" because the flow of information has slowed down.
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Nov 3, 2022 13:50
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Kings and Generals video: Attack on the Kerch Bridge - Russian Invasion DOCUMENTARY https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i4gebic_Wnc The last months advance- I hadn't realized how much ground Ukraine had gained in the north.
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Nov 3, 2022 14:11
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Dick Ripple posted:Possibly. This was the case during the retreat from Kyiv as well. There were a lot of rumours of increased Russian troop levels and shelling, then a few days later all the Russians had left. Russia has been quite good at retreating throughout the war, Kharkiv being the one big exception.
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Nov 3, 2022 14:22
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Huge number of rumours flying around - until I see geolocated images of Ukrainian troops in the city and raising the flag, I'm withholding judgement. But if the reports of Russia troops withdrawing from Kherson city are genuinely true, it would be hugely significant. In military terms it would likely save both sides from a potentially hugely costly urban meatgrinder battle, the horrors of which would be even worse during winter. It would also (to an extent) spare the remaining civilians there from being caught in the crossfire (though I fully expect Russia to spitefully bombard the poo poo out of the city for months to come). Whilst it may have military benefits for Russia, shortening their tenuous supply lines and enabling them to use the Dnipro itself as their main defensive barrier, its also a massively symbolic political climbdown. Kherson is one of the biggest cities that fell to them - and it seemed to fall relatively quickly and easily (as opposed to one of the other few big cities to fall, Mariupol). To withdraw from it without a fight - the capital of one of the recently annexed territories? Yikes, going to be difficult to spin this one. I wonder if the plan is to try to hold the line at the Dnipro, and try to push for that as a new 'natural border'
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Nov 3, 2022 14:24
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Nenonen posted:I mean if you want to destroy something it's about a million times more efficient to do it while you occupy the place, rather than shooting things at it from a distance. Hence earlier posts about whether they would leave critical infrastructure intact or not if they leave. I mean but if you start the shelling when Ukraine army gets into town, you can kill two birds with one stone, destroy the city and hurt the army. It's a simple enough plan that both sides have thought of it I'm sure, but what happens now? Ukraine needs to send in some experts to de-mine the residential buildings and secure the town border. But then they risk artillery strikes on the city, making it actually more dangerous. I guess they still go in, it's not like a lack of soldiers in a city has stopped Russia from bombing it to hell and back if last months' rocket strikes on Kiev are anything to go by. However with the river blocking the say, this could lead to a very ugly stalemate. God I hope there's a breakthrough for Ukraine that allows them to secure the city before it's turned into rubble 
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Nov 3, 2022 14:28
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The Ukrainian military is playing it cautious regarding the supposed retreat as well -https://www.radiosvoboda.org/a/news-pivden-evakuatsiya-rf/32113903.html https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1588152800856473602?s=20&t=Za6_42dgYsDekgxgSRoUCQ Translated excerpt: quote:"This may be a manifestation of provocation in order to create the impression that settlements have been abandoned, that it is safe to enter them. Considering the fact that they have been preparing for street battles for a long time, the way they position their units, we are aware of the planned tactics and should not be in a hurry to rejoice. It is necessary to understand that a hybrid war involves such information leaks, attacks that can be calculated to weaken the troops," she said on the air of the national telethon.
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Nov 3, 2022 14:31
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Kikas posted:I mean but if you start the shelling when Ukraine army gets into town, you can kill two birds with one stone, destroy the city and hurt the army. It's a simple enough plan that both sides have thought of it I'm sure, but what happens now? Ukraine needs to send in some experts to de-mine the residential buildings and secure the town border. But then they risk artillery strikes on the city, making it actually more dangerous. It's a big city. You make it sound like Russians know exactly what Ukrainians are doing there even after retreat, which they don't. Sure they can bombard the city, but it has nothing to do with what Ukrainian military does.
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Nov 3, 2022 14:36
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Bar Ran Dun posted:2000 lbs -short ton, ST Wow this is incredibly helpful thank you!
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Nov 3, 2022 14:40
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Nenonen posted:Incredible if they're really gone. What a way to betray the 87% of people who voted for annexation to Russia! This is ominous to me. Quite possible they’re leaving in order to lure in Ukrainian forces to retake the city then bomb the utter poo poo out of it.
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Nov 3, 2022 14:44
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https://t.me/s/RKadyrov_95 That's an interesting shuffle The head of Chechnya Ramzan Kadyrov said that his right hand, dear BROTHER and commander of the Akhmat special unit Apty ALAUDINOV, was appointed deputy commander of the 2nd army corps of the People's Militia of the Luhansk People's Republic (LPR).
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Nov 3, 2022 14:55
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Oracle posted:This is ominous to me. Quite possible they’re leaving in order to lure in Ukrainian forces to retake the city then bomb the utter poo poo out of it. Sometimes, the simple surface level appeance of things is the real deal. This move behind the Dnipro was the logical military move for months, doubly so once the Ukrainians got their hands on fancy US artillery to smash their crossings. The Ukrainians are of course going to be cautious, what is there to gain by running headlong in pursuit? It might not happen all at once and they might pull back to prepared positions as stepping stones but the indications they are leaving have been going on for some time now.
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Nov 3, 2022 14:56
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MikeC posted:what is there to gain by running headlong in pursuit? said German leadership at Dunkirk.
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Nov 3, 2022 14:59
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Oracle posted:This is ominous to me. Quite possible they’re leaving in order to lure in Ukrainian forces to retake the city then bomb the utter poo poo out of it. Eh, this feels like looking for things to worry about. If the city's undefended then Ukraine won't need to commit many forces to retake it, and cities are generally excellent cover for military units. If you want to shell units, you don't need to hand them a city first. I think it's just that holding the city was untenable for Russia's forces, so they've fallen back to more defensible lines. Sure, be cautious and make use of recon as you retake the city, watching for ambushes, traps and minefields, but that goes without saying in any advance.
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Nov 3, 2022 15:00
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The Lord of Hats posted:If Russia is abandoning Kherson, does that mean that Ukraine's got the entire northern bank of the Dnipro? I admit I haven't been following the maps super closely, given how much they had appeared to have stalled out, but I was under the impression that they were still a ways out from really approaching Kherson itself. Kherson becomes a trap where you die instead of territory you hold if the P-47 road between it and Nova Kakhovka is cut. Ukraine has been slowly inching towards that road from the northeast. If Russia has indeed chosen to withdraw, it would imply that their leadership felt that they cannot defend it and chose to withdraw before it turns into a huge disaster that eats all the troops in it. The stuff seen from it so far seems to imply a successful, orderly withdrawal.
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Nov 3, 2022 15:06
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Bar Ran Dun posted:1000 kgs - metric ton, MT, 1 m^3 of water at 1.0000 apparent density in air at 15C
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Nov 3, 2022 15:10
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