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haveblue
Aug 15, 2005



Toilet Rascal
There are also crypto-specific threads in GBS and YOSPOS and probably other places

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evilweasel
Aug 24, 2002

This is an amazing stat that says the house is going to be one of the funniest legislatures in the world for the next two years:

https://twitter.com/taniel/status/1591893144567959553?s=46&t=XdQiP1BZmFr4ib8l_6Jzfw

JosefStalinator
Oct 9, 2007

Come Tbilisi if you want to live.




Grimey Drawer

evilweasel posted:

This is an amazing stat that says the house is going to be one of the funniest legislatures in the world for the next two years:

https://twitter.com/taniel/status/1591893144567959553?s=46&t=XdQiP1BZmFr4ib8l_6Jzfw

One thing to keep in mind is that a handful of those vacancies, especially early ones, came because the Biden admin appointed people to federal spots. Some were also just regular resignations in safe seats. If the house majority is at risk, quite a few of the resignations/appointments wouldn't happen. I'd expect a record low number of vacancies in a tight House majority either way.

That said, there definitely will be a few deaths, so it's still chaos!

haveblue
Aug 15, 2005



Toilet Rascal
The funniest option is the house flips because someone gets imprisoned

Young Freud
Nov 26, 2006

evilweasel posted:

This is an amazing stat that says the house is going to be one of the funniest legislatures in the world for the next two years:

https://twitter.com/taniel/status/1591893144567959553?s=46&t=XdQiP1BZmFr4ib8l_6Jzfw

No vacations EVER for the GOP congresspeople if they take power. Boebert should hope she loses because she'll have to work a full-time job for the first time in her life.

haveblue posted:

The funniest option is the house flips because someone gets imprisoned

I fully expect this to happen. The J6 inquiries are to go on until the new session starts and they're bound to find something.

Young Freud fucked around with this message at 00:36 on Nov 14, 2022

pencilhands
Aug 20, 2022

So given what happened this year, is there now a chance 2024 isnt a bloodbath of epic proportions in the senate for the democrats? I’m starting to feel a slight bit of hope….

Goatse James Bond
Mar 28, 2010

If you see me posting please remind me that I have Charlie Work in the reports forum to do instead

Young Freud posted:

No vacations EVER for the GOP congresspeople if they take power. Boebert should hope she loses because she'll have to work a full-time job for the first time in her life.

I fully expect this to happen. The J6 inquiries are to go on until the new session starts and they're bound to find something.

she's completely loving nuts but she worked for McDonald's and then oil/gas companies

instead she'll throw a tantrum about her comfort gun or Mccarthy turning down her demand to investigate the caverns under Denver Airport run by the demon horse

Kalli
Jun 2, 2001



pencilhands posted:

So given what happened this year, is there now a chance 2024 isnt a bloodbath of epic proportions in the senate for the democrats? I’m starting to feel a slight bit of hope….

Can Biden figure out a few things he can do Executive actions on to convince Gen Z to come vote for D's again?

Automata 10 Pack
Jun 21, 2007

Ten games published by Automata, on one cassette

Kalli posted:

Can Biden figure out a few things he can do Executive actions on to convince Gen Z to come vote for D's again?

They can make voting more accessible, or keep it as accessible as it is.

I think learning about and utilizing early and mail in voting really helped the youth turnout.

Automata 10 Pack
Jun 21, 2007

Ten games published by Automata, on one cassette
Also: weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeed

pencilhands
Aug 20, 2022

Open abortion clinics on federal property in chud states

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010

GreyjoyBastard posted:

she's completely loving nuts but she worked for McDonald's and then oil/gas companies

instead she'll throw a tantrum about her comfort gun or Mccarthy turning down her demand to investigate the caverns under Denver Airport run by the demon horse
Is this something you made up on the spot, or is it actually a reference to something?

Mizaq
Sep 12, 2001

Monkey Magic
Toilet Rascal
What if the states made it illegal to go onto federal property in order to get an abortion?

nine-gear crow
Aug 10, 2013

Charlz Guybon posted:

Is this something you made up on the spot, or is it actually a reference to something?

There's been a long running conspiracy that there's a massive underground complex of nefarious purposes that was built beneath Denver International Airport during it's construction in 1995. The airport is also home to a massive blue horse statue known as the Blue Mustang, which has been nicknamed Blucifer, because, well, it looks like loving THIS

lobster shirt
Jun 14, 2021

Charlz Guybon posted:

Is this something you made up on the spot, or is it actually a reference to something?

it's a real thing people believe, lots of weird conspiracy theories exist about the denver airport

Goatse James Bond
Mar 28, 2010

If you see me posting please remind me that I have Charlie Work in the reports forum to do instead

Charlz Guybon posted:

Is this something you made up on the spot, or is it actually a reference to something?

it's a crazy reference, but it's a reference

the Denver Airport has an actual modest tunnel system under it and also, its mascot is a big creepy metal horse statue that, upon completion, fell on its maker and killed him

Fister Roboto
Feb 21, 2008

Space Cadet Omoly posted:

Sinema is an idiot and a liar, even by politician standards, so I'm pretty willing to discount this as total bullshit unless literally any other senator has made statements indicating it's true.

It's definitely not outside the realm of possibility though. The alternative is that all 48 other Democratic senators are in total agreement on wanting good things, and it's just a complete coincidence that there are exactly enough conservative Dems to impede their agenda. Not saying that that's definitely untrue, but I think it would be foolish to just assume that Sinema is completely making poo poo up.

I also don't think she's an idiot. She knows what she's doing.

In any case it's going to be interesting to see whether Dem leadership is serious about dealing with her and Manchin or not. My prediction is that :decorum: will prevail and they'll continue to handle them them with kid gloves, but I'd love to be proven wrong.

Oracle
Oct 9, 2004

In their defense Denver Airport is loving weird as poo poo.

pencilhands
Aug 20, 2022

Mizaq posted:

What if the states made it illegal to go onto federal property in order to get an abortion?

Make them enforce it. Women’s rights over their own bodies are at stake. Playtime is over

Tayter Swift
Nov 18, 2002

Pillbug

nine-gear crow posted:

There's been a long running conspiracy that there's a massive underground complex of nefarious purposes that was built beneath Denver International Airport during it's construction in 1995. The airport is also home to a massive blue horse statue known as the Blue Mustang, which has been nicknamed Blucifer, because, well, it looks like loving THIS



Fun fact Blucifer fell over and killed its maker during its construction.

Main Paineframe
Oct 27, 2010

Fister Roboto posted:

It's definitely not outside the realm of possibility though. The alternative is that all 48 other Democratic senators are in total agreement on wanting good things, and it's just a complete coincidence that there are exactly enough conservative Dems to impede their agenda. Not saying that that's definitely untrue, but I think it would be foolish to just assume that Sinema is completely making poo poo up.

I also don't think she's an idiot. She knows what she's doing.

In any case it's going to be interesting to see whether Dem leadership is serious about dealing with her and Manchin or not. My prediction is that :decorum: will prevail and they'll continue to handle them them with kid gloves, but I'd love to be proven wrong.

It's literally a 50/50 Senate right now. It's not "a complete coincidence" that there's enough conservative Dems to impede their agenda, because the Dems have zero leeway and even one conservative Dem is enough to impede anything. And it's not "exactly enough" conservative Dems to impede their agenda, because there were in fact two conservative Dems openly blocking legislation this year, even though only one was needed to block legislation.

Discendo Vox
Mar 21, 2013

We don't need to have that dialogue because it's obvious, trivial, and has already been had a thousand times.
And the Dems did in fact pass some legislation. By this falsification-proof framing, any blockage less than the full, theorized ideal set of policies can be a “coincidence” proving conspiracy.

Fister Roboto
Feb 21, 2008

Discendo Vox posted:

And the Dems did in fact pass some legislation. By this falsification-proof framing, any blockage less than the full, theorized ideal set of policies can be a “coincidence” proving conspiracy.

I never claimed that the Dems didn't pass anything at all. I'd appreciate if you don't accuse me of being a conspiracy theorist based on this, thank you.

Maine Paineframe is right though, I was misremembering things. But I stand by my belief that it is possible that what Sinema said is true. There is certainly evidence of there being many other conservative Dems, as we saw in the $15 minimum wage vote in 2021. Sinema got the most attention for her vote, but there were seven other Democratic senators who voted against it.

Neither side of the argument is fully provable right now, but the next two years will provide evidence either way, I think.

Name Change
Oct 9, 2005


We got to the point where all but two Dem senators were in favor of removing the filibuster.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/interactive/2021/filibuster-vote-count/

This would have been an earth-shattering change in the Senate, of enormously more importance even than a $15 minimum wage.

Main Paineframe
Oct 27, 2010
Personally, I think the argument fundamentally misunderstands the nature of the Senate. After all, those seven senators didn't need to defect to block the minimum wage bill - just one Dem vote against was enough to block it.

Manchin alone or Sinema alone could have blocked that bill, but instead, five other Dems (and Angus King) joined those two in voting against the bill, even though they didn't need to at all. If Sinema is representing a larger group that's hiding behind her, why didn't they hide behind her and Manchin there too? Why did they reveal themselves?

For me, the answer is far simpler: those six senators opposed a $15 minimum wage but don't oppose re-establishing Roe. Because even though we lump them together into groups and factions, each and every senator is an individual with their own views, positions, and lines in the sand. There's no doubt that there are several senators that are more conservative than Chuck Schumer, but less conservative than Joe Manchin.

If Manchin and Sinema were magically replaced with progressive Dems, one or two of those other conservative Dems would be the ones blocking Dem legislation and setting the limit of what Dems can do. But that doesn't mean that Manchin was just a rotating villain and that he's been swapped out for another. Those other conservative Dems will care about some issues that Manchin didn't care about, and will let some things pass that Manchin would have blocked. It's entirely possible to have 48 senators in favor of reestablishing Roe while only having 42 senators in favor of raising the minimum wage. If we added three more progressive senators, then we would be able to put Roe in legislation, but still wouldn't have enough votes to raise the minimum wage.

Ravenfood
Nov 4, 2011

Main Paineframe posted:

There's no doubt that there are several senators that are more conservative than Chuck Schumer, but less conservative than Joe Manchin.
Also, how "conservative" someone is varies notably on different issues. Manchin sucks particularly hard because climate change is important and he is a catastrophe there, but with an additional dem senator you have a bit more room to maneuver. Maybe you can afford to ditch Manchin on one particular bill and on another bill hypothetical Senator A has some kind of bugbear about the bill but Manchin is fine with it. They certainly aren't monoliths as a party and they aren't all on an identical line of varying degrees of "liberalness". It'll change by position.

And that doesn't mean there are "rotating villains" just that the realities of local politics and individual Senator values mean that some might vote differently. Senator A above isn't giving "cover" for Manchin to vote for the bill.

Discendo Vox
Mar 21, 2013

We don't need to have that dialogue because it's obvious, trivial, and has already been had a thousand times.

Main Paineframe posted:

Personally, I think the argument fundamentally misunderstands the nature of the Senate. After all, those seven senators didn't need to defect to block the minimum wage bill - just one Dem vote against was enough to block it.

Manchin alone or Sinema alone could have blocked that bill, but instead, five other Dems (and Angus King) joined those two in voting against the bill, even though they didn't need to at all. If Sinema is representing a larger group that's hiding behind her, why didn't they hide behind her and Manchin there too? Why did they reveal themselves?

For me, the answer is far simpler: those six senators opposed a $15 minimum wage but don't oppose re-establishing Roe. Because even though we lump them together into groups and factions, each and every senator is an individual with their own views, positions, and lines in the sand. There's no doubt that there are several senators that are more conservative than Chuck Schumer, but less conservative than Joe Manchin.

If Manchin and Sinema were magically replaced with progressive Dems, one or two of those other conservative Dems would be the ones blocking Dem legislation and setting the limit of what Dems can do. But that doesn't mean that Manchin was just a rotating villain and that he's been swapped out for another. Those other conservative Dems will care about some issues that Manchin didn't care about, and will let some things pass that Manchin would have blocked. It's entirely possible to have 48 senators in favor of reestablishing Roe while only having 42 senators in favor of raising the minimum wage. If we added three more progressive senators, then we would be able to put Roe in legislation, but still wouldn't have enough votes to raise the minimum wage.

Yeah, that’s my point. The scope of “good things” and “their agenda” gets readjusted to whatever can’t pass with the current Senate composition. In this way, any outcome is a suspicious coincidence.

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

Fister Roboto
Feb 21, 2008

Main Paineframe posted:

Personally, I think the argument fundamentally misunderstands the nature of the Senate. After all, those seven senators didn't need to defect to block the minimum wage bill - just one Dem vote against was enough to block it.

Manchin alone or Sinema alone could have blocked that bill, but instead, five other Dems (and Angus King) joined those two in voting against the bill, even though they didn't need to at all. If Sinema is representing a larger group that's hiding behind her, why didn't they hide behind her and Manchin there too? Why did they reveal themselves?

For me, the answer is far simpler: those six senators opposed a $15 minimum wage but don't oppose re-establishing Roe. Because even though we lump them together into groups and factions, each and every senator is an individual with their own views, positions, and lines in the sand. There's no doubt that there are several senators that are more conservative than Chuck Schumer, but less conservative than Joe Manchin.

If Manchin and Sinema were magically replaced with progressive Dems, one or two of those other conservative Dems would be the ones blocking Dem legislation and setting the limit of what Dems can do. But that doesn't mean that Manchin was just a rotating villain and that he's been swapped out for another. Those other conservative Dems will care about some issues that Manchin didn't care about, and will let some things pass that Manchin would have blocked. It's entirely possible to have 48 senators in favor of reestablishing Roe while only having 42 senators in favor of raising the minimum wage. If we added three more progressive senators, then we would be able to put Roe in legislation, but still wouldn't have enough votes to raise the minimum wage.

I think your answer is sound, and I hope that you're right about it. At the very least, being able to codify Roe but not a $15 minimum wage would be consistent for the Dems as a liberal capitalist party.

I don't necessarily agree with the "rotating villain" theory as it is usually discussed here, in the sense that it is a coordinated effort by the whole of the Democratic party to bamboozle their voter base. There's no need to believe that the entire party is in on it when it could just be a a small faction of conservative senators coordinating together. Or not even necessarily coordinating; they could just be opportunistically hiding behind Sinema as individuals. Regardless of the actual explanation, though, what we can see of it is 1-2 senators obstructing the party's agenda and a party leadership that is seemingly unable to stop them.

Foxfire_
Nov 8, 2010

Fister Roboto posted:

Regardless of the actual explanation, though, what we can see of it is 1-2 senators obstructing the party's agenda and a party leadership that is seemingly unable to stop them.
That happens in any situation where the senators aren't a monolith though. Somebody is always the 50th vote and they determine what you can pass. And unless you have a huge majority, the tipping point vote is going to be at the edge, not in the center of what your party wants. Flipping seats so that the 50th vote moves left is still useful and changes what legislation can get passed.

PhazonLink
Jul 17, 2010
I want to be in the timeline where Dark Biden adds a massive erection to Blucifer.

nine-gear crow
Aug 10, 2013

PhazonLink posted:

I want to be in the timeline where Dark Biden adds a massive erection to Blucifer.

Dark Brandon will be added to Blucipher and his erection will be larger than the horse's :dong:

Eric Cantonese
Dec 21, 2004

You should hear my accent.
So any of you got a take on this drama over Chris Magnus? He just had to resign as head of Customs and Border Protection.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/12/us/chris-magnus-resigns-cbp.html

quote:

When Mr. Biden appointed Mr. Magnus, a former police chief with a reputation for bringing reform, he was the first openly gay commissioner of the agency. Democrats hoped his decades of experience running police departments and changing longstanding law enforcement cultures would bring what many had considered to be much-needed reform to the U.S. Border Patrol, an agency that is part of C.B.P.

The Border Patrol has long been criticized for its white male-dominated work force and persistent problems with discrimination both inside the agency and in its treatment of migrants.

Mr. Magnus said that efforts he had made to address some of those issues were met with constant pushback from the Border Patrol, which, through its union, has harshly criticized the Biden administration for its border policies and also called for a Republican-led House to impeach Mr. Mayorkas. In the end, Mr. Magnus said, the secretary sided with the Border Patrol. The union said “good riddance” to Mr. Magnus in a Twitter post on Friday.

“He was so busy chasing imaginary ‘culture’ problems in B.P., he forgot his primary job,” the union wrote. The union president has said that Mr. Magnus should have been focused on finding solutions to the high number of illegal border crossings. “B.P. doesn’t have a culture problem. It has a leadership problem, starting with Biden.”

It doesn't give me high hopes that much can be done with changing how CBP operates. It also reinforces my worries about how powerful (in all the wrong ways) the border patrol's union is. I hope they can find a replacement soon, though.

lobster shirt
Jun 14, 2021

the problem with the CBP is the same problem you have with police as a whole, which is, the kind of person who wants to do that job is the last person who actually be allowed to do it

Name Change
Oct 9, 2005


Eric Cantonese posted:

So any of you got a take on this drama over Chris Magnus? He just had to resign as head of Customs and Border Protection.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/12/us/chris-magnus-resigns-cbp.html

It doesn't give me high hopes that much can be done with changing how CBP operates. It also reinforces my worries about how powerful (in all the wrong ways) the border patrol's union is. I hope they can find a replacement soon, though.

CBP is an infamously lovely organization to the extent that Trump and his people recognized they could weaponize it for dirty tricks, because it often attracts people chuddy enough that they are eager to become brownshirts and secret police: https://www.yahoo.com/news/operation-whistle-pig-inside-the-secret-cbp-unit-with-no-rules-that-investigates-americans-100000147.html

I would say it actually exceeds how lovely cops can be because cops from everything I can gather are held to higher standards. Let that sink in.

It's not great when the union is openly chuddy on social media. The whole thing is also protected from reform by being firmly planted in the middle of a political nerve center in America.

Captain_Maclaine
Sep 30, 2001

Every moment that I'm alive, I pray for death!

PhazonLink posted:

the timeline where Dark Biden adds a massive erection to Blucifer.

Mike Pence suddenly becomes very conflicted about his party affiliation.

Goatse James Bond
Mar 28, 2010

If you see me posting please remind me that I have Charlie Work in the reports forum to do instead

Eric Cantonese posted:

So any of you got a take on this drama over Chris Magnus? He just had to resign as head of Customs and Border Protection.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/12/us/chris-magnus-resigns-cbp.html

It doesn't give me high hopes that much can be done with changing how CBP operates. It also reinforces my worries about how powerful (in all the wrong ways) the border patrol's union is. I hope they can find a replacement soon, though.

that... does not sound good

i knew mayorkas was not on board with the "send all the shitters to secure the Montana border against maple syrup smugglers" sort of justified purge reform plan but this is a bummer

PT6A
Jan 5, 2006

Public school teachers are callous dictators who won't lift a finger to stop children from peeing in my plane
The great irony about how CBP operates in the States is the number of absolute loving morons both Canada and Mexico encounter trying to exercise their 2nd amendment rights in a completely different country, and the moaning that occurs when our authorities enforce our own laws on our own soil.

Space Cadet Omoly
Jan 15, 2014

~Groovy~


Fister Roboto posted:

It's definitely not outside the realm of possibility though. The alternative is that all 48 other Democratic senators are in total agreement on wanting good things, and it's just a complete coincidence that there are exactly enough conservative Dems to impede their agenda. Not saying that that's definitely untrue, but I think it would be foolish to just assume that Sinema is completely making poo poo up.

I also don't think she's an idiot. She knows what she's doing.

In any case it's going to be interesting to see whether Dem leadership is serious about dealing with her and Manchin or not. My prediction is that :decorum: will prevail and they'll continue to handle them them with kid gloves, but I'd love to be proven wrong.

Based on what? Her approval ratings are rock bottom and she's already being set up to get primaried by Ruben Gallego. Nothing about what she's done seems to have worked for her or accomplished anything.

Fister Roboto
Feb 21, 2008

Pure conjecture, though mainly I just don't find the idea of her being an idiot to be a very satisfying explanation. Her actions might not make sense in terms of maintaining a career in politics, but that might not be what she wants. There's plenty of grift to be had as a former senator, especially if she goes for the "the Democrats are just too woke for me now" angle.

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Ghost Leviathan
Mar 2, 2017

Exploration is ill-advised.

Sodomy Hussein posted:

CBP is an infamously lovely organization to the extent that Trump and his people recognized they could weaponize it for dirty tricks, because it often attracts people chuddy enough that they are eager to become brownshirts and secret police: https://www.yahoo.com/news/operation-whistle-pig-inside-the-secret-cbp-unit-with-no-rules-that-investigates-americans-100000147.html

I would say it actually exceeds how lovely cops can be because cops from everything I can gather are held to higher standards. Let that sink in.

It's not great when the union is openly chuddy on social media. The whole thing is also protected from reform by being firmly planted in the middle of a political nerve center in America.

This is why people talk about how you have to defund the police. You cannot reform them. At best, you need to smash their unions just to start.

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