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https://www.washingtonpost.com/media/2022/11/21/james-laporta-associated-press-poland-russia-missile/ One of the AP reporters who broke the story about a Russian missile hitting Poland has been fired. They only had one source for it and it clearly wasn’t accurate. Why the AP editors didn’t notice how thinly it was sourced is a mystery…
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Nov 22, 2022 08:03
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alex314 posted:Also how would some Polish company service PZH2000 without tech know-how transfer They wouldn't, because the manufacturer would service them. It wasn't a good-faith demand.
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Nov 22, 2022 08:18
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It's either some weirdly translated hot-take or I don't get some point of the discussion.
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https://mobile.twitter.com/leloveluck/status/1594939735071494144
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Nov 22, 2022 11:23
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The most surprising image from the article was, for me, this one:  Caption: "Rafael Mariano Grossi, director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, speaks with Russian President Vladimir Putin last month in St. Petersburg, Russia. PHOTO: PAVEL BEDNYAKOV/ASSOCIATED PRESS" What happened to all of Putin's long tables?
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Nov 22, 2022 11:54
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This regime is pure evil.
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Nov 22, 2022 11:55
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Please do not link twets without some commentary on the content of the link and the credibility of the poster. Thanks.
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Nov 22, 2022 12:17
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Fritz the Horse posted:Please do not link twets without some commentary on the content of the link and the credibility of the poster. Thanks. It’s a known senior WaPo reporter who covers Ukraine intermittently. For everyone’s else clarity, there’s no rules change for posting tweets to this thread.
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Nov 22, 2022 12:30
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Saladman posted:The most surprising image from the article was, for me, this one:
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Nov 22, 2022 12:44
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Pablo Bluth posted:He has more trust in random foreigners not assassinating him than any given Russian. It’s a COVID-19 protocol thing, which means that either Grossi got tested by Russian doctors, or Putin has reassessed his risk profile for it.
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Nov 22, 2022 12:47
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So based on this video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nbdxY-yCYE0 It seems Ukraine is still receiving Brimstone missiles, and possibly the improved dual-mode Brimstone 2 variant. I'd kind of assumed it a short term experiment at the start of the war when the UK was scrambling to deliver what it could. As good as weapons as they are, the UK's stockpile isn't particular huge, they're expensive per unit (the internet says $1/4m), and firing them out of a jerry-rigged civilian truck doesn't seem like a good long term integration in to the battlefield. All in all, it feels like their contribution would be lost in the noise of all the other weapons being delivered. When the dust settles, it'll be interesting to find out how they were use and how effective they were. Perhaps the lack of sightings of them is a sign the use was paused, while the work was done to make it possible to air launch them? They'd never be as tightly integrated as it is with the Eurofighter, but we've seen the Ukrainians getting HARM missiles working on their jets. Or perhaps they're not being used offensively on the front line but defensively to protect against marine threats (the original assumption of how they were going to be used, before the footage of the truck launches appeared).
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Nov 22, 2022 13:26
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Pablo Bluth posted:Or perhaps they're not being used offensively on the front line but defensively to protect against marine threats (the original assumption of how they were going to be used, before the footage of the truck launches appeared). It's possible they are being used defensively in the front, and so in the absence of threatening Russian offensives, they mostly sit idle. Brimstone 2 has enough range that it's a good solution to have in your rear to backstop your frontline, in case it gets broken through.
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Nov 22, 2022 14:22
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Anders Puck Nielsen has a livestream going right now, in case you want to watch or ask pertinent questions. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yhdg_LXE87I Hannibal Rex fucked around with this message at 19:52 on Nov 22, 2022 |
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Nov 22, 2022 19:35
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Milley's speech to the economic club of new york that caused a ton of press is online now https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aQcvfRsQiyg I can write up a summary of it later once I get a chance to listen to it
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Nov 22, 2022 21:12
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Wheeljack posted:https://www.washingtonpost.com/media/2022/11/21/james-laporta-associated-press-poland-russia-missile/ This article came out with some chat logs:     https://www.semafor.com/article/11/22/2022/ap-fired-a-reporter-after-a-dangerous-blunder-slack-messages-reveal-a-chaotic-process quote:A 10-minute miscommunication on Slack between journalists at the Associated Press resulted in an erroneous report last week that appeared momentarily to bring tensions between NATO and Russia to their highest point since the Cuban Missile Crisis.
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Nov 23, 2022 02:49
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This stinks of rear end covering by AP. The editor is the one who made the call to run it not the reporter they should’ve taken the fall, especially on a story this potentially consequential. You don’t just ponder ‘wonder if this will start a world war’ then go ‘Welp let’s run it’ I’d want at least two sources on that or to drive out and look at it my own drat self before I published something like that and I was just a college newspaper editor/stringer. Course I’m also old enough to remember the Cold War, the Day After movies, and 9/11 / Gulf War II so maybe that makes a difference. And I still have my suspicions it was absolutely a Russian missile shot down that landed on those poor farmers and the US convinced Poland to shut up about it in exchange for broader air coverage that would extend well into Ukraine. Because regardless of what some people think the US absolutely does not want NATO pulled into this.
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Nov 23, 2022 06:17
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The 24 hour new cycle strikes again.
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Nov 23, 2022 09:09
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Given those chat logs LaPorta got 100% thrown under the bus, wow. All he did was pass along a tip and even specifically said he couldn't say whether that was enough to alert on. Some bs that he gets fired and not the editor who made the call to send out a notice 10 minutes after a unverified story from a single source.
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Nov 23, 2022 15:14
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https://mobile.twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1595396857856987136 (WSJ reporter) Apparently 70 missiles, also looks like nuclear power plants were all disconnected/forced offline (they are somewhat dependent on external grid to operate).
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Nov 23, 2022 17:16
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OddObserver posted:https://mobile.twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1595396857856987136 Is there any way the west can help with this non-militarily?
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Nov 23, 2022 17:25
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Rinkles posted:Is there any way the west can help with this non-militarily? Not really. However, Russia's ability to continue doing this is not unlimited, these cruise missiles are extremely expensive and Russia's ability to easily and quickly replace them given the sanctions is very doubtful. They have probably concluded that at this point there is no reason at all to save any cruise missile which is not needed for nuclear deterrence, so they are just throwing them all at Ukraine now. Its not like their military will be in any kind of shape to do much after this within the next decade, so its stupid to save them.
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Nov 23, 2022 17:31
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EU is sending some funding to help rebuild, and the grid connection to EU likely helps a lot, but what would really help would be something that can blow up the strategic bombers and boats throwing those missiles from far (how far is the range, anyway?)
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Nov 23, 2022 17:35
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OddObserver posted:EU is sending some funding to help rebuild, and the grid connection to EU likely helps a lot, but what would really help would be something that can blow up the strategic bombers and boats throwing those missiles from far (how far is the range, anyway?) The range is 300-3000 kilometres, depending on the flavour. There’s just a few models that need to be within 500 km range. Vaguely related, EP recognised Russia a state sponsor of terrorism today - this is a symbolic move that has no practical implications on its own.
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Nov 23, 2022 17:37
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Also, EU and US could stop European and American companies doing business in Russia and paying taxes that help pay for this....
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Nov 23, 2022 17:38
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Fidelitious posted:Given those chat logs LaPorta got 100% thrown under the bus, wow. If he'd quoted someone speaking off the record, they'd probably want to quash this at the source. I'm sure he has been paid handsomely for being the fall guy for AP, and quite possibly the government source. While the US did not want NATO dragged into this - if this was a cover-up, there is some value to an early leak and walkback. If there had been no leak of the source - there would have been quite aggressive speculation and the lack of transparency would have been even more glaring (because of course the US administration knew within minutes whether this was Russian or not). If it wasn't a Russian missile, this guy could easily have been picked to put some indirect pressure on Russia via the leak, and would've been chosen according to how easy he would be to control afterwards. I know this sounds very tinfoil-hatty, but communication about potential NATO-Russia conflict triggers don't involve a lot of chaos and random elements. I am sure there are very detailed plans for how to handle public communications for numerous near-escalatory scenarios. This guy might have been on a list even before anything happened. As long as he doesn't fall out a window, I don't think there is much reason to feel sorry for this guy. He'll be given more than enough money to not be tempted into making a ruckus about this. Even if this is exactly what the US government and AP say it is. cinci zoo sniper posted:Vaguely related, EP recognised Russia a state sponsor of terrorism today - this is a symbolic move that has no practical implications on its own. I see media echoing this a lot. I don't agree. Yes, the EU Parliament does not have any power to have this declaration carry consequences. But it does involve urging the member states to “put in place the proper legal framework and consider adding Russia to such a list.” That's how a lot of EU legislation starts out. So while it doesn't carry immediate consequences, I don't think it is entirely as symbolic as many claim it to be. https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-declares-russia-a-state-sponsor-of-terrorism/ PederP fucked around with this message at 17:42 on Nov 23, 2022 |
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Nov 23, 2022 17:39
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Rigel posted:Not really. According to ISW, Russia's already run out of Iranian drones, and today's attack seems to confirm it. Ukrainian officials also claim that Russia has enough missiles left for three or four major strikes tops. However, with the precarious state Ukraine's energy infrastructure is in now, it still can be enough to cause a massive humanitarian disaster with a complete blackout.
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Nov 23, 2022 17:41
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OddObserver posted:EU is sending some funding to help rebuild, and the grid connection to EU likely helps a lot, but what would really help would be something that can blow up the strategic bombers and boats throwing those missiles from far (how far is the range, anyway?) Depending on the model the cruise missiles Russia is using have ranges anywhere from a few hundred kilometers to ~4000km. You're not going to find SAMs or air-to-air missiles with that kind of range. It's the kind of thing you'd normally stop by hitting the airbases to destroy the bombers, factories producing the missiles, storage depots, etc. with your own long range ballistic missiles or cruise missiles. Warbadger fucked around with this message at 17:43 on Nov 23, 2022 |
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Nov 23, 2022 17:41
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I don't think it would happen, and I'm over-simplifying because I am not a power grid engineer, but I'd love to see Europe and the US send 20,000 power grid engineers and a few billion dollars of equipment and just try to outbuild Russian missile strikes. "Oh, you knocked out a transformer station? Okay, we rebuilt it, and then built another one a short distance away." It would be difficult to get civilian labor to commit to moving to a war zone, but this strikes me as something we could throw money at to solve. Just sending more air defense missiles might be cheaper, but supply is very constricted, particularly if Ukraine is using SA-8 and SA-11 to deal with cruise missiles.
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Nov 23, 2022 17:44
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OddObserver posted:Also, EU and US could stop European and American companies doing business in Russia and paying taxes that help pay for this.... Thats pretty much already done, most of the last few evil holdouts like Koch Industries have surrendered and bailed out of Russia at this point. According to a list of shame maintained by Yale (last updated November 7), we are down to 25 American companies still refusing to at least pause their business in Russia, which is pretty good. https://som.yale.edu/story/2022/over-1000-companies-have-curtailed-operations-russia-some-remain
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Nov 23, 2022 17:45
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https://bulgarianmilitary.com/amp/2022/11/22/israel-to-russia-well-supply-ballistic-missiles-to-ukraine-if/ I don't know the reliability of this source and would appreciate others' opinion of it, but it sounds plausible. tl;dr If Iran supplies Russia with long-range ballistic missiles, Israel may supply Ukraine with long-range ballistic missiles. I suppose this proves the exception of two wrongs making a right? I guess Bush Jr. got 2 of 3 right. We have North Korea and Iran supplying a Russian war of aggression. It turns out that "Iraq" was the wrong answer; he missed "Russia". Russia was the third member of the Axis of Evil. (He should have known better what with his father being Reagan's Vice President and all...). At any rate, a new, long-range precision fires capability for Ukraine would definitely help them.
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Nov 23, 2022 18:04
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Rigel posted:Thats pretty much already done, most of the last few evil holdouts like Koch Industries have surrendered and bailed out of Russia at this point. According to a list of shame maintained by Yale (last updated November 7), we are down to 25 American companies still refusing to at least pause their business in Russia, which is pretty good. Many EU countries don't have the intense regulatory oversight that sanctions are not circumvented - or even ignored. In some countries, the sanctions are not enforced outside of picking random companies to check and telling them "bad - stop now!" if they're found to be in violation. Whereas the US will quite harshly investigate and punish companies that try to circumvent sanctions through third-parties, we do not have tradition for this in the EU. On the contrary, EU companies are used to sanctions being something that can mostly ignored, as long as it isn't done overtly. There are several Danish companies that still openly do business in Russia. Ecco, a large shoe company, is one of them. They're saying they won't grow their business in Russia, but that's not really the point of these sanctions. (I suspect they'd have trouble doing that anyway). https://group.ecco.com/en/news/newsroom/news/2022/statement-on-the-situation-in-ukraine https://visegradinsight.eu/eu-sanctions-russia-ukraine/
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Nov 23, 2022 18:08
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Paladinus posted:According to ISW, Russia's already run out of Iranian drones, and today's attack seems to confirm it. Ukrainian officials also claim that Russia has enough missiles left for three or four major strikes tops. However, with the precarious state Ukraine's energy infrastructure is in now, it still can be enough to cause a massive humanitarian disaster with a complete blackout. Russia has been almost out of missiles/shells/supplies since like April according to most of these sources. I'm not entirely sure I trust any of them any longer.
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Nov 23, 2022 18:23
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It's honestly bizarre to me that everyone is treating the difference between "A Russian cruise missile targeting near the border went off course and landed in a random area across the border" and "A russian cruise missile targeting near the border caused an anti-air missile to miss and land across the border" as important and meaningful. The culpability and implications are exactly the same. The only difference would be if you really thought Russia deliberately targeted rural Poland for some reason, which no rational person believes.
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Nov 23, 2022 18:34
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Ynglaur posted:https://bulgarianmilitary.com/amp/2022/11/22/israel-to-russia-well-supply-ballistic-missiles-to-ukraine-if/ I saw that report yesterday but couldn't find any corroboration. There was some news about an Israeli nations security advisor named Eyal Hulata who warned that Israel would provide precision ballistic missiles if Iran sold ballistic missiles to Russia. Even those are from sources I haven't heard of
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Nov 23, 2022 18:37
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DancingMachine posted:It's honestly bizarre to me that everyone is treating the difference between "A Russian cruise missile targeting near the border went off course and landed in a random area across the border" and "A russian cruise missile targeting near the border caused an anti-air missile to miss and land across the border" as important and meaningful. The culpability and implications are exactly the same. The only difference would be if you really thought Russia deliberately targeted rural Poland for some reason, which no rational person believes. well the AP's big thing is "absolute statements of fact as much as is possible" so it would be meaningful to their reputation anyway even if you work with 'culpability is the same' they issue big apologies over more trivial stuff anyway, so it tracks with wording that potentially clancychats
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Nov 23, 2022 19:06
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TheRat posted:Russia has been almost out of missiles/shells/supplies since like April according to most of these sources. I'm not entirely sure I trust any of them any longer. They've been wrong both ways; Russia supposedly had 7,000 T-72 and 3,000 T-80 series in reserve, but are already throwing in T-62 shitboxes in spite of taking nowhere near enough losses for that to make sense unless the "credible" prewar numbers were always a joke.
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Nov 23, 2022 19:15
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Shifty Pony posted:I saw that report yesterday but couldn't find any corroboration. I think it's also possible that national intelligence services create noise like this to test potential escalation paths and/or to force their opponents to doubt their plans. It wouldn't take a lot of work to stand up a fake news site and see if it gets picked up and amplified by the OSINT community, more reputable news outlets, etc.
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Nov 23, 2022 19:19
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TheRat posted:Russia has been almost out of missiles/shells/supplies since like April according to most of these sources. I'm not entirely sure I trust any of them any longer. And it's been right every time. Just like it's been right that Ukraine was running out of munitions and whatnot. But like most other things a shortage means you reduce expenditure accordingly. Finland ran out of stuff for the entirety of the Winter War but still kept fighting. The problem is that media is giving an impression that it'll be 'CLICK <chamber empty>' moment, and that's not how these things work. If there's one thing militaries know how to do it's working with limitations and finding one temporary solution after another. The Russian (and Soviet before it) military has pretty likely an almost systemic problem with shortages and dysfunctional logistics - the innovative spirit of Ukrainian forces to get by with what they had in the early days wasn't entirely borne out of NATO training and spunky national spirit. For all the things the Russian military can't do right - working around problems and staying in the fight despite them is something they can do. But it still makes a difference that they're running low on these things - because if they weren't, things would look a lot bleaker for Ukraine. The war will end long before the chamber clicks empty. But Russia is very much feeling the problems of not having outside backers that can do what Ukraine's backers are doing - and being cut off from global supply chains and most arms trade. So you should trust those sources - just not the media narratives built on top of them.
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Nov 23, 2022 19:26
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TheRat posted:Russia has been almost out of missiles/shells/supplies since like April according to most of these sources. I'm not entirely sure I trust any of them any longer. The fact that they had to buy what are basically small aircraft from a minor power like iran suggests they really did start to run out. The Iranian stuff also seems heavily dependent on importing US and EU components. With many of these items being passed to Western intelligence agencies as they're shot down I am skeptical that they'll continue to be able to get them in large numbers, let alone scale up. The companies and individuals fencing this components to Iran are likely to get very unpleasant visits from Uncle Sam.
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Nov 23, 2022 19:30
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Rigel posted:However, Russia's ability to continue doing this is not unlimited, these cruise missiles are extremely expensive and Russia's ability to easily and quickly replace them given the sanctions is very doubtful. They have probably concluded that at this point there is no reason at all to save any cruise missile which is not needed for nuclear deterrence, so they are just throwing them all at Ukraine now. Its not like their military will be in any kind of shape to do much after this within the next decade, so its stupid to save them. If you're listening to what the military analysts have been saying recently, such as the recent RUSI report on the air war, there's a growing concern that Ukraine will run out of S-300 and other air defense missiles, before Russia runs out of missiles and munitions to throw at their infrastructure. At which point Ukrainian troops can be bombed by the VKS, without being able to shoot back at the necessary altitude. And there doesn't seem to be an obvious Western substitute that can be delivered quickly and at the necessary scale. PederP posted:If he'd quoted someone speaking off the record, they'd probably want to quash this at the source. I'm sure he has been paid handsomely for being the fall guy for AP, and quite possibly the government source. While the US did not want NATO dragged into this - if this was a cover-up, there is some value to an early leak and walkback. Where is all this cover-up talk coming from? Have those photos of S-300 missile remains been challenged or debunked by someone?
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Nov 23, 2022 19:37
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Hannibal Rex posted:Where is all this cover-up talk coming from? Have those photos of S-300 missile remains been challenged or debunked by someone? It’s just an appealing conspiracy theory, no. That said, the S-300 remains theory stands to grow more meat either, so I don’t think that the topic has well exhausted itself, until new information surfaces. cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 19:51 on Nov 23, 2022 |
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Nov 23, 2022 19:49
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