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Skex posted:I'm honestly less concerned about congress as I am about Secretaries of State and state legislatures. Even if Republicans managed to take the Senate Biden being in the executive will keep them from doing too much damage. However we are one SCOTUS decision from an electoral apocalypse if they get the right SOS offices and state legislatures. Most of the Uber chud secretaries arnt doing well in the polls.
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Nov 8, 2022 00:52
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Dapper_Swindler posted:Most of the Uber chud secretaries arnt doing well in the polls. Arizona?
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Nov 8, 2022 00:55
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Oracle posted:Arizona? yeah i believe finicumin or whatever is losing too. surprised this place is so chill today. other place i follow is on "uber doom train" time, Dapper_Swindler fucked around with this message at 01:19 on Nov 8, 2022 |
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Nov 8, 2022 00:58
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Kavros posted:I have two wolves inside me Docs, can't go wrong with well made boots with good support for your feet. That being said, I'm basically in this mindset and preparing to live with uncertainty until at least the weekend again as in 2020.
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Nov 8, 2022 01:21
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Dapper_Swindler posted:yeah i believe finicumin or whatever is losing too. Plenty of time for uber doom train starting twenty four to twenty six hours from now, this is the time to worship at the altar of uncertainty  Also Elon Musk melting down is incredibly funny and that's a great distraction.
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Nov 8, 2022 01:28
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Dapper_Swindler posted:yeah i believe finicumin or whatever is losing too. finicumin? Like...tarp man?
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Nov 8, 2022 01:28
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Quorum posted:Plenty of time for uber doom train starting twenty four to twenty six hours from now, this is the time to worship at the altar of uncertainty oh i am sure. we wont know PA senate tomarrow or a couple other states probably. Angry_Ed posted:finicumin? Like...tarp man? no but basically.
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Nov 8, 2022 01:30
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Automata 10 Pack posted:That's usually the case, right? The incumbent in reelections has the advantage and gaining seats will be easier? At this point I would trust a loving tarot reading over 538's model.
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Nov 8, 2022 01:40
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Sodomy Hussein posted:I have seen some articles offering the opinion that if the Democrats only lose the House by a little, they feel good about reclaiming it in 2024, whether that's copium or not, I'll let others be the judge. This makes sense. If Republicans don't have a wave during peak inflation and market bottoms, this doesn't bode well for them for 2024.
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Nov 8, 2022 01:51
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Automata 10 Pack posted:That's usually the case, right? The incumbent in reelections has the advantage and gaining seats will be easier? isnt 538 let every insane pollster do whatever.
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Nov 8, 2022 01:52
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Dapper_Swindler posted:isnt 538 let every insane pollster do whatever. No, their whole thing compared to other poll aggregators is that they weight each poll based on the prior performance of the pollster, and they reweight the crosstabs for their idea of which demographics will turnout (which is how insane pollers get insane figures). Basically the "uncuck the polls" meme but for real. Civilized Fishbot fucked around with this message at 01:56 on Nov 8, 2022 |
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Nov 8, 2022 01:53
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Civilized Fishbot posted:No, their whole thing compared to other poll aggregators is that they weight each poll based on the prior performance of the pollster. that seems kinda dumb. like i get it but its dumb.
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Nov 8, 2022 01:55
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Dapper_Swindler posted:that seems kinda dumb. like i get it but its dumb Sure but it's probably the best way to do elections forecasting. The polls suck but the models based on income growth per annum and presidential approval ratings etc. are even worse.
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Nov 8, 2022 01:58
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Civilized Fishbot posted:Sure but it's probably the best way to do elections forecasting. The polls suck but the models based on income growth per annum and presidential approval ratings etc. are even worse. i mean arnt all these polls based on like .05 population too or some poo poo too.
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Nov 8, 2022 02:01
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538 is little more than a guess. Just chill out and watch the results.
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Nov 8, 2022 02:01
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Dapper_Swindler posted:i mean arnt all these polls based on like .05 population too or some poo poo too. You mean 5% of the US population? Way, way, way less than that. Anyway what matters isn't the sample size as a fraction of the whole population, just the sample size itself. For an individual poll the sample size is usually not awesome but if you take a shitton of polls and aggregate them then sample size is no longer your problem, the problem is predicting who's going to actually vote
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Nov 8, 2022 02:03
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A GOP-led House & Senate is more likely to happen than not. The opposite happening would be a massive surprise to me and probably paired with a turnout and suburban district flips that I have not felt coming.
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Nov 8, 2022 02:16
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Dapper_Swindler posted:
::Puffs pipe on the porch:: Easier to watch the world spin then to try pushin' it along.
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Nov 8, 2022 02:18
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Gerund posted:A GOP-led House & Senate is more likely to happen than not. The opposite happening would be a massive surprise to me and probably paired with a turnout and suburban district flips that I have not felt coming. oh the GOP is definitely taking the house.
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Nov 8, 2022 02:18
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The mega-chud across the streets from me took down their Thin Blue Line flag over the summer and, for the first time in the 10 years I’ve lived here, don’t even have a sign in their front yard. I choose to be that means chud enthusiasm is depressed this year (I know it’s probably not).
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Nov 8, 2022 02:19
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Anno posted:The mega-chud across the streets from me took down their Thin Blue Line flag over the summer and, for the first time in the 10 years I’ve lived here, don’t even have a sign in their front yard. I choose to be that means chud enthusiasm is depressed this year (I know it’s probably not). They're getting ready to unveil a dumber, more racist flag
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Nov 8, 2022 02:21
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Anno posted:The mega-chud across the streets from me took down their Thin Blue Line flag over the summer and, for the first time in the 10 years I’ve lived here, don’t even have a sign in their front yard. I choose to be that means chud enthusiasm is depressed this year (I know it’s probably not). probably more dumber and racist flag, but i do see slightly less chud poo poo.
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Nov 8, 2022 02:22
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Gerund posted:A GOP-led House & Senate is more likely to happen than not. The opposite happening would be a massive surprise to me and probably paired with a turnout and suburban district flips that I have not felt coming. I dunno in 2010 you could feel the Tea Party coming.
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Nov 8, 2022 02:22
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Mooseontheloose posted:I dunno in 2010 you could feel the Tea Party coming. Bargaining down the gain from 6 Senators and 63 Representatives to half of that is still GOP leading both bodies, because 2020 with all its turnout still left a very thin margin of incumbants.
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Nov 8, 2022 02:31
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Dapper_Swindler posted:isnt 538 let every insane pollster do whatever. 538 is the Rotten Tomatoes of US elections: a free for all shitshow of noise that is also somehow the industry standard.
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Nov 8, 2022 02:47
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nine-gear crow posted:538 is the Rotten Tomatoes of US elections: a free for all shitshow of noise that is also somehow the industry standard. idk. i just want fetterman to win, its the first time i genuinly liked a dude running for office and felt represented me and actually loving dresses like me, if fetterman wins and shapiro wins, i can be happy with the shitshow horror show. i guess i just dont want to feel alone or something. and i hope other Pennsylvanians feel like i do. Dapper_Swindler fucked around with this message at 02:59 on Nov 8, 2022 |
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Nov 8, 2022 02:57
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Be 538, write a thousand articles that I "wowie zowie, polls can be right ....... or wrong!!" Tighten up projections to coin toss day of election. Write a few more about what we have learned (polls can be right or wrong)
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Nov 8, 2022 02:58
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Dapper_Swindler posted:yeah i believe finicumin or whatever is losing too. https://i.imgur.com/66dGOAe.gifv   DOOOOOOOOOOOOOM!
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Nov 8, 2022 03:24
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Gatts posted:https://i.imgur.com/66dGOAe.gifv least new god of war hits tomarrow. plus other stupid poo poo i like.
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Nov 8, 2022 03:25
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Staluigi posted:Be 538, write a thousand articles that I "wowie zowie, polls can be right ....... or wrong!!" Tighten up projections to coin toss day of election. Write a few more about what we have learned (polls can be right or wrong) Don't forget to do all your ratings in a way that encourages partisan pollsters to go wild with whatever nonsense they want 364 days a year. Further, it's important to remember that it's better to never pick the actual winner, just so long as your wrong prediction is .1% closer to the final percentage than everyone who actually picked the winner.
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Nov 8, 2022 03:28
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Dapper_Swindler posted:least new god of war hits tomarrow. plus other stupid poo poo i like.
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Nov 8, 2022 03:28
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Automata 10 Pack posted:Yeah I got Wednesday and Thursday off. I'm going to spend election night obliterating my brain and playing MW2 and GOW2. new MW2 aint bad. i enjoyed the campaign alot, ill probably play more Gotham knights and other poo poo(its ok) I said gently caress it and blew a bundle on a art comission that i wont get until january. maybe order some 40k figurines. idk depends. i will remain hopeful at least about fetterman and warknock. i couldnt get off wednesday because everyone had the same idea.
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Nov 8, 2022 03:31
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"Optimistic" prediction: Dems keep the Senate and the House is insanely close and hinges upon the results of the Alaska House election which combined with recounts/every losing GOP candidate claiming fraud means we won't officially know who controls it for at least 2 weeks.
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Nov 8, 2022 03:50
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Youth Decay posted:"Optimistic" prediction: Dems keep the Senate and the House is insanely close and hinges upon the results of the Alaska House election which combined with recounts/every losing GOP candidate claiming fraud means we won't officially know who controls it for at least 2 weeks. This sounds right. If the house is close, win or lose, the Dems should gain a seat or two in the senate.
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Nov 8, 2022 03:52
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My wife and I have a tradition of going to waffle house after voting so there's that to look forward to. Two eggs over easy, toast, and hashbrowns covered, peppered, chunked, and capped. I'm to chicken poo poo to go all the way.
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Nov 8, 2022 03:56
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In the Missouri Senate race, the Dem is expected to get totally smoked tomorrow, and up to this point she has run a typical aggressive negative campaign, so nothing she can do right now is probably going to matter. She's probably doomed anyway, so what's her closing pitch? I guess if you have a crazy longshot idea to bring out, now's the time, and she's trying a clever (too clever?) idea in the last few days that this board seems to hate. She's running ads attacking both her Republican opponent and a wacky 3rd party guy by trying to say on the one hand that the Republican will suck up to "Communist China", and on the other hand that the wacky no hope 3rd party guy is "too conservative and too extreme for Missouri". So I guess she's hoping to peel off a few points in a 5-d convoluted chess move of trying to convince a few dumb Chud Republicans who would never vote for a Democrat to throw their vote away by switching over to the "too conservative for missouri" guy.
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Nov 8, 2022 04:00
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My only important take on the election is that if the Republicans manage to beef this poo poo and don't even take the house, it is an embarrassment of epic proportions It just doesn't happen like this The fact that they're struggling in polls where you can't reach anyone intelligent enough to block unregistered numbers because of the spam call explosion should make them feel like dumb loser idiots
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Nov 8, 2022 04:13
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Staluigi posted:The fact that they're struggling in polls where you can't reach anyone intelligent enough to block unregistered numbers because of the spam call explosion should make them feel like dumb loser idiots Glass half empty take (which I thought of recently) on this whole "who the hell are these 0.5% who answer polls anyway" question. It could be a pro-Dem bias. Who would answer these polls? Maybe old retired people but we already can control for that when weighting polls. So who else would be more likely than normal to answer them? People who are poor, desperate, unemployed, who are expecting calls and have no choice but to answer the phone. That is probably not rich or upper middle class Republicans who are probably refusing to answer the phone.
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Nov 8, 2022 04:18
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Rigel posted:I guess if you have a crazy longshot idea to bring out, now's the time, and she's trying a clever (too clever?) idea in the last few days that this board seems to hate. She's running ads attacking both her Republican opponent and a wacky 3rd party guy by trying to say on the one hand that the Republican will suck up to "Communist China", and on the other hand that the wacky no hope 3rd party guy is "too conservative and too extreme for Missouri"
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Nov 8, 2022 04:20
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Rigel posted:Glass half empty take (which I thought of recently) on this whole "who the hell are these 0.5% who answer polls anyway" question. It could be a pro-Dem bias. Who would answer these polls? Maybe old retired people but we already can control for that when weighting polls. So who else would be more likely than normal to answer them? People who are poor, desperate, unemployed, who are expecting calls and have no choice but to answer the phone. That is probably not rich or upper middle class Republicans who are probably refusing to answer the phone. Maybe but if you're expecting an important call how likely are you going to spend 5-10 minutes(no idea how long it actually takes) to talk to a pollster
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Nov 8, 2022 04:21
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