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The Question IRL posted:People I talk to do (almost brag) about not turning the heating on, but let's not pretend you have to conserve heating oil like it's bullets in a Resident Evil game. Actually, many people do in the UK. It's a serious crisis that has contributed to a third prime minister being appointed in six weeks. Our economy is in an extremely fragile state with 1 in 6 people having less than £100 in savings and gas bills doubling in many cases compared to a year ago, if not more. The thing about the UK is that it is a deceptively poor country, much of its wealth and assets are in London and the rest of the kingdom has significantly lower living standards than the rest of the developed west. The mild winter has been a massive boon to us, and a massive pain to Putin who was banking on the UK and the EU caving into pressure and panic buying gas again/raising sanctions.
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Nov 12, 2022 15:59
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One thing that needs to remembered in regards to gas is that while stockpiling is good, it cannot completely solve the problem of industrial gas consumption being much less flexible than domestic warming. Most homes with gas heating can supplement with electrical heat - the more wealthy and/or densely populated areas can even switch to other heating methods relatively quickly (central heating, pumps, pellets, etc.) - but industrial facilities relying on gas cannot easily reduce consumption, and in many cases aren't even properly geared for gradual reduction. So there is a paradox where during periods with low domestic heating requirements stockpiles are relatively easy to build - but where that buffer is much more fragile than it may seem at first glance because of the highly static underlying industrial consumption. The upside is that people don't get sick and cold from turning off industrial production as they do from not having their homes - but for some economies having industrial facilities shut down has knock-on effects due to those being part of supply chains, either via direct production or important by-products. It is looking much less grim in regards to gas supply going into this winter than most had expected - but having full stockpiles is not a guarantee there will not be significant problems due to diminished supply and increased demand. Not to mention that prices matter very much as those carry over to the rest of the world, and any kind of essential imported resource becoming more expensive in the third world can have disastrous consequences. Heck, even exported resources becoming more expensive can become a problem. African countries that suddenly have a much greater demand for their gas exports are at risk of contracting 'dutch disease' (ie being a petrostate requires very strong public institutions to avoid deleterious effects on the rest of the economy). This war has accelerated the transition away from gas in Europe, but it still is a long way in the future, and the sooner the war ends, the sooner Russia has a regime which Europe can accept as a trading partner, the better for the economies of the world. At a micro and macro level both. I greatly dislike the extent to which European politicians blame inflation on the war (it is a factor, but not the primary one), but still the war is bad for the European and global economy and stability. I don't think the effect is anywhere near a level where it allows Putin to blackmail Europe into anything, but sadly the populist tendency to blame inflation on the war and gloss over the effects of especially the monetary factor, may provide a greater public pressure to give in to the blackmail. Admitting that inflation is also very much caused by interest rates, outsourcing/offshoring and poor policy in general, is too painful for many governments, so instead they just blame Putin. Ironically that blame makes his diplomatic-economic power greater than it ought to be.
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Nov 12, 2022 17:02
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Budzilla posted:To add to this, Russia trains its troops by sending in the new recruits to the unit they will be deployed to, not some specialised base to learn their skills. This is a problem when your BTG is fighting a war and they have lost a lot of their trained soldiers already. Well, they did have some specialized training facilities - which they already deployed the trainers and vehicles to the front from earlier in the war.
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Nov 12, 2022 18:40
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Anyone know anything about this: https://mobile.twitter.com/thinktanktwink/status/1591073817501130754 The post itself appears to be Google translate from the Polish (no clue on the original source), which is probably about as reliable as me trying to understand the Polish via my bad Ukrainian... At any rate, if correct, this sort of thing seems like a good movement towards coming to terms with that part of history...
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Nov 12, 2022 19:01
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https://www.theguardian.com/world/l...conscripts-live Guardian says Russia declares new temporary capital of Henichesk for Kherson region. The Russians are right about it being temporary, but not for the reasons they think.
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Nov 12, 2022 19:19
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It's also more or less the maximum possible distance away they could move it. https://twitter.com/TpyxaNews/status/1591295578352361474/photo/1
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Nov 12, 2022 19:23
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was looking up what Verka was up to recently, and found this: https://twitter.com/khpg/status/1589392519435288576?s=20&t=JJZHSeui1_Gi5CMcMX_htw
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Nov 12, 2022 20:17
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Drone footage of the bridge at Kherson. It shows the damage done by the Ukrainians using HIMARS at the end too - looks like they had almost completely destroyed the surface of the bridge in that area by the end https://twitter.com/Blue_Sauron/status/1591512395406532609
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Nov 12, 2022 20:29
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Chalks posted:Drone footage of the bridge at Kherson. It shows the damage done by the Ukrainians using HIMARS at the end too - looks like they had almost completely destroyed the surface of the bridge in that area by the end That definitely explains why they were using ferries for the evacuation even before blowing the bridge.
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Nov 12, 2022 20:37
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Here's a still from that footage that shows it clearly: https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1591517530019205120 I wonder how many hits were required. Also check out the metal sheets stuck over the hole with car tracks over them. Brave drivers
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Nov 12, 2022 20:49
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Bug Squash posted:Europe is low-key in the middle of a fairly amazing heat anomaly. It's like a mild summer day at the moment, but it's November, so few people are turning on the heating. This won't last obviously, but it's given time to mitigate the looming heating crisis when winter does arrive. It's incredible good luck for Ukraine and Europe both, and means what hope Russia had to freeze Europe to submission is largely gone. Temperatures have dipped a bit in Belgium this past week (it's °8 right now), but yeah, I only turned on my central heating for the first time a few days ago. A very unexpected side effect of global warming is that it's helping to thwart Russia's plans.
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Nov 12, 2022 20:51
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Chalks posted:Drone footage of the bridge at Kherson. It shows the damage done by the Ukrainians using HIMARS at the end too - looks like they had almost completely destroyed the surface of the bridge in that area by the end Thankfully it looks like the main supports aren't majorly damaged so it should be relatively easy to rebuild it when the war is over.
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Nov 12, 2022 20:58
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Djarum posted:Thankfully it looks like the main supports aren't majorly damaged so it should be relatively easy to rebuild it when the war is over. Honestly it's a nights work for a decent engineering brigade to lay something down. It'll be a big undertaking to secure the Far side in advance, but if Russia really drops the ball we can imagine a surprise Ukrainian offensive crossing that clears sufficient space to start using the bridge.
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Nov 12, 2022 21:06
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Djarum posted:Thankfully it looks like the main supports aren't majorly damaged so it should be relatively easy to rebuild it when the war is over. That can only be intentional.
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Nov 12, 2022 21:29
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OddObserver posted:Anyone know anything about this: It's good. Officially, Poland views the killing of Poles in Galicia as an act of genocide and the UPA as a genocidal organization on the same level as Soviets and Nazis in terms of treatment of symbology, which has always created issues for some Ukrainians' free use of such symbols. In the lead up to the invasion, some of the first true psy-ops were cyber attacks masqueraded poorly as the work of Polish nationalists, and claims that Poland was going to annex Lviv.
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Nov 12, 2022 22:46
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Pablo Bluth posted:It's also more or less the maximum possible distance away they could move it. A truly historic moving of goalposts. I'm sure Putin's real happy that his failson of an army had to completely cut off their own access to their freshly annexed regional capital. And sure, the front-line just shrunk a bunch for Russia, but that's a very 2-edged sword. With such a hard barrier defending the majority of the Dnipro now, I imagine a lot of these Ukrainian counter-attackers will be showing up south of Zhaporizhzhia real soon. And the defenders at Bakmut will be real happy to get some fresh backup.
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Nov 12, 2022 22:59
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FishBulbia posted:It's good. Officially, Poland views the killing of Poles in Galicia as an act of genocide and the UPA as a genocidal organization on the same level as Soviets and Nazis in terms of treatment of symbology, which has always created issues for some Ukrainians' free use of such symbols. Mr. Apollo fucked around with this message at 23:36 on Nov 12, 2022 |
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Nov 12, 2022 23:05
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Mr. Apollo posted:I wouldn’t be surprised if that’s something Poland brings up after this is all said and done. “Remover how much we supported you? We’d now like to ask a favor.” I mean, asking for the exhumation of the victims seems to me like it already is implying that - no real need to wait on that, and it is basically free. Trading things that are worth money for things that aren't seems like a good thing for Ukraine, same as the steps they are taking to align with the EU standards in terms of norms and rules
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Nov 12, 2022 23:17
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BougieBitch posted:I mean, asking for the exhumation of the victims seems to me like it already is implying that - no real need to wait on that, and it is basically free. Trading things that are worth money for things that aren't seems like a good thing for Ukraine, same as the steps they are taking to align with the EU standards in terms of norms and rules It's also an indication that Ukraine is looking to the future not the past. A distinct difference from Russia.
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Nov 12, 2022 23:24
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One thing the war has down is given Ukraine many less controversial heroes to enshrine in the national pantheon, as others lose relevance
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Nov 12, 2022 23:49
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Chalks posted:Here's a still from that footage that shows it clearly:
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Nov 13, 2022 00:16
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Hannibal Rex posted:was looking up what Verka was up to recently, and found this:
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Nov 13, 2022 00:51
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https://mobile.twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1591488510804262912
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Nov 13, 2022 01:08
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Unconfirmed reports that Ukraine has got troops on the left bank, on the peninsula at the end of the Dnieper. It's closer to their logistics than the Russian ones, and they have the boats to do it, if not he helicopters and artillery to hold it.
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Nov 13, 2022 01:29
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Comstar posted:Unconfirmed reports that Ukraine has got troops on the left bank, on the peninsula at the end of the Dnieper. It's closer to their logistics than the Russian ones, and they have the boats to do it, if not he helicopters and artillery to hold it. Russia has had a whole bunch of arty there, and according to some reports it's where they launched some of their lovely Iranian V1 replicas from. I would not expect Ukraine to hold it, but if it was lightly defended some SOF on speedboats going there to remind the Russians why you do base security even when you don't think you're likely to be attacked might be a very good idea indeed.
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Nov 13, 2022 01:56
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It's the fact that they let their soldiers know that they don't give the slightest poo poo whether they live or die. Just straight up telling their soldiers that they're just meat for the grinder as they get stuffed into it.
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Nov 13, 2022 03:08
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BougieBitch posted:I mean, asking for the exhumation of the victims seems to me like it already is implying that - no real need to wait on that, and it is basically free. Trading things that are worth money for things that aren't seems like a good thing for Ukraine, same as the steps they are taking to align with the EU standards in terms of norms and rules hopefully one day poland will also align with the EU standards in terms of norms and rules
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Nov 13, 2022 09:22
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HolHorsejob posted:It's the fact that they let their soldiers know that they don't give the slightest poo poo whether they live or die. Just straight up telling their soldiers that they're just meat for the grinder as they get stuffed into it. It's like russia wanted to make this a warcrime unfocused enough that it's doing it to itself too
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Nov 13, 2022 09:58
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Ukraine and Poland are very close at this point and Poland could proverbially ask for Ukraine's first born and probably get it at this point. Hell for a dozen krabs, probably more than proverbially. Still nice to see old wrongs get righted.
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Nov 13, 2022 11:01
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Good https://twitter.com/PowerUSAID/status/1591393913499271168 https://twitter.com/PowerUSAID/status/1591393922382798848
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Nov 13, 2022 14:06
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A horrifying video surfaced on Wagner's semi-official tg channel GREY ZONE. It shows a man who was recruited by Wagner from prison, where he served his sentence for murder. The man deserted from Wagner and surrendered to AFU, and later gave an interview while in the POW camp, saying he was prepared to fight for Ukraine against Russia. In the video the man 'confesses' to treason, and says that while on a walk in Kyiv, he got hit on the head with a rock and woke up in a cellar. After that he's bludgeoned to death with a sledgehammer.GREY ZONE posted:-The Hammer of Vengeance-. Wagner's owner Prigozhin has also commented on this. Prigozhin posted:I prefer to watch the show in the theatre. As for the be-sledgehammered, this show demonstrates that he couldn't find happiness in Ukraine, but met with unkind but just people. I think this movie is called 'A Dog Dies a Dog's Death'. Great directorial work, easy to watch in one breath. I hope no animals were harmed during the filming. It's very unlikely that a POW, even a fully cooperating one, would be allowed to roam the streets of Kyiv unattended, so that part of the story sounds bogus to me. There are rumours that the victim was part of the latest POW exchange, as it allegedly included mainly Wagner mercenaries, hence why Russia didn't comment on it, while Ukraine did. Another version is this could have also happened right at the POW camp, where some captured mercenaries managed to bribe the guards to murder one of their own. On the list of war crimes, gruesome revenge killings are definitely up there. The open gleefulness about it from Wagner is sickening.
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Nov 13, 2022 14:36
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In lighter news, here is a supposed video of a Russian stealing a raccoon from Kherson zoo. Marked as  as the animal can be perceived to be in distress. https://mobile.twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1591756499604627457
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Nov 13, 2022 14:43
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ChubbyChecker posted:hopefully one day poland will also align with the EU standards in terms of norms and rules I mean, this can be true at the same time - ultimately, the fashy poo poo out of Poland will either fix itself or not, but it can only help for Ukraine and Poland to be on good terms. Removing one possible external enemy for the narrative and improving the impression Polish folks have towards Ukrainian immigrants is how you weaken the grip. The war itself obviously has inflamed some of the shittiness too, but if the anger stayed directed at Russia then perhaps Poland will end up on the same path of alignment with the EU to spite Russia eventually. Basically, between Hungary and Poland, Poland is inside the tent pissing out and Hungary is standing in the doorway spinning its dick around. The Polish anti-Russia trend is a lot easier to see a path out of the current situation than Hungary, and when you add Italy, Turkey, etc into consideration there are enough other bad guys that Poland doesn't seem as egregious given recent developments. I am a dumb American though, so if this is wildly off base then I'm happy to be corrected - the EE thread has dropped off the front page so I don't exactly have a good drip feed for news
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Nov 13, 2022 14:47
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Paladinus posted:It's very unlikely that a POW, even a fully cooperating one, would be allowed to roam the streets of Kyiv unattended, so that part of the story sounds bogus to me. There are rumours that the victim was part of the latest POW exchange, as it allegedly included mainly Wagner mercenaries, hence why Russia didn't comment on it, while Ukraine did. Another version is this could have also happened right at the POW camp, where some captured mercenaries managed to bribe the guards to murder one of their own. Gulagu.net, citing their sources in Wagner and in Kyiv, confirm that he was returned to Russia in the latest exchange. Gulagu.net claim that according to their Wagner source, Prigozhin, through his FSB pals, leaked to SBU that the victim was actually a double agent, and then pushed for him to be included in the exchange list as a must. The Ukrainian source they cite seems to confirm that, and also claims that Ukrainian command considers to stop interviewing POWs altogether to avoid cases like this in the future. Allegedly, some higher-ups may even lose their jobs because of this. There is, however, no official statement from Kyiv just yet.
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Nov 13, 2022 14:58
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Wagner really needs to be declared a terrorist organization and dealt with as such. This can't happen soon enough.
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Nov 13, 2022 15:22
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Paladinus posted:Gulagu.net, citing their sources in Wagner and in Kyiv, confirm that he was returned to Russia in the latest exchange. Gulagu.net claim that according to their Wagner source, Prigozhin, through his FSB pals, leaked to SBU that the victim was actually a double agent, and then pushed for him to be included in the exchange list as a must. The Ukrainian source they cite seems to confirm that, and also claims that Ukrainian command considers to stop interviewing POWs altogether to avoid cases like this in the future. Allegedly, some higher-ups may even lose their jobs because of this. There is, however, no official statement from Kyiv just yet. This kind of sums up the two countries. Ukraine sees a morally reprehensible problem and holds their leaders accountable for poor judgment, however understandable such judgment may be. Russia sees the same problem and just doubles down on being evil. Good idea, too, about naming Wagner a terrorist organization. They are, and have been, as many people in Syria can already attest.
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Nov 13, 2022 16:00
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About 10,000 dead per month. https://mobile.twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1591584124850028549
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Nov 13, 2022 16:13
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https://youtu.be/Fz59GWeTIik new Perun about 'Vranyo' - systemic bullshitting that everyone is aware of and its impact on decision making. Nothing too surprising, but an interesting look at it in the context of the Russian military.
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Nov 13, 2022 16:16
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KitConstantine posted:interesting little sideshow - apparently Dugin is real pissed about the retreat from Kherson: I beg people for the love of god to stop paying attention to Putin's Dark Professor. He's not part of the "propaganda machine" -- he's not influential and has essentially been removed from the establishment. FishBulbia fucked around with this message at 16:27 on Nov 13, 2022 |
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Nov 13, 2022 16:22
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Paladinus posted:The Ukrainian source they cite seems to confirm that, and also claims that Ukrainian command considers to stop interviewing POWs altogether to avoid cases like this in the future. If only there was some sort of convention about the treatment of POWs, that prohibited publishing videos of them.
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Nov 13, 2022 17:17
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