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Charlz Guybon posted:It's self-explanatory. During these kinds of tensions, the Pentagon needs to be able to contact their peers in Moscow. Try to avoid posting entirely obvious, in a banal way, things, especially when they’re served with tweets that are mainly about domestic political bickering in the US. cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 10:43 on Nov 17, 2022 |
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Nov 17, 2022 10:33
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An information warfare is more or less taking place with regards to the explosions in Poland. This is very much on the conspiracy side, but interesting enough that I decided to post it here. Very soon after the incident people started speculating that a russian operator entered wrong coordinates into the targeting system of the rocket which struck Poland. This was presented based on marginally similar coordinates of Kyiv, Lviv and Przewodow i.e.: Generic Kyiv coordinates: 50°27′00″N 30°31′24″E Generic Lviv coordinates: 49°50′33″N 24°01′56″E supposed Przewodow coordinates: 50°27′00″N 24°01′56″E that last one is plainly wrong, ~9km from Przewodow proper and this was very quickly pointed out by proponents of the official explanation. However, all of the above is based on assumptions that russia would try to target the rocket on city coordinates taken from wikipedia. But someone dug a bit deeper and tried to match coordinates of strategic targets in Ukraine to real Przewodow coordinates and there it's a bit more weird: Kyiv Sviatoshyn Airfield 50°28'19.2"N 30°22'48.0"E https://www.google.com/maps/place/50%C2%B028%2719.2%22N+30%C2%B022%2748.0%22E Lviv State Aircraft Repair Plant 49°49'01.2"N 23°56'20.4"E https://www.google.com/maps/place/49%C2%B049%2701.2%22N+23%C2%B056%2720.4%22E Przewodow 50°28'19.2"N 23°56'20.4"E https://www.google.com/maps/place/50%C2%B028%2719.2%22N+23%C2%B056%2720.4%22E Which is basically to say, that we will never get rid of the theory that NATO tries to hide the truth of Przewodow.
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Nov 17, 2022 10:38
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Try to avoid posting entirely self-explanatory things, especially when they’re served with tweets that are mainly about domestic political bickering in the US. Mark Milley's conference was broadcast in full on the second biggest 24h news channel here in Poland, so I wouldn't dismiss it as internal US politics. I found the whole thing very warmongery and scary tbh, I don't think the tv station people were ready for a "yeah for sure it was a russian provocation" but that's what they got.
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Nov 17, 2022 10:42
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Anne Frank Funk posted:Which is basically to say, that we will never get rid of the theory that NATO tries to hide the truth of Przewodow. What is there to hide? It was either directly caused (targeting error or not) by Russia, or indirectly due to Ukraine trying to shoot down incoming russian ordnance. In all honesty, unless Russia admits it was targeting Polish tractors no one is going to be talking about this in a few weeks time.
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Nov 17, 2022 10:45
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Kikas posted:Mark Milley's conference was broadcast in full on the second biggest 24h news channel here in Poland, so I wouldn't dismiss it as internal US politics. I found the whole thing very warmongery and scary tbh, I don't think the tv station people were ready for a "yeah for sure it was a russian provocation" but that's what they got. The tweet is phrased in an unnecessarily peculiar way, which becomes much clearer once you click through and read their first reply to it. Milley’s poo poo is perfectly relevant to the thread, but if you bring it over in that packaging, I’m going to metaphorically kill you.
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Nov 17, 2022 10:49
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https://twitter.com/Euan_MacDonald/status/1593158987800641536 The total interception rate according to the AFU is about 75% which seems pretty good. Wonder how long can Russia keep at this with the more or less accurate missiles before they run out
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Nov 17, 2022 11:18
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Somaen posted:https://twitter.com/Euan_MacDonald/status/1593158987800641536 The interception rate is also very tied to AD saturation. Today they launched 9 and the intercept rate was 100% https://twitter.com/markito0171/status/1593185298946887680 It's not just a case of being able to keep it up, Russia needs to launch 80+ missiles at once just to land any hits at all
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Nov 17, 2022 11:43
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Anne Frank Funk posted:Kyiv Sviatoshyn Airfield 50°28'19.2"N 30°22'48.0"E https://www.google.com/maps/place/50%C2%B028%2719.2%22N+30%C2%B022%2748.0%22E I imagine that there are military / dual-use locations at a LOT of positions if you can look at an ENTIRE longitude and then an ENTIRE latitude spectrum in a massive and highly militarized country like Ukraine, and then see if there's anything on either of those two lines that you can select as a reasonable military target OR as a "reasonable" (i.e. dual-use) civilian target. Also do Russian missiles tend to use GPS (well, GLONASS) coordinates for missile targeting? Or if that's unknown, what does the US do? Somaen posted:https://twitter.com/Euan_MacDonald/status/1593158987800641536 That video of the anti-missile hit is super impressive. I've seen those Iron Dome and Patriot intercepts, but something about this seemed more impressive to me, even if I imagine the Patriot is much more difficult to actually implement. Maybe the low altitude and high speed of the incoming missile?
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Nov 17, 2022 11:52
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It's crazy to watch these guys just filming a cruise missile explode directly above them!  For example, Kalibr has a weight of one to two tons and the S-300 is similar weight. So when two of those explode in the sky then you end up with thousands of kilograms of metal debris raining down in high velocities. That's a lot of kinetic energy. It's even speculated that the Polish tractor was hit this way because there are no scorch marks on it, just a big impact crater in soft ground.
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Nov 17, 2022 12:02
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Well, due to inertia the debris is flying mostly in the same direction the rocket was goingChalks posted:The interception rate is also very tied to AD saturation. Today they launched 9 and the intercept rate was 100% Yeah, but Kiev is very well defended by AA, I think if they focused on power plants and other infrastructure in the regions around the damage could be worse. In any case the high shootdown rate is very 
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Nov 17, 2022 12:06
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Somaen posted:Well, due to inertia the debris is flying mostly in the same direction the rocket was going Eh, I wouldn't bet my health on 'mostly'. First, there's two rockets flying, and the intercepting one may have a completely different vector and has more velocity. Secondly, the warheads exploding will send huge as well as smaller chunks flying in random directions. That said, if I happened to be outside when that happened and my spider sense started tinkling, I don't know where I could hide from a VW Beetle sized wreck falling from the clouds. I suppose the best protection would be to lie down flat, preferably in a ditch or other inundation, so that if something big falls near then I won't get hit by impact debris. And cover my head with hands, even a bolt falling from an altitude will make an ouchie
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Nov 17, 2022 12:26
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JunkDeluxe posted:Perun actually just had a video covering this topic a few days ago. edit: I think I'm being a bit too dense and TLDR here for a YouTuber's thesis. Nevermind Oysters Autobio fucked around with this message at 13:19 on Nov 17, 2022 |
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Nov 17, 2022 13:11
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Somaen posted:https://twitter.com/Euan_MacDonald/status/1593158987800641536 Quite possible they will run out of missiles later than Ukraine runs out of power plants. Lots of places outside the capital got hit today, and while Western AA is good it's hardly enough to cover the country, and is delivered at rates of an artisanal hand-crafted products. In totally different direction: https://mobile.twitter.com/AKamyshin/status/1593015717963923456 https://mobile.twitter.com/AKamyshin/status/1593015752281710592 OddObserver fucked around with this message at 13:25 on Nov 17, 2022 |
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Nov 17, 2022 13:14
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OddObserver posted:Western AA is good it's hardly enough to cover the country, and is delivered at rates of an artisanal hand-crafted products. Biggest downside I've heard about them in general vs S300's is their range is shorter so you need more batteries of IRIS-T to cover the same area 1 battery of S300 would cover.
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Nov 17, 2022 14:50
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Dutch court finds two Russians, one Ukrainian separatist guilty over downing of flight MH17 https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/17/europe/mh17-trial-verdict-intl/index.html
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Nov 17, 2022 15:39
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Charlz Guybon posted:Dutch court finds two Russians, one Ukrainian separatist guilty over downing of flight MH17 Girkin comes up in this thread a lot. Does that mean he'll be placed on an international watch list now after this conviction?
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Nov 17, 2022 16:59
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I imagine that Ukraine would extradite him if captured, as they are part of the Joint Investigation Team.
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Nov 17, 2022 17:24
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LochNessMonster posted:Girkin comes up in this thread a lot. Does that mean he'll be placed on an international watch list now after this conviction? It's not like he's ever going to leave Russia, nor will Russia extradite him.
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Nov 17, 2022 17:43
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https://archive.ph/2022.11.17-162721/https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/john-mearsheimer-on-putins-ambitions-after-nine-months-of-war Isaac Chotiner has talked to Mearsheimer again. It's savage. "Annexing parts of Ukraine is not imperialistic, because he's gonna leave a rump state, see?"
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Nov 17, 2022 17:52
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PC LOAD LETTER posted:This true for stuff like Patriot but IRIS-T is supposed to use cheaper and, already mass produced, missiles which is why its a big deal that Ukraine is deploying them now. They’re different kinds of missiles that do different jobs using different guidance methods. It’s not a S300 vs IRIS-T question; a proper air defense network has both. NASMS is also a useful midrange missile system based on an off the shelf missile that will be very helpful to Ukraine.
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Nov 17, 2022 18:06
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KYOON GRIFFEY JR posted:They’re different kinds of missiles that do different jobs using different guidance methods. It’s not a S300 vs IRIS-T question; a proper air defense network has both. You're right but they're running out of S300's and getting more is going to be problematic at best. I somehow doubt they'll get their hands on a S400 system either. The solution they seem to be going towards right now is using bunches of IRIS-T's, NASAMS, Gepards, and even guys with MANPADs on a adhoc basis for AD purposes. None are as long range as S300 but they do seem to work.
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Nov 17, 2022 18:14
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Hannibal Rex posted:https://archive.ph/2022.11.17-162721/https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/john-mearsheimer-on-putins-ambitions-after-nine-months-of-war
So, not on what happened but what he said before the war? Yes. It may be that thirty years from now we unlock the archives and discover that there is massive evidence that he was an imperialist at heart. That is possible, but we do not have any evidence of that sort at this point in time. We have a huge amount of evidence that it was nato expansion and the more general policy of making Ukraine a western bulwark on Russia’s border that motivated him to attack on February 24th. what a dunce
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Nov 17, 2022 18:17
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Nenonen posted:It's not like he's ever going to leave Russia, nor will Russia extradite him. Wasn't he called up or is that him LARPing or Russia putting on a show?
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Nov 17, 2022 18:24
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Young Freud posted:Wasn't he called up or is that him LARPing or Russia putting on a show? Pretty sure Russian authorities won't let him near the front Also I wouldn't be surprised he went into "hiding" because of the impending court verdict. Or at least got a soft social media ban Charlotte Hornets fucked around with this message at 18:51 on Nov 17, 2022 |
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Nov 17, 2022 18:46
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Rinkles posted:
Given that he is interested in integrating into Russia the parts of Ukraine that he’s conquered successfully, does that suggest that if the war had gone better for him and he’d been able to conquer more of Ukraine that he would’ve been interested in integrating those parts too? It’s possible. It’s hard to say. I think he probably would’ve gone to Odesa and incorporated all of Ukraine that runs along the Black Sea up to Odesa into Russia. Whether he would’ve gone beyond that, it’s hard to say. Lol so he doesn't want to conquer all of Ukraine, but he does want to conquer literally all of Ukraine that he thinks he can conquer. e: holy poo poo Mearschiemer gets bodied in this interview; quote:You gave a speech about all this and said, “One might argue that Putin was lying about his motives, that he was attempting to disguise his imperial ambitions. As it turns out, I have written a book about lying in international politics—‘Why Leaders Lie: The Truth about Lying in International Politics’—and it is clear to me that Putin was not lying.” What is it about your study of leaders and lying that makes you think Putin was not lying? Alchenar fucked around with this message at 19:08 on Nov 17, 2022 |
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Nov 17, 2022 19:04
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Somaen posted:https://twitter.com/Euan_MacDonald/status/1593158987800641536 I can't even loving imagine just standing around outside chilling with my bros and seeing missiles flying literally over my head. Absolutely terrifying.
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Nov 17, 2022 19:09
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LochNessMonster posted:Girkin comes up in this thread a lot. Does that mean he'll be placed on an international watch list now after this conviction? He’s probably on some watchlists from Crimea raids in 2014 already. Charlz Guybon posted:Dutch court finds two Russians, one Ukrainian separatist guilty over downing of flight MH17 I wonder why they used a “highly secured courtroom” for this. In any case, glad to see the ink dried on this.
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Nov 17, 2022 19:38
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https://mobile.twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1593285209558028295 I seriously can't believe this is real, especially after the shitfest that was the partial mobilization. Does anyone have a link about these intercepted calls that mention this?
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Nov 17, 2022 19:44
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cinci zoo sniper posted:I wonder why they used a “highly secured courtroom” for this. Because Russia is notorious for using assassins and other shady types on foreign soil? I mean they caught two Russian spies trying to eavesdrop on the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons in The Hague like last year. Plus they already had the facility, it's just normally used for organized crime trials and such.
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Nov 17, 2022 19:54
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Willo567 posted:https://mobile.twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1593285209558028295 Just wait until January, it’s a few kilograms of Olivier salad and some mandarin orange bags away. More seriously, the evidence basis for this right now is two counts of “some guy”. SixFigureSandwich posted:Because Russia is notorious for using assassins and other shady types on foreign soil? I mean they caught two Russian spies trying to eavesdrop on the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons in The Hague like last year. Fair point, especially with the eavesdropping reminder.
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Nov 17, 2022 20:05
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Willo567 posted:https://mobile.twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1593285209558028295 The current "partial" mobilization wasn't all that partial anyway. So they could just ramp it up again a little.
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Nov 17, 2022 20:09
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If they're losing about 1,000 mobiks a day, and they mobilized 300,000, of which only about 70% got into combat units, January sounds about right*. *These numbers are pulled from my rear end.
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Nov 17, 2022 20:15
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Nenonen posted:It's not like he's ever going to leave Russia, nor will Russia extradite him. The latest rumours have him fighting in Ukraine.
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Nov 17, 2022 20:48
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Tuna-Fish posted:The latest rumours have him fighting in Ukraine. The only photo evidence from that, I think, was a photo in Russia, so I would not be so sure. Likewise, I wouldn’t bet on the government’s willingness on allowing him to go there, since they exiled him from LDNR in the first place.
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Nov 17, 2022 20:53
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SixFigureSandwich posted:Because Russia is notorious for using assassins and other shady types on foreign soil? I mean they caught two Russian spies trying to eavesdrop on the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons in The Hague like last year. That was 2018. I know, time is a gently caress.
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Nov 17, 2022 21:18
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Hannibal Rex posted:https://archive.ph/2022.11.17-162721/https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/john-mearsheimer-on-putins-ambitions-after-nine-months-of-war You are underselling what a brutal slaughter that interview is. It is incredibly revealing and Mearsheimer's attempts to deflect from his visit to Hungary are so suspicious Chotiner pounces immediately. You don't dangle that sort of thing in front of a journalist and not expect them to start prying.
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Nov 17, 2022 21:23
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I think if I were a politician and Chotiner asked for an interview, I’d respond on the record with “I must respectfully decline, and I understand that your request is a sign from God to change my ways”.
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Nov 17, 2022 21:45
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Antigravitas posted:You are underselling what a brutal slaughter that interview is. It is incredibly revealing and Mearsheimer's attempts to deflect from his visit to Hungary are so suspicious Chotiner pounces immediately. You don't dangle that sort of thing in front of a journalist and not expect them to start prying. I have only heard of this guy from this thread, is he influential? He comes across as an absolute clown in this interview. Calling himself a "realist" while showing such utter credulity is really something. But then American foreign policy "realists" have never exactly lived up to the name.
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Nov 17, 2022 21:51
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If I were mean (and I am), I'd call Mearsheimer the Chomsky of International Relations. Yes, he's influential in that field, and now he's embarassing himself in increasingly cringe inducing ways.
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Nov 17, 2022 21:57
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Neorxenawang posted:I have only heard of this guy from this thread, is he influential? He comes across as an absolute clown in this interview. Calling himself a "realist" while showing such utter credulity is really something. But then American foreign policy "realists" have never exactly lived up to the name. His work is probably assigned in every intro to IR class in the US for undergraduates.
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