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If Russia managed to retreat from Kyiv and Kharkiv with relatively low casualties, I don't imagine retreating from Kherson, where they had more time to prepare, can go much worse. Ukrainian telegram channels spread rumours that ~18k Russian soldiers were left behind and are about to get crushed, but it's very hard to believe that.
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Nov 10, 2022 23:10
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Paladinus posted:If Russia managed to retreat from Kyiv and Kharkiv with relatively low casualties, I don't imagine retreating from Kherson, where they had more time to prepare, can go much worse. Ukrainian telegram channels spread rumours that ~18k Russian soldiers were left behind and are about to get crushed, but it's very hard to believe that. Kharkiv didn't have any bottlenecks to slow the retreat down.
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Nov 10, 2022 23:12
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Paladinus posted:If Russia managed to retreat from Kyiv and Kharkiv with relatively low casualties, I don't imagine retreating from Kherson, where they had more time to prepare, can go much worse. Ukrainian telegram channels spread rumours that ~18k Russian soldiers were left behind and are about to get crushed, but it's very hard to believe that. It was a lot easier to retreat from Kyiv and Kharkiv because you could just... run. Apparently a lot of the bridges are out so the only way to escape is through the river.
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Nov 10, 2022 23:13
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Flavahbeast posted:Solovyev is doing it live So what do you think will happen to Shoigu, he seems like an obvious scapegoat? I doubt that Vova will give him the good ol' window, after all he's always been loyal and personal loyalty is what keeps this system running. But he can't possibly keep his current job, can he?
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Nov 10, 2022 23:13
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Paladinus posted:If Russia managed to retreat from Kyiv and Kharkiv with relatively low casualties, I don't imagine retreating from Kherson, where they had more time to prepare, can go much worse. Ukrainian telegram channels spread rumours that ~18k Russian soldiers were left behind and are about to get crushed, but it's very hard to believe that. I thought the retreat from Kharkiv involved a lot of heavy equipment left behind? If the river crossing becomes congested, the same thing will play out in Kherson.
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Nov 10, 2022 23:16
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WarpedLichen posted:I thought the retreat from Kharkiv involved a lot of heavy equipment left behind? That is what happened, yes. Also some of the stuff I'm seeing talks about an agreement with the US to be able to retreat without being attacked. Apparently, according to the Russians, the Ukrainians turned out to not be parties to this agreement and swooped in instead.
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Nov 10, 2022 23:24
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What a very Russian thing to do. Though maybe it's another exaggeration and the guys left behind are supposed to withdraw sometime later and hence no orders were given as of yet. Personally, if I was a mobilized soldier that didn't want to fight, being left behind is probably not a bad outcome. Throw away your weapon, find some white cloth, wave vigorously, and let the UA capture you. You might have to do a little humiliating TV time but you spend the rest of the war in a camp and get fed. If you get withdrawn, your next assignment might involve you being target practice for drones/artillery/planes in some other part of Ukraine. WarpedLichen posted:I thought the retreat from Kharkiv involved a lot of heavy equipment left behind? It was Kyiv that they got away relatively scot-free after ditching all the heavy gear that they couldn't flee with. ISW reported that significant casualties occurred at Kharkiv when the Russians sent reserves in to try to stem the flow. When the Ukrainians mopped the floor with them, those who were left fled for the border. With the Dnipro in the way this time, if something similar happens in Kherson, expect a lot of surrendering to be done.
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Nov 10, 2022 23:26
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Kchama posted:That is what happened, yes. This is just a dumb conspiracy theory that Russian Z-influencers use to explain to themselves and their audience why things are not going well. It's based literally on nothing apart from their firm belief that people in power are all liars and constantly strike shady deals in secret, while common folks suffer the consequences. People are so disenfranchised and disinterested in politics, they literally can't imagine things being as they are, and there not being some great lie at the centre of it all.
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Nov 10, 2022 23:35
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Comstar posted:14km to the bridge in a straight line going off Google maps. Yeah, that was my reaction as well. Pretty big deal if they've recaptured it given the airport located there, plus the fact that it's right outside of Kherson city.
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Nov 10, 2022 23:38
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Paladinus posted:This is just a dumb conspiracy theory that Russian Z-influencers use to explain to themselves and their audience why things are not going well. It's based literally on nothing apart from their firm belief that people in power are all liars and constantly strike shady deals in secret, while common folks suffer the consequences. People are so disenfranchised and disinterested in politics, they literally can't imagine things being as they are, and there not being some great lie at the centre of it all. Oh absolutely, which is why I said "According to the Russians".
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Nov 10, 2022 23:41
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Paladinus posted:This is just a dumb conspiracy theory that Russian Z-influencers use to explain to themselves and their audience why things are not going well. It's based literally on nothing apart from their firm belief that people in power are all liars and constantly strike shady deals in secret, while common folks suffer the consequences. People are so disenfranchised and disinterested in politics, they literally can't imagine things being as they are, and there not being some great lie at the centre of it all. Besides, it reads like it only makes sense if you already believe that the US is prosecuting the war with Ukraine as a puppet state. Which is apparently the official Russian government's position anyway; it couldn't possibly be that Ukrainians have their own agency and willingness to attack the Russian armed forces for some reason.
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Nov 10, 2022 23:42
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Paladinus posted:If Russia managed to retreat from Kyiv and Kharkiv with relatively low casualties, I don't imagine retreating from Kherson, where they had more time to prepare, can go much worse. Ukrainian telegram channels spread rumours that ~18k Russian soldiers were left behind and are about to get crushed, but it's very hard to believe that. There's about 12 boats left to move 20000 troops in 1 day. Which is now being hit by short range rocket artillery. The Ukrainians are close enough now to get drones giving real time updates on the boat positions. By next week the biggest problem is going to find somewhere to put the POW's.
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Nov 10, 2022 23:43
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https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1590835711733026816 It's hard to overstate how bad a rout here would be for Russia. The river is huge and both the bridge and the barge crossing has been taken out leaving only a small number of ferries. Previous routs have involved soldiers melting away into wooded areas, stealing civilian cars and making their own way back to friendly lines. In this case, they either make it onto a ferry or they swim. Ukraine is already bombarding the area and this will get worse and worse as they get closer. It'd be hard to organise a withdrawal under these conditions even with perfect discipline and planning. They desperately need blocking forces to buy them time to get out, if those forces are broken then it'll be a catastrophe. Chalks fucked around with this message at 23:46 on Nov 10, 2022 |
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Nov 10, 2022 23:44
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The bridge is still perfectly crossable for pedestrians. Well, not at night on the account of giant holes, and I imagine the ends may be getting shelled, but it does exist.
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Nov 10, 2022 23:50
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Kchama posted:That is what happened, yes. I refuse to believe this is accurate, that Russia literally ignored Ukraine, negotiated with the USA, and got the USA to say " ok yes, we will not attack you", and then Ukraine proceeds to attack after not being a part of the conversation at all. I mean, I know the Russian official line is that Ukraine is a puppet regime and its really the US making all the decisions and that there's no point to talking to the puppet, you should instead negotiate with the USA, etc. But privately they had to have known they needed to talk to Ukraine, right?
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Nov 10, 2022 23:53
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OddObserver posted:The bridge is still perfectly crossable for pedestrians. Well, not at night on the account of giant holes, and I imagine the ends may be getting shelled, but it does exist. At this point, even that's a maybe https://twitter.com/NLwartracker/status/1590775585344983040 https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1590840382052765696
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Nov 10, 2022 23:55
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Chalks posted:https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1590835711733026816 There's probably also anarchy on the left bank at disembarking of the ferries. It's going to be a mess for the Russians but I don't think they really care about the howevermany dudes are still on the right bank.
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Nov 10, 2022 23:55
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Chalks posted:At this point, even that's a maybe Wait, why would they blow up the Antonovkyi bridge unless they were mostly evacuated already? Isn't that one of the main ways out? Why not leave an option besides the ferries?
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Nov 10, 2022 23:58
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WarpedLichen posted:Wait, why would they blow up the Antonovkyi bridge unless they were mostly evacuated already? Isn't that one of the main ways out? Even for all the boneheaded mistakes Russia has made in this war blowing up the bridge before their own forces finish retreating would make the top of the list. So yeah, I'm pretty skeptical. Now, if I were in charge of the Ukrainian forces I might try to let half the Russian forces retreat then blow up the bridge.
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Nov 11, 2022 00:00
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It's like Dunkirk but with idiots.
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Nov 11, 2022 00:01
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WarpedLichen posted:Wait, why would they blow up the Antonovkyi bridge unless they were mostly evacuated already? Isn't that one of the main ways out? I guess they're more scared of the Ukrainians advancing over the river than they are of losing 20,000 troops and equipment. It's insane but the whole war has been a series of unbelievably bad decisions. Just to confirm, the 20,000 figure is from Russian sources. This sounds like a complete disaster https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1590839531057852417 https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1590838418342232065
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Nov 11, 2022 00:02
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Rigel posted:I refuse to believe this is accurate, that Russia literally ignored Ukraine, negotiated with the USA, and got the USA to say " ok yes, we will not attack you", and then Ukraine proceeds to attack after not being a part of the conversation at all. I mean, every time a huge calamity they've preferred the "We're completely incompetent and owned ourselves!" to "Ukraine had a victory", so it does seem like the sort of lie they'd tell.
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Nov 11, 2022 00:03
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Bremen posted:Even for all the boneheaded mistakes Russia has made in this war blowing up the bridge before their own forces finish retreating would make the top of the list. So yeah, I'm pretty skeptical. Well you see the General who ordered it told a Colonel to do it who found a Engineering Captain to do place the explosives who told a corporal to not touch the button without his say so. quote:The Allies had only learned of the French evacuation at 7:00 on the morning of the 19 October.[54] Soon thereafter between 8:00–9:00 am they launched a full-scale assault from the north, south, and east against the retreating French. But they were held up in Leipzig because of a ferocious street-to-street rearguard action fought by Marshal Oudinot's 30,000 troops.[54] As the Russians and Prussians entered the city through the Halle and Grimma gates they fell upon barricades and houses full of French soldiers. Civilians were forced into hiding as the bloody urban combat raged throughout the city.[57] So Putin losing 20000 is less bad than Napoleon did. Op Success. Comstar fucked around with this message at 00:09 on Nov 11, 2022 |
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Nov 11, 2022 00:06
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How did Ukraine end up with some many casualties? Don't they have an enormous advantage since they're defending? And in other news, https://twitter.com/ThreshedThought/status/1590834205956923393?s=20&t=Tfv7G1e4w-Jq5Ju2cDplMQ https://twitter.com/ThreshedThought/status/1590834230220972032?s=20&t=Tfv7G1e4w-Jq5Ju2cDplMQ https://twitter.com/ThreshedThought/status/1590836286704988161?s=20&t=Tfv7G1e4w-Jq5Ju2cDplMQ https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1590838166679736320?s=20&t=Tfv7G1e4w-Jq5Ju2cDplMQ
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Nov 11, 2022 00:15
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Is there a map of the area where the Russians are attempting to retreat from in relation to the remaining bridges (if they exist) and to Ukrainian and Russian-occupied territory?
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Nov 11, 2022 00:20
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A few days ago the Royal United Services Institute (a UK defence and security think tank) published an in-depth look at the air-war so far. I've not had a chance to read it properly yet, and frankly I'm qualified to critique it... https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/special-resources/russian-air-war-and-ukrainian-requirements-air-defence/
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Nov 11, 2022 00:26
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Crosby B. Alfred posted:How did Ukraine end up with some many casualties? Don't they have an enormous advantage since they're defending? Most killing is done with artillery, and Russia had a massive artillery advantage until HIMARS started blowing up ammo dumps
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Nov 11, 2022 00:29
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Pablo Bluth posted:A few days ago the Royal United Services Institute (a UK defence and security think tank) published an in-depth look at the air-war so far. I've not had a chance to read it properly yet, and frankly I'm qualified to critique it... Kinda confirms what we've seen, neither side is capable of operating aircraft near the front and no clear air superiority. This is a win for Ukraine as their air defense systems have mostly neutralized Russia's far superior and numerous air force except for long range and expensive stand off missile attacks. Downside is they also cannot really operate to support their ground forces.
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Nov 11, 2022 00:33
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Pablo Bluth posted:A few days ago the Royal United Services Institute (a UK defence and security think tank) published an in-depth look at the air-war so far. I've not had a chance to read it properly yet, and frankly I'm qualified to critique it... The tl;dr (although it's a good read) is that the narrative that Russia has been holding back its air force isn't actually true - there have been multiple phases of the air war over the last 9 months and at every stage both sides have been giving the maximum effort possible.
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Nov 11, 2022 00:34
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Cool so a full 6% of the newly mobilized could become POW's in like a day if that 20K trapped is at all accurate. Even worse if a substantial number of those are from "better" trained units from earlier in the war It sure won't end things, but that's a LOT of very needed manpower to lose in one go.
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Nov 11, 2022 00:35
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Orthanc6 posted:Cool so a full 6% of the newly mobilized could become POW's in like a day if that 20K trapped is at all accurate. Even worse if a substantial number of those are from "better" trained units from earlier in the war Nothing a second mobilization wave can’t fix!
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Nov 11, 2022 00:41
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Deltasquid posted:Nothing a second mobilization wave can’t fix! What was it like 70K men that fled Russia during mobilization wave 1? It'll be fun to see Mob Wave 2: No-economy-boogaloo result in more people fleeing than being recruited. It's a weird but nice feeling that, due to delays in info getting out, it's entirely possible Kherson is already liberated. I'd be surprised if clearing it lasts a week from all the news we're hearing today. Especially with truly historic orders like "grab clothes off the clotheslines and run in some direction, I don't care which"
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Nov 11, 2022 00:54
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Comstar posted:There's about 12 boats left to move 20000 troops in 1 day. Which is now being hit by short range rocket artillery. But Ukrainians were in no rush to storm Kherson. I know I may be severely underestimating the level of incompetence at play, but Russia could have spent more time evacuating soldiers by air, for example, they didn't have to announce they were leaving for sure, while there are still thousands of troops there. Makes no sense whatsoever.
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Nov 11, 2022 00:56
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Paladinus posted:But Ukrainians were in no rush to storm Kherson. I know I may be severely underestimating the level of incompetence at play, but Russia could have spent more time evacuating soldiers by air, for example, they didn't have to announce they were leaving for sure, while there are still thousands of troops there. Makes no sense whatsoever. They haven't told their own troops on the ground for a week after it started getting posted on twitter and a month after there were news reports. Russian media started reporting it this week and the armed forces admitted to it a few days ago.
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Nov 11, 2022 01:21
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I do not buy any narrative that Russia is masterminding some grand plan here, the scale and volume of the discontent from basically every corner on the Russian side is way too great. Much simpler explanation is that a huge loving debacle is underway.
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Nov 11, 2022 02:02
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Rigel posted:I refuse to believe this is accurate, that Russia literally ignored Ukraine, negotiated with the USA, and got the USA to say " ok yes, we will not attack you", and then Ukraine proceeds to attack after not being a part of the conversation at all. If Russian leadership would like to sort this out, just slide into my DMs. I am fully authorized to negotiate with you.
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Nov 11, 2022 02:23
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It's going to be hilarious if in later years we learn that Shoigu or whomever called Secretary Austin and asked, "If we leave Kherson will you shoot us?" and a slightly confused Austin replied, "Um, no," while thinking, "We haven't shot you yet why would we start now?"
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Nov 11, 2022 02:28
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Pablo Bluth posted:It's like Dunkirk but with idiots. Dumbkirk
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Nov 11, 2022 02:49
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Paladinus posted:But Ukrainians were in no rush to storm Kherson. I know I may be severely underestimating the level of incompetence at play, but Russia could have spent more time evacuating soldiers by air, for example, they didn't have to announce they were leaving for sure, while there are still thousands of troops there. Makes no sense whatsoever. So Russia was caught between a rock and a hard place here. Clearly preparations were made for a more orderly pullback (let us take the news coming out so far at face value). There are two ways to do it. Ensure the survival of your best and most capable units by withdrawing them first and hope the lower quality troops left behind will be up to the task of playing rear guard or have your most capable units screen the defense to mitigate the chance of an uncontrolled collapse of the crossing sites. Someone mentioned Dunkirk and it is important to remember the French actually did the British a huge solid defending the evacuation beaches. We know which option the Russians took and indications are that the units filled with mobilized troops with minimal training are now panicking. The Ukrainians don't even appear to be exerting a real amount of pressure right now either. But I guess from the Russian viewpoint, as long as your contract regulars got out, the rest are relatively expendable and you just take another black eye. Will be interested in the total capture count in a few days.
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Nov 11, 2022 02:51
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Herstory Begins Now posted:I do not buy any narrative that Russia is masterminding some grand plan here, the scale and volume of the discontent from basically every corner on the Russian side is way too great. Much simpler explanation is that a huge loving debacle is underway. I think the closest to a "grand plan" they possibly had was to ferry their good troops over while ferrying mobiks to replace them to hold the line. But given how much high-end equipment seems to have been left behind, that's probably not true either.
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