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Fuckers at visegrad24 can’t just report the news, had to put article 5 in there. One has to wonder about the very real connections to Polish government this account has.
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Nov 15, 2022 19:45
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lol the issue isn't Poland escalating the issue is russia hitting loving NATO countries with missiles
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Nov 15, 2022 19:49
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Saladman posted:precision bombings of powerplants and bridges* Baby formula factories
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Nov 15, 2022 19:51
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Anne Frank Funk posted:Fuckers at visegrad24 can’t just report the news, had to put article 5 in there. One has to wonder about the very real connections to Polish government this account has. If Poland invoked article 5 because of this, NATO would just say, "sure, we will help you control your airspace from stray munitions."
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Nov 15, 2022 19:52
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TheDeadlyShoe posted:yeah agreed this is escalationrisk.jpg Not really. poo poo like this has happened before and will happen again, nobody is starting a world war over accidents.
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Nov 15, 2022 19:53
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Herstory Begins Now posted:lol the issue isn't Poland escalating the issue is russia hitting loving NATO countries with missiles Do you think Articles 5 should be triggered because of this?
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Nov 15, 2022 19:53
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Anne Frank Funk posted:Do you think Articles 5 should be called because of this? article 5 does not mean full nuclear annihilation, it's an obligation to respond to an attack on the soil of another member, not 'a single scratch and we nuke you' with that said, there's a pretty strong reason to signal that Russia should never be having 'accidents' on NATO countries, so who knows what will happen
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Nov 15, 2022 19:54
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You could imagine NATO countries using their domestic air defences to shoot down Russian missiles that come within range. Covering a bunch of territory along the Ukrainian border incidentally since Russia can't be trusted to hit poo poo in the same country as their target.
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Nov 15, 2022 19:54
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I could see this being used as a good reason to establish a more advanced air defense network over western Ukraine, but that's about it.
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Nov 15, 2022 19:55
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Anne Frank Funk posted:Do you think Articles 5 should be triggered because of this? I don't think NATO is going to invade Russia over this but it does potentially result in Poland demanding an end to the missile attacks or similar, or stating they'll fire on any Russian missiles or aircraft that approach their borders. Even if the government doesn't want to make a big deal about it, a lot depends on how the Polish people react - governments usually want to avoid looking weak to their constituents, even if the leaders themselves don't want to escalate anything.
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Nov 15, 2022 19:56
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Chalks posted:You could imagine NATO countries using their domestic air defences to shoot down Russian missiles that come within range. Covering a bunch of territory along the Ukrainian border incidentally since Russia can't be trusted to hit poo poo in the same country as their target. Yeah I think this is the likely measure they will go with. Nato puts a bunch more defenses along the border to "protect poland" but will also likely fire on any missile that targets too close to the border.
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Nov 15, 2022 19:56
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Anne Frank Funk posted:Do you think Articles 5 should be called because of this? If it happened, then yes. Article 5 does not necessarily mean war. It means that an attack (even an unintentional one) on one member is an attack on all members. The response would be to seek to remove the security threat and thus to demand that Russia cease to fire missile at western Ukraine. Hopefully Russia would accept this and that would be the end of that. If Russia kept threatening the security of a NATO member, then there would be a need to proactively prevent this from re-occuring. For example by having AA systems actively targeting Russian cruise missiles in western Ukraine. But as I said, hopefully this would not be necessary. And hopefully this incident didn't actually occur - because if it did, then the risk of escalation just went up.
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Nov 15, 2022 19:56
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The US used article 5 after 9/11 to ask for allies to patrol their airspace. I imagine it would be something like that.
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Nov 15, 2022 19:57
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Anne Frank Funk posted:Do you think Articles 5 should be triggered because of this? Russia just murdered two civilians in NATO territory. I'm not suggesting full-on war but the response has to be real and very painful for Russia, this is not the kind of poo poo you can just let slide, or it's going to keep happening and Russia will say it's Ukraine's fault for not wanting to be crushed under Russia's boot.
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Nov 15, 2022 19:57
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Chalks posted:You could imagine NATO countries using their domestic air defences to shoot down Russian missiles that come within range. Covering a bunch of territory along the Ukrainian border incidentally since Russia can't be trusted to hit poo poo in the same country as their target. This is what I'm thinking, not a no-fly-zone for all of Ukraine, but establishing one over a radius of Ukraine near NATO borders. Would still be a giant escalation and 2 people might not tip it over, but Poland is going to be PISSED and they are one of Ukraine's most aggressive supporters.
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Nov 15, 2022 19:58
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thekeeshman posted:I'm not suggesting full-on war but the response has to be real and very painful for Russia This is just not going to happen. Orthanc6 posted:This is what I'm thinking, not a no-fly-zone for all of Ukraine, but establishing one over a radius of Ukraine near NATO borders. Would still be a giant escalation and 2 people might not tip it over, but Poland is going to be PISSED and they are one of Ukraine's most aggressive supporters. We've gone over this a million times earlier this year. A no-fly zone is a de facto declaration of war.
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Nov 15, 2022 19:58
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Please use aerial bombing campaign rather than no-fly zone, which is an euphemism.
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Nov 15, 2022 20:01
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TheRat posted:This is just not going to happen. I would argue a no-fly zone specifically for missiles within X kilometers of the border would not be because you are not killing anyone and Russia has already hosed up and shown that it might be a reasonable measure. People get way less pissed off when you shoot down or capture a drone vs when you shoot down a plane with someone in it.
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Nov 15, 2022 20:01
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A no fly zone over much of western Ukraine would require zero enforcement against Russian airpower because Russian aircraft don't penetrate deep into Ukraine anymore. Hell, even central Ukraine. Russia simply does not go meaningfully past the front line because Ukrainian air defense systems are quite goodFishBulbia posted:Please use aerial bombing campaign rather than no-fly zone, which is an euphemism. aerial bombing campaign against what Russian air or air defense assets in western Ukraine?
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Nov 15, 2022 20:02
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Not confirmation as such, but indications that it could have happened: (US official: Russian missiles crossed into Poland, killing 2) https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-zelenskyy-kherson-9202c032cf3a5c22761ee71b52ff9d52
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Nov 15, 2022 20:03
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FishBulbia posted:If Poland invoked article 5 because of this, NATO would just say, "sure, we will help you control your airspace from stray munitions." Correct. Just like if Turkey decided to invoke art5 on the bomb attack in Istanbul, it wouldn't mean the immediate occupation of Sweden and internment of all kebab kiosk workers there. Also the primary responsibility on national defence is on the member itself. That said, it would be strange if NATO and EU didn't bring this up on the highest level with some stern words to Russia. This is not a direction that will help Russia with their goals.
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Nov 15, 2022 20:04
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As for why that town - there's a Ukrainian water treatment plant essentially due East of the city in Poland that was hit - just north of Sokal in Lviv Oblast. And Russia was demonstrably targeting infrastructure today  I don't see any other reasons why a missile would be in that area unless there's some kind of military installation nearby that isn't listed publically. It's fairly far north of Lviv proper and too far west of the main power installations in the area I could find
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Nov 15, 2022 20:06
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Herstory Begins Now posted:lol the issue isn't Poland escalating the issue is russia hitting loving NATO countries with missiles While warcriming.
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Nov 15, 2022 20:08
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Herstory Begins Now posted:aerial bombing campaign against what Russian air or air defense assets in western Ukraine? The ones in Belarus
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Nov 15, 2022 20:08
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TheRat posted:This is just not going to happen. Just a no missile zone. If NATO says it's unacceptable for Russia to fire missiles close to its borders and it will engage any missiles flying close by, what's Russia going to do? Ignore them, have a missile fly close and have it shot down by... someone? Can they even tell what shot down a missile so far over enemy territory? Ukraine already shoots down plenty of missiles on their own, they wouldn't even be able to try to call their bluff with any certainty. It's not like any of this poo poo is trying to target specific strategic targets, they'd just aim for other civilian areas.
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Nov 15, 2022 20:09
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Anne Frank Funk posted:Do you think Articles 5 should be triggered because of this? It's Poland. They are itching to kill a bunch of Russians for obvious reasons.
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Nov 15, 2022 20:09
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FishBulbia posted:The ones in Belarus Has belarus fired anti-air missiles at Ukrainian jets in Ukrainian airspace up to this point? Armed forces of Belarus don't appear to be in any meaningful way participants in the war in Ukraine
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Nov 15, 2022 20:09
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Head of Russia Today responding with appropriate gravity to the reports of a misfired missile striking a NATO country https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1592594908535468034?s=20&t=2wsFRB42QSfTc5zR7jSRTA
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Nov 15, 2022 20:10
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KitConstantine posted:As for why that town - there's a Ukrainian water treatment plant essentially due East of the city in Poland that was hit - just north of Sokal in Lviv Oblast. And Russia was demonstrably targeting infrastructure today Russia wants to deprive all of Ukraine of all basic necessities, I don't think it's even so much a "terror" operation anymore, I think Russia is trying to degrade Ukraine's fighting ability by destroying all of its infrastructure. I agree that a no-fly-zone is still an extreme reaction, but I'm trying to think what practical steps would actually stop Russia from further endangering the people of Poland. And seeing what lengths Russia has been willing to go to in Ukraine, and all the crimes they're happy to commit, I don't think there's any diplomatic method to ensure that safety. At least not one anyone with 2 brain cells would trust to work at all. Poland is having an emergency session we probably have to wait a few hours to hear anything from them.
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Nov 15, 2022 20:13
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Herstory Begins Now posted:Has belarus fired anti-air missiles at Ukrainian jets in Ukrainian airspace up to this point? Armed forces of Belarus don't appear to be in any meaningful way participants in the war in Ukraine Russian forces are in Belarus. https://twitter.com/financialjuice/status/1592596754985373700 https://twitter.com/Faytuks/status/1592596793740918785
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Nov 15, 2022 20:14
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Zloty is down by 1% in the markets - oil up by 2%-3%. Capitalism doesn't think this will lead to direct NATO involvement.
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Nov 15, 2022 20:17
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Orthanc6 posted:Russia wants to deprive all of Ukraine of all basic necessities, I don't think it's even so much a "terror" operation anymore, I think Russia is trying to degrade Ukraine's fighting ability by destroying all of its infrastructure. pratically speaking: Poland starts engaging every Russian missile that goes within range of it's air defenses
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Nov 15, 2022 20:20
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Pentagon briefing now, they don’t confirm anything yet. Poland has officially not confirmed it, Polish security council in session. Social media running with photos and news from the explosion location. Some journalists - watching TVN24 - stupefied that no official confirmation out despite everyone knowing by now what happened.
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Nov 15, 2022 20:23
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Chalks posted:Just a no missile zone. If NATO says it's unacceptable for Russia to fire missiles close to its borders and it will engage any missiles flying close by, what's Russia going to do? Ignore them, have a missile fly close and have it shot down by... someone? Can they even tell what shot down a missile so far over enemy territory? Ukraine already shoots down plenty of missiles on their own, they wouldn't even be able to try to call their bluff with any certainty. I feel like there's some practical issues with shooting into someone else's airspace. It would require an integration of Ukrainian and NATO missile defenses lest NATO fires missiles into Ukrainian airspace which then get shot down by Ukrainian missiles, or worse, NATO missile brings down a Ukrainian MiG. It might be more effective to just give more missile defense assets to Ukraine.
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Nov 15, 2022 20:24
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Salisbury is proof that gently caress all will happen. Same for that Dutch plane the Russians shot down
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Nov 15, 2022 20:25
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Mokotow posted:Pentagon briefing now, they don’t confirm anything yet. Any response requires being certain that it's a Russian missile specifically and not a wayward air defense missile
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Nov 15, 2022 20:25
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Mokotow posted:Pentagon briefing now, they don’t confirm anything yet. Ah, so officially stop paying attention for a few hours rather than receive twitter inflicted breaking news brain damage (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Nov 15, 2022 20:27
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TheRat posted:This is just not going to happen. I've been pleasantly surprised by the extent of NATO support for Ukraine so far, and I hope that to continue despite the reflexive naysaying in some quarters. I hope the US at least uses this as an excuse to give the Ukrainians some ATACMs.
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Nov 15, 2022 20:27
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Extending some kind of air defense buffer into Ukraine such that any Russian munitions (and perhaps implicitly air assets, in the hopes that that'll discourage them from even trying) within a wide radius of Poland will be shot down seems like mmmmaybe the balanced approach? NATO allies can provide resources to supply this air defense so it's not just Poland sticking their necks out (and possibly not just Poland with their fingers on the trigger if it comes to deciding whether to fire at a Russian bomber skirting this buffer zone). I guess what they're looking for is something that satisfies the need to respond without making the escalation step beyond that inevitable. Some kind of buffer zone puts the ball in Russia's court to scale back their bombing campaign, which they can probably afford to do unless they're just that determined to double down on provocation.
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Nov 15, 2022 20:27
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Edgar Allen Ho posted:How many people hate Germany today? One way or another Russia will "normalize." People don't hate Germany anymore because Germany has spent the past seventy five years excising that which made them hated. Its political system, its society, its culture are all firmly against the crimes and atrocities Germany committed in World War II, against the ideology that enabled those atrocities, and against anyone who would defend or support them. Anybody who's somebody in Germany rejects and condemns those atrocities, and the system has safeguards in it to stop anything similar from happening. For that reason, people are confident when Germans show contrition and regret that they mean it, and that a return to the dark times is unlikely. Russia, meanwhile, not only variably denies, defends, or outright praises the atrocities it committed in that same conflict, it continues to do the same with the atrocities it committed in Eastern Europe for the following forty-five years, and to glorify the ideology that enabled those crimes, the people who perpetrated them, and their consequences. Finally, it continues to commit atrocities to this day, including right now. Whenever it professes contrition or regret, it rings hollow, and for a number of years the Russian decision makers have moved away from that notion entirely, anyway. Therefore, there is no reason for confidence that they will stop doing what got them hated in the first place. The "normalisation" of Germany did not happen in a vacuum or by decree or by the way of people moving on and forgetting, it happened because the Germans worked to make it happen. Any such normalisation for Russia would require that Russia actually goes through a similar path.
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