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TZer0 posted:The recent attacks are just incredibly wild to me.
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Nov 24, 2022 14:30
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Antigravitas posted:As I predicted, Poland is again acting in bad faith. What are they playing at?
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Nov 24, 2022 14:32
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Rinkles posted:What are they playing at? Polish politicisns are often addicted to saying dumb poo poo. There's no plan, no moral, only stupid
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Nov 24, 2022 14:36
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Rinkles posted:What are they playing at? Asking Germany to place Patriot batteries in Ukraine is the definition of bad faith.
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Nov 24, 2022 14:45
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PederP posted:They're difficult to track with area-coverage radar, but they're slow and very easy to track + shoot down once spotted. This makes old-fashioned AA, like an autocannon mounted on a vehicle, a good counter. Units cannot rely on wider AA coverage and air supremacy removing the need for local AA. Especially not if guarding a fixed position. It's also important to discern between target-acquisition radar and early warning radar. The latter deals poorly with these drones, but the former is still perfectly usable once a drone is spotted. Not quite that simple. They're difficult to track, because in general AAA has radars meant to find and track bigass manned airplanes from the 1960's-80's. Not just because the drones are small but also because they're slow - remember that radar is capable of "seeing" a bunch of things in the sky from clouds to eddies in wind currents to birds. Being slow actually compounds this problem - not many of those things look like a big metal airplane going hundreds of miles per hour, but a lot of them might look like a tiny plastic quadcopter going a few tens of km/h with a camera hanging off it. This is compounded by the need to make the radar view coherent for the operator - even if your sensor is capable of "seeing" it the software will actively ignore things that don't look like an airplane/helicopter/cruise missile/whatever because you don't want to see every bird in the sky on your air defense radar. As you say, this is more of an issue with search radar, but it's also going to be a problem with older systems' tracking radars that were never meant for such small targets - not that you'd get a chance to use it often against a drone that's nearly invisible to the eye and silent from the ground and doesn't show up on the search radar... The second issue is actually shooting it down. A shilka, for example, is firing a shitload of explosive cannon rounds. But these are contact fused shells so you have to actually hit the tiny rear end drone with one of those shells, and the volume of fire shakes the vehicle in such a way that it makes it very inaccurate. This was perfectly fine against subsonic manned jets at <2km away in the 60's. Even the more advanced cold war radar or magnetic fused proximity burst ammunition is unlikely to trigger on something like a small consumer drone - it's just not the sort of thing those shells were meant to work against. The gepard is one of the few older AAA designs that *might* work kinda ok because it's actually programming each shell it fires with a time to burst based on the tracking radar's firing solution - the shell is blind but the tracking radar told it when to go bang so it should explode near whatever it was fired at. So it's actually a pretty big challenge. Current SHORAD designs to combat drones tend to combine software driven IRST sensors looking for hot things in the sky with a millimeter wave radar, both driven by a computer searching for things that look like drones. The guns tend to work similarly to the gepard - programmable airbursting munitions, but unlike the gepard only firing a couple of them at a time. Warbadger fucked around with this message at 15:15 on Nov 24, 2022 |
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Nov 24, 2022 14:53
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Rinkles posted:What are they playing at? "German bad" is half of the PiS platform. There's really no point trying to work with Poland, they are more interested their white nationalist project than anything else, and for that they need an external enemy. Not coincidentally, Germany opposes their autocratic projects at the EU level. Warbadger posted:So it's actually a pretty big challenge. Current SHORAD designs to combat drones tend to combine software driven IRST sensors looking for hot things in the sky with a millimeter wave radar searching for things that look like drones on radar. The guns tend to work similarly to the gepard - programmable airbursting munitions, but unlike the gepard only firing a couple of them at a time. Gepards fire in small bursts, and the ammunition isn't programmed. The Gepard measures velocity of rounds as they exit the barrel to adjust the firing solution. You're thinking of successor systems like the Mantis.
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Nov 24, 2022 15:17
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Prigozin being completely normal:
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Nov 24, 2022 17:09
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alex314 posted:Prigozin being completely normal: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MkWnd1uIa94
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Nov 24, 2022 17:12
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Antigravitas posted:Gepards fire in small bursts, and the ammunition isn't programmed. The Gepard measures velocity of rounds as they exit the barrel to adjust the firing solution. You're thinking of successor systems like the Mantis. Yep, you're right, I recalled incorrectly regarding the gepard's round fusing. It's just impact fused HE with the sensors on the muzzle recording velocity to improve the ballistic calculations. So, even there it's pretty unlikely to hit a little drone. Small bursts equates to 48 rounds, which is an awful lot compared to the newer systems. It's admittedly small compared to a lot of its contemporary systems like the shilka, vulcan, or tunguska that went for balls to the wall bullet saturation to improve accuracy. Warbadger fucked around with this message at 17:17 on Nov 24, 2022 |
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Nov 24, 2022 17:14
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sean10mm posted:Strategic bombing is historically a dud even when dropping several orders of magnitude more bombs on civilian infrastructure than Russia is with its missile attacks. It's like people have no sense of scale with this poo poo. It's a tantrum, not an activity that will meaningfully help Russia win the war. Yeah but strategic bombing was super imprecise, even in Vietnam, so even if the magnitude is orders less, it could be as effective in terms of morale and civilian targets. Hitting power plants and water purification plants probably also has a much greater morale effect on a modern country like Ukraine than it does on a pre-industrial society like 2020s, Tigray, 1960s Vietnam, or 1940s Ukraine. But yeah I definitely agree it won't cause Ukraine to roll over and die though, it'll just make people miserable and the time for Russia to pull a US in Iraq in 2003 is long, long since passed.
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Nov 24, 2022 17:22
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Ukraine got FAPDS ammo afaik, it's not HE but kinetic. Bursts are selectable depending on target, "kurz" would be 6 rounds, "normal" is 20. 
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Nov 24, 2022 17:28
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Wouldn't it be better to target actual military infrastructure or choke points like major freeways or bridges? Or save them for actual combat?
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Nov 24, 2022 17:29
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Crosby B. Alfred posted:Wouldn't it be better to target actual military infrastructure or choke points like major freeways or bridges? Or save them for actual combat? Yes, but the decision makers are an organized crime operation masquerading as a government, who are attempting to intimidate people into submission and/or get revenge for the purpose of placating domestic fascists. Not a professional military making sound tactical decisions. Warbadger fucked around with this message at 17:36 on Nov 24, 2022 |
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Nov 24, 2022 17:32
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Antigravitas posted:"German bad" is half of the PiS platform. There's really no point trying to work with Poland, they are more interested their white nationalist project than anything else, and for that they need an external enemy. Not coincidentally, Germany opposes their autocratic projects at the EU level. You are correct unfortunately. i.e. Germany will not agree to this proposal and PiS will try to spin it in such way so as to claim Poland does not need aforementioned missiles anyway and once again Germany does not intend to help Ukraine. It is beyond stupid and a good example of cheap short term politicking and not building military capacity and resilience in this part of Europe. Hopefully I am wrong.
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Nov 24, 2022 17:37
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Crosby B. Alfred posted:Wouldn't it be better to target actual military infrastructure or choke points like major freeways or bridges? Or save them for actual combat? If you're talking about the Iranian-made drones, no. They are largely waypoint programmable and have a warhead that can knock out very fragile infrastructure or point targets, but would be a complete waste vs roads and bridges. So using them against any kind of hardened road or moving/mobile target is kind of pointless. The Russians have been using Lancet drones to target actual mobile combat units and personnel.
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Nov 24, 2022 17:40
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Crosby B. Alfred posted:Wouldn't it be better to target actual military infrastructure or choke points like major freeways or bridges? Or save them for actual combat? Those are harder to locate or they are more scattered or change place or have point defence assets. An electric plant or substation is on all the maps and easy to hit and cause expensive damage. Hitting a bridge or a road is unlikely to have much effect with the size of warheads they have and even then repairs are cheap, so unless you get lucky and hit something valuable just driving through it's going to be wasteful. Russia has also bombed plenty of targets directly tied to Ukrainian military in the past, but there are only so many obvious military targets for cruise missiles. Once you have hit all known pre-invasion depots, airfields and garrisons, what are you going to do when your intelligence services come up with nothing on their new HQs or training facilities or everything is too dispersed to make for a worthy target?
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Nov 24, 2022 18:17
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Nenonen posted:Russia has also bombed plenty of targets directly tied to Ukrainian military in the past, but there are only so many obvious military targets for cruise missiles. Once you have hit all known pre-invasion depots, airfields and garrisons, what are you going to do when your intelligence services come up with nothing on their new HQs or training facilities or everything is too dispersed to make for a worthy target? "Man, we've got all these missiles and not many good targets! Welp, I guess we gotta blow up some random highrises and pedestrian bridges, maybe destroy power infrastructure while having state propaganda networks joke about freezing the civilian populace over the winter! No way around it!" There's a lot of options in that situation, the easiest one being "Just don't use the missiles so you still have them when you do find targets". Warbadger fucked around with this message at 19:46 on Nov 24, 2022 |
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Nov 24, 2022 19:29
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I thought I haven't seen Iranian drone attacks recently https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1595869675648344064
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Nov 24, 2022 23:10
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Dwesa posted:I thought I haven't seen Iranian drone attacks recently That sounds like propaganda, not gonna lie
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Nov 24, 2022 23:11
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TheRat posted:That sounds like propaganda, not gonna lie By my count, this is at least the second time they’ve been killed.
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Nov 24, 2022 23:12
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cinci zoo sniper posted:By my count, this is at least the second time they’ve been killed. Maybe they're secretly cats. Also, didn't we see a story a few days ago about how Iran and Russia had made a deal to manufacture more drones in Russia?
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Nov 24, 2022 23:14
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TheRat posted:Maybe they're secretly cats. Also, didn't we see a story a few days ago about how Iran and Russia had made a deal to manufacture more drones in Russia? Yes, I posted it from the Washington Post.
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Nov 24, 2022 23:16
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cinci zoo sniper posted:By my count, this is at least the second time they’ve been killed. Did the article imply they were the only instructors in existence?
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Nov 24, 2022 23:20
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cinci zoo sniper posted:By my count, this is at least the second time they’ve been killed. By my reading of the linked article and the Guardian article it links to, this is the first time that Ukraine has confirmed the killings. It was first reported by Israelis in October. Ten Iranian instructors died. Of course it's interesting that the news first came from Israel...
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Nov 24, 2022 23:37
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cinci zoo sniper posted:By my count, this is at least the second time they’ve been killed. To be fair, there's probably more than one of them. But yeah, take it with a grain of salt.
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Nov 24, 2022 23:46
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https://twitter.com/tannyshanny/status/1595799109113372675?t=QwnFWRUEv1sqXJ3p6whnWA&s=19 This is how Ukraine looked last night. This means no lights, no communications, no heating at +2 celcius. Hospitals, emergency services, everything
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Nov 24, 2022 23:47
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Sekenr posted:This is how Ukraine looked last night. This means no lights, no communications, no heating at +2 celcius. Hospitals, emergency services, everything Not really except in select hospitals that were directly hit as well. Such facilities have backup power available because black outs can happen even in better times when someone screws up. But regardless it's an over the top war crime.
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Nov 24, 2022 23:56
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Sekenr posted:https://twitter.com/tannyshanny/status/1595799109113372675?t=QwnFWRUEv1sqXJ3p6whnWA&s=19 Print this image, tape it over one's fist, slug the next idiot who says "NATO encroachment" with it.
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Nov 25, 2022 00:04
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cinci zoo sniper posted:By my count, this is at least the second time they’ve been killed. It sounds like they're referencing the same 10 reportedly killed back in October? Might be an issue of grammar with google translate though.
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Nov 25, 2022 00:08
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WarpedLichen posted:It sounds like they're referencing the same 10 reportedly killed back in October? I’m double checking the story, the source of which is actually the Guardian article linked in the posted tweet, rather than Union reporters, and the Guardian piece does in fact seem to be reporting a confirmation of just that, the October strike. Tiny Timbs posted:Did the article imply they were the only instructors in existence? The rhetoric in October did make it sound like the claim was for the whole instructor contingent, as in that the matter has become a solved problem for UAF.
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Nov 25, 2022 00:19
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Nenonen posted:Not really except in select hospitals that were directly hit as well. Such facilities have backup power available because black outs can happen even in better times when someone screws up. But regardless it's an over the top war crime. How long does backup power lasts? Is is magic? It needs diesel which is who knows when and how much under bombardment and, well, lack of fucken electricity which you need for almost everything. Here is Kyiv now https://twitter.com/ptuxerman/status/1595906648626831360?t=oss0GUxrUdOnpIr9lH-fUw&s=19
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Nov 25, 2022 00:41
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I was honestly pretty surprised when Russia didn't completely hammer Ukraine's energy infrastructure back in February-March.
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Nov 25, 2022 00:45
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BoldFace posted:I was honestly pretty surprised when Russia didn't completely hammer Ukraine's energy infrastructure back in February-March. The message had not yet reached Putin that the VDV he dropped in Hostomel airport were all ded, as were his day 1 assassins in Kyiv, and his entire Kyiv front had the efficacy of a Magikarp. Thus he still thought he could decapitate the Kyiv government and the Ukrainian people would "flock" to greet him as liberators. The more you bomb those people the less they flock to you. That explains why he didn't do this in the first 2 months. After the Kyiv retreat was complete, I'm guessing he thought these weapons were mostly still good for tactical use, so no orders to mass-destruct infrastructure. Just the occasional terror bombing when his black heart felt like it. But now he's got tens of thousands of untrained conscripts trying to hold the front and he's still losing ground. And a giant chunk of his best troops and equipment blew up months ago. So now killing the populace is the only card he really has left. Plus winter is kicking in, so there's no time to fix the damage before people start freezing to death.
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Nov 25, 2022 00:54
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BoldFace posted:I was honestly pretty surprised when Russia didn't completely hammer Ukraine's energy infrastructure back in February-March. Back then they operated under the delusion that they'll be welcomed as liberators from jew-nazi drug addict Zelensky and thus non-combatants aught to be spared to, well, welcome them. Now its clear that every Ukranian is as bad and deserves no mercy E: But honestly the plan here is to cause Ukrianians to riot and demand "gently caress it, surrender is better than this poo poo existance", but I'm not so sure it will work, also everyone should quadruple their aid Sekenr fucked around with this message at 01:08 on Nov 25, 2022 |
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Nov 25, 2022 00:56
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Orthanc6 posted:But now he's got tens of thousands of untrained conscripts trying to hold the front and he's still losing ground. And a giant chunk of his best troops and equipment blew up months ago. So now killing the populace is the only card he really has left. Plus winter is kicking in, so there's no time to fix the damage before people start freezing to death. What is his end game now? I don't think Putin is stupid in the sense that he must know he can't win by now. I'm assuming at best he somehow manages to hold his ground or some of it over winter while hoping he can push in the Spring with new troops and angle for some kind of cease-fire. He'd technically lose but he could be maybe claiming some partial victory then scapegoat the west and some of his generals. Unless he really believes the West is that weak and will eventually break? And with all his supply and morale problems... things don't look good.
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Nov 25, 2022 01:24
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Putin's endgame is play for time until he dies of old age or Trump takes back the white house.
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Nov 25, 2022 01:28
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Crosby B. Alfred posted:What is his end game now? There's a chance he knows his bombing campaign won't work, it never worked in the past. In WW2 several German cities were bombed to dirt, nothing but capturing the entire country and deleting the entire government could force peace. Japan surrendered cause they were an island that had lost the air and sea war, and then with the US on their doorstep the Soviets tagged in. Tokyo, Hiroshima and Nagasaki being levelled didn't stop them, they would have made the US bleed for every inch of Honshu if it wasn't for the super-power team up. Whether Putin knows that or not is rather irrelevant; if he can't win on the battlefield then causing internal strife in Ukraine, or NATO, or both, is the only chance Putin has at holding on to anything at the end of all this. And with the isolationist/treasonous parts of the GOP not getting substantial control from the US midterms, the primary force of NATO won't be folding for at least another 2 years. By which time this could all be over, ideally with Putin being defenestrated multiple times.
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Nov 25, 2022 01:40
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Orthanc6 posted:By which time this could all be over, ideally with Putin being defenestrated multiple times. I thought Russia had buildings which were taller than 2 storey?
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Nov 25, 2022 01:57
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Well the Putin tactic is something like this: >send 100 cruise missiles to destroy energyinfrastructure Are you ready to accept a lovely peace deal? No?! >send 100 cruise missiles to destroy energy infrastructure Are you ready now to accept a lovely peace deal? No?! >send 100 cruise missiles to destroy energy infrastructure Are you ready now to accept a lovely peace deal? You must be? No?! repeat x32603603
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Nov 25, 2022 03:47
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:Putin's endgame is play for time until he dies of old age or Trump takes back the white house. betting on the american political system shifting power back to the dumbest and worst version of ourselves by fiat is unfortunately an arguably useful play, depending on 2024 turnout
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Nov 25, 2022 04:17
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