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Sad King Billy posted:I might have to visit. How similar is Ukranian cuisine to Russian. one country is frozen wasteland known for conquering a large expanse of frozen swamps. the other is some of the most fertile land on the planet bit of an exaggeration, but generally ukrainian food isn't gonna be worse. also more raw bacon, which you should go for despite first impressions from the description both countries have adapted shaurma (gyros) as their de facto national fast food though along with the rest of the former USSR. shaurma conquers all
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Nov 11, 2022 05:46
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xposting this cuz it's relevantHerstory Begins Now posted:Good osint roundup of the state of bridges and crossings in the region E: Saint Celestine posted:What does it look like to be on the other end of a full grad barrage ? Content warning that the sound on this is loud and is of rockets hitting at quite close range https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nf1Cw1ZaA30 that's only a handful of rockets, too Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 05:55 on Nov 11, 2022 |
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Nov 11, 2022 05:52
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Charlz Guybon posted:The bottleneck that are the evacuation points are going to cause a massacre I'm not a big edm guy, is this Hard Bass?
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Nov 11, 2022 05:59
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Not even close to a full grouping of Grads, but here is drone footage of a russian rocket barrage being launched and then footage of the impact site: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6oN_XD69vZA
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Nov 11, 2022 06:43
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I'm not allowing myself to get too excited until someone walks up to those crossing approaches with a camera and films the wreckage.
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Nov 11, 2022 08:58
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It'll be whatever it'll be. That situation was months in the making and it's just coming to a head now. No one who isn't getting the direct info knows exactly what is going on in Kherson or around Nova Khakovka but what can be known is that there are conspicuously a lot of fresh videos coming out of civilians greeting troops coming into their villages https://twitter.com/vidtranslator/status/1590847263638790147 https://twitter.com/macergifford/status/1590710426861731841
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Nov 11, 2022 10:09
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Yeah I've seen those but not much footage of Russian vehicle wrecks piled at the crossing approaches
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Nov 11, 2022 10:57
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Yeah that's going to be a while
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Nov 11, 2022 11:23
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Finnish Helsingin Sanomat reports of photos going around of Antonivka bridge with some of the spans fallen down. Can't link because it's in the stupid tracking feed, but here's someone on twitter: https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1590986761488195584
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Nov 11, 2022 11:33
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Russian MOD claiming that the evacuation is complete and that no heavy equipment was left behind. Obviously heavy skepticism on the second part of the claim, but pretty impressive if they pulled ~20k troops out overnight.
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Nov 11, 2022 12:09
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Alchenar posted:Russian MOD claiming that the evacuation is complete and that no heavy equipment was left behind. Obviously heavy skepticism on the second part of the claim, but pretty impressive if they pulled ~20k troops out overnight. I have my doubts.
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Nov 11, 2022 12:17
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The US left behind billions in materiel in Afghanistan because they couldn't be hosed to try to pull it all out. Russia likely left behind ??? in materiel in Kherson for the same high-level reason, but unlike the US, the low-level reason wasn't "we can just make more lmao"
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Nov 11, 2022 12:21
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Live UA Map is reporting Ukrainians entering Kherson proper now. https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/11-november-ukrainian-military-entering-kherson
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Nov 11, 2022 12:40
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"we have left no key equipment behind. All vodka bottles have been safely secured"
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Nov 11, 2022 12:46
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Alchenar posted:Russian MOD claiming that the evacuation is complete and that no heavy equipment was left behind. Obviously heavy skepticism on the second part of the claim, but pretty impressive if they pulled ~20k troops out overnight. They said complete. As in they have finished pulling troops out. They did not say they pulled all their troops out. Just that they stopped and called it a day.
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Nov 11, 2022 13:00
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Kazinsal posted:The US left behind billions in materiel in Afghanistan because they couldn't be hosed to try to pull it all out. Russia likely left behind ??? in materiel in Kherson for the same high-level reason, but unlike the US, the low-level reason wasn't "we can just make more lmao" That's the exact same rationale the Russians have with their own soldiers.
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Nov 11, 2022 13:09
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https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1590804166204850177?t=ip8Y4fMurct3IFIN-0EENQ&s=19 Just so we're all on the same page. So far Russia has been fairly competent and well motivated whenever they retreat. I've seen claims that even during the Kharkiv offensive, they prioritized evacuating their artillery pieces and got most of them out. Which doesn't diminish the Ukrainian achievement in finally reclaiming Kherson.
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Nov 11, 2022 13:15
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SerthVarnee posted:They said complete. As in they have finished pulling troops out. They did not say they pulled all their troops out. Just that they stopped and called it a day. "How do we spin that the bridge blew up and anything remaining on the other side is hosed?" "Just say that the evacuation is complete."
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Nov 11, 2022 13:16
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Hannibal Rex posted:https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1590804166204850177?t=ip8Y4fMurct3IFIN-0EENQ&s=19 Kyiv withdrawal was more competent and even that left behind a mountain of equipment including some of their nicest stuff. Kharkiv withdrawal was considerably less orderly, both because it wasn't a planned withdrawal and because Ukraine was holding many of the roads that Russian forces were trying to use to withdraw. If you look on oryx at captured equipment, a huge portion of it came from Kharkiv offensive. Especially noticeable with later model t72s, all models of t80s and that was when they got their first t90m. They also got a bunch of both stationary artillery and spgs in the Kharkiv collapse so idk just how true that claim is. btw I think defmon is largely correct but as I alluded to previously wrt people framing it as a future tense thing, there's confusion around the timeframe of all this because reporting on what is happening is delayed significantly and Russian crossings have been known for a long time and Ukraine has been attacking Russian crossings basically at will for months now. It does appear that a final order to evacuate was given in the last few days despite the withdrawal having been likely a month or more in the making. one of the first places mobiks were reported turning up was in Kherson and that was contemporaneous with reports of more prestigious units finally getting rotated out.
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Nov 11, 2022 14:51
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Herstory Begins Now posted:They also got a bunch of both stationary artillery and spgs in the Kharkiv collapse so idk just how true that claim is. I read it on Tom Cooper's blog, but couldn't find the exact post or comment again. It might just have been inference based on the relatively low number of artillery captures compared to other systems. Cooper has been completely wrong before, but he also has some good insights at other times. It might have been based on reports such as this: https://twitter.com/Bogdan_Voron/status/1570319402460975105?s=20&t=nb49UKLPwmK03N9ZjYBYeQ In hindsight, it seems like Dara Massicot was pretty spot on: https://twitter.com/MassDara/status/1590418235866112003?s=20&t=nb49UKLPwmK03N9ZjYBYeQ
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Nov 11, 2022 15:47
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Hannibal Rex posted:https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1590804166204850177?t=ip8Y4fMurct3IFIN-0EENQ&s=19 What is 'goat lovers' aimed at? Chechnyans?
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Nov 11, 2022 16:53
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Hannibal Rex posted:I read it on Tom Cooper's blog, but couldn't find the exact post or comment again. It might just have been inference based on the relatively low number of artillery captures compared to other systems. Cooper has been completely wrong before, but he also has some good insights at other times. It might have been based on reports such as this: I'm guessing this is the post you're referring to? https://medium.com/@x_TomCooper_x/ukraine-war-16-september-2022-east-kharkiv-fae7688306e2 Interesting to note a couple things there that 1) idk how much that was an especially successful retreat that prioritized artillery vs just that artillery was likely the easiest stuff to get out due to not being as literally on the front lines albeit he makes a good case that the evacuation was triaged 2) that's specifically referencing 1st guards who if literally anyone in the Russian military should be able to execute under pressure it would be them and 3) it took Ukraine days to start meaningfully threatening to close the encirclement. Seems like a good post and imo it seems a lot more grounded in reality than a bunch of the most zealously pro-Ukraine stuff that seems to almost negligently play down Russia's ability to do anything at all competently. Obviously it's understandable why that happens, but it also diminishes understanding of what exactly went on in both Kharkiv and now Kherson where one of the defining realities of each is that Ukraine was up against some of Russia's best forces and, in different ways each time, still prevailed, which is far more impressive (and interesting) than the kind of popular narrative of Ukrainian light cav zerg rushing poorly trained russians who were too incompetent to even dig in. For all the structural and institutionalized corruption and incompetent leaders at various levels that undermines what the Russians do, I notice that you never really see Ukrainian forces say that Russia doesn't manage to mine the gently caress out of everything and keep bodies in workably good fighting positions who are plenty supplied to be effective with at least piles of AT weapons if nothing else. There certainly are people thrown into absolutely hopeless situations (guys being ordered to cross fields while being shelled and tracked by drones or the guys being forced to man positions around the industrial ponds outside Bakhmut come to mind), but by and large Russian front line positions seem to be effective enough. Sometimes very effective and it's worth noting that despite the Kharkiv offensive being ostensibly a frontal push on a key crossroads, it was only launched immediately after Ukraine blew up the vrf regional headquarters for the Kharkiv region and it relied on breaking through before the Russian military was able to re-establish command and control. On a related note, Massicot's thread from the 4th was also really good, and I think goes a long way to explain the peculiar look of the last week https://twitter.com/MassDara/status/1588592439928889345 I think she's been the most impressive of Rand's prominent Russia experts since this round of the war popped off. Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 17:28 on Nov 11, 2022 |
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Nov 11, 2022 17:26
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Herstory Begins Now posted:I think she's been the most impressive of Rand's prominent Russia experts since this round of the war popped off. Which, to be fair, hasn't always been a high bar: https://twitter.com/scharap/status/1484501166931206147
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Nov 11, 2022 17:40
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Sir John Falstaff posted:Which, to be fair, hasn't always been a high bar: I'll admit that I was also surprised by Russia's failures and Ukraine's successes. But my job description is "teach chemistry and environmental science to 16 year olds" not "make low six figures of taxpayer money to analyze Russia and Ukraine."
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Nov 11, 2022 17:55
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Stultus Maximus posted:I'll admit that I was also surprised by Russia's failures and Ukraine's successes. But my job description is "teach chemistry and environmental science to 16 year olds" not "make low six figures of taxpayer money to analyze Russia and Ukraine." Most analysts's jobs aren't to analyze russia and ukraine. They're there to say what the employer wants them to say.
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Nov 11, 2022 17:59
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As others have noted, any professional analyst who wrote "Russia will completely discard their doctrine to drive individual company elements of their force at full speed into Ukrainian defences, while jamming themselves so they can't make use of combined arms. Oh also they won't have any logistics plan and when they do start resupply operations they won't do any rear area security for their columns at all" would have been sacked for obviously having checked out and stopped caring.
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Nov 11, 2022 18:14
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Alchenar posted:As others have noted, any professional analyst who wrote "Russia will completely discard their doctrine to drive individual company elements of their force at full speed into Ukrainian defences, while jamming themselves so they can't make use of combined arms. Oh also they won't have any logistics plan and when they do start resupply operations they won't do any rear area security for their columns at all" would have been sacked for obviously having checked out and stopped caring. Nah Rand 100% deserves the shade being thrown at it. This was written within a week of Charap's piece https://csis-website-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/publication/220113_Wasielewski_Jones_RussiaUkraine.pdf A sample, quote:Once mechanized movement is ground to a halt by mud The whole piece is worth a read. It seems like a lot of how Russia would perform was indeed knowable. People who were involved in (or even significantly aware of) the modernization and training had a pretty clear conception of how the Russian invasion would likely go. Aside from them, it wasn't just the Russians who failed to grasp just how completely the armed forces of Ukraine of 2022 were not the armed forces of Ukraine of 2014. Hell what you wrote is nearly in there word for word. Worth pointing out though that some of the pre-war 'conventional wisdom' on Russian capability reflected the natsec tendency to err on the side of assuming enemy competence in order to plan more effectively for the worst case scenario. In that sense you can argue that it was effective to the extent that American responses were generally adequate and effective. On the other hand, reading stuff from before February you encounter a core issue where being an ostensible expert on Russia does not mean they know gently caress all about Ukraine and particularly not about recent developments in Ukraine. I mention conventional wisdom because while getting absolutely excorciated for that piece Charap defended it as reflecting the conventional wisdom, which is not wrong, but also people who were familiar with Ukraine and particularly Ukraine since 2014 were singing a completely different tune at the time. E: February 18th posted:Based on these concerns, Ukrainian forces with NATO help could counter Russian aggression by preparing to erode Russian army logistics and airpower through a focused use of its new territorial defense forces and the innovative provision of advanced air defense systems. Even if Russian forces seize territory, a Ukrainian guerrilla campaign could bog down Russian forces through sabotage, subversion, ambushes, and bombings. The rest of this section examines several factors that could raise the costs for Russia in a protracted war. [. . . .] In conclusion, writing a piece about how we shouldn't give Ukraine weapons because they'll do nothing did not at all reflect a widely held view among people who were familiar with Ukraine's situation. Very much the opposite. Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 19:53 on Nov 11, 2022 |
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Nov 11, 2022 18:59
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Hannibal Rex posted:https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1590804166204850177?t=ip8Y4fMurct3IFIN-0EENQ&s=19 I guess if we ignore the thousands of POWs and surprisingly high-end equipment that Ukraine found along the way, sure. They grabbed at least one Krasukha-4, and enough tanks to upgrade one of their own brigades to a newer model. If the story that Russia's been trickling back across the river for a few weeks ends up being true, it'll be their best retreat yet. Godholio fucked around with this message at 19:47 on Nov 11, 2022 |
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Nov 11, 2022 19:42
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Godholio posted:I guess if we ignore the thousands of POWs and surprisingly high-end equipment that Ukraine found along the way, sure. They grabbed at least one Krasukha-4, and enough tanks to upgrade one of their own brigades to a newer model. If you're talking about thousands of POWs, I'm going to ask what your source for that is. So far, at least to my understanding, initial statements about POW numbers after each Ukrainian offensive have never actually materialized. I'm happy to be proven wrong on this.
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Nov 11, 2022 20:04
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Hannibal Rex posted:If you're talking about thousands of POWs, I'm going to ask what your source for that is. So far, at least to my understanding, initial statements about POW numbers after each Ukrainian offensive have never actually materialized. I'm happy to be proven wrong on this. Well they took several hundred (source was Zelensky several days later) in Kharkiv in September so I'm extrapolating a bit as Russia's been on its heels for several months now. I'm not sure what you mean about "never actually materialized" though. Have there been clear corrections in the aftermath? Actual numbers are rarely released.
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Nov 11, 2022 20:27
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Godholio posted:.... Is a "Pyrrhic Retreat" now a thing? 
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Nov 11, 2022 20:36
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Just Another Lurker posted:Is a "Pyrrhic Retreat" now a thing? That's called a defeat
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Nov 11, 2022 20:54
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Can't defeat them if you can't keep up with their withdrawal pace.
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Nov 11, 2022 21:06
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Comrade Blyatlov posted:That's called a defeat Yeah, that's just not getting your rear end kicked quite as hard as you ought to have.
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Nov 11, 2022 21:09
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I probably shouldn't be but I'm kind of surprised by just how hard Russians are taking this. On the one hand it was a while coming, but on the other it feels like there was something uniquely offensive about having the strongest concentration of Russia's best forces bleed for months to defend Kherson in an uphill battle and then to just retreat in the night without having ever been defeated and to give Ukraine what is unquestionably the biggest victory and Russia the biggest loss of the war so far. Probably is also compounded by the sheer number of Russians who had a friend or family member deployed in the Kherson region
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Nov 11, 2022 21:13
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The battle has been going on for several months and for all that time the regime has been saying "fight to the last, absolutely no withdrawal, defeat is unacceptable, we are here forever". This was telegraphed as Russia's maximum effort, despite the fact that from the outside it was obviously a battle with the odds stacked as heavily in Ukraine's favour as they could ever hope to get, and despite that maximum effort it's all come to nothing. Every other defeat can be rationalised with 'it was a feint' or 'idiots didn't leave anyone in Kharkiv to defend'. Kharkiv was sacrificed to save Kherson and they still got outfought - it's reality hitting the end of a long chain of rationalisations.
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Nov 11, 2022 21:23
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Lemniscate Blue posted:Yeah, that's just not getting your rear end kicked quite as hard as you ought to have. You're giving me flashbacks to eve
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Nov 11, 2022 22:17
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Godholio posted:Well they took several hundred (source was Zelensky several days later) in Kharkiv in September so I'm extrapolating a bit as Russia's been on its heels for several months now. I'm not sure what you mean about "never actually materialized" though. Have there been clear corrections in the aftermath? Actual numbers are rarely released. Maybe I'm just misremembering, but I seem to recall early talk of thousands of POWs during/after the Kharkiv offensive too, that's why I was curious if there's something more concrete to go on this time. As far as numbers reported by the press rather than tweets, I've seen 2500+ Ukrainian POWs claimed in Russian hands, but only about a thousand Russian ones captured by Ukraine since the war began.
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Nov 11, 2022 22:46
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| # ? Jun 6, 2024 05:35 |
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Herstory Begins Now posted:I'm guessing this is the post you're referring to? https://medium.com/@x_TomCooper_x/ukraine-war-16-september-2022-east-kharkiv-fae7688306e2 Yeah, that was the original write-up. I actually remembered now that I first saw it in a youtube interview he did, which, I guess, will also give you an impression of the limits of his expertise... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DNX1vcDx7mg His assessment of Surovikin was more substantial and informative than what I'd seen elsewhere, and he also had a few good posts on the history of Chinese-Iranian drone co-development, back in September. https://medium.com/@x_TomCooper_x/ukraine-war-22-october-2022-7c2460746a7a quote:Contrary to previous officers in that position, Surovikin is an officer with ‘at least some semblance of air power background’. Sure, for most of his career he served in motor rifle troops of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation (VSRF). Then, from June 2016 until sometimes in summer 2017, Surovikin served as the Commander of the Russian Group of Forces in Syria. However, that’s when his career became ‘interesting’. As explained in [Cooper's book] Moscow’s Game of Poker, during his tour in Syria, Surovikin has managed several feats. He has unified the command of the Russian, Assadist, and Iranian forces in the country (so that they began seriously coordinating their operations, instead of each fighting an entirely different war); has directed the VKS-element of the Russian Group of Forces in Syria into interdicting the flow of supplies from Turkey to insurgent units on the frontlines; and has ‘successfully’ concluded the campaign of intentional targeting of civic authorities to the degree where these became dysfunctional. As a result, the insurgency found it impossible to maintain any kind of stockpiles of ammunition and supplies inside Syria; dozens of thousands of Syrians fled to Turkey; and the insurgency eventually had to withdraw into north-western Idlib. Perhaps unsurprisingly, in November 2017, Surovikin was appointed the Commander of the Air & Space Force (VKS).
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Nov 12, 2022 00:36
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