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the guns: 
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Nov 19, 2022 17:15
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Paladinus posted:Again, it's not conclusive, but it doesn't look like other Russian soldiers were killed in panic. Once someone pulls a weapon (gun, grenade, knife, etc) the whole group can (legally, as far as I can tell anyways, not a lawyer) be considered as attacking soldiers and treated accordingly even while begging for surrender. Why? Because they could be faking it too and have a grenade or gun in their pocket or under their jacket. e: Paladinus posted:Without knowing what exactly happened between the two videos, it's impossible to say one way or the other, hence why a proper investigation is needed. All they'll need to do is show the vid of the Russian guy coming out shooting, shrug, and that'll probably be the end of it from a legal perspective. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST) PC LOAD LETTER fucked around with this message at 17:31 on Nov 19, 2022 |
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Nov 19, 2022 17:24
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Wouldn't this be either Bofors 40mm or Oerlikon 20 or 30mm autocannons? Just the thought of trying to shoot at drones with a howitzer is 
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Nov 19, 2022 17:36
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Nenonen posted:Wouldn't this be either Bofors 40mm or Oerlikon 20 or 30mm autocannons? Just the thought of trying to shoot at drones with a howitzer is I read it initially that way too, but he’s using it as a prior example of them acquiring howitzers on the open market as aid, not them acquiring the M109 as anti aircraft guns.
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Nov 19, 2022 17:41
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Ah yes, that makes more sense.
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Nov 19, 2022 17:44
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Iran will help Russia build drones for Ukraine war, Western officials say Moscow and Tehran are said to agree on a plan to assemble Iranian-designed weapons on Russian soil quote:After weeks of savaging Ukrainian cities with Iranian-made drones, Moscow has quietly reached an agreement with Tehran to begin manufacturing hundreds of unmanned weaponized aircraft on Russian soil, according to new intelligence seen by U.S. and other Western security agencies.
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Nov 19, 2022 18:04
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Nenonen posted:Wouldn't this be either Bofors 40mm or Oerlikon 20 or 30mm autocannons? Just the thought of trying to shoot at drones with a howitzer is I'm not sure what other SPAAGs are really out there that they could acquire. … are there still VADS out there?
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Nov 19, 2022 18:13
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May some check if I am off base here? There's been recent reporting or comments from various NATO, US and European leaders about a call for peace talks or some kind of negotiation. Initially, this kind of surprised me because it's Ukraine's war and they've literally said that it's up to them in previous press conferences. They've since backtracked, and one might be thinking that The West is getting tired of supporting Ukraine. I have a different theory and that is now that Ukraine has seized the initiative, they're equipped with state-of-art western equipment, not just a few HIMARS but potentially dozens along with whatever else they're going to absolutely destroy Russian forces. It's going not just be some kind of victory but a massive total defeat and thousands more Russian soldiers will die. Probably even more. Much more. It will be absolutely brutal. Most of these guys don't deserve such a fate and have no idea what is coming. It's essentially a way for the West to save face and prevent the conflict from potentially spilling out of Ukraine. Gucci Loafers fucked around with this message at 18:33 on Nov 19, 2022 |
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Nov 19, 2022 18:25
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Antigravitas posted:I'm not sure what other SPAAGs are really out there that they could acquire. The article only says anti-aircraft guns, while that could mean AA vehicles it doesn't sound super likely that you would get 125 flakwagens for under 50 million pounds (which Ł figure also includes all other sorts of items like radars). If we're talking about guns and systems in the market then that opens possibilities, but if the Iranian missiles are mainly used against civilian point targets then mobility isn't an issue and you can get ZU-23/2 towed AA guns a lot cheaper than self-propelled ZSU-23/4's.
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Nov 19, 2022 18:30
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Ukraine is not equipped with state of the art western weapons, it's equipped with a few here and there, but mostly with whatever it had (a lot of which is getting attritioned with no replacement) , old Soviet stuff Eastern European countries had laying around, and old Western stuff that was laying around with certain categories of Western equipment never offered even for sale no matter how obsolete.
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Nov 19, 2022 18:34
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Nenonen posted:Wouldn't this be either Bofors 40mm or Oerlikon 20 or 30mm autocannons? Just the thought of trying to shoot at drones with a howitzer is for curiosity's sake I did look at Saab Bofor's site and they have a bunch of modern naval guns. Maybe a mobile version of that?
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Nov 19, 2022 18:39
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OddObserver posted:Ukraine is not equipped with state of the art western weapons, it's equipped with a few here and there, but mostly with whatever it had (a lot of which is getting attritioned with no replacement) , old Soviet stuff Eastern European countries had laying around, and old Western stuff that was laying around with certain categories of Western equipment never offered even for sale no matter how obsolete. Correct me if I am wrong but aren't things like M777, Caeser, Pzh2000, HIMARS, etc. with guided munitions having an enormous impact?
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Nov 19, 2022 18:42
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Yes, but they have them in homeopathic quantities. The bulk of their stuff is still Soviet era tube artillery / howitzers and tanks.
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Nov 19, 2022 18:47
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Crosby B. Alfred posted:Correct me if I am wrong but aren't things like M777, Caeser, Pzh2000, HIMARS, etc. with guided munitions having an enormous impact? Yes, but Russia still has artillery advantage, just no longer overwhelming one. Ukraine is by no means in a position to easily push the Russians out (it may happen, but at a huge cost which would have been much lower with actual state of the art weaponry) and AA/air degradation may turn into a catastrophe at some point. (Also PzH seems to spend much of its time in the shop).
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Nov 19, 2022 18:49
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What do you mean AA degradation?
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Nov 19, 2022 18:52
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Crosby B. Alfred posted:May some check if I am off base here? The Russians no longer have the critical shortage of manpower that enabled the Kharkiv offensive to make so much headway, nor the bottle-necked supply lines that made Kherson unsustainable. Western ammo stockpiles aren't infinite, and production can't be ramped up widely enough to keep up with demand. Surovikin has shown competent leadership in the Kherson retreat too. I still expect further Ukrainian advances, and we'll see how the first batch of mobiks deals with Winter temperatures with their poor training and equipment, but it mostly looks like the low-hanging fruit have been plucked and it will be harder for Ukraine going forward, unless there's a mass rout of mobiks whenever they come under pressure.
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Nov 19, 2022 18:59
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Crosby B. Alfred posted:What do you mean AA degradation? Anti-air systems get destroyed by Russians in the field periodically; with no direct replacements for many of them, and it's unclear what ammo supply is like. There are some replacements for things protecting cities, but at very low volume and they can't both cover cities from terror bombing and things in the field. A lot of these simply cannot be replaced because the Western doctrine is to use fancy planes for this, but they are not willing to provide planes.
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Nov 19, 2022 19:01
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orcane posted:Yes, but they have them in homeopathic quantities. The bulk of their stuff is still Soviet era tube artillery / howitzers and tanks. Using off the shelf drones to drop grenades has been extremely easy and effective, but I've never seen hard numbers on casualties compared to traditional weapons.
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Nov 19, 2022 19:02
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SaTaMaS posted:Using off the shelf drones to drop grenades has been extremely easy and effective, but I've never seen hard numbers on casualties compared to traditional weapons. You don't see videos of all the areas where drones can't fly because of Russian EW countermeasures.
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Nov 19, 2022 19:04
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Antigravitas posted:I'm not sure what other SPAAGs are really out there that they could acquire. There are hundreds, if not thousands of twin 23mm ZSU AA guns all over the world from Soviet times. If they ask around in the Commonwealth Nigeria has 350, South Africa has three dozen mounted akready on trucks, Mozambique has 150 and plenty from other countries: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ZU-23-2
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Nov 19, 2022 19:10
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Discendo Vox posted:Iran will help Russia build drones for Ukraine war, Western officials say Feels like this is a mistake for Iran. The U.S. and Israel are always looking for a reason to bomb Iran and they pretty much gave them one. Edit: I misread this. I had thought the drones would be built in Iran and not Russia. Will be interesting to see if there's still an industrial sector that can assemble them in mass. Also, going to see a tighter sanctions net over Iran since there's lots of Western-made components in them that they seem to not be able to replicate. Young Freud fucked around with this message at 19:27 on Nov 19, 2022 |
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Nov 19, 2022 19:19
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Young Freud posted:Feels like this is a mistake for Iran. The U.S. and Israel are always looking for a reason to bomb Iran and they pretty much gave them one. To what end?
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Nov 19, 2022 19:21
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CeeJee posted:There are hundreds, if not thousands of twin 23mm ZSU AA guns all over the world from Soviet times. If they ask around in the Commonwealth Nigeria has 350, South Africa has three dozen mounted akready on trucks, Mozambique has 150 and plenty from other countries: I honestly just dismissed those. But yeah, that would make sense, I guess.
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Nov 19, 2022 19:37
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Antigravitas posted:I'm not sure what other SPAAGs are really out there that they could acquire. OTO melara / Leonardo has been trying to sell the Draco variant of the centauro and failed to find purchasers for a good part of two decades.
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Nov 19, 2022 20:08
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Hannibal Rex posted:The Russians no longer have the critical shortage of manpower that enabled the Kharkiv offensive to make so much headway, nor the bottle-necked supply lines that made Kherson unsustainable. Western ammo stockpiles aren't infinite, and production can't be ramped up widely enough to keep up with demand. Surovikin has shown competent leadership in the Kherson retreat too. I still expect further Ukrainian advances, and we'll see how the first batch of mobiks deals with Winter temperatures with their poor training and equipment, but it mostly looks like the low-hanging fruit have been plucked and it will be harder for Ukraine going forward, unless there's a mass rout of mobiks whenever they come under pressure. Isn't Russia also facing the same equipment and supply shortages? It seems like to me if my earlier hypothesis is incorrect, it sounds like it's going to a long bloody stalemate, but I don't see Russia joining the world economy any time soon either.
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Nov 19, 2022 20:19
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Hannibal Rex posted:The Russians no longer have the critical shortage of manpower that enabled the Kharkiv offensive to make so much headway, nor the bottle-necked supply lines that made Kherson unsustainable. Western ammo stockpiles aren't infinite, and production can't be ramped up widely enough to keep up with demand. Surovikin has shown competent leadership in the Kherson retreat too. I still expect further Ukrainian advances, and we'll see how the first batch of mobiks deals with Winter temperatures with their poor training and equipment, but it mostly looks like the low-hanging fruit have been plucked and it will be harder for Ukraine going forward, unless there's a mass rout of mobiks whenever they come under pressure. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I'm pretty sure Crimea has the same supply issue Kherson has, since the Kersh bridge was heavily damaged. The only supply routes to Crimea are either severely damaged (Kersh), or goes through Ukrainian artillery range (route through Novooleksiivka). It doesn't seem like they can sit back with infinite supplies, not that Russia has ever had infinite supplies. And good, Surovikin knows how to retreat. But can he fight?
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Nov 19, 2022 20:23
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Crosby B. Alfred posted:Isn't Russia also facing the same equipment and supply shortages? They have good suppliers in Iran and North Korea. And coincidentally the former is providing them with weapons capabilities Ukraine does not have[1] and the West will absolutely not provide (long range missiles), to the point they forbid use of HIMARS against targets in Russia. [1] After being pressured to give them up alongside the nukes.
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Nov 19, 2022 20:27
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Young Freud posted:Feels like this is a mistake for Iran. The U.S. and Israel are always looking for a reason to bomb Iran and they pretty much gave them one. This is in addition to the current practice of Iran building them the drones.
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Nov 19, 2022 20:30
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Am I incorrect in my impression that Ukraine is likely to win the war? From what I've been reading, it doesn't like Putin has enough troops, leverage, supplies, etc. Granted, I suppose it could just turn into a endless meat grinder or some weird South-North Korea DMZ situation.
Gucci Loafers fucked around with this message at 21:13 on Nov 19, 2022 |
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Nov 19, 2022 20:57
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Crosby B. Alfred posted:. Granted, I suppose it could just turn into a endless meat grinder or some weird South-North Korea DMZ situation. These honestly seem like the most likely outcomes at this point, at least in the short to medium term.
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Nov 19, 2022 21:02
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I imagine that Russia is going to sit on Ukraine's border for the coming year, just flinging missiles at infrastructure and harassing towns.
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Nov 19, 2022 21:04
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I thought at the beginning of this current round of fighting that it would last roughly three years before Ukraine had them pushed out of their territory, i'm beginning to wonder if Russia can even hold it together for that long. I have no actual combat/military knowledge, computer games don't count. 
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Nov 19, 2022 21:20
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Crosby B. Alfred posted:Am I incorrect in my impression that Ukraine is likely to win the war? From what I've been reading, it doesn't like Putin has enough troops, leverage, supplies, etc. Granted, I suppose it could just turn into a endless meat grinder or some weird South-North Korea DMZ situation. This is a current events thread. Kchama posted:Correct me if I'm wrong, but I'm pretty sure Crimea has the same supply issue Kherson has, since the Kersh bridge was heavily damaged. The only supply routes to Crimea are either severely damaged (Kersh), or goes through Ukrainian artillery range (route through Novooleksiivka). It doesn't seem like they can sit back with infinite supplies, not that Russia has ever had infinite supplies. Kerch bridge was damaged, but not incapacitated, and the peninsula is receiving cargo by sea in Sevastopol’ and on the Kerch strait ferry line. Kherson has been in a much worse condition, comparatively.
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Nov 19, 2022 21:42
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cinci zoo sniper posted:This is a current events thread. My understanding is that Sevastopol and the ferry represent a much lower output of supplies even combined with the one working rail line on the Kersh bridge.
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Nov 19, 2022 21:53
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Kchama posted:My understanding is that Sevastopol and the ferry represent a much lower output of supplies even combined with the one working rail line on the Kersh bridge. It is reduced, I'm not arguing that it's not. It's just in a much healthier state than then Kherson battle group was, relying on just a handful of pontoon bridge ferries.
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Nov 19, 2022 22:05
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cinci zoo sniper posted:This is a current events thread. I'm sorry but are you telling me discussion of potential outcomes or events of war isn't permitted in this thread? That's confusing because things like this and other similar subjects have been discussed in the past but I can drop it you'd prefer.
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Nov 19, 2022 22:07
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Crosby B. Alfred posted:I'm sorry but are you telling me discussion of potential outcomes isn't permitted in this thread? That's confusing because things like this and other similar subjects have been discussed in the past but I can drop it you'd prefer. It's not explicitly prohibited, and I tolerate it just fine when there's a reason to have a go at it, e.g., when the mainstream conversation is focusing on some diplomatic happenings. To randomly bring it up, however, is explicitly off-topic, and I would like to discourage that, and have intervened in the past accordingly.
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Nov 19, 2022 22:14
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There's also a huge difference between collating and/or summarizing pertinent analysis of the strategical, economic and/or geo-political outlook of the participants in the war - or even just linking a new analysis video/blog/article/post by some smart person with expert knowledge, and opionated goons sharing their predictions on who is going to win this war and why/when. Well, to be fair sometimes goon analysis and predictions are interesting. But asking "who is going to win?" is just inviting people to give an opinion without context to back it up. It's better to ask "what sources should I seek out to gain a better understanding of the potential outlook for the war"?. Otherwise it just ends up with cheerleading, low-intensity trolling and toeing the not-so-easy line between analysis based on facts and prediction based on hypotheticals. And following that up with some actual references: Anders Puck Nielsen, Perun, JominiW - those are some I would suggest. Others might suggest Shashank Joshi, who I found strongly Russia-biased early on, but trying to fight my own biases, I do my best to still listen/read what he says. But the OP actually has a pretty good collection of material / sources, so that's also a good starting point. If reassurances that everything will be alright is what one is seeking, I don't think this is the right thread (and I'm not sure any such exists on SA in regards to this war). PederP fucked around with this message at 22:24 on Nov 19, 2022 |
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Nov 19, 2022 22:21
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cinci zoo sniper posted:It is reduced, I'm not arguing that it's not. It's just in a much healthier state than then Kherson battle group was, relying on just a handful of pontoon bridge ferries. We might just be quibbling over minor numbers then, sorry.
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Nov 19, 2022 23:35
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I didn't mean to ask a crass "who's going to win??!?!" question, just trying to check myself and trying make sense of everything I've read over the past few days. I didn't see an on-going conservation, but I apologize if interrupted anyone.
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Nov 19, 2022 23:38
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