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Dr. Arbitrary posted:I just got this in the mail, anyone want to guess what it's all about? I've heard of people in other states getting them too, targetted at their particular candidates. Pretty gross. I think they should be required to put THIS IS A PAID POLITICAL ADVERTISEMENT on the envelope of anything sent by a PAC.
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Nov 5, 2022 02:16
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zenguitarman posted:I dream about going around at night and taking down people's stupid Trump bullshit but I don't want to get shot they would definitely churn your white creamy rear end into butter. It's a crime in every state, and legal grounds for self-defense in 23 states.
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Nov 5, 2022 02:19
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Dr. Arbitrary posted:I just got this in the mail, anyone want to guess what it's all about? I had one in my mailbox today (PA-18)
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Nov 5, 2022 02:52
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https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-case-for-a-democratic-surprise-on-election-night/ This is a fun little story addressing a lot of the coping libs have been doing with the polls. If you want to feel a little better, go pull up a random number generator to see what 45% and 15% chance looks like.
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Nov 5, 2022 04:49
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BIG-DICK-BUTT-gently caress posted:they would definitely churn your white creamy rear end into butter. It's a crime in every state, and legal grounds for self-defense in 23 states. That, and it isn't like it really accomplishes anything. Oh boy, you mildly inconvenienced a chud and validated their persecution complex.
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Nov 5, 2022 05:23
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Automata 10 Pack posted:https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-case-for-a-democratic-surprise-on-election-night/ The creative writing of the liberal and conservative Nate personas is extremely cringe, per for the course when 538 strays from its lane to punditry.
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Nov 5, 2022 07:22
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yronic heroism posted:The creative writing of the liberal and conservative Nate personas is extremely cringe, per for the course when 538 strays from its lane to punditry. Nate Silver and having new and weirder 11th hour election meltdowns go together like two things that always loving happen the weekend before a big US election.
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Nov 5, 2022 07:48
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I also got one (WI), do i get points for guessing abortion before I opened it? If you want a podcast about AMERICAN DREAM DEAD here you go.
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Nov 5, 2022 08:25
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Man, am I excited for tuesday. 2018 was kind of lame because it was obviously going to be a good year for the democrats. 2020 was kind of lame because it was going to be a weeks long process. It's time for a good old fashioned tossup election night.
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Nov 5, 2022 08:34
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Good news from Nevada. https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1588748515085164544 https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1588751831013896192 This year, mail just needs to be postmarked by election day but can arrive later. We have another weeks worth of potential mail dumps.
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Nov 5, 2022 08:50
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I just want to thank all of you, because it was a crummy week, and as a resident of Arizona, I'm dreading next week's elections. So reading almost an entire page worth of lawn puns definitely made the end of week a little better.
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Nov 5, 2022 09:02
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SimonChris posted:Good news from Nevada. Oh god we're going to all be F5ing the Nevada state election results page for several days aren't we?
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Nov 5, 2022 09:25
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SourKraut posted:I just want to thank all of you, because it was a crummy week, and as a resident of Arizona, I'm dreading next week's elections. So reading almost an entire page worth of lawn puns definitely made the end of week a little better. If it makes you feel better, Arizona is like reverse Nevada and the Dems.may over perform. Kelly is probably fine, and I personally think Lake's polls are a bit overrated - the sort of nutty right winger personality types turn off indies and might blunt the late break they're (prolly) gonna make to the GOP on election day. That's why I am more pessimistic in Nevada, Laxalt is exactly the boring GOP type guy that indies and formerly embarrassed GOP types love in midterms and poo poo. edit: but the ultra pessimistic side thinks the insane ones mobilize the base and all the pretend embarrassed GOPers vote for them any way and Lake will win and so will Trump in 24 JosefStalinator fucked around with this message at 11:00 on Nov 5, 2022 |
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Nov 5, 2022 10:57
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https://twitter.com/kira_lerner/status/1588526548461551616 Let's hope these idiots do not actually make it to the polls in time.
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Nov 5, 2022 11:07
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https://mobile.twitter.com/ElectProject/status/1588732531687710721
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Nov 5, 2022 12:11
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SimonChris posted:https://twitter.com/kira_lerner/status/1588526548461551616 Just to make sure I understand this: in order to disrupt efforts to "find and/or create" ballots, they intend to wait 3+ hours in line to vote. Even if this were not based entirely on a lie, you could just look at turnout numbers by precinct and adjust accordingly.  All that's going to happen is these people will see the line filled with people like them, with presumably similar political preferences, and let them extrapolate that to the electorate at large, with the conclusion being that the result is illegitimate. Oh.
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Nov 5, 2022 12:15
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Tnega posted:Just to make sure I understand this: in order to disrupt efforts to "find and/or create" ballots, they intend to wait 3+ hours in line to vote. Even if this were not based entirely on a lie, you could just look at turnout numbers by precinct and adjust accordingly. Or they all show up too late and think they're being targeted and forbidden from voting to further radicalize them.
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Nov 5, 2022 12:22
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SimonChris posted:https://twitter.com/kira_lerner/status/1588526548461551616 Voluntarily self-imposing the worst voting conditions created by your team to gently caress over the other team. We're going for some real 4D chess moves in MAGA Nation. Can't wait to see whether the Panhandle or South Florida has the longer lines getting court orders to keep the polls open.
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Nov 5, 2022 12:27
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Gyges posted:Voluntarily self-imposing the worst voting conditions created by your team to gently caress over the other team. We're going for some real 4D chess moves in MAGA Nation. It's a flex, they're basically bragging by doing this I think
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Nov 5, 2022 12:29
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zenguitarman posted:I dream about going around at night and taking down people's stupid Trump bullshit but I don't want to get shot why not just burn their house down instead. Teach them a real lesson. Honestly just kidding though. No one really deserves hardship of that nature just for having abhorrent views. We have a guy that has a giant trump won sign next to a lets go brandon sign next to a hang mike pence etc etc....He really has made his house like a qanon billboard. I was watching some raw video of people interviewing trump supporters at his last rally. It is amazing to me that these folks have internalized that Trump is somehow a very godly person and that Biden is a devil worshipper when the reality is he is a catholic that attends mass every week. They all really believe the right wing talking points and outright lies. It is astounding. These people are too far gone and you are never going to reach them on a policy level, you are never going to change their minds by improving their lives and you most definitely are never going get them to admit that Trump or any other Trumper has ever done anything wrong.
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Nov 5, 2022 13:24
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Tnega posted:Just to make sure I understand this: in order to disrupt efforts to "find and/or create" ballots, they intend to wait 3+ hours in line to vote. Even if this were not based entirely on a lie, you could just look at turnout numbers by precinct and adjust accordingly. Confusing your own voters to own the libs apparently is now a strategy.
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Nov 5, 2022 13:35
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ManBoyChef posted:Biden is a devil worshipper when the reality is he is a catholic that attends mass every week.  Same thing, depending on how deep down the rabbit hole you want to go.
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Nov 5, 2022 13:35
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Mooseontheloose posted:Confusing your own voters to own the libs apparently is now a strategy. Honestly I can't tell if it's just brain worms forming an ouroboros, or an actual plan where winning "proves" all your voter suppression dreams are totally fine and losing causes a paranoia cascade of stolen election radicalization.
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Nov 5, 2022 14:00
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Its brainworms. There is no intelligent reason, plan, or rationalization of any kind whatsoever that makes it a good idea to discourage early voting and advise voting as late on election day as possible. The courts have no patience at all, even including the supreme court, for stolen election bullshit. Trump didn't like voting by mail, and so his idiocy needed to be rationalized and integrated into being the correct path to take somehow. With how much the GOP usually depends on elderly voters, it is actually more important for them to lock in their votes early than it is for the Democrats, which makes it doubly stupid. We are lucky that they have insanely discouraged early voting; they would be even more difficult to defeat if they had a widespread campaign to get their older voters to mail in their ballots so they could narrow their focus on turning out their voters who haven't voted yet on election day.
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Nov 5, 2022 14:12
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SourKraut posted:I just want to thank all of you, because it was a crummy week, and as a resident of Arizona, I'm dreading next week's elections. So reading almost an entire page worth of lawn puns definitely made the end of week a little better. Get out and canvass. Phone bank. Volunteer to be a poll watcher. There’s lots you can do to help you don’t have to be a bystander.
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Nov 5, 2022 15:01
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Rigel posted:Its brainworms. There is no intelligent reason, plan, or rationalization of any kind whatsoever that makes it a good idea to discourage early voting and advise voting as late on election day as possible. The courts have no patience at all, even including the supreme court, for stolen election bullshit. Trump didn't like voting by mail, and so his idiocy needed to be rationalized and integrated into being the correct path to take somehow. Yeah, they've got very little idea of how voting actually works and they've internalised the rhetoric that's usually selectively deployed to suppress Democrat voters, another case where the lunatics are running the asylum and the base has swallowed the ad copy and ran with it. They're running entirely on spite and anger. Unfortunately they only need to get lucky once, and they're getting unlimited retries.
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Nov 5, 2022 15:36
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Obviously if you vote as late as possible the Deep State won't have time to throw away your vote 
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Nov 5, 2022 15:39
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ManBoyChef posted:why not just burn their house down instead. Teach them a real lesson. It makes a good point. Trump, the alt right, the toxic bigotry and willingness for violence against minorities... it's a horrible problem and seems on track to just get worse. Yet I hear and see people treat it as THE problem rather than a symptom. We're already repeating elements of the past, and we've been heading to this point for some time. Yet, "As soon as we sweep the democrats into forever majorities, we'll beat the chuds and restore a strong republican party!" Strong delusional brunch energy. Like somebody falling into lava in a video game, and repeatedly reverting to the save where they're at the peak of their fatal jump. As one side openly embraces a violent police surveilance state cracking down on "criminals" and targeting "degenerates" (we all know who they're after), the other side is willing to compromise by awarding half of the requested police state (but they'll also say you're gay for trump, and award themselves some points for that GOTTEM). Even my mom (who has gone from non political most of my life, to hardcore anti Trumper dem, to frustrated Bernie leftist) once suggested to me that she'd read something about letting the air out of tires of gas guzzling trucks in your neighborhood. Guess she thought since I talk about environmentalism with aggressive rhetoric it'd be right up my alley. But annoying your neighbors isn't strength and is the opposite of progress in this scenario. If there even is a "win condition" for leftists going into the future, surely it involves collaboration and cooperation amongst the little people. Yes, openly hateful chuds are probably beyond your ability to fix or convert, I think we all have an answer for them in mind if poo poo hit the fan. But picking dumb little fights with your neighbors who are likely as powerless as you is laughable. So yeah, unless/until you're ready to "burn somebody's house down", it would be far better to try to expose them to leftist ideas, literally attempt to deprogram them. I totally understand this this a subjective contextual ask depending on whether you're a visible minority or particularily vulnerable for whatever reason... and also how far gone/unforgivably hateful the individual in question is. There are people in town I've given up on, people at work I don't even start with, and community members (whom I suspect I would despise if I knew their real opinions) that I have to interact and do business with regardless. Still, as a tall straight white dude, it kinda feels like my duty to at least have a go at these dialogues, and might be the only thing I even do that could be considered helpful. For now.
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Nov 5, 2022 15:48
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Nevada starting to look okay. https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1588923786832666624 Now it is just D-heavy mail dumps until election day and then more during the week.
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Nov 5, 2022 17:18
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Early voted today. Turnout was insane. Had to wait over an hour and the line was considerably longer when I left. Wake County, NC. The Michelle Morrow crazy person was there. But there were also people with big laminated binders filled with her J6 and crazy tweets and poo poo. Just silently holding them up near her. Interestingly this is the first time I've voted where the people actively are campaigning to the line of voters. Technically there is a 50ft rule from the entrance to the polling place... But that accounted for... Maybe 1% of the line length or less? It was gross and uncomfortable.
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Nov 5, 2022 17:40
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Is the early voting line long because there are less places to vote?
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Nov 5, 2022 17:46
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smackfu posted:Is the early voting line long because there are less places to vote? I don't think so. I'm in line in a different county in NC. We have the same number of early vote sites as usual and I haven't seen a line this long since election day 2016. All the dorks around me are all excited about the turnout.
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Nov 5, 2022 19:03
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I did my poll worker training a couple of days ago and our local registrar also said that early turnout had been bananas, and ED turnout was expected to be bananas as well. Should be fun! But I wouldn't want be a pollster this year, absolutely nobody should have a huge amount of confidence in their turnout models.
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Nov 5, 2022 19:09
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Ghost Leviathan posted:Yeah, they've got very little idea of how voting actually works and they've internalised the rhetoric that's usually selectively deployed to suppress Democrat voters, another case where the lunatics are running the asylum and the base has swallowed the ad copy and ran with it. They're running entirely on spite and anger. I say this as a campaign consultant who has done campaigns for years. It goes against every principle of good campaigning. Confusing your voters and not constantly getting a stream of voters to go whenever they can is asking for trouble.
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Nov 5, 2022 19:10
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Quorum posted:I did my poll worker training a couple of days ago and our local registrar also said that early turnout had been bananas, and ED turnout was expected to be bananas as well. Should be fun! But I wouldn't want be a pollster this year, absolutely nobody should have a huge amount of confidence in their turnout models. Can't really determine anything on one precinct or even one state, but if nationally the turnout ends up being "bananas", that would completely rule out any possibility whatsoever of a red wave.
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Nov 5, 2022 19:17
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SimonChris posted:https://twitter.com/kira_lerner/status/1588526548461551616 This feels very much like "A cop has to tell you he's a cop if you ask him point blank"
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Nov 5, 2022 19:27
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smackfu posted:Is the early voting line long because there are less places to vote? There are also I believe less sites during early voting than there will be on election day, at least in my county.
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Nov 5, 2022 19:41
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Quorum posted:I did my poll worker training a couple of days ago and our local registrar also said that early turnout had been bananas, and ED turnout was expected to be bananas as well. Should be fun! But I wouldn't want be a pollster this year, absolutely nobody should have a huge amount of confidence in their turnout models. FWIW I've been hearing the same about turnout in my area (Richmond VA), by the numbers we're seeing something like 3x as many early votes than in 2018. That's despite there being 3 early voting places in the whole city and like 1 or 2 in each nearby county, they certainly don't make it convenient.
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Nov 5, 2022 20:11
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SimonChris posted:Good news from Nevada. As someone looking at this election from the outside (Europe), it seems odd to me that they would announce the results of early voting ahead of time. Or I guess these are just voter registrations, so it won't necessarily line up with the results exactly? That makes more sense, given the high number of independent voters reported here. Giving out that information well before election day still strikes me as being strange, but it does mean you can start analyzing and predicting beforehand, based on actual data.
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Nov 5, 2022 20:14
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Phlegmish posted:As someone looking at this election from the outside (Europe), it seems odd to me that they would announce the results of early voting ahead of time. Or I guess these are just voter registrations, so it won't necessarily line up with the results exactly? That makes more sense, given the high number of independent voters reported here. Giving out that information well before election day still strikes me as being strange, but it does mean you can start analyzing and predicting beforehand, based on actual data. It's all public record. Who, where, and when people voted are in a voter file. Your party registration is also in your public voter file (cause of primary voting). So you can extrapolate a lot from that just by asking election offices for the early vote voter file. edit: ALSO, I don't get 538 modeling that has Warnock under 50 percent but leading in most polls.
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Nov 5, 2022 20:21
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