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Crosby B. Alfred posted:I didn't mean to ask a crass "who's going to win??!?!" question, just trying to check myself and trying make sense of everything I've read over the past few days. Its difficult to interpret Ukraine is likely to win the war? otherwise, though you did unfortunately follow a pattern quite similar to some of the anxiety posting the thread has seen in the past. Revisiting your post: Crosby B. Alfred posted:From what I've been reading, it doesn't like Putin has enough troops, leverage, supplies, etc. None of this is specific enough to make meaningful and falsifiable statements about. This very close to my line of thinking. Crosby B. Alfred posted:I didn't see an on-going conservation, but I apologize if interrupted anyone. cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 00:11 on Nov 20, 2022 |
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Nov 20, 2022 00:06
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To be entirely clear, I feel that in no circumstance is there any justification at all for frivolous posting even about a war in a comedy forum nor was that my intent at all. I'm having trouble understand why anyone would think that because if you read the whole conversation, not just a specific part which was a response to an on-going conversation, I did preface my original post as well that I wanted folks here to check my hypothesis because I could be wrong. I provided additional context as why I asking as well because I do indeed follow many the resources that have already been shared. I hope that helps, I'm not exactly sure but in the future, I'll try to be clearer and more concise. Gucci Loafers fucked around with this message at 00:57 on Nov 20, 2022 |
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Nov 20, 2022 00:53
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Crosby B. Alfred posted:To be entirely clear, I feel that in no circumstance is there any justification at all for frivolous posting even about a war in a comedy forum nor was that my intent at all. There's been a lot of clickbait articles of late due to Mark Milley's comments, but nothing has actually changed.
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Nov 20, 2022 01:21
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One of, if not the last, history lecture video from Timothy Snyder's class dropped but with an associate professor. The lecture covers a brief history from 2000-2014 with heavy emphasis on Maiden. I'd highly recommend since the lecture doesn't require watching the other previous lectures.
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Nov 20, 2022 05:37
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RockWhisperer posted:One of, if not the last, history lecture video from Timothy Snyder's class dropped but with an associate professor. The lecture covers a brief history from 2000-2014 with heavy emphasis on Maiden. I'd highly recommend since the lecture doesn't require watching the other previous lectures. That's a good video, really powerful accounts. I do wonder how people can buy the idea that Euromaidan was a western backed coup. It really did seem to me that if Russia's response hadn't been so heavy handed from the start this ball really wouldn't have started rolling at all. Edit to correct spelling of Euromaidan WarpedLichen fucked around with this message at 07:45 on Nov 20, 2022 |
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Nov 20, 2022 06:47
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Isn't it Euromaidan? Nothing to do with a maiden at all.
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Nov 20, 2022 07:29
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Speaking of videos, I finally got around to watching Perun's latest video on "how lies destroy armies", and it is a very good and entertaining hour. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fz59GWeTIik
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Nov 20, 2022 07:30
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Fun little puff piece from Canada about the Senator armored car they're shipping to Ukraine: https://globalnews.ca/news/9280476/canada-armoured-vehicles-ukraine/ It's a neat little reminder of how the western MIC is managing to make a profit on the war outside of the direct transfer of equipment.
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Nov 20, 2022 07:44
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WarpedLichen posted:I do wonder how people can buy the idea that Euromaiden was a western backed coup. It really did seem to me that if Russia's response hadn't been so heavy handed from the start this ball really wouldn't have started rolling at all. It was "backed" in the sense that the US supported it verbally and some ambassadors brought food to the protestors. "Western backed" morphed from meaning something the security services orchestrated start to finish against the wishes of the populace to literally any popular uprising against an authoritarian government that has a goal to install a democratic government that might be friendly to developed countries and of course denies any agency to the people of the country because only a western backed structure could organize a revolt, the noble yet simple people of ____ would never rise up against the wise rulership of ____
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Nov 20, 2022 07:44
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WarpedLichen posted:I do wonder how people can buy the idea that Euromaidan was a western backed coup. It really did seem to me that if Russia's response hadn't been so heavy handed from the start this ball really wouldn't have started rolling at all.
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Nov 20, 2022 08:52
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Somaen posted:of course denies any agency to the people of the country because only a western backed structure could organize a revolt, the noble yet simple people of ____ would never rise up against the wise rulership of ____ Yeah, the underlying logic is that Putin's russia just fundamentally doesn't understand democratic / popular government. People don't have agency of their own; everyone must be, has to be, controlled by someone pulling strings.
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Nov 20, 2022 09:01
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WarpedLichen posted:Fun little puff piece from Canada about the Senator armored car they're shipping to Ukraine: Hiring a bunch of Ukrainian refugees so they can help make armored cars to defend their homeland is honestly a super cool move. Also, I have zero idea how a modern automotive factory works, but this one seems rather hands on, so increasing production would definitely need a large influx of workers. Also glad to hear the AFV's that are being made in London, ON are getting sent to Ukraine. I used to live in London and I was a bit ticked to learn we were exporting a bunch of those to Saudi Arabia.
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Nov 20, 2022 09:10
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Orthanc6 posted:Also, I have zero idea how a modern automotive factory works, but this one seems rather hands on, so increasing production would definitely need a large influx of workers. Probably a combination of too small of production runs to invest in expensive automation. And the lack of off the shelf automation for moving and welding such thick body panels.
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Nov 20, 2022 10:16
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The pre-Maidan elections where candidates Moscow did not like would mysteriously come into contact with nerve agents were of course completely legitimate.
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Nov 20, 2022 10:20
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WarpedLichen posted:
It's a similar sort of unfamiliarity with a foreign system that leads many westerners to naïvely wonder why don't the oligarchs just remove Putin or Xi, given that they're obviously bad for business? The difference is, in the west, the rich control the state. In Russia and China, the state controls the rich. A similar dynamic exists with regards to popular movements. In the west, the people control the state. In Russia and China, the state controls the people. The Kremlin sees no difference between Ukraine and Russia, so if they aren't doing the Kremlin's bidding, they must be controlled by someone else.
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Nov 20, 2022 12:13
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The international Maidan-blamers are generally political opponents of the establishment who opportunistically latch on to an event that was already blamed by Russia and friends. There is not necessarily any deeper reason than this. Political tribalism and "the enemy of my enemy must be right about my enemy" is reason enough to build narratives. Of course there is an element of exceptionalism and some information war prodding going on, but it is surprisingly easy to gain acceptance for something purely based on tribalism. I know people who are highly anti-establishment from a left, right and apolitical point of view all. When COVID started and governments were still dismissing it as a threat, many of those people I knew were latching on to collusion theories about the government wanted to hide the real threat. However, almost immediately when governments pivoted and started enacting policies to contain/suppress COVID, these people pivoted and chose a completely different, and incompatible, narrative. That wasn't based on any kind of analysis or actual knowledge of facts. It was pure tribalism. It's the same with Maidan. If the liberal democracies of the West pivoted towards demanding Ukrainian concessions and stopped all aid - a lot of the people currently lambasting western puppeteering and Euromaidan would immediately switch to a narrative where the corrupt liberal democracies had sold out and betrayed them the people of Ukraine. Any talk of NATO and western intelligence being the root cause of this would vanish (except for a few fringe cases). One cannot, and should not, try to understand what analysis has brought anti-establishment groups to adopt one or another narrative. Because it is not based on analysis. It is far simpler. And to be fair the opposite holds true - pro-establishment groups will tend to justify, excuse and accept whatever governments do. There are certainly individuals capable of rational, independent analysis as the basis of opinion and world view. But collectively that is not what moves human groups. So trying to understand the degree to which Euromaidan had western involvement/influence is a good and worthy topic. But trying to understand why others arrive at a specific conclusion is not a good idea. Especially because you're not going to win any arguments over such people by disputing their analysis. And at the end of the day it shouldn't matter too much to anyone but historians how legitimate the uprising was and who was involved and to what degree. Because the conclusion doesn't justify a war of aggression, war crimes and wanton targeting of civilians. Rejecting revanchism should be the real core of the issue, not whether there is a justified and true grudge to act against.
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Nov 20, 2022 12:43
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Jasper Tin Neck posted:It's a similar sort of unfamiliarity with a foreign system that leads many westerners to naïvely wonder why don't the oligarchs just remove Putin or Xi, given that they're obviously bad for business? It's a problem called "mirror imaging" in strategic studies. We (we as humans, not us ITT specifically) tend to imagine our opponents as thinking and behaving in mostly the same way that we do despite this being very obviously not true. An example being the various commentators who said there was no way Russia would attack Ukraine because they didn't have the resources to win such a conflict.
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Nov 20, 2022 12:46
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Vincent Van Goatse posted:It's a problem called "mirror imaging" in strategic studies. We (we as humans, not us ITT specifically) tend to imagine our opponents as thinking and behaving in mostly the same way that we do despite this being very obviously not true. An example being the various commentators who said there was no way Russia would attack Ukraine because they didn't have the resources to win such a conflict. I think there's a caveat-for-fairness to be thrown in here, which is that 99% of the Russian commetariat also assumed there was no way Putin would start a war because they didn't have the resources to win such a conflict. Interesting instance of double mirroring in that within the autocratic system they weren't able to see the indicators that Russian experts outside the system who were saying 'things have changed, Putin is absolutely serious about this' and so were assuming Putin would act like they assumed a foreign leader would act.
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Nov 20, 2022 13:19
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RockWhisperer posted:One of, if not the last, history lecture video from Timothy Snyder's class dropped but with an associate professor. The lecture covers a brief history from 2000-2014 with heavy emphasis on Maiden. I'd highly recommend since the lecture doesn't require watching the other previous lectures. It's not bad, but as the lecturer herself says, she is very biased. Which is fine, acknowledging biases helps with puzzling the truth together from multiple accounts, but on some topics she fails to provide basic context where it's needed and just says things like 'no idea why people voted for Yanukovich'. Yes, he was a terrible kleptocrat on a short Russian leash, but understanding what message he tried to convey to get people on his side is very relevant to understanding reasons behind Euromaidan and its results. And it's not like we don't have polls on what policies people were concerned with back then. It's something you can analyse, don't just say 'we may never know'. With why Yushchenko lost all his support, she at least provides several versions, but with Yanukovich, it's incomprehensible Manafort magic somehow. Overstating the role of Manafort in Yanukovich's success is also a bit strange, considering that clearly Yanukovich was already popular enough before Manafort's involvement. Glossing over the involvement of far right groups in Euromaidan, no matter how overblown it is in Russian propaganda, is also questionable. You don't have to go into a lot of detail, but choosing to describe it as 'people across the entire political spectrum were united by one goal' is far from nuanced analysis. Paladinus fucked around with this message at 23:59 on Nov 20, 2022 |
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Nov 20, 2022 13:42
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More quality content from Perun. This time about recent events in Kherson. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fxR1jmZTLew
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Nov 20, 2022 14:24
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Anybody wanna buy my families condo in dt moscow? I have a feeling I'm never going to set foot in it again.
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Nov 20, 2022 16:49
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Preoptopus posted:Anybody wanna buy my families condo in dt moscow? I have a feeling I'm never going to set foot in it again. Let's talk dachas. E: I'm sorry, this whole situation is a pizdets and I didn't want to make light of yours.
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Nov 20, 2022 16:49
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spankmeister posted:Let's talk dachas. Lol ur good. We sold ours a few years back after my grandma passed as there was no one left to take care of it. I begged my parents not to. But they were like so are u going to fly to Russia and spend ur summer fixing up the place and digging potatoes? To which I agreed that no I probably wasn't. Shame tho it was a double plot on a tributary to the Volga. Oh well.
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Nov 20, 2022 17:30
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Preoptopus posted:Anybody wanna buy my families condo in dt moscow? I have a feeling I'm never going to set foot in it again. I'm genuinely curious what the market value before and after looks like
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Nov 20, 2022 17:39
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Alan Smithee posted:I'm genuinely curious what the market value before and after looks like  RUB/sqm for Moscow (red-green, 20th-80th percentile; blue is the general mean; months are Oct-Jan-Apr-Jul-Oct). The value before and after depends entirely on the value you place in the rouble, and what you feel like is a useful timeline for owning a place in Moscow for you. Edit: Here's the same plot in USD, since I'm pretty certain that there's a sizeable class of people who'll only sell their stuff in USD if they can help it. 
cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 18:02 on Nov 20, 2022 |
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Nov 20, 2022 17:57
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cinci zoo sniper posted:
drat.
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Nov 20, 2022 18:17
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A bit of a history lesson: https://twitter.com/VlStarodubtsev/status/1594366765894549505 (At this point UNR wasn't calling for independence, just autonomy; proclamation of independence would come with the Fourth Universal).
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Nov 20, 2022 23:47
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Charliegrs posted:https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1591830216669732864?s=20&t=lf4-f31LpHJB4O8fu9qq-g this is from a few pages back, but: We're sending Ukraine our surplus to fight Russia with while retaining a ready stockpile of munitions for ourselves. It's not that the munitions don't exist, it's that we're keeping enough on-hand if we need it for our own purposes. If it was a straight-up fight between NATO and Russia instead of a proxy war routed through Ukraine, there would not be supply issues of this type.
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Nov 21, 2022 01:24
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Alchenar posted:I think there's a caveat-for-fairness to be thrown in here, which is that 99% of the Russian commetariat also assumed there was no way Putin would start a war because they didn't have the resources to win such a conflict. Interesting instance of double mirroring in that within the autocratic system they weren't able to see the indicators that Russian experts outside the system who were saying 'things have changed, Putin is absolutely serious about this' and so were assuming Putin would act like they assumed a foreign leader would act. I mean, I think a lot of us here who felt something was going to happen could point to the fact that such a large mobilization of equipment from their depots wasn't something you could do on a whim; either it would extract a concession with the threat of force or force would be used.
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Nov 21, 2022 03:37
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Can someone link me to some of the best twitters that post fresh vids of Russians getting exploded? I get that the explicit stuff cant be posted here, but can you point me to the twitter pages that post that? Thanks in advance  (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST) (USER WAS BANNED FOR THIS POST)
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Nov 21, 2022 03:44
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LibCrusher posted:Can someone link me to some of the best twitters that post fresh vids of Russians getting exploded? I get that the explicit stuff can’t be posted here, but can you point me to the twitter pages that post that? Thanks in advance The movie saving private Ryan
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Nov 21, 2022 03:46
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Or Da Five Bloods
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Nov 21, 2022 04:08
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Charliegrs posted:https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1591830216669732864?s=20&t=lf4-f31LpHJB4O8fu9qq-g It was a fairly open secret that both NATO and the Warsaw Pact would have run out of stockpiled supplies shortly after a full scale conflict began (as in, a few weeks max). It's a large part of why Soviet planning depended on reaching the Rhine in a week; they were convinced after the initial supplies ran low the USSR would be at a significant disadvantage vs. the West in making more war material, so it was essential to win the war before that happened. For their part NATO tried to maintain pre-positioned supply dumps in Germany (called POMCUS, Prepositioning Of Materiel Configured in Unit Sets) to avoid having them shipped over from the US while the naval war was still being fought. The plan was that six US divisions of reinforcements could fly over without material and gear up when they arrive; this required a LOT of logistical support. This was at the height of the Cold War in the 1980s, the 1990s saw dramatic drawdowns in military expenditures in Europe (less so in the US). What's actually more mindblowing now is that Russia is blowing through those identical weapon stocks intended to support WW3 being fought in 1985 and are reduced to throwing 50 year old tanks at the front and begging North Korea for artillery reloads. Lum_ fucked around with this message at 05:36 on Nov 21, 2022 |
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Nov 21, 2022 05:24
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Lum_ posted:It was a fairly open secret that both NATO and the Warsaw Pact would have run out of stockpiled supplies shortly after a full scale conflict began (as in, a few weeks max). It's a large part of why Soviet planning depended on reaching the Rhine in a week; they were convinced after the initial supplies ran low the USSR would be at a significant disadvantage vs. the West in making more war material, so it was essential to win the war before that happened. For their part NATO tried to maintain pre-positioned supply dumps in Germany (called POMCUS, Prepositioning Of Materiel Configured in Unit Sets) to avoid having them shipped over from the US while the naval war was still being fought. The plan was that six US divisions of reinforcements could fly over without material and gear up when they arrive; this required a LOT of logistical support. So what happened to these German ammo dumps?
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Nov 21, 2022 05:55
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Lum_ posted:It was a fairly open secret that both NATO and the Warsaw Pact would have run out of stockpiled supplies shortly after a full scale conflict began (as in, a few weeks max). It's a large part of why Soviet planning depended on reaching the Rhine in a week; they were convinced after the initial supplies ran low the USSR would be at a significant disadvantage vs. the West in making more war material, so it was essential to win the war before that happened. For their part NATO tried to maintain pre-positioned supply dumps in Germany (called POMCUS, Prepositioning Of Materiel Configured in Unit Sets) to avoid having them shipped over from the US while the naval war was still being fought. The plan was that six US divisions of reinforcements could fly over without material and gear up when they arrive; this required a LOT of logistical support. Pretty much everyone expected the conflict to be relatively short but extremely bloody. For example, the Air Force expected the entire A-10 fleet to be wiped out within two weeks.
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Nov 21, 2022 06:17
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Charlotte Hornets posted:So what happened to these German ammo dumps? They were mostly dismantled when the Cold War ended, the US Army still maintains enough to equip a brigade's worth of troops. Also, all this planning, especially by the 1980s, was completely wrong in multiple ways. Both the Russians and NATO planned to use nuclear weapons as soon as possible which would have almost certainly quickly escalated out of control and making any conventional war planning utterly pointless. (NATO was open about this at the time; Russia denied it but after the Soviet collapse their war plans were released which spelled out they also planned on moving straight to nuclear release). Assuming both armies weren't immediately enveloped in nuclear fireballs, NATO vastly underestimated how effective anti-tank missiles would be vs. Soviet armor and most likely would have stopped any invasion quickly. The Soviets for their part were convinced NATO was going to invade them at any moment (Reagan did little to dissuade them of this) and their war plans were all desperate counter-attacks in the face of a NATO invasion. This wasn't just propaganda - the Soviets really did believe they were completely outmatched in most ways, as did NATO. Basically it's a miracle everyone managed to blunder through the decade (the height of the insanity was during Able Archer 83, a NATO exercise the Soviets were convinced was the precursor to a full scale attack) and the end of the Cold War really was a blessing for the continued survival of humanity. Lum_ fucked around with this message at 07:29 on Nov 21, 2022 |
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Nov 21, 2022 07:07
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Acebuckeye13 posted:Pretty much everyone expected the conflict to be relatively short but extremely bloody. For example, the Air Force expected the entire A-10 fleet to be wiped out within two weeks. Were individual pilots not expected to survive their first sorties?
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Nov 21, 2022 07:35
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They would all eject safely and sit out the rest of the war in a comfy Soviet POW camp.
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Nov 21, 2022 07:54
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Enjoy posted:Were individual pilots not expected to survive their first sorties? If ww3 broke out whole nations were not expected to survive the first sorties.
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Nov 21, 2022 08:09
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Alchenar posted:The pre-Maidan elections where candidates Moscow did not like would mysteriously come into contact with nerve agents were of course completely legitimate. Nah, Novichokking is new. They did Yushchenko dirty with dioxin, which is industrial waste, not a nerve agent. Acebuckeye13 posted:Pretty much everyone expected the conflict to be relatively short but extremely bloody. For example, the Air Force expected the entire A-10 fleet to be wiped out within two weeks. Two weeks was a pretty optimistic estimate of how long conventional stores could be expected to hold out in a non-nuclear/non-chemical engagement with Warsaw Pact forces. The reality would've likely been far shorter. BIG HEADLINE fucked around with this message at 08:23 on Nov 21, 2022 |
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Nov 21, 2022 08:20
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