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The remaining information is likely trajectory info from whatever tracking NATO was doing, and I don't know how shareable that sort of thing even is?
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Nov 23, 2022 19:58
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OddObserver posted:The remaining information is likely trajectory info from whatever tracking NATO was doing, and I don't know how shareable that sort of thing even is? To be honest, I think better-lit shots of the area and the debris would also be useful. Same goes for any landscape surveillance camera videos from both sides of the border.
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Nov 23, 2022 19:59
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Rigel posted:Thats pretty much already done, most of the last few evil holdouts like Koch Industries have surrendered and bailed out of Russia at this point. According to a list of shame maintained by Yale (last updated November 7), we are down to 25 American companies still refusing to at least pause their business in Russia, which is pretty good. Some interesting names there. Sorry if this breaks the page, I think it is more readable this way pre:Aimbridge | Interstate Hotels still operating in Russia Consumer Discretionary Align Technology still operating in Russia Health Care Carl's Jr. | CLK still operating in Russia Consumer Discretionary Cloudflare continue sales & services in Russia Information Technology Fleetcor business as usual Financials Forever Living Products still operating in Russia Consumer Discretionary Huntsman Corporation still operating in Russia Materials International Paper still operating in Russia Materials IQVIA still operating and actively hiring Industrials Kemin still operating in Russia; declined to commend Health Care Lifestyle Production Group (LPG) Continuing to hire Russian employees for editing Match Group continue to operate in Russia including Tinder Communication Services Patreon still providing services to Russia Financials Quicksilver online sales still running Consumer Discretionary Riot Games still operating in and selling to Russia Consumer Discretionary Sbarro Pizza still operating in Russia and allowing placing online orders Consumer Discretionary Signet Armorite operating in Russia through a subsidiary Consumer Discretionary Stryker continue sales and imports to Russia Health Care Tenneco still operating in Russia; deny comments Consumer Discretionary TGI Friday's still operating in Russia Consumer Discretionary Titan International still operating in Russia Industrials Tom Ford still operating in Russia; not disclosed publicly Consumer Discretionary Tupperware still operating and actively hiring in Russia Consumer Discretionary Valve still providing services to Russia Consumer Discretionary
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Nov 23, 2022 20:01
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If Valve cut Russia off from Steam that would be something.
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Nov 23, 2022 20:04
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Hannibal Rex posted:Where is all this cover-up talk coming from? Have those photos of S-300 missile remains been challenged or debunked by someone? Several Danish analysts have commented that if it was a Russian missile we would not be told. That doesn't mean it happened. It just means that regardless of what happened, we would get the current story. And that's really a good thing. Escalation is not something anyone wants. And this episode shows the world, including Russia, that NATO is truthful when it says it doesn't want to get involved. Peskov even praised the American response to the incident. I am not saying to suspect a cover-up - but this one of the instances where the fog of war makes it impossible to know the actual truth. Also note that the official stance is still something wishy-washy like it being likely to have been a Ukrainian anti-air missile. NATO knows what is happening in that area. There is nothing to debunk or challenge when the investigation and documentation is controlled completely by one party. The photos came out hours after the incident. I don't think there's anything sinister or crazy about being open to the possibility that the official narrative is not truthful. As I said - on the contrary it shows rationality, restraint and a strong desire to avoid escalation that this was downplayed and an effort made to move on. Especially as it gets the message across to those in Kremlin who did not believe that NATO wanted to stay out. I'll stop bringing it up as I can see how some might construe my mentions of it as something it is not intended to be. But I do look forward to a time when historians can tell us what really happened. Because this could easily have been one of those "phew - cool heads prevailed and we avoided a potential apocalypse". To put it another way, we could have been discussing if NATO was covering for Ukraine and making up a narrative about this being a Russian missile. That would have been a much more toxic and dangerous point of contention - here and in real-life. From before this invasion, there have been people in the US administration, top NATO brass and across the international community doing an insanely good job at firmly supporting Ukraine while minimizing the potential for escalation. From the rather spectacular transparency about the impending Russian invasion to the quickly adapting to an unexpectedly staunch Ukrainian defence to the frog-cook ramping up of aid - and more - this really has been a very well-managed response from the US and NATO. With more bloodthirsty, impetuous or just plain incompetent people in charge of the important institutions and governments of the west - this war could have led down much darker paths. If this was a cover-up, it's the best drat cover-up ever. PederP fucked around with this message at 20:09 on Nov 23, 2022 |
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Nov 23, 2022 20:06
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Ynglaur posted:I think it's also possible that national intelligence services create noise like this to test potential escalation paths and/or to force their opponents to doubt their plans. It wouldn't take a lot of work to stand up a fake news site and see if it gets picked up and amplified by the OSINT community, more reputable news outlets, etc. “Possible” probably isn’t strong enough. Probable, extremely likely, or certain are closer.
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Nov 23, 2022 20:08
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mawarannahr posted:Some interesting names there. Sorry if this breaks the page, I think it is more readable this way Well, Cloudflare is very not surprising, given how they have a history of helping Nazis for "freeze-peach" reasons. As for Valve, I am suddenly reminded of them having a Ukrainian-developer themed mini-sale...
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Nov 23, 2022 20:18
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Hannibal Rex posted:Where is all this cover-up talk coming from? Have those photos of S-300 missile remains been challenged or debunked by someone? It's probably because there "should" be more info about the subsequent investigation that is being kept very tightly under wraps. It doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me because response should really be the same regardless of what actually happened but people are nervous barring some truly off the wall stuff. You would think there would be more shots surfacing, an explanation of which missile the S-300 was trying to intercept and from where, etc. All stuff that NATO should already know but is keeping under wraps for "reasons."
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Nov 23, 2022 20:36
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WarpedLichen posted:It's probably because there "should" be more info about the subsequent investigation that is being kept very tightly under wraps. It doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me because response should really be the same regardless of what actually happened but people are nervous barring some truly off the wall stuff. Those reasons are most likely that they don't want Russia to know how much they know and why they know it.
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Nov 23, 2022 20:38
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Deteriorata posted:Those reasons are most likely that they don't want Russia to know how much they know and why they know it. Nah, Russians are probably quite capably of finding out that style of info if they want it. It's more likely out of habit or that there is something they don't like their own population to know.
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Nov 23, 2022 20:45
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Popete posted:If Valve cut Russia off from Steam that would be something. It would be the weirdest way to absolutely truthfully say that russia invading was a domino effect leading to improving my life (while at the same time adding another prominent woe to russians)
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Nov 23, 2022 21:03
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Popete posted:If Valve cut Russia off from Steam that would be something. Definitely something VPN providers would love.
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Nov 23, 2022 21:30
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Electric Wrigglies posted:Nah, Russians are probably quite capably of finding out that style of info if they want it. It's more likely out of habit or that there is something they don't like their own population to know. No, what would be required to "prove" either version of what happened would basically be AWACS sensor readouts of the airspace situation during the incident and those feel kinda more spicy to me than some rando HUD / drone video.
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Nov 23, 2022 21:32
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Valve isn't accepting Russian currency or paying Russian developers, right? i.e. if people in Russia can somehow add foreign currency to their Steam wallets they can still buy games, but no money is going into Russia.
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Nov 23, 2022 21:46
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pseudorandom name posted:Valve isn't accepting Russian currency or paying Russian developers, right? I think they're not transferring funds to Russian banks. Russian developers with a bank somewhere else do get paid. Owlcat is Russian, but relocated to Cyprus I think. I think they're getting their royalties. Oh, and Russian customer definitely do buy things on Steam - ask anyone with an app on Steam and/or access to the product/financial reports. At least I see some, although the numbers are so low it could be embassy staff or something. But people with more volume of sales could probably clear this up better (or prefer not to comment?)
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Nov 23, 2022 21:53
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Steam allows products to be redeemed via key (which developers can create an infinite number of at no cost), and there's a thriving grey market in said keys, so even if Steam doesn't accept Russian currency/banks Russian gamers could get steam games as long as they can purchase a key from someone. Whether this (and continuing to service already purchased games to customers in Russia) is actually objectionable I'm less clear on. It doesn't seem like it really helps the Russian economy much, and I don't see Russian gamers rising up to depose Putin because their Steam games no longer work, so it seems like Valve enforcing something like that would mostly just serve to frustrate Russian gamers.
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Nov 23, 2022 22:14
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Bremen posted:Steam allows products to be redeemed via key (which developers can create an infinite number of at no cost), and there's a thriving grey market in said keys, so even if Steam doesn't accept Russian currency/banks Russian gamers could get steam games as long as they can purchase a key from someone. It doesn't work like that if the game is not available in the region, I believe. You just don't see Pentiment if you're in Russia, for example, and you can't interact with it at all. Plus, rather than jumping through all these hoops, for an average Russian it's easier just to pirate the game, like it's 2010 again.
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Nov 23, 2022 22:18
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TheRat posted:Russia has been almost out of missiles/shells/supplies since like April according to most of these sources. I'm not entirely sure I trust any of them any longer. when was the last time you saw a tochka and how many kalibrs per month are you seeing? If you look at what they're actually using it's pretty clear what stocks are basically depleted and/or getting used at roughly the rate that they can build more.
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Nov 23, 2022 22:22
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sean10mm posted:They've been wrong both ways; Russia supposedly had 7,000 T-72 and 3,000 T-80 series in reserve, but are already throwing in T-62 shitboxes in spite of taking nowhere near enough losses for that to make sense unless the "credible" prewar numbers were always a joke. IIRC one of the reasons that the collapse of the USSR came as a surprise to us was "Nobody considered that Russia was lying to itself" in terms of economic figures/conditions. I would be absolutely not shocked one iota if those numbers were almost entirely on paper, or "These tanks existed and we had them at one point, the last time an inventory/audit was done. In 1993." And since then they've been stripped and sold for parts/scrap/movie props/whatever. Looking at some of the publicly available satellite overheads for a lot of their storage depots, the bulk look to have been stored outside unprotected from the elements (like, no wrapping or preventative coverings such as what the US does when we long-term-store our stuff out in the desert where it never rains), and are just a solid mass of rust. Yes. That tanks "Exists". Will it ever function again? ... doubtful.
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Nov 23, 2022 22:46
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Then again RUS attacks look the exact way they always have, a bunch of BMPs trundling forward across some field, so they are presumably still replacing losses in some fashion. The number of T-62s on Oryx isn't crazy high and they don't have the wacky hodgepodges of foreign MRAPs/APCs/IMVs in their attacks the way Ukraine has.
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Nov 23, 2022 23:14
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sean10mm posted:They've been wrong both ways; Russia supposedly had 7,000 T-72 and 3,000 T-80 series in reserve, but are already throwing in T-62 shitboxes in spite of taking nowhere near enough losses for that to make sense unless the "credible" prewar numbers were always a joke. There was an interesting video on this by Military History Visualized recently. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SehCWABGTpU If you don't want to watch the whole thing the gist is Russia probably doesn't want to use T-80s as they run on gas turbine engines that consume a ton of fuel and for the warfare they are fighting in Ukraine the marginal armour upgrade and the nice to have optics aren't worth the logistics problems it would take to bring a bunch of T-80s into the fight.
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Nov 23, 2022 23:15
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Popete posted:There was an interesting video on this by Military History Visualized recently. Then why are they already using so many of them? They've already lost well over 300 of them, according to Oryx's list. Also makes me wonder why they would be taking old T-72As from Belarus if their own tanks are so plentiful. Sir John Falstaff fucked around with this message at 23:34 on Nov 23, 2022 |
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Nov 23, 2022 23:20
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Sir John Falstaff posted:Then why are they already using so many of them? They've already lost well over 300 of them, according to Oryx's list Speaking of Oryx, they not happy this morning https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/status/1595382982881300481/photo/1 Someone got footage of a Russian armor graveyard/boneyard. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cTUFoqu5VCU Video of said graveyard - mainetenace facilty - it's apparently 9kms from the Ukrainian border. There's over 260 vehicles in one screenshot alone. Very much proof of what Oryx have said that their list will always be considerably short of the true vehicle losses Russia has sustained.
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Nov 23, 2022 23:33
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OddObserver posted:Well, Cloudflare is very not surprising, given how they have a history of helping Nazis for "freeze-peach" reasons. ironically it may be in part that a major customer is a firm that operates gambling kiosks for bars or w/e in russia. gambling is illegal in russia for the most part, so these would frequently get added to the RKN blocklist by FNS. effectively the business relationship was that cloudflare would let them burn and rotate IPs for the sites, since RKN would eventually de-list them once they were no longer serving the site in question idk if that's still the case--my knowledge is like 5y out of date--but https://reestr.rublacklist.net/en/?status=all&gov=22&date_start=&date_end= suggests it still is. those are almost all CF IPs and the one "vulkan"/"vulcan" domain are at least a name i recognize that customer using
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Nov 23, 2022 23:36
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Sir John Falstaff posted:Then why are they already using so many of them? They've already lost well over 300 of them, according to Oryx's list. T-80s prior to the war only made up 17% of Russias tanks in service with T-72s making up 70.8% The video goes into more explanation but the main point is that bringing more of them online would make their resource logistics which already appears strained even worse as they consume a ton of fuel and are more difficult maintenance wise. They're probably using T-80s that were already in service but are opting to use more T-72 and T-64 because although the T-80 is a better tank it isn't significantly better to justify the logistics pain. A T-80 and a T-64 are both going to get blown up by a top attack AT weapon but one consumes 5 times as much fuel. Popete fucked around with this message at 23:40 on Nov 23, 2022 |
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Nov 23, 2022 23:36
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CAT INTERCEPTOR posted:Speaking of Oryx, they not happy this morning Is this a graveyard of decommissioned armor or is it a graveyard of knocked out vehicles the Russians haul out of Ukraine?
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Nov 23, 2022 23:40
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Popete posted:T-80s prior to the war only made up 17% of Russias tanks in service with T-72s making up 70.8% I'd note that a lot are being used and that oryx's list (while good) should not be taken as an authoritative list that doesn't have major limitations wrt what will end up documented closely enough to get precisely identified and tallied, which is the big issue). The big limitation to what Oryx does is that either Russians have to photograph something or the line has to move enough that people can get close enough to document it before a retrieval team gets to it. There's a whole second war on vehicles happening outside of Oryx's identified list that you can see if you look through the 'unidentified tanks' (or other vehicles) lists at the end. Stuff getting hit miles back from the front never gets photographed and identified and tallied. On this note, Ukraine has probably destroyed and damaged considerably more t90s than Oryx's list shows. T-80s are definitely getting used, they just seem to end up on the front lines less and significantly across the front lines even less, outside of rapid changes to the front. Russia being conservative with less replaceable materiel is how they've operated for at least a decade.
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Nov 23, 2022 23:58
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Sir John Falstaff posted:Then why are they already using so many of them? They've already lost well over 300 of them, according to Oryx's list. The elite(?) 4th Guards Tanks Division was the one unit equipped with them, and they got mauled a couple of times; and now I think they're pulling a bunch from storage and using in other spots since they're apparently in better shape than 72s?
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Nov 24, 2022 00:08
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CAT INTERCEPTOR posted:Speaking of Oryx, they not happy this morning So they just deadass flew a drone 9km into Russian territory? What air defense doing indeed.
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Nov 24, 2022 00:09
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Doccers posted:what the US does when we long-term-store our stuff out in the desert where it never rains) We must be doing something to our stored airframes. The Davis-Monthan boneyard is in Tucson. They have a monsoon season there from the end of June to late August/early September during which there are inches of rain every day. Here, the boneyard is just to the right of the marker for Highway 10. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cvGJyuDplCg&t=64s I learned very quickly that when the weather report said "25% chance of rain" they meant "...at any given moment. The lightning displays are also spectacular; if you look at a time lapse photo showing 6-10 major bolts, that's maybe five-minute's worth of time lapse. mllaneza fucked around with this message at 00:26 on Nov 24, 2022 |
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Nov 24, 2022 00:23
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mllaneza posted:We must be doing something to our stored airframes. The Davis-Monthan boneyard is in Tucson. They have a monsoon season there from the end of June to late August/early September during which there are inches of rain every day. Here, the boneyard is just to the right of the marker for Highway 10. Yeah, we weatherproof them/wrap them,  Crappy shutterstock photo but it gets the point across. We do the same thing with our tank boneyards, naval mothball fleet, etc - There's a fascinating video from Battleship New Jersey on the process of mothballing a ship and everything they do to prevent corrosion and decay and the process for reactivating it etc. I'll try and find the link.
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Nov 24, 2022 00:36
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Popete posted:T-80s prior to the war only made up 17% of Russias tanks in service with T-72s making up 70.8% Maybe--a T-62 also requires a crew of 4, while a T-80 requires crew of 3 (the t-62 doesn't have an autoloader), which would seem to present its own problems, logistically and otherwise. It also uses a different gun, meaning different shells (t-62 uses a 115mm gun, while the t-80 and t-72 use a 125mm). Also, Russia was already supporting T-80s--adding T-62s means another MBT variant Russia has to support. But I'll admit I'm not an expert, and that may be an explanation.
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Nov 24, 2022 00:41
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Doccers posted:Yeah, we weatherproof them/wrap them,  They also pull the engines and put keep them in sealed crates elsewhere in the boneyard. Drain and purge all fluid lines, probably fill everything they can with dry Nitrogen. I forget some of the details; it's been 8 years.
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Nov 24, 2022 00:46
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TasogareNoKagi posted:
Yep. Russia just appears to drive them into their holding yards, park them, maybe close the hatch if they're feeling generous, and ..... ... 18 years later: "Hey we can use this one, right?"
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Nov 24, 2022 00:49
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All I see is F16's that should be flying over Ukraine tbh.
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Nov 24, 2022 00:49
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spankmeister posted:All I see is F16's that should be flying over Ukraine tbh. We should also give them F-14's specifically for shooting down Iranian drones, just to rub it in.
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Nov 24, 2022 00:50
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Doccers posted:We should also give them F-14's specifically for shooting down Iranian drones, just to rub it in. 
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Nov 24, 2022 00:52
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Sir John Falstaff posted:Maybe--a T-62 also requires a crew of 4, while a T-80 requires crew of 3 (the t-62 doesn't have an autoloader), which would seem to present its own problems, logistically and otherwise. It also uses a different gun, meaning different shells (t-62 uses a 115mm gun, while the t-80 and t-72 use a 125mm). Also, Russia was already supporting T-80s--adding T-62s means another MBT variant Russia has to support. But I'll admit I'm not an expert, and that may be an explanation. But most crucially, the T-62 doesn't have an autoloader you need to get functional before you can use it. You can get the diesel engine of the T-62 or a T-72 running without too much effort even if it hasn't been well preserved. But the autoloader? Forget about it. You'd have to just straight up replace it. I think this is the main reason they are pulling out T-62:s instead of the large pool of mothballed T-72s. They just don't have the resources or parts to repair autoloaders fast enough to push the tanks to the front at a reasonable rate. Doccers posted:We should also give them F-14's specifically for shooting down Iranian drones, just to rub it in. There aren't any. The US has preserved all other military equipment as it's been taken off the line, but the F-14:s and all their parts were systematically destroyed. The reasoning was apparently to prevent likelihood of useful parts of knowledge ending up in Iran.
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Nov 24, 2022 01:03
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Donkringel posted:Is this a graveyard of decommissioned armor or is it a graveyard of knocked out vehicles the Russians haul out of Ukraine? The latter. Maybe some get repaired, a lot of others probably getting stripped for parts to keep whatever Russia has left going.
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Nov 24, 2022 01:31
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CAT INTERCEPTOR posted:Speaking of Oryx, they not happy this morning This should be straightforward for people who are knowledgeable about it to geolocate, right?
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Nov 24, 2022 01:52
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