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bird food bathtub posted:Propaganda works. Give it a few months of Tucker Carlson vomiting out hatred-based talking points with AM radio spreading the gospel and half the country will be smugly talking about tax dollars and crime here meaning we have to help ourselves first and besides I heard it's all Nazis in Ukraine anyway do you support Nazis now stupid cuck lib? Tucker has been running this messaging for the whole duration of the war already and it hasn’t shifted the views of the GOP who weren’t already hopeless Putin stans already.
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Nov 9, 2022 18:54
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The MIC will always have a very vested interest in keeping aid going to Ukraine for obvious reasons. Both because eventually you'll get your money back, the sending of stockpiled supplies means more will have to be manufacture AND blowing up Russian military hardware is great advertising for US military hardware.
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Nov 9, 2022 19:18
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Cocoa Ninja posted:I couldn’t be happier about this — no one will confusingly call the western side of the Dnipro “the right bank” anymore! It does flow North to South like everybody else is saying. The reasoning for referring to areas as left or right bank is really a matter of convention. For any population living near a major river, it is common to use the river as a general reference for location, especially in a rural setting where there's few landmarks. I have referenced places as left or right bank myself when I lived near a major river for a number of years. I'm not 100% sure why, but the left and right bank are always based on when you are looking downstream. This is true in Europe and North America. I'd like to guess it's because people historically travelled downstream more before rivers were commonly dammed.
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Nov 9, 2022 19:19
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RockWhisperer posted:It does flow North to South like everybody else is saying. The reasoning for referring to areas as left or right bank is really a matter of convention. For any population living near a major river, it is common to use the river as a general reference for location, especially in a rural setting where there's few landmarks. I have referenced places as left or right bank myself when I lived near a major river for a number of years. I'm not 100% sure why, but the left and right bank are always based on when you are looking downstream. This is true in Europe and North America. Rivers also meander around and saying N/E/S/W bank changes which side you're referring to depending on where you are. L/R bank is invariant over the entire length of the river.
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Nov 9, 2022 19:23
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RockWhisperer posted:It does flow North to South like everybody else is saying. The reasoning for referring to areas as left or right bank is really a matter of convention. For any population living near a major river, it is common to use the river as a general reference for location, especially in a rural setting where there's few landmarks. I have referenced places as left or right bank myself when I lived near a major river for a number of years. I'm not 100% sure why, but the left and right bank are always based on when you are looking downstream. This is true in Europe and North America. A fair number of people still say things like "Upper Nile" and "Lower Nile" which actually means "Southern" and "Northern" respectively. It's far more common in places that were mapped/settled prior to the advent of railroads.
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Nov 9, 2022 19:24
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Pook Good Mook posted:A fair number of people still say things like "Upper Nile" and "Lower Nile" which actually means "Southern" and "Northern" respectively. It's far more common in places that were mapped/settled prior to the advent of railroads. Have "upper" and "lower" been used otherwise after the advent of railroads?
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Nov 9, 2022 19:41
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https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2022/nov/09/russians-destroy-dnieper-bridges-to-slow-ukraine-advance-on-kherson I hadn't been paying close attention to the Inhulets area thinking activities had largely been shut down but the Guardian says bridges across the Russian held portions of the river were dropped on Wednesday. quote:The destruction of the bridges, however, suggested that Russian forces were preparing to abandon the positions that they occupied on western side of the Dnipro River. More signs that the Russians don't intend to stay as those bridges serve Russian units still defending parts of Kherson on the far side of the Inhulets.
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Nov 9, 2022 19:46
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Groda posted:Have "upper" and "lower" been used otherwise after the advent of railroads? Just upper and downer.
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Nov 9, 2022 19:46
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redbrouw posted:Just upper and downer. Hence the "Upper Pennisula."
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Nov 9, 2022 19:49
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Pook Good Mook posted:A fair number of people still say things like "Upper Nile" and "Lower Nile" which actually means "Southern" and "Northern" respectively. It's far more common in places that were mapped/settled prior to the advent of railroads. Ditto in Canada. As a kid I was always confused why the southern-most part of the country used to be called "Upper Canada". It's up the Saint-Lawrence river, so what is now Quebec was downstream and thus "Lower Canada" once the Brit's took it The left-bank/right-bank did take a moment to get used to but it makes a lot of sense once you think about it. Thanks to Tim Snyder for explaining this like a month ago. Closer to the topic, Ukraine has all the reason to be extremely cautious, but I'd say the retreat is real and the Russian's hiding around the city are just there to cover the retreat in the safest way possible. It would really suck if it's a false retreat and they want to force Ukraine into crawling urban warfare, I certainly wouldn't put it past them. But announcing a retreat publicly seems more dangerous to Putin's regime than fighting in Kherson to the last man, so I'm guessing it's real because it seems dumb to lie here. Also even if the order was to stay and make the city a giant Trojan horse, I wouldn't trust the troops to actually know that. If the troops see a bunch of their guys dropping uniforms and disappearing into the woodwork I imagine a bunch of them will take the chance to go AWOL or surrender. EDIT: trenching in Crimea: https://twitter.com/COUPSURE/status/1590405121808400384?s=20&t=Mx_lIQ4BmLIRaCrQNZLqeA Orthanc6 fucked around with this message at 19:56 on Nov 9, 2022 |
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Nov 9, 2022 19:50
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https://twitter.com/leonidragozin/status/1590438685748514816 Russian source have for their part uploaded footage of the evacuations https://twitter.com/mdfzeh/status/1590416693779922944 https://twitter.com/mdfzeh/status/1590441610671972352 It seems believable that they are in fact withdrawing, and Ukraine is being understandably hesitant to avoid a trap especially with how much the withdrawal has been announced compared to Kharkiv. That said, they are losing their chance to decisively defeat Russian forces by allowing them across the river. It's also possible that Ukraine is absolutely currently pushing but just not announcing it. FishBulbia fucked around with this message at 23:33 on Nov 9, 2022 |
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Nov 9, 2022 23:12
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What if Russians really withdraw but Ukraine never captures Kherson, thinking it's a trap? Would Kherson become a libertarian paradise? 
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Nov 10, 2022 00:11
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OddObserver posted:... did they decide to do it when everyone is paying attention to US elections? Hmm, probably not since it will take a number of days to play out. They've already been withdrawing some of their better units for as much as a month now and rotating in mobiks to hold the line along with a couple of remaining good units. Basically partial withdrawal has been underway for a while, but now we appear to be seeing full withdrawal now that political considerations are not arbitrarily superseding military considerations. FishBulbia posted:https://twitter.com/leonidragozin/status/1590438685748514816 Ukraine does not, pretty much as a categorical thing, talk about anything that they're currently doing. embargo on such info tends to be as much as two weeks for obvious reasons. We'll hear what is happening the same way that info normally filters out. With that said, Ukraine has basically been heavily shelling the crossings for weeks now and nothing about the current situation seems likely to have changed that reality. Also the entire right bank is likely one of the most densely mined areas in the world, which is not going to speed anything up. Conversely, the ability to get materiel across the river is mostly limited to a handful of barges mostly making a couple of crossings and hour. Time is everything, but this is probably going to be somewhat in slow motion compared to when Russian forces could just drive all the way out in the middle of the night Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 00:27 on Nov 10, 2022 |
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Nov 10, 2022 00:13
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Herstory Begins Now posted:
remember when UA soldiers were posting photos by every city sign as soon as they arrived, during the kharkiv offensive? You're right about the Official accounts, but I think we'll know pretty immediately if AFU is moving in Kherson.
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Nov 10, 2022 00:23
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smug n stuff posted:remember when UA soldiers were posting photos by every city sign as soon as they arrived, during the kharkiv offensive? You're right about the Official accounts, but I think we'll know pretty immediately if AFU is moving in Kherson. fyi those were mostly coming out a full day or two after the fact
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Nov 10, 2022 00:28
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I will say, it's pretty funny that trust in Russia has gotten to the point where when they openly say they're eating poo poo and intend to retreat, people don't believe them despite "eating poo poo and retreating" having been a thing they've been doing for a while now, and in fact a specific thing they were accused of doing earlier when they were claiming that they were holding firm and there were no problems, and despite the specific circumstances in which they're retreating having been predicted repeatedly earlier. I mean, yeah, some caution is warranted all things considered but we seem to have gotten to the point where if Putin says the sun rises in the east, everyone peers suspiciously to the west come daybreak.
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Nov 10, 2022 00:36
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There is little lost by being cautious if you've already given up on attempting to trap the enemy
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Nov 10, 2022 00:55
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Nenonen posted:What if Russians really withdraw but Ukraine never captures Kherson, thinking it's a trap? Would Kherson become a libertarian paradise? A free territory in southern Ukraine you say? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h_T7bD4pAlE
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Nov 10, 2022 00:56
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I suspect when the front on the right bank of Dnipro closes, we’ll see casualties go up on both sides, as there’s going to be just a steppe left to fight, between Donetsk and Enerhodar. Foggy Albion? Someone’s on a real bender, sheesh. This is like 3rd echelon of unnecessarily witty phrases. FishBulbia posted:I think they already began leaving days if not weeks ago Pure physics of how many non-students you can fit in a car would dictate that. WarpedLichen posted:Is there even a sense of how many Russian troops are still across the river? You would imagine this sort of announcement coming out if the troops are already gone but I thought Ukrainian forces were still facing resistance in that area and they were still in the outskirts and surrounding villages. I think “still” makes it impossible to answer the question, as there has been blackout for weeks. Your best bet would probably be to measure the active frontline on the map, and then figure out how many people would have to be there based on some doctrinal rifles per kilometre math. Cocoa Ninja posted:Amazing to see the withdrawal from Kherson finally happening. “Right bank” and “left bank” is relative to the direction of the flow of the river. While the nation did mobilise against the threat of the invasion, their rivers aren’t quite flooding Russian mountains yet, so the right bank of Dnipro refers to the shoreline the Kherson city stands on. Nenonen posted:What if Russians really withdraw but Ukraine never captures Kherson, thinking it's a trap? Would Kherson become a libertarian paradise? Bitcoin is going take any chances it has this week.
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Nov 10, 2022 01:30
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Aren't there a significant number of partisans in Kherson? They should be able to get the word to the Ukrainians if the Russians have actually left.
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Nov 10, 2022 04:47
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Bitcoin is going take any chances it has this week. I'll take a 6er for this if I have to, but sensible rear end chuckle.
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Nov 10, 2022 05:00
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Cocaine Bear posted:I'll take a 6er for this if I have to, but sensible rear end chuckle. same, for av post combo (this thread is my poo poo y'all keep it up with actual content I deserve the probe because I got nothing to add)
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Nov 10, 2022 05:14
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Foggy Albion? Someone’s on a real bender, sheesh. This is like 3rd echelon of unnecessarily witty phrases. I think it's the best he could mobilise. Rushing into a heavily mined urban area to pursue a retreating army is a great way to take lots and lots of casualties. I wouldn't expect much to happen in Kherson, urban terrain just isn't made for decisive pushes.
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Nov 10, 2022 08:13
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While the 'voluntary' withdraw from Kherson will benefit Russian logistics and abilities to defend on their side of the Dnipro, here are a couple points on why it is major accomplishment for Ukraine going into the winter. Moral for many Russian units will most likely not improve, and that will only be exacerbated by winter conditions. This does give the Russians time and space to further fortify their positions, however the influx of precision weapons and drones from NATO will negate the usefullness of said defensive positions. Have we seen these smaller drones equiped thermal imaging? Because dropping a grenade down every hot stove pipe is going to make for a miserable time on the front. We have seen the Ukrainians capable of maneuver warfare, winter conditions will hamper this, but it can be done if the winter is cold enough and minimal snow. I think if those good conditions do occur it is highly probable the Ukrainians perform major offensive operations in the winter.
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Nov 10, 2022 09:19
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Russian newspapers on the retreat: https://twitter.com/bbcstever/status/1590600147808841731
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Nov 10, 2022 10:34
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I'd assume morale would actually improve for most soldiers that end up defending a wide river with short logistical line to Crimea instead of having to defend the urban area full of hostile civillians and having that river on your back. Also for people that did man the defense line orderly retreat means they can loot whatever's left and is portable enough to move.
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Nov 10, 2022 10:41
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alex314 posted:I'd assume morale would actually improve for most soldiers that end up defending a wide river with short logistical line to Crimea instead of having to defend the urban area full of hostile civillians and having that river on your back. Also for people that did man the defense line orderly retreat means they can loot whatever's left and is portable enough to move. Most of the Kherson defenders would presumably be sent to some hot front section and the defense of Dnipro estuary relegated to fresh mobniks.
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Nov 10, 2022 10:49
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It does indeed seem like some sort of trap, on other hand I trust Zaluzhny, he outplayed russians on every turn so far.
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Nov 10, 2022 12:54
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Given Russias difficulties retreating from Kherson has been the smart play for months now. Making it look like an ambush is also the smart play. This would be two smart plays in a row from Russia so that might be the scariest aspect of this. It represents a major change in their strategy.
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Nov 10, 2022 14:34
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US General Milley says war has killed or injured 200,000 military personnel total (on both sides), with an even split, and that around 40,000 civilians have died. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63580372 FishBulbia fucked around with this message at 14:45 on Nov 10, 2022 |
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Nov 10, 2022 14:40
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:This would be two smart plays in a row from Russia so that might be the scariest aspect of this. It represents a major change in their strategy. As broadly kleptocratic and incompetent as Putin's Russia is, there are still some quite competent people within the Russian military, and combat is a particularly good way of separating the wheat from the chaff. You'd expect their strategic and operational performance to get better over time. They started from such a low base that it would be very difficult for this to not be the case.
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Nov 10, 2022 14:59
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The old never as strong, never as weak holds true. Russia absolutely failed again and again militarily, yet Putin's regime showed remarkable resilience and the military is still somehow functioning.
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Nov 10, 2022 15:01
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FishBulbia posted:US General Milley says war has killed or injured 200,000 military personnel total (on both sides), with an even split, and that around 40,000 civilians have died. Woah... That's by far the worst estimate I've seen for Ukraine’s military casualties.
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Nov 10, 2022 15:10
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alex314 posted:I'd assume morale would actually improve for most soldiers that end up defending a wide river with short logistical line to Crimea instead of having to defend the urban area full of hostile civillians and having that river on your back. Also for people that did man the defense line orderly retreat means they can loot whatever's left and is portable enough to move. Those soldiers know that they're either coming home in a casket, as invalids, or when Russia has won. Moving back towards Russian borders means that the chances of the third outcome grows even smaller for them.
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Nov 10, 2022 15:15
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:Given Russias difficulties retreating from Kherson has been the smart play for months now. the smart play would have been withdrawing 2 months ago after it was clear that they couldn't adequately supply their forces in the region. instead they had their units and materiel spend that time getting shelled relentlessly as part of a harebrained idea that not surrendering Kherson would lead to a republican electoral wave that would lead to Ukraine losing all American support. I wouldn't call any stage of that smart plays, it's all just desperation.
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Nov 10, 2022 15:20
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KYOON GRIFFEY JR posted:As broadly kleptocratic and incompetent as Putin's Russia is, there are still some quite competent people within the Russian military, and combat is a particularly good way of separating the wheat from the chaff. You'd expect their strategic and operational performance to get better over time. They started from such a low base that it would be very difficult for this to not be the case. Putin has been firing generals who give him too much bad news, and Ukraine has been killing commanders who spend too much time near the front, so I'm not sure about selection working in the direction you're thinking. I also don't think they started with particularly poor generals, just a really poor plan forced on them by Putin with very little time to prepare. A lot of the cycling through of army leadership has been aimed at covering for the incompetence of the political leadership. As for the withdrawal, given that it started when Surovikin was promoted, it was clearly something he insisted upon before taking the job. Given that Putin had been resisting the obviously necessary withdrawal for months, it looks more like he couldn't find a commander who wanted to defend the river for a couple months and then be purged for failing at the impossible.
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Nov 10, 2022 15:24
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Charlz Guybon posted:Woah... That's by far the worst estimate I've seen for Ukraine’s military casualties. For every video of a drone dropping a grenade on a Russian patrol, there's a video of a squad of Ukrainians in civilian vehicles getting ambushed
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Nov 10, 2022 15:26
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:This would be two smart plays in a row from Russia so that might be the scariest aspect of this. It represents a major change in their strategy. A realistic understanding of what their own military can and can't achieve was always a necessary precondition to get Russia to negotiate in earnest. I find it somewhat interesting that the apparently most competent Russian military commander yet is also one with a history of participating in coups...
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Nov 10, 2022 15:36
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saratoga posted:Putin has been firing generals who give him too much bad news, and Ukraine has been killing commanders who spend too much time near the front, so I'm not sure about selection working in the direction you're thinking. I also don't think they started with particularly poor generals, just a really poor plan forced on them by Putin with very little time to prepare. A lot of the cycling through of army leadership has been aimed at covering for the incompetence of the political leadership. You are being exposed to propaganda from Ukraine. I don't mean this in a negative way, you just have to recognize it as such. Ukraine has killed a fair number of BTG commanders, a few brigade commanders, and like one or two divisional guys. You also tend to kill the least competent of your opponents - the guys that sit still for days/weeks, that use the radio too much, that have predictable patterns, that don't disperse or effectively locate their CPs, etc. You're not hearing about all the CPs that aren't getting hit. I don't think the operational leadership level of the army is quite so political. Sure, the guys at the top are being replaced for political reasons, but the dead BTG commander isn't being replaced by a political appointee, he's being replaced by one of the more competent company commanders or a good BTG staff officer. Don't assume the Russian army is completely incompetent and can't learn from its mistakes.
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Nov 10, 2022 15:47
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FishBulbia posted:US General Milley says war has killed or injured 200,000 military personnel total (on both sides), with an even split, and that around 40,000 civilians have died. Sure but is the 100k on each side evenly split between injuries and fatalities? 10k wounded, 90k dead is very different from the opposite
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