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Duda's official statement is that there's no reason to suspect a deliberate attack, there's no evidence for the missile to be launched by Russia and it's likely it was a tragic accident with an Ukrainian missile. Morawiecki followed up with the same.The investigation is ongoing, for whar it's worth. They also said they don't currently see the need to invoke article 4 but they're not completely abandoning the option. Not a peep on article 5. Biden apparently also said it was an Ukrainian missile but that's only from unofficial sources so far. I feel like this should put to bed the notion that Poland will immediately escalate and cause a nuclear war  But I'm definitely still relieved, it was a scary night and morning.
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Nov 16, 2022 12:16
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I feel like Zelensky got ahead of himself with his statement last night, was way too bullish given that we now know it was a Ukrainian mistake and it's going to add more fuel to the fire for Russian conspiracy theories.
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Nov 16, 2022 12:29
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a pipe smoking dog posted:I feel like Zelensky got ahead of himself with his statement last night, was way too bullish given that we now know it was a Ukrainian mistake and it's going to add more fuel to the fire for Russian conspiracy theories. It would’ve been too bullish in the majority of plausible scenarios where it would’ve turned out to be a Russian cruise missile, to be honest. cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 12:51 on Nov 16, 2022 |
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Nov 16, 2022 12:41
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cinci zoo sniper posted:It would’ve been to bullish in the majority of plausible scenarios where it would’ve turned out to be a Russian cruise missile, to be honest. What are the chances of an AA missile hitting a tractor in the middle of a field? Tractors were significant also in memes of the early stages of the war. 
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Nov 16, 2022 12:48
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cinci zoo sniper posted:It would’ve been to bullish in the majority of plausible scenarios where it would’ve turned out to be a Russian cruise missile, to be honest. Oh totally, but we expect him to respond aggressively to Russian actions given the context. Now it just makes him look like a bit of a hypocrite or a dumbass.
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Nov 16, 2022 12:52
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a pipe smoking dog posted:I feel like Zelensky got ahead of himself with his statement last night, was way too bullish given that we now know it was a Ukrainian mistake and it's going to add more fuel to the fire for Russian conspiracy theories. Yeah, probably the first obviously bad moves I've seen him do. Not that it's going to do much, but Russia propaganda team is probably very happy right now.
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Nov 16, 2022 12:57
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If Russia did not launch a war of conquest against Ukraine, then no Polish farmers would be dead because of Russian actions against Ukraine. Nobody but the Kremlin and their loyal supporters are going to be nitpicking the words and reaction of Zelensky because of this.
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Nov 16, 2022 12:59
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Given the absolutely hosed up space that Ukraine has been expected to operate in, in terms of decorum, the military/civilian situation, and what's politically palatable to western powers, Zelenskyy and the broader Ukrainian administration have been absolute bloody saints You get a hundred times as many fuckups that are a hundred times as bad from western leaders that are supposed to be leading the world in political and diplomatic maneuvering, and here's Ukraine on the 'periphery' struggling to fight a defensive war against a genocidal regime and showcasing what is imo a masterclass in international relations. Yeah there have been fuckups but on the whole if someone was trying to make a tv show about this whole thing it'd be dismissed as masturbatory West Wing nonsense
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Nov 16, 2022 13:06
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Nenonen posted:What are the chances of an AA missile hitting a tractor in the middle of a field? Tractors were significant also in memes of the early stages of the war. Maybe it was a paid tractor? Dick Ripple posted:If Russia did not launch a war of conquest against Ukraine, then no Polish farmers would be dead because of Russian actions against Ukraine. Nobody but the Kremlin and their loyal supporters are going to be nitpicking the words and reaction of Zelensky because of this. Stolteberg also agrees.
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Nov 16, 2022 13:12
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mmkay posted:Maybe it was a paid tractor? A crisis tractor?  (Shamelessly stolen from the GBS thread)
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Nov 16, 2022 13:24
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Jasper Tin Neck posted:A crisis tractor? A false  flag even!
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Nov 16, 2022 13:42
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a pipe smoking dog posted:I feel like Zelensky got ahead of himself with his statement last night, was way too bullish given that we now know it was a Ukrainian mistake and it's going to add more fuel to the fire for Russian conspiracy theories. https://twitter.com/DmytroKuleba/status/1592632386751434752 good look Ukraine
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Nov 16, 2022 13:44
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Dick Ripple posted:If Russia did not launch a war of conquest against Ukraine, then no Polish farmers would be dead because of Russian actions against Ukraine. Nobody but the Kremlin and their loyal supporters are going to be nitpicking the words and reaction of Zelensky because of this. This is completely the wrong way to handle things, especially when U.S. intelligence backs up that it was from Ukrainian air defense and Poland agrees with it Willo567 fucked around with this message at 13:50 on Nov 16, 2022 |
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Nov 16, 2022 13:44
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Dick Ripple posted:If Russia did not launch a war of conquest against Ukraine, then no Polish farmers would be dead because of Russian actions against Ukraine. Nobody but the Kremlin and their loyal supporters are going to be nitpicking the words and reaction of Zelensky because of this. Whom you are responding to with this? Is someone here blaming the farmers’ deaths on Ukraine already?
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Nov 16, 2022 13:49
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My take on it is that it was most definitely a russian missile, but ole biden and putin had a call on their freshly reinstalled red phone, and decided they were both very stupid and should pretend like it didn't happen. Next time this happens won't be so friendly.
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Nov 16, 2022 14:11
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go play outside Skyler posted:My take on it is that it was most definitely a russian missile, but ole biden and putin had a call on their freshly reinstalled red phone, and decided they were both very stupid and should pretend like it didn't happen. It was probably Russian-made, as they said, the S-300 is Russian made, it was made in the RSFSR
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Nov 16, 2022 14:12
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This the unfortunate blowback effect from the prudent use of info campaigns, sometimes it works too well and popular consciousness exceeds policy use
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Nov 16, 2022 14:14
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All this is very unfortunate and I don't understand why Ukraine needs to be so combatative about accepting it was their missile. I mean, I understand that they would like NATO to provide their anti-air defence/extend coverage to Western Ukraine, but it would be easier to do from the position of acknowledging what happened and asking for help in order to avoid this happening again. Nobody's blaming Ukraine anyway.
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Nov 16, 2022 14:34
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Nenonen posted:What are the chances of an AA missile hitting a tractor in the middle of a field? There's a non-zero possibility that the rocket 'found' something with a heat signature on ground and hit it. I'd put this at a very low probability but it's still there. It predicates on the missile being the right variant and in the right phase of flight. Think old-Macdonald having the only tractor slightly running hot kilometers away from anything else. We might never know how exactly it hit that particular tractor. Tracking a missile this close to the ground is not possible. Aka they might have tracking info on it while it still had some altitude, but once it went down below 500m they don't know what it did. To me the more interesting question is when and where the intercept of the russian missile it was after was supposed to happen? Did the russian missile fly towards the border, the S300 followed it, the russian missile detonated somewhere else on its own or self-destroy and then the S300 became lost?
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Nov 16, 2022 14:35
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Heat signature isnt relevant for this missile.
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Nov 16, 2022 14:37
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Brain65 posted:There's a non-zero possibility that the rocket 'found' something with a heat signature on ground and hit it. I'd put this at a very low probability but it's still there. It predicates on the missile being the right variant and in the right phase of flight. Think old-Macdonald having the only tractor slightly running hot kilometers away from anything else. S-300s do not track heat or have any kind of IR sensor. There have been now thousands of Russian missiles fired and hundreds to thousands of interceptors fired. This is not the first object to land outside Ukraine, just the first one to happen to hit a populated area.
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Nov 16, 2022 14:40
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mlmp08 posted:S-300s do not track heat or have any kind of IR sensor. Second if you count what likely was an AD target practice drone, the Tu-141 that crashed in Zagreb back in March.
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Nov 16, 2022 14:45
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Paladinus posted:All this is very unfortunate and I don't understand why Ukraine needs to be so combatative about accepting it was their missile. I mean, I understand that they would like NATO to provide their anti-air defence/extend coverage to Western Ukraine, but it would be easier to do from the position of acknowledging what happened and asking for help in order to avoid this happening again. Nobody's blaming Ukraine anyway. Note the timestamps.
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Nov 16, 2022 14:49
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Second if you count what likely was an AD target practice drone, the Tu-141 that crashed in Zagreb back in March. There was debris or full missile landing in Moldova also recently. https://twitter.com/nicupopescu/status/1587036599300366336
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Nov 16, 2022 14:57
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OddObserver posted:Note the timestamps. They're still doubling down https://twitter.com/OleksiyDanilov/status/1592854121887203330
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Nov 16, 2022 14:58
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mlmp08 posted:S-300s do not track heat or have any kind of IR sensor. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S-300_missile_system#Sea-based_S-300FM_(SA-N-20) - the naval version is believed to have infrared terminal seeker. Ukraine doesn't have that one though; point being if they can identify the exact type they might figure out who fired it. The fact that NATO as a whole seems to want to de-escalate and Ukraine wants to save face for yelling for 12 hours 'the Russians did it' doesn't help identify who fired the missile.
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Nov 16, 2022 15:02
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oops
Scratch Monkey fucked around with this message at 15:35 on Nov 16, 2022 |
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Nov 16, 2022 15:05
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https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1592847819320487936
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Nov 16, 2022 15:07
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Brain65 posted:. The fact that NATO as a whole seems to want to de-escalate and Ukraine wants to save face for yelling for 12 hours 'the Russians did it' doesn't help identify who fired the missile. Do you suspect the Russian Navy fired a missile into Poland and NATO governments are lying to cover it up?
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Nov 16, 2022 15:08
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Was this supposed to go in the OSHA thread or something?
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Nov 16, 2022 15:10
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FishBulbia posted:They're still doubling down
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Nov 16, 2022 15:24
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Dwesa posted:That doesn't sound like doubling down, it's call for joint investigation and sharing of information, which is more prudent than what Duleba tweeted earlier. Maybe they really have reason to believe it was Russian missile. An investigation to prove the "russian tracks" on the incident, it's exactly the muddying the waters the Russians would do.
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Nov 16, 2022 15:30
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And I mentioned topaz just once… This is the guy who runs mouth so much that he single-handedly lost his party a re-election a month and a half ago, and is literally paid to shitpost while the coalition talks go on. Down from 4th largest party at 12,04% vote to below the parliamentary threshold.
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Nov 16, 2022 15:34
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Tomn posted:Was this supposed to go in the OSHA thread or something? yes. sorry
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Nov 16, 2022 15:35
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mlmp08 posted:Do you suspect the Russian Navy fired a missile into Poland and NATO governments are lying to cover it up? Not at all; personally I think Ukraine fired some S300 to intercept something and it landed way off because their rockets are poo poo from 40 years ago or they lost it over the horizon and couldn't destroy it. And they would have been better off to not tweet right away and instead wait 12 hours before mouthing off any conclusions.
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Nov 16, 2022 15:46
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Brain65 posted:Not at all; personally I think Ukraine fired some S300 to intercept something Same.
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Nov 16, 2022 15:48
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FishBulbia posted:An investigation to prove the "russian tracks" on the incident, it's exactly the muddying the waters the Russians would do. Dwesa fucked around with this message at 16:37 on Nov 16, 2022 |
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Nov 16, 2022 16:32
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The NYT Magazine has an extremely long, well-researched but also kind of boring, article about the Ukrainian train network, in case that is up anyone's alley: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/15/magazine/ukraine-trains.html Nothing particularly new but it's a good personal interest piece. Way too long to copy and paste here; if you don't have a subscription then just stop the loading after the article loads but before the paywall loads.
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Nov 16, 2022 17:09
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Saladman posted:The NYT Magazine has an extremely long, well-researched but also kind of boring, article about the Ukrainian train network, in case that is up anyone's alley: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/15/magazine/ukraine-trains.html As someone else mentioned (maybe here) you can also just Google the title of the article and clicking the Google result doesn't seem to stop you from looking at unlimited articles.
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Nov 16, 2022 17:16
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You're Goddamn right we love trains. Here's a non-paywalled version: https://archive.ph/A4ght
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