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From what I'm seeing the votes are still being counted and the dems look on course to lose the house, with senate still in a dead heat Are we looking at different reporting
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Nov 9, 2022 10:32
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Staluigi posted:Well, not anymore lol Well, technically, the GOP might have a majority. But if it comes down to literally one person, have fun being the whip and keeping everyone to the party line/showing up/alive. If the GOP had suddenly 20 seats more than the dems, it would shift a lot, but I don't think there will be giant changes anytime soon.
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Nov 9, 2022 10:35
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Yeah they're going to be too busy with the fallout of the reputed RED WAVE being the most poo poo performance of a non-incumbency midterm since before we was all born to make any radical strides towards something like cutting off Ukraine aid
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Nov 9, 2022 10:43
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Zedsdeadbaby posted:From what I'm seeing the votes are still being counted and the dems look on course to lose the house, with senate still in a dead heat republicans have been crossing the aisle to support Ukraine aid and america first has already been getting re-imagined as a pro-ukraine anti-russian movement, which seems likely to be an acknowledgement that they can't get the votes to stop it so they might as well try to take credit for it After last night republicans will be redoing most of their risk calculations wrt positions that might blow up in their face.
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Nov 9, 2022 11:02
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saratoga posted:The German experience is also instructive, where soldiers became gradually more disillusioned and attrition disproportionately killed off the people who still believed in the cause. The army never mutinied, but just sort of breaks down during the Hundred Days Offensive and you suddenly have thousands of soldiers surrendering rather than go on with the war. Everything looked fine until the line got hit, then it came undone really quickly and really unexpectedly (to both sides). We saw a miniature version of that with the especially depleted units around Izyum, where everyone melted away rather than fight. If things continue as they are I think eventually broader parts of the Russian line start to look like that. This is also an interesting point, thank you! I think that it ignores the fact that the German home front was totally hosed in terms of availability of food and every day goods, and the front line soldiers knew it. As long as the Russian government can maintain a decent standard of living (and I don’t doubt their ability to generally feed, clothe and shelter the populace to a basic standard), there won’t be the pressure of “this war is killing mom/dad/lil bro/my kids/grandma”
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Nov 9, 2022 12:26
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Herstory Begins Now posted:republicans have been crossing the aisle to support Ukraine aid and america first has already been getting re-imagined as a pro-ukraine anti-russian movement, which seems likely to be an acknowledgement that they can't get the votes to stop it so they might as well try to take credit for it Propaganda works. Give it a few months of Tucker Carlson vomiting out hatred-based talking points with AM radio spreading the gospel and half the country will be smugly talking about tax dollars and crime here meaning we have to help ourselves first and besides I heard it's all Nazis in Ukraine anyway do you support Nazis now stupid cuck lib?
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Nov 9, 2022 13:52
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CAT INTERCEPTOR posted:I'd guess that the way the US midterms went, there's not much threat to US arms supplies to Ukraine now. Feels kinda like Putin gambled with a GOP wave election and lost Only like 1/4th of republicans are anti-Ukraine Zedsdeadbaby posted:From what I'm seeing the votes are still being counted and the dems look on course to lose the house, with senate still in a dead heat No. The democrats will certainly lose the house and the senate might end up split or 51/49. It's just not the huge defeat. Again, it doesn't really matter as most republicans are more pro-Ukraine than the average European centrist. FishBulbia fucked around with this message at 14:13 on Nov 9, 2022 |
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Nov 9, 2022 14:10
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Some Russian telegrams are reporting that they've withdrawn from Kherson. Others are saying they've defeated another offensive.
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Nov 9, 2022 14:14
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Lol. Who could have imagined this on February 24th. https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/status/1590303954750951424
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Nov 9, 2022 14:19
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bird food bathtub posted:Propaganda works. Give it a few months of Tucker Carlson vomiting out hatred-based talking points with AM radio spreading the gospel and half the country will be smugly talking about tax dollars and crime here meaning we have to help ourselves first and besides I heard it's all Nazis in Ukraine anyway do you support Nazis now stupid cuck lib? They already were, as of 12 hours ago they started walking it back.
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Nov 9, 2022 14:19
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Finnish YLE is reporting that the head of the occupation government in Kherson Stremousov is dead. They have not additional info yet. Edit: Deputy head apparently. Source is said to be TASS, cause is apparently car accident. Kuule hain nussivan fucked around with this message at 14:28 on Nov 9, 2022 |
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Nov 9, 2022 14:24
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Kuule hain nussivan posted:Finnish YLE is reporting that the head of the occupation government in Kherson Stremousov is dead. They have not additional info yet. Deputy head in this case meant more like "court jester" in this case, and not the clever kind. Also a lot of reports of various bridges being blown up by Russian troops in villages in Kherson area.
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Nov 9, 2022 14:31
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Not out of the woods yet and won't know for a few more days, but it looks like US support for Ukraine is on good-enough ground for the next 2 years at least. Republicans are still likely to control the US house, but only by a single vote. While on paper that's enough to cause a lot of issues, in practice the US Republican party is a shitshow of disorganization that manages to make the Democrats look put together. Biden should retain the ability to continue shoving massive amounts of aid via Lend-Lease to Ukraine.
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Nov 9, 2022 14:37
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Lend Lease was never in danger as most of the Reps are hardcore MIC promoters, as far as I understand.
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Nov 9, 2022 14:47
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Kherson will be abandoned and defenses set up on the left bank of the Dniepr according to Shoigu
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Nov 9, 2022 16:12
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... did they decide to do it when everyone is paying attention to US elections? Hmm, probably not since it will take a number of days to play out.
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Nov 9, 2022 16:23
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German news are reporting that Russia officially ordered a withdrawal out of Cherson, citing Shoigu: https://twitter.com/tagesschau/status/1590364423767879681
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Nov 9, 2022 16:27
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Great news for Ukraine, but slightly disturbing to see Russian command embracing reality-based strategic planning.
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Nov 9, 2022 16:49
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Nov 9, 2022 16:51
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Shoigu is playing some nth dimension chess now. My expectation has been that Russians would either withdraw in a surprise move to conserve power and concentrate forces in Donetsk and Zaporizzhya (which is militarily prudent), or reinforce the positions in Kherson and make Ukrainians bleed themselves in a Mariupol 2: Mariuboogaloo (which might be politically a safer alternative and provide martyrs, but could also spectacularly backfire and anyway would result in a loss). But instead Shoigu announces it in television, expecting forces to withdraw all men and equipment in good order when Ukrainians are aware and can intervene at any moment. Is this another ruse or a blunder or have they secured a deal with Ukrainians for their safe leave?
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Nov 9, 2022 16:52
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He's right that this whole shitfest is a black page in Russian history, but not for the reasons he thinks.
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Nov 9, 2022 16:54
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Nenonen posted:Shoigu is playing some nth dimension chess now. I have no proof of this, but this smells like a situation where they have an agreement worked out and he's worried it will be destroyed by hardliners. By announcing it in the press he's sticking his neck out, but he has to sincerely think it's the better of the options. The hardliners don't have to plan and fight the war, he does, and he's aware that losing the city and keeping your forces intact is better than losing the city and a substantial number of your troops.
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Nov 9, 2022 16:55
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I think they already began leaving days if not weeks ago
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Nov 9, 2022 16:57
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Nenonen posted:My expectation has been that Russians would either withdraw in a surprise move to conserve power and concentrate forces in Donetsk and Zaporizzhya (which is militarily prudent), or reinforce the positions in Kherson and make Ukrainians bleed themselves in a Mariupol 2: Mariuboogaloo (which might be politically a safer alternative and provide martyrs, but could also spectacularly backfire and anyway would result in a loss). https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1590370457269960704 Surprise withdrawal is really possible given all the heavy equipment and blown up bridges and would just turn into a rout. He is essentially acknowledging that everyone needs to be prepared for a fighting retreat where they hold the front lines as long as possible.
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Nov 9, 2022 17:01
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All this time Ukrainian generals thought it was too good to be true and didn't want to rush into a clever trap, but looks like Russia just literally couldn't maintain military presence there. The question now is whether Ukraine will be able to capitalise on this after being extra cautious and deal substantial damage to retreating Russian forces.
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Nov 9, 2022 17:04
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KillHour posted:He's right that this whole shitfest is a black page in Russian history, but not for the reasons he thinks. It is year 2040 in a Russian school. Teacher: Now let's hear what you remember about the great men in our history. Who was the greatest military commander of all time? Yes, Masha? Masha: Marshall Zhukov, sir. Teacher: And why is that? Masha: Because he got us to Berlin! Teacher: Good answer. Are there any others? You, Dima? Dima: It was tsar Alexander I, sir! Teacher: And why so? Dima: Because he got us to Paris! Teacher: Well said, Dima. And... you have someone, Vanya? Who is the greatest commander? Vanya: Vladimir Putin, sir! Teacher: Really? Where did he get us? Vanya: To the Hague!
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Nov 9, 2022 17:06
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Nenonen posted:Shoigu is playing some nth dimension chess now. Lol if you think the Ukrainians wouldn't know if he didn't announce it on TV or that they weren't ready for this eventuality. No nth degree chess analysis needed. Preparations for a pull back have been happening for weeks. Given the nature of the restricted throughput of men and material across the damaged bridges, they spent weeks constructing fortifications that we have pictures of on both sides of the river to ensure that the possibility of the Ukranians bumrushing the them as they pulled back to be minimal. Preparations are probably now complete or close to it and it's time to publicly control the narrative the best they can. It is unlikely the Ukrainians will or are able try to take advantage. Given that they saw the construction of defensive positions themselves and publicly stated they were wary of a trap also indicates that they view the Russian positions as legitimately difficult to assault. A few days ago, there was reports of Russian reconnaissance units clashing in places like Dudchany probably to ensure there wasn't a Ukrainian force ready to pounce for exactly this moment.
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Nov 9, 2022 17:13
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Pook Good Mook posted:I have no proof of this, but this smells like a situation where they have an agreement worked out and he's worried it will be destroyed by hardliners. By announcing it in the press he's sticking his neck out, but he has to sincerely think it's the better of the options. The hardliners don't have to plan and fight the war, he does, and he's aware that losing the city and keeping your forces intact is better than losing the city and a substantial number of your troops. The possibility that Ukrainians dismissed the messages of Russian withdrawal as a trap just because they had made some arrangement with Russians that they would withdraw by date x and leave infra and people unharmed and in exchange UAF wouldn't block the retreat, is certainly intriguing. This is also impossible to prove. At any rate it will be interesting to hear just what exactly was going on, once we start getting clearer accounts.
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Nov 9, 2022 17:15
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Yeah its hardly rocket science https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JRkkqv6B7I8&t=246s
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Nov 9, 2022 17:18
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MikeC posted:It is unlikely the Ukrainians will or are able try to take advantage. Given that they saw the construction of defensive positions themselves and publicly stated they were wary of a trap also indicates that they view the Russian positions as legitimately difficult to assault. A few days ago, there was reports of Russian reconnaissance units clashing in places like Dudchany probably to ensure there wasn't a Ukrainian force ready to pounce for exactly this moment. You totally dismiss how difficult it is to pull out from a bridgehead with all your heavy equipment when the enemy has eyes in the sky and can reach all your road junctions, bridges and barge loading bays. Thousands of troops withdrawing is a big column, a nice target for HIMARS.
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Nov 9, 2022 17:19
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Nenonen posted:You totally dismiss how difficult it is to pull out from a bridgehead with all your heavy equipment when the enemy has eyes in the sky and can reach all your road junctions, bridges and barge loading bays. Thousands of troops withdrawing is a big column, a nice target for HIMARS. Who says they are going to do it all in one day? They have been moving support units across for weeks. The Ukrainians knew about it for weeks. I linked a public acknowledgement of that sometime ago. They couldn't act then and they unlikely to be able to severely punish them now. They have been hammering those crossing points for months now and they will continue to do so. Then entire point of building fortifications is that you can fallback progressively to prepared positions so you don't have to do it all at once.
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Nov 9, 2022 17:26
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They basically need to hold the barge landing spots out of tube artillery range long enough to withdraw, and that puts people holding the line in a tough spot.
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Nov 9, 2022 17:26
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Is there even a sense of how many Russian troops are still across the river? You would imagine this sort of announcement coming out if the troops are already gone but I thought Ukrainian forces were still facing resistance in that area and they were still in the outskirts and surrounding villages. I had the sense that if Russians were still defending positions that complete evacuation would still take a few days?
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Nov 9, 2022 17:34
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OddObserver posted:They basically need to hold the barge landing spots out of tube artillery range long enough to withdraw, and that puts people holding the line in a tough spot. Yea the last ones out are probably going to have a lovely time of it, no denying that. Some numbers of stragglers being captured is almost an inevitability. The point is that there is no crazy chess happening and people should view the situation at face value instead of concocting stupid scenarios like 'TV announcements mean Russians either super smart or super DURRRRR'. They are going to lose guys on the pullback. But given the meticulous planning, the odds of the shitshow back in Kyiv where it felt like it was everyman for themselves at midnight seems a less likely possibility.
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Nov 9, 2022 17:35
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Amazing to see the withdrawal from Kherson finally happening. I couldn’t be happier about this — no one will confusingly call the western side of the Dnipro “the right bank” anymore! (Presumably it flows north to south?) To the earlier post about Ukrainians capturing 500 Russian tanks, here’s a video of one of the repair stations in action - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GXLzSU0Ayic
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Nov 9, 2022 17:42
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Cocoa Ninja posted:(Presumably it flows north to south?)
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Nov 9, 2022 17:43
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Ukraine is officially still cautious about it https://twitter.com/Podolyak_M/status/1590379076464041984 Really hope it's for real though. What an incredible win in the lead up to the inevitable pause over the winter. The western flank secured by the river, allowing more force concentration elsewhere on the front. The Russians will benefit from this too, but to a much lesser extent given the state of their forces.
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Nov 9, 2022 18:09
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spankmeister posted:Rivers generally flow towards the sea, yes. It’s only a matter of time before I learn more about Ukraine than Putin.
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Nov 9, 2022 18:10
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Breaking contact and withdrawing is one of the most complex, risky operations. I'd argue it's harder to pull off than a wet crossing. In general, you try to sequence indirect fires and electronic effects to suppress enemy forces who might try to maneuver against your withdrawing formations. You may or may not try small, very focused attacks to make your enemy uncertain and/or commit reserves. Basically, you try a bunch of techniques to build space between you and the enemy. To be honest, in 5 years of active duty in the US Army we never practiced this, at least at my level. With the proliferation of cheap, ablative sensors (i.e. lots of small drones) and longer-ranged precision fires (GMLRS, Excalibur), I imagine this is even harder than it would have been 20 years ago, even without worrying too much about enemy fixed wing aircraft.
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Nov 9, 2022 18:38
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Nenonen posted:It is year 2040 in a Russian school.  You do a good Russian joke.
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Nov 9, 2022 18:52
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