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Lum_ posted:Russia denied it but after the Soviet collapse their war plans were released which spelled out they also planned on moving straight to nuclear release). To expand on this, Soviet planning seemed to hinge completely on the idea that if they only nuked countries that didn't have any nukes themselves, they wouldn't get nuked back. The 7 days to the Rhine plan started by nuking Vienna, the capital of neutral Austria, killing millions to hopefully scare the Austrian army to not participate in futher hostilities and to allow Soviet troops to pass. This would then be followed up with counterforce nuclear strikes on NATO West Germany, Italy and Denmark, to take out their military capability before they had time to form up. All the while the Soviets would be invading in relatively tight, concentrated groups, which would be very vulnerable to nuclear counterattack, to say nothing about their logistics. The calculus really was that so long as no bombs land on France, UK or US territory or forces, they wouldn't respond in hopes of preventing nuclear attacks on them directly. A Bomber Harris quote would go well here, because the entire reason the NATO nuclear sharing arrangement existed was just this situation. About a hour after the first nuke landed on W.Germany, Russian spearheads would start going up in nuclear fireballs, leading to  faces for all Soviet generals and probably full-scale nuclear war.
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Nov 21, 2022 12:21
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Tuna-Fish posted:To expand on this, Soviet planning seemed to hinge completely on the idea that if they only nuked countries that didn't have any nukes themselves, they wouldn't get nuked back. Don't forget most of this would be happening in Poland. The Soviets fully expected Poland would be a nuclear charnel house after they nuked West Germany. Also, the point of the plan I love the most was they fully expected resistance from nuked cities, so they'd ordered Czechoslovakian and Hungarian infantry divisions to secure them while the Russians rushed to the Rhine. It's clear looking at Ukraine they're still doing the same racist meat grinder planning, except with the lesser Russian oblasts instead of the rest of the Warsaw Pact.
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Nov 21, 2022 14:41
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Starting December 1, Russian FSB will prohibit distribution of various types of information related to war beyond classified information. https://rg.ru/documents/2022/11/18/fsb-prikaz547-site-dok.html The document approves the list of information 'which, if obtained by foreign sources, may be used against the security of the Russian Federation'. The list is very long and very vague. Some selected points: 1. Information on assessment and forecasts of military-political, strategic (operational) situation. 11. Information on the needs of troops, military formations and organisations that participate in the development, production, testing, installation, assembly, maintenance, repair and disposal of weapons, military and special equipment, including robotic complexes. 12. Information on logistical and financial support of troops, military formations and organisations. 14. Information on the observance of lawfulness and the moral and psychological climate in the armed forces, military formations and bodies. And it goes on and on. Even with the most charitable reading, I don't see how anything that is not the official Russian army brief by Konashenkov can be openly discussed full stop. Obviously, not going to apply to state propaganda, for reasons, but looks like Z-oriented military vloggers and bloggers can now be easily arrested if they try to criticise Russian military command out of turn.
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Nov 21, 2022 15:23
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I mean at this point even Prigozhin, Kadyrov, and the cast of Rossiya 1(and the above mentioned telegram generals) have broken the letter of any number of such laws. Talking poo poo about another branch must be like drinking from the same cocktail punchbowl just in case
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Nov 21, 2022 15:31
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Being able to selectively apply this sort of thing to a broad list of potential targets is very much a feature to those promulgating this.
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Nov 21, 2022 15:53
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Germany is proudly investing in Eastern Poland: https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1594679906302296064
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Nov 21, 2022 16:19
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Acebuckeye13 posted:Pretty much everyone expected the conflict to be relatively short but extremely bloody. For example, the Air Force expected the entire A-10 fleet to be wiped out within two weeks. I'll never forget one of my professor's descriptions of his mission as an air defense company commander in the 1980s. "On day 1 we would drive to the end of the air strip and setup. Any remnants that could move 2 days later would be re-designated as a light truck company."
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Nov 21, 2022 16:32
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Deteriorata posted:Germany is proudly investing in Eastern Poland: The uncharacteristically swift and enthusiastic German efforts to provide air defense and additional jets to eastern Poland do lead me think that regardless of the official explanation about the missile hitting that Polish grain facility, it is not inconceivable that it was aimed at the EU/Ukraine energy infrastructure connections (on either side of the border). We shouldn't forget that the Druzhba pipeline (into Hungary) also mysteriously stopped flowing during the same timeframe of this bombardment - and Orban was also uncharacteristically upset at the general situation. At the very least, it looks like Germany wants to help make really sure that the energy connections into the EU are not disrupted or disconnected. As I understand it Ukraine has a highly decentralized energy infrastructure, so it is not impossible that large swathes of Ukraine could be struggling with power while western Ukraine could have a surplus of energy that can only go west and not east due to disrupted power infrastructure. Norway just provided Ukraine with a big cheque for the purchase of gas. As both a producer and importer of natural gas, Ukraine can use this liquidity to keep their economy running (Naftogaz is the biggest taxpayer in Ukraine), and an active Ukrainian energy sector helps stabilize the entire European energy net. Especially as Russian strikes seem to hit distribution and power stations rather than the production facilities. Keeping the Ukrainian energy net running is a huge economic boon to the EU - even if it will periodically increase the cost of energy in the EU, I strongly suspect the effect as a whole is to reduce the energy costs and also reduce the risk of German industry having to shut down production due to shortages. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/norway-fund-ukraine-gas-procurement-with-195-mln-aid-2022-11-21/
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Nov 21, 2022 16:59
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I don't know that it was deliberately aimed at Poland but I can definitely see them aiming at something critical as close to the border as possible in that characteristic 'I'm not touching you and anyway what're you going to do about it' teenage bully Russian way. Looks like Germany at least is realizing you cannot give Russia an inch or the benefit of the doubt.
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Nov 21, 2022 17:30
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Is there a legal process in Poland that would be similar to a public inquiry in the U.K.? I’m wondering about the chances/timelines where the government of Poland could begin communicating their findings.
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Nov 21, 2022 17:37
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Tuna-Fish posted:To expand on this, Soviet planning seemed to hinge completely on the idea that if they only nuked countries that didn't have any nukes themselves, they wouldn't get nuked back. There are some videos on YouTube about this plan, e.g.: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tvMm4Uh3HPs It's mind-bogglingly crazy.
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Nov 21, 2022 18:29
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7 Days to the Rhine wasn't an official "Its this. We will do it like this. We will win WW3 this way." type thing, IIRC. Its somehow become the defacto plan for what the Soviets would have done, but there are many others. It just comes up alot because its loving dumb.
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Nov 21, 2022 18:45
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Every possible ww3 battle plan was really dumb They made a documentary about that back in 1983. It launched Matthew Brodericks career!
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Nov 21, 2022 19:05
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Dandywalken posted:7 Days to the Rhine wasn't an official "Its this. We will do it like this. We will win WW3 this way." type thing, IIRC. Its somehow become the defacto plan for what the Soviets would have done, but there are many others. It just comes up alot because its loving dumb. It was pretty official in that it was a Soviet staff plan. The Polish government declassified it as part of the post-communist "look what the Russians had in store for Poland" display (since the plan effectively assumed Poland would be a nuclear wasteland on day 1). IIRC the Czech government also declassified its parts of it. It wasn't any dumber than any other conventional war plan of the time, all of which would have been obsolete ten minutes after the first nuclear impact.
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Nov 21, 2022 19:09
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Ya any war between nuclear powers that even smells of annexation is going nuclear day one.
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Nov 21, 2022 19:52
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Pook Good Mook posted:Ya any war between nuclear powers that even smells of annexation is going nuclear day one. *taps the sign*
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Nov 21, 2022 20:03
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Is there a legal process in Poland that would be similar to a public inquiry in the U.K.? I’m wondering about the chances/timelines where the government of Poland could begin communicating their findings. There will not be a public inquiry into that matter. Not until the end of the war, change of government in Poland and few more years to be certain that there is no outlook for escalation. The information here is pretty much mixed regarding cause of explosion i.e. it could have been Ukrainian air defense missile or it was Russian missile either aimed at Ukraine or Poland. The latter hipotesis is quite dangerous for obvious reasons. Summing up no public hearing in the foreseeable future.
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Nov 21, 2022 20:07
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sznurowadlo posted:There will not be a public inquiry into that matter. Not until the end of the war, change of government in Poland and few more years to be certain that there is no outlook for escalation. Understood, thank you.
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Nov 21, 2022 20:15
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https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1594763517625868293 Kinburn operation now happening in earnest, according to Kyiv Independent.
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Nov 21, 2022 20:47
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I don't think it is too hypothetical or hyperbolic to posit that regarding the missile incident what will be the official story is not what occurred, but what the NATO countries want to have as the official story. Those two may intersect partially or entirely, but still, the actual facts are for the history books, not the current situation. I think many, including myself, forgot in the initial buzz that the involved parties - Poland, NATO, the US - do not need an alibi/excuse/strong reason to intervene. If that is what they wanted, they could do that, and with a wide variety of reasons to pick up from as the official explanation. The fact that they haven't intervened shows us they do not want to do so. A missile killing 2 Polish citizens does not change that - even if it was an entirely willful strike. So as rational actors, and from the behavior of NATO countries they actually have been quite clearly rational, they would always choose a cover-up in the event the incident had a Russian origin. So it is not surprising that the official explanation was as it was - especially as the scene of the incident is under full Polish/NATO control. And again it may be fully or partially true - I'm not speculating on what actually happened, but rather pointing out that is irrelevant what actually happened. This is also the sentiment echoed by numerous commentators and analysts. NATO has nothing to gain from being truthful if it was a Russian strike - be it errant or intentional. However, the follow-up actions of NATO are of interest - and here we see a strong move towards securing the (energy) infrastructure of Ukraine and the airspace at the Polish borders. That tells me that NATO considers the Ukrainian energy infrastructure of prime importance - there is still talk about providing Ukraine with the weapons they need to defeat Russia, reclaim lost territory, resist further offensives, etc. But there is an increased focus on infrastructure security. I would not be surprised to see this become a prime theater for the war going into winter. And incidentally the nuclear power plant at Enerhodar is again the focus of brinkmanship and accusations. I think the 'energy war' will be a key feature of this winter, as can be seen from recent news already: https://www.euronews.com/2022/11/17/how-russian-strikes-on-ukraine-heighten-moldovas-energy-crisis https://www.politico.com/news/2022/11/16/russian-attacks-on-ukriane-energy-systems-00067750 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-19/france-is-losing-its-race-to-fix-the-reactors-europe-needs https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20221121-live-iaea-team-set-to-inspect-zaporizhzhia-nuclear-plant-after-madness-of-attacks
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Nov 21, 2022 20:49
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spankmeister posted:https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1594763517625868293 Maybe they see that Russia is pulling back enough to take advantage. There's been reports that troops have been moving to the Luhansk front, probably because it's been Russia's only "success" since like, March. Also, Canadian's can now buy "Ukrainian Sovereignty Bonds": https://www.canada.ca/en/department-finance/news/2022/11/ukraine-sovereignty-bond-now-available-for-canadians-to-purchase.html
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Nov 21, 2022 21:04
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Deteriorata posted:Germany is proudly investing in Eastern Poland: The representative of the German MoD said that this deal is at the stage of "we offered and they were receptive". There is no deal yet, not even real details. So there's a very real possibility it'll end up like the PzH 2000 maintenance facility deal.
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Nov 21, 2022 21:06
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spankmeister posted:https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1594763517625868293 I wonder if this is another set of mind games/feints/smokescreens. An actual push in earnest across the Dnipro at this point seems very unwise from a strategic/logistics standpoint.
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Nov 21, 2022 21:10
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spankmeister posted:https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1594763517625868293 It still can't be particularly major in and of itself, because Ukraine can't supply the area in significant amounts. I'm still convinced the point is to annoy Russia enough that they respond - a shiny thing to get Russia's attention while they get ready to attack somewhere else. Like Orkhiv, to make a dash for Tokmak and Melitopol.
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Nov 21, 2022 21:11
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Deteriorata posted:It still can't be particularly major in and of itself, because Ukraine can't supply the area in significant amounts. https://mobile.twitter.com/Tendar/status/1594745310395383816 It looks like Ukraine is trying to keep Russia honest and prevent them from shifting too many troops from the front, at the least.
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Nov 21, 2022 21:17
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Lum_ posted:It was pretty official in that it was a Soviet staff plan. The Polish government declassified it as part of the post-communist "look what the Russians had in store for Poland" display (since the plan effectively assumed Poland would be a nuclear wasteland on day 1). IIRC the Czech government also declassified its parts of it. "Conventional war plan" being ones not intended for nuclear war? Those seem a lot less dumb than "fire nukes everywhere and hope that the other side doesn't launch any in return".
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Nov 21, 2022 21:19
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The Russian ultranationalists are crying about supposed rumors that Putin surrended the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant back to Ukraine... https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1594728632551084032?t=wIN6nAd9r63tqvAqao7aCQ&s=19 Which is taking a lot of people by surprise because Ukraine hasn't begun moving into the Zaporizhzhia region just yet. It's thought Prigozhin is inventing strawmen that Putin can't fight.
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Nov 21, 2022 21:19
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Antigravitas posted:The representative of the German MoD said that this deal is at the stage of "we offered and they were receptive". There is no deal yet, not even real details. So there's a very real possibility it'll end up like the PzH 2000 maintenance facility deal. The one that exists and is operating in Lithuania, or the one just now announced to be set up in Slovakia? (Apparently they're already keeping one PzH 2000 dismantled in the Lithuanian facility due to a lack of spare parts from Germany. That, and the contract to make 100 more for Ukraine taking multiple years to complete is just  Our MIC is the slowest on the planet, apparently.)
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Nov 21, 2022 22:08
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The one that was supposed to be in Poland, but Poland insisted on complete technology transfer of the entire thing to Polish companies, yes. That's why it's not in Poland.
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Nov 21, 2022 22:16
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Libluini posted:The one that exists and is operating in Lithuania, or the one just now announced to be set up in Slovakia? I'm sure the US MIC appreciates Germany's...due diligence...in this matter.
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Nov 21, 2022 22:20
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Antigravitas posted:The one that was supposed to be in Poland, but Poland insisted on complete technology transfer of the entire thing to Polish companies, yes. That's why it's not in Poland.  That's one of those demands that are both confusing and stupid, and get more so the more you know about how those things work. Like, you'd imagine the Polish politicians in question would now that this couldn't possibly work because even if the private companies in question are willing to go along with a technology transfer, the new Polish manufacturer would then be forced to buy the parts from German manufacturers. Or I guess, very diligently and carefully replicate large parts of our industry so they can manufacture all the parts themselves.By which I mean, surely developing your own gun, capable of being supported by our own industry, would be a lot less insane? Especially since the PzH 2000 isn't magic, pretty drat sure Poland already has all the technology it needs to make an equivalent weapon.
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Nov 21, 2022 22:54
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Developing design, engineering, and manufacturing capabilities around everything to build a modern self-propelled howitzer from scratch is prohibitively expensive. It's a lot easier to start an assembly line to build predesigned part X using known tools A, B, and C that is part of a system, than to design a system from a clean sheet, including widget X-equivalent, test widget X-equivalent as part of the larger system, and then design a way to build widget X-equivalent from scratch. edit: the way that you can tell that this is generally a better way to do it is that most countries who don't roll their own do it this way for all kinds of complex systems
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Nov 21, 2022 23:03
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Well, the Krab exists. It's also a mishmash of parts from multiple countries.
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Nov 21, 2022 23:08
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OddObserver posted:Well, the Krab exists. It's also a mishmash of parts from multiple countries. The Poles got tech transfer agreements similar to the ones they asked for on PzH2000. They got one for the AS-90 turret and I would presume the K-9 chassis as well. The gun I think they buy from the French.
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Nov 21, 2022 23:13
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Libluini posted:
PzH has been tech transferred to other European countries already(Italian units have been built by OTO under license) but Poland requesting it at gunpoint is not going to help their case.
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Nov 21, 2022 23:27
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I found this article that collates a couple of sources mentioning PZH2000 service center in Poland: https://www-konflikty-pl.translate.goog/aktualnosci/wiadomosci/remonty-pzh-2000-w-polsce/?_x_tr_sl=pl&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=pl&_x_tr_pto=wapp tl;dr lots of bad will and disorganised decisions all around.
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Nov 21, 2022 23:31
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Also how would some Polish company service PZH2000 without tech know-how transfer  It's either some weirdly translated hot-take or I don't get some point of the discussion.
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Nov 21, 2022 23:34
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cinci zoo sniper posted:
wait, after an initial dip moscow real estate is now at $1k/sqm above prewar levels? and here i thought i could follow my profs during the late 90s crash and get a nice place in the center for cheap
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Nov 21, 2022 23:45
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High inflation and uncertainty means people with extra funds search safe haven. It's less likely government will take your extra flat than your cash.
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Nov 21, 2022 23:54
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VSOKUL girl posted:wait, after an initial dip moscow real estate is now at $1k/sqm above prewar levels? There was a demand crash in April and May, when people internalised out that this all is for real, and for a while. Russian government fixed that by subsidising mortgages to as low as literally 0.1% fixed interest rate being offered on new mortgages, which sure is one simple trick how to pump real estate demand, lmao. Principal amount limit on these near-zero mortgages was 12 million RUB, or roughly 45 square metres at peak bubble median price, which is an explicitly conservative framing of the purchasing power. The decline from bubble began basically when Moscow ran out of cheap housing demand, with basically everyone going for it just buying out apartments up to like 70 sqm. For context, plan-type Soviet apartment buildings rarely even have apartments above 50 or so sqm. https://www.irn.ru/news/147831.html https://www.irn.ru/news/148390.html cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 02:04 on Nov 22, 2022 |
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Nov 22, 2022 02:01
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