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What is the most powerful flying bug? This poll is closed. |
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|---|---|---|---|
| 🦋 |
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15 | 3.71% |
| 🦇 |
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115 | 28.47% |
| 🪰 |
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12 | 2.97% |
| 🐦 |
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67 | 16.58% |
| dragonfly |
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94 | 23.27% |
| 🦟 |
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14 | 3.47% |
| 🐝 |
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87 | 21.53% |
| Total: | 404 votes | ||
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I mean, if the intention of maintaining Russian forces in Ukraine is to force the Ukrainian government into a peace settlement on Russia's terms, what message does retreating from Kherson send? Why negotiate, if the impression is that Russia is on the back foot and that they can be pushed back to the border through purely military means? And from the Russian side, why start this war, if you're just going to half-rear end it? Why prolong it? Is the plan really just to sit tight and wait the Ukrainians out, 'cos it certainly doesn't look like the Ukrainians have any intention of throwing the towel in. Can someone with a better understanding than me explain, 'cos I really don't get it lol.
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Nov 10, 2022 10:19
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the answer is simple:- Putin is a brain dead idiot dictator who surrounded himself with even bigger idiot yes men and he has the intellectual capacity of a trump.
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Nov 10, 2022 10:21
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genericnick posted:Why though? Just blockade it. Because if you do it slowly the deep green fraction has a good chance to become more and more radical and hardcore resistant. The dpp could also force the unwilling civilians to go to total war. You can still start with blockade, but you want to treat it as the final blockade, and there is no on-off blockade and slow negotiation. Personally, I don't see blockade working any better than leaning on the Chinese production capacity advantage from the start. Just fly 10000 Iranian 136 type bombs and take out the entire infrastructure from week one. Rebuilding roads and electrical grid after war are the easiest things for mainland to manage.
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Nov 10, 2022 10:21
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maybe china shouldnt invade taiwan
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Nov 10, 2022 10:22
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Conspiratiorist posted:maybe china shouldnt invade taiwan people wouldn't keep needing to come up with scenarios about China invading Taiwan if people didn't keep insisting that it's going to happen even this whole thing about "Ukraine's success against Russia should serve as a lesson to China about how they'd fail if they ever tried it against Taiwan" - like yeah, okay, sure, let's grant that maybe China was thinking about invading Taiwan, and now they won't, because they saw what happened to Russia when they invaded Ukraine... does that mean we can stop talking about China wanting to invade Taiwan now?
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Nov 10, 2022 10:38
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gradenko_2000 posted:people wouldn't keep needing to come up with scenarios about China invading Taiwan if people didn't keep insisting that it's going to happen if we stop talking about it, we can assume that china thought that we forgot about taiwan and will try and take it in the middle of the night one half of geopolitics is object permanence
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Nov 10, 2022 10:44
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The US think tanks are basically spending half of their time talking about it now (post Pelosi visit), so its easier for me to talk about this subject without getting banned. I got banned so many times on resetera talking about anything China related back in the day. Until one day I realized, okay them English platforms just don't want you to express your Asian rear end opinions.
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Nov 10, 2022 10:56
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Blockading Taiwan is just asking for a bunch of Cuban Missile Crisis shenanigans and other assorted close calls and diplomatic difficulties. It would harden the Taiwanese against them, and the longer it lasted the more politically uncomfortable it gets for the CCP both at home and abroad. If China for whatever reason reversed its Taiwan policy out of nowhere and decides it absolutely must gain control of Taiwan and it absolutely must be sooner and not later, full scale invasion on day one is their only real choice.
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Nov 10, 2022 10:57
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gradenko_2000 posted:people wouldn't keep needing to come up with scenarios about China invading Taiwan if people didn't keep insisting that it's going to happen I mean, Xi recently said that they won't rule it out so it seems to me like he wants people talking about it.
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Nov 10, 2022 11:19
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Al-Saqr posted:the answer is simple:- Putin is a brain dead idiot dictator who surrounded himself with even bigger idiot yes men and he has the intellectual capacity of a trump. he has post-covid dementia
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Nov 10, 2022 11:54
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as mentioned by others i agree that evacuating kherson is a weird decision, even if it makes sense from a military perspective. unless the russian ultranats actually are a paper tiger it seems like the russian leadership will need wins of some kind at this point to keep the peace at homegalagazombie posted:Blockading Taiwan is just asking for a bunch of Cuban Missile Crisis shenanigans and other assorted close calls and diplomatic difficulties. It would harden the Taiwanese against them, and the longer it lasted the more politically uncomfortable it gets for the CCP both at home and abroad. If China for whatever reason reversed its Taiwan policy out of nowhere and decides it absolutely must gain control of Taiwan and it absolutely must be sooner and not later, full scale invasion on day one is their only real choice. taiwan would last a couple of weeks under blockade until the lights literally turn off because they have no fuel left Conspiratiorist posted:maybe china shouldnt invade taiwan yea, and maybe the west should stop trying to split off parts of china
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Nov 10, 2022 12:20
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Al-Saqr posted:the answer is simple:- Putin is a brain dead idiot dictator who surrounded himself with even bigger idiot yes men and he has the intellectual capacity of a trump.
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Nov 10, 2022 12:22
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I guess one of the things confusing me was that in previous conflicts (Georgia 2008, Crimea 2014 and Syria 2015-2016), Russia had clear and limited objectives and in each case was able to deploy the necessary forces to achieve them. What they're doing in Ukraine seems much more incoherent by comparison.
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Nov 10, 2022 12:31
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different circumstances i guess. all those went p smoothly because the geographical areas in question were small enough to handle with just regulars or in the case of syria they could rely on locals for raw manpower also i don't think anybody really expected the ukrainan leadership to completely destroy their own country in some crazy endsieg gambit, but they had clearly been infected by the anglo death drive
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Nov 10, 2022 12:37
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the PRC could absolutely force the issue of taiwan if they wanted to, and it would be politically difficult for them to not force the issue if the US successfully goad the taiwanese into declaring independence. taiwanese authorities seem aware of this and don't much want to increase tensions that much (since if anything goes wrong they're literally all dead), but this requires the PRC to actually be willing to force the issue upon escalation. it's a delicate song and dance, because the ROC remains entirely dependent on US good-will and so has to maneuver very carefully to avoid pissing off their patron while also not making it hard for the PRC to keep on mostly ignoring them. at this stage, i don't think either of the primary parties actually wants that particular conflict to escalate, but the ROC's in a very tricky diplomatic spot and so stuff can be provoked as with the incredibly stupid pelosi visit.
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Nov 10, 2022 12:37
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Nov 10, 2022 12:37
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re: the present war, it really is not over yet. we should wait with the post-mortems until the conflict stops seeing major developments for a while imo.
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Nov 10, 2022 12:38
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Al-Saqr posted:When was the last conflict where someone did something like this? America typically goes whole hog in their invasions, when was the last conflict that the bigger side settled for a tiny slice then hoped for a better peace terms? Georgia? Russia's war aim from the start has been to annex Ukraine at least up through Kyiv and the war is ongoing, no one has really "settled" for anything, least of all Russia which is actively mobilizing a huge number of men
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Nov 10, 2022 12:41
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Cerebral Bore posted:different circumstances i guess. all those went p smoothly because the geographical areas in question were small enough to handle with just regulars or in the case of syria they could rely on locals for raw manpower yeah i get the impression that the russians were really expecting either a general collapse of the ukrainian military following the initial offensive or at least a quick resolution through negotiation from strength. they'v seriously underestimated the ideological hardening of ukrainian society, and especially the effect that the invasion would have on the government, in addition to failing to take some obvious early-campaign objectives (kharkiv in particular). a lot of this seems to be intelligence failures, funnily enough, but i suppose that just as military juntas are generally bad at running an effective military, rule by spies means that the intelligence agencies are allowed to get more complacent than is good for them.
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Nov 10, 2022 12:41
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Oh, page 69  Here's to 69 pages more before a new thread is needed again
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Nov 10, 2022 12:41
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Vox Nihili posted:Russia's war aim from the start has been to annex Ukraine at least up through Kyiv lol okay buddy
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Nov 10, 2022 12:43
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gradenko_2000 posted:lol okay buddy Russia sent an enormous column right for Kyiv, did you memory hole that?
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Nov 10, 2022 12:44
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the funny thing about kherson was annexing it. since you're slapping urself in the face lol. with the dnieper being a natural barrier and ukraine having huge range with himars its weirder that theyve been so committed to it. What are you going for? cutting off ukraine from the sea? lol sure. even the closest land point isn't within range of crimea roads or bridges iirc. you'd think the priority would be ensuring that unsustainable use rate continues so any continuing movements next spring have less backline fuckery. from US articles UA suffered some crazy loses already pushing kherson so bouncing early before its your turn is somewhat understandable. this has been your daily russian MOD spin
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Nov 10, 2022 12:44
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Conspiratiorist posted:maybe china shouldnt invade taiwan The world will never be safe until all outposts of American global imperialism have been dismantled
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Nov 10, 2022 12:45
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actually they want to annex kiev
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Nov 10, 2022 12:46
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Pistol_Pete posted:I mean, if the intention of maintaining Russian forces in Ukraine is to force the Ukrainian government into a peace settlement on Russia's terms, what message does retreating from Kherson send? Why negotiate, if the impression is that Russia is on the back foot and that they can be pushed back to the border through purely military means? And from the Russian side, why start this war, if you're just going to half-rear end it? Why prolong it? Is the plan really just to sit tight and wait the Ukrainians out, 'cos it certainly doesn't look like the Ukrainians have any intention of throwing the towel in. 
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Nov 10, 2022 12:47
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Taiwan is capitalism's dagger aimed at the heart of world revolution
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Nov 10, 2022 12:48
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Vox Nihili posted:Russia sent an enormous column right for Kyiv, did you memory hole that? this is a data point which can be reasonably interpreted in various ways. going from "russia made a serious attempt to invest kyiv" to "russia obviously intended to annex ukraine up to and including kyiv" is quite the leap.
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Nov 10, 2022 12:48
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It's also hard to judge, when Russian objectives remain so opaque. We know that Ukraine 'wins' if they can force a Russian withdrawal but what does a Russian 'win' even look like? Regime change in Kiev? Complete occupation of the country? Partition? A peace treaty on Russia's terms, where Ukraine agrees devolution for majority Russian regions and commits to never joining NATO? I'm starting to think that they may be going for a permanent 'frozen' conflict, Korean peninsula style but that would hinge on Ukraine being willing to play along with that, which seems pretty optimistic as things stand.
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Nov 10, 2022 12:49
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Vox Nihili posted:Russia sent an enormous column right for Kyiv, did you memory hole that? A huge military column right in front the capital is a good argument to force your opponent to the negotiating table
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Nov 10, 2022 12:50
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Vox Nihili posted:Russia sent an enormous column right for Kyiv, did you memory hole that? the annexation of a place is not the only reason to ever send an armored column to that place
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Nov 10, 2022 12:51
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V. Illych L. posted:this is a data point which can be reasonably interpreted in various ways. going from "russia made a serious attempt to invest kyiv" to "russia obviously intended to annex ukraine up to and including kyiv" is quite the leap. theyve formally annexed the rest of the territory they've taken, you'd have to have your head up your rear end to think they wouldn't have taken Kyiv if the initial plan had worked out of course everyone was saying outright annexation wasn't going to happen either, just a few months after they said war wasn't going to happen people here really believe the razor-thin half-assed cover story casus belli, it's incredibly sad
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Nov 10, 2022 12:51
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samogonka posted:A huge military column right in front the capital is a good argument to force your opponent to the negotiating table yeah what you're negotiating for with a lightning strike at the capital is outright capitulation
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Nov 10, 2022 12:54
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Vox Nihili posted:theyve formally annexed the rest of the territory they've taken, you'd have to have your head up your rear end to think they wouldn't have taken Kyiv if the initial plan had worked out you're making huge leaps and saying that people pointing out that these are huge leaps are stupid that is, itself, stupid
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Nov 10, 2022 12:56
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Vox Nihili posted:yeah what you're negotiating for with a lightning strike at the capital is outright capitulation placing your opponent in a situation where they may lose almost-everything tends to be a good bargaining position
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Nov 10, 2022 12:57
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Pistol_Pete posted:It's also hard to judge, when Russian objectives remain so opaque. We know that Ukraine 'wins' if they can force a Russian withdrawal but what does a Russian 'win' even look like? Regime change in Kiev? Complete occupation of the country? Partition? A peace treaty on Russia's terms, where Ukraine agrees devolution for majority Russian regions and commits to never joining NATO? Yep, something along the line of russia effectively owning the lands it controls but not on the UA/international books. theyve sunk too much to have nothing and equally can't pull off a total sweep. so they're gonna both fight until they're tired. Kherson imo is trimming the fat. Just a resource sink. Whats the advantage? no natural resources. water i guess?
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Nov 10, 2022 12:59
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Homeless Friend posted:Yep, something along the line of russia effectively owning the lands it controls. theyve sunk too much to have nothing and equally can't pull off a total sweep. so they're gonna both fight until they're tired. Kherson imo is trimming the fat. Just a resource sink. Whats the advantage? no natural resources. water i guess? it's a huge river crossing and a major prize for the russians, as well as claimed territory. it's politically a very costly move to abandon it, even if it's militarily more trouble than it's worth
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Nov 10, 2022 13:00
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yeah its a river crossing. where ya crossing to? theyve got a bridge up in alaska that goes to an island. the bridge is in range of artillery. its a useless piece of crap imo
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Nov 10, 2022 13:01
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We need to have understanding and compassion. Vox Nihili read some super retarded post for a few months and this is his chance for catharsis. How about we let the man vent.
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Nov 10, 2022 13:02
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| # ? May 23, 2024 10:06 |
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Vox Nihili posted:Russia's war aim from the start has been to annex Ukraine at least up through Kyiv and the war is ongoing, no one has really "settled" for anything, least of all Russia which is actively mobilizing a huge number of men Share your Putin PMs with the class
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Nov 10, 2022 13:08
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