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Side you're looking forward to on Thanksgiving
This poll is closed.
Mashed Potatoes & Gravy 15 17.24%
Stuffing 32 36.78%
Green Bean Casserole 6 6.90%
Rolls 6 6.90%
Cranberry Sauce 6 6.90%
Sweet Potatoes 8 9.20%
Pies 14 16.09%
Total: 87 votes
[Edit Poll (moderators only)]

 
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R.D. Mangles
Jan 10, 2004


it's time for Touchdown Trevor

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fartknocker
Oct 28, 2012


Damn it, this always happens. I think I'm gonna score, and then I never score. It's not fair.



Wedge Regret

Chris James 2 posted:

Good and smart

Not things one usually associates with the Bears and QB decisions.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=liuSbrghzmk

Ehud
Sep 19, 2003

football.

gonna be embarrassing losing to the semen led bears

mllaneza
Apr 28, 2007

Veteran, Bermuda Triangle Expeditionary Force, 1993-1952





Amazing. Now do the Niners please. Our last win was in 1994 so it's pretty much the same period.

R.D. Mangles
Jan 10, 2004


trevor siemian was not even a good quarterback in college, i'm flabbergasted that he's made a career out of this.

Grittybeard
Mar 29, 2010

Bad, very bad!

R.D. Mangles posted:

trevor siemian was not even a good quarterback in college, i'm flabbergasted that he's made a career out of this.

Every time his name comes up I giggle a little bit that he's managed to do this after half losing the job to Kain Colter.

Ehud
Sep 19, 2003

football.

ahhhhhhh

Ehud
Sep 19, 2003

football.

wrong thread!!!!!!!!!!!

SKULL.GIF
Jan 20, 2017


R.D. Mangles posted:

trevor siemian was not even a good quarterback in college, i'm flabbergasted that he's made a career out of this.

Turns out being studious, reliable, and uninjured are far more attractive traits in the pros than in college.

R.D. Mangles
Jan 10, 2004


i think being able to throw the ball to a receiver would be important too, but apparently not

Cavauro
Jan 9, 2008

siemian vs white is a dream come true. i will show you their breakouts as nfl qbs and the first steps they took toward the journey that could culminate this week

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/201609250cin.htm
Trevor Siemian - 23/35 312 yards, 4 TD and the W

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/202110310nyj.htm
Mike White - 37/45 405 yards, 3 TD and the W

Redeye Flight
Mar 26, 2010

God, I'm so tired. What the hell did I post last night?

mllaneza posted:

Amazing. Now do the Niners please. Our last win was in 1994 so it's pretty much the same period.

Oh, aight! For the record, I'm getting all these numbers in digestible format off Champs or Chumps.

The Niners' overall win percentage is way under either the Cowboys or Vikings at #19 overall since 2000, and they have appeared in the playoffs fewer years than either -- 7 times to 8 for DAL or MIN. However, they've been WAY more successful in the playoffs by comparison, with 10 playoff game victories in that time span, which is twice as many.

In just the last ten years they've won two games in the playoffs each time they appeared for a total of six -- the last eleven, actually, and they've appeared in the Super Bowl twice in that time frame (though, uh, they did lose both of them). Their OVERALL win percentage is way under, though, at 46.5 -- when the Niners are bad, they're bad bad. The last time they missed the playoffs with a winning record was 1991.

This tracks with my general perception of the Niners, which is basically a supercar team. When they're on the road, they're hell on wheels. But when they crash, they get TOTALED. You can also see the massive cliff dive they took when they picked Trent Baalke over Jim Harbaugh, which is a big part of why their win percentage is so atrocious overall. If you narrow the space down to exactly the window between 2014, Harbaugh's last season, and 2019, the year they went back to the Super Bowl, the 49ers' record is 17-47. That and the abyss of the 2000's is a huge chunk of their losing percentage.


Though, interestingly, even in their heyday the 49ers have had a LOT of 2-win seasons -- five overall. Like I said, when the Niners are bad, they suck on ice. But they also had a period of eighteen goddamn years where they won ten games every single year (except the strike season in '82), so. That's what Jerry Rice will do to a MF.


Uh, and I guess I'll take any other requests -- this kind of thing (taking a bunch of data, looking at it, and drawing conclusions/patterns/stories/context from it) is basically what I do for my day job and I love it, so I'm happy to do any others.


Edit: Also, for the record, the Niners have also actually been the worst team in the NFCW by win percentage in the last ten years thanks to that cliff dive, but actually really only because of that cliff dive. The Rams spent half that period doing absolutely nothing worth noting (and the other half being playoff bound, they've only had one sub-6-win season since 2013 not counting the ongoing disaster) and the Cardinals spent it being either burning garbage or exceptionally good, but the real reason is, of course, Seattle. The Seahawks have missed the playoffs only six times in the last twenty years and actually won the division as many times as getting into the playoffs and missing them combined. It's been a real good millennium for Seattle, which makes everyone else in the West look worse by comparison with them hoovering up all the in-division wins and NFCW guaranteed playoff spots.

Redeye Flight fucked around with this message at 05:35 on Nov 26, 2022

Impossibly Perfect Sphere
Nov 6, 2002

They wasted Luanne on Lucky!

She could of have been so much more but the writers just didn't care!
Jets defense getting that 2021 run of QBs the Pats had to make em look elite.

Carlosologist
Oct 13, 2013

Revelry in the Dark


This kind of number crunching is pretty drat cool. Can you do the Giants? They’re another franchise that’s had some serious ebb and flow in the last 15 or so years. I’m interested to see how the last decade of futility compared to the one from the 70s

Grittybeard
Mar 29, 2010

Bad, very bad!

Carlosologist posted:

This kind of number crunching is pretty drat cool. Can you do the Giants? They’re another franchise that’s had some serious ebb and flow in the last 15 or so years. I’m interested to see how the last decade of futility compared to the one from the 70s

Add the Jets on for fun if you feel like it. We all know how that one goes but hey, they had a couple three years in there making some noise.

Redeye Flight
Mar 26, 2010

God, I'm so tired. What the hell did I post last night?

Carlosologist posted:

This kind of number crunching is pretty drat cool. Can you do the Giants? They’re another franchise that’s had some serious ebb and flow in the last 15 or so years. I’m interested to see how the last decade of futility compared to the one from the 70s

Grittybeard posted:

Add the Jets on for fun if you feel like it. We all know how that one goes but hey, they had a couple three years in there making some noise.

You got it. Jets will get an additional post.

= = = = =

I feel like it's apt to start the Giants with, well, this.

quote:

The worst start to a Giants season was the 1976 New York Giants, who started the season at 0-9. The second worst start to a season was the 2013 New York Giants, who started the season with 6 losses. The third worst starts to a Giants season was the 2020 New York Giants, the 2017 New York Giants, the 1987 New York Giants and the 1979 New York Giants, who all started the season with 5 straight losses.

Yeah.

Febreze did a comic on this last decade with an excellent attached post that captures the feel better than an outsider probably ever could. The ten-year window for the Giants is the worst in the NFC East, which is really saying something considering that division also includes Washington. There's exactly one postseason appearance in the ten-year window, the 11-5 2016 season. This is partly because the last decade has been real good for Philly and Dallas (relatively in the latter's case), who have 8 of the 10 division titles between them and have been fielding quite good teams for the most part. Apart from 2016, the Giants don't make it to .500 at any point in this stretch. In fact, if it weren't for 2016, the current ongoing season would be their first seven-win season in the entire decade. It's, uh, bad.

Of course, then you expand out to the 20 year window, and there's 2012 with a 9-7 record, and hey, SUPER BOWL CHAMPION, 2011. Also have another one in 2007. This is the Eli Manning Effect. When it's not active, the Giants barely make it to the postseason and if they do get in, they don't win a single game. If it IS active? Super Bowl appearance. This actually predates Eli, too, since you have to go all the way back to '93 to see the Giants get knocked out of the postseason after winning a game but before reaching the Super Bowl. They have exactly three seasons in the last 30 years where they had a winning record but missed the playoffs. I kind of feel like that says more about the NFC East than the Giants in particular, especially because only two of their 10 playoffs appearances in that 30-year span are divisional round losses. It's either WC loss, or Super Bowl, for basically as long as I've been alive, but more often it's neither.


The good news, however, is that in actuality the 1970s misery is both broader AND deeper than the recent malaise. At no point in my lifetime (Redeye Flight est. 1990) have the Giants won less than three games in a season, and that only happened once in 2017. There's three four-win seasons in there, and two fives, but for the other 24 seasons the Giants are, if not always good, at least usually competitive -- note that between 1987 and 2013, the Giants never started a season worse than 0-4. This is, uh, not true of the early days. After the 1963 championship loss the Giants almost go 20 straight years without a playoffs appearance, with a grand total of three years in that stretch over .500. It also includes three two-win seasons and a single one-win season, which also featured a tie. In 1964 they had TWO ties, and that in a 14 game season. This would be broken with three straight years of playoffs wins culminating in the 1986 Super Bowl win, which must have been an absolutely unreal sensation. I cannot imagine how it must have felt to be a Giants fan in 1981 and realize you were going to the playoffs for the first time ever.


The interesting thing about the Giants is that their lack of extremely good seasons and extremely bad ones doesn't actually produce a plodding team because for a very long time, the two almost never chain together. I'm gonna link this Jon Bois video at the appropriate time stamp -- it's 5 years old by now so it doesn't cover the recent years of suck, but look at how much that drat graph moves around! Constantly going up and down. They're not even close to the most volatile team in the NFL, mathematically, but that's because their peaks are lower and their troughs are higher. The Giants are always on the move.

Redeye Flight fucked around with this message at 10:03 on Nov 26, 2022

The337th
Mar 30, 2011


paging MrLogan to the thread to do one of these recaps for the Raiders

Nissin Cup Nudist
Sep 3, 2011

Sleep with one eye open

We're off to Gritty Gritty land




Ehud posted:

gonna be embarrassing losing to the semen led bears

it would be funny but the Bears defense is godawful so Mike White should be ok if he doesn't throw the ball right to them

Redeye Flight
Mar 26, 2010

God, I'm so tired. What the hell did I post last night?

Grittybeard posted:

Add the Jets on for fun if you feel like it. We all know how that one goes but hey, they had a couple three years in there making some noise.

Last one for tonight.

= = = = =

The Jets are the easiest ones to talk about yet for the ten-year window in that it doesn't exist; the Jets have not made the playoffs once in the last ten years. This is actually an aberration, because when you expand that out to the 25/30-year window, the Jets have seven playoffs appearances in that span and are, actually, pretty successful in that they win at least one playoffs game when they make it in more often than not. The last two times they actually won two, which along with three conference championship appearances officially makes the Jets a better playoffs team than the Dallas Cowboys in every metric I can imagine since 1995.

Remember that Jon Bois video I linked, where the Giants are tied for 18th in the NFL for season-to-season volatility between 1987 and 2016? The Jets are 3rd. They will, on average, win or lose three more games each year than the last. This is spiked upward hard by some inexplicable stretches like the 2000's, where they alternate between winning 9+ games and winning 4 on alternating years like turning a light switch on and off. I'm sure there are in-moment explanations for that, but as pure numbers it looks completely baffling.

Despite that, however, on the whole the Jets are, uh... consistent. In a franchise that's existed for 56 seasons, they've had a winning record in 16 of them, which is something like 28% (importantly, not counting the current year in that statement, which has the potential to be Winning Season #17). Pick a year out of this list of Jets seasons and the odds are three-for-four that it'll be a losing season. This includes a rare "holding your breath underwater" stretch where they had the same losing record for three straight years in the 70's (3-11, ouch), almost getting a second one in 2016-2018 that was averted by losing an extra game in 2018, and a gripload of 4-12s. Though I will also say, the Jets have only ever had TWO seasons where they won less than three games. One was a Rich Kotite year, and the other was an Adam Gase year. The thing that makes this strange is that aforementioned volatility -- the Jets' strong seasons are interspersed with shocking consistency among the weak ones. They have basically no good stretches with no hiccups, but it's very rare for them to have a long stretch where they completely and utterly suck rear end with no exceptions. Hell, even in the last ten years they had the 10-6 2015 season.


The Jets are actually the team that suffers the most by far from being in the AFC East, and that goes a long way to explaining their everything. At basically every point in the Jets' history, one of their divisionmates has been a juggernaut rampaging across the NFL landscape. Initially, it was the Dolphins and the Colts, back when the Colts were in the East due to Baltimore. The Oilers were also there for a while, but, well, were bad. Then just as the Dolphins finally start running out of gas after decades of ranging from good to literally perfect and the Colts gently caress off to Indy, the Buffalo Bills explode like a supernova and tear up the late 80's and early 90's. And then just as the Bills and Dolphins' stars are fading so they can go be exiled into the desert for 20 years, here comes Thomas Brady and William Belichick to take the gong show that is the New England Patriots and dominate the NFL for two straight decades. Now as the Patriots are finally withering away, here come Buffalo and Miami, out of the god drat desert, ready to return from exile and kick rear end. It's almost not fair.

When you add up that timeline, it makes a lot more sense as to why "the Jets do not play football; football merely happens to them". The Jets have almost never even had the opportunity, let alone be in the position to capitalize on the opportunity, to be the dominant force in their division. Even when they're good, someone else in the division is in the ascendance, and that results in them getting shoved around by the force of those behemoths. This really shows in just how often the Jets actually win in the playoffs when they manage to get there at all -- out of 14 lifetime playoffs years, 8 of them featured at least one win.

The most illustrative stretch of this, I think, is actually in the 80's, at the height of the New York Sack Exchange era. There's two 7-9 years sandwiched between four winning records, and when you look at those years specifically, the Jets had in-division records of 3-5 for both. In those same two years, the Miami Dolphins beat them in both meetups (they went undefeated in-division in '84), won over 12 games, and in the second one in '84 they went to the Super Bowl.

The Jets, in any other division, could probably wind up as a regular-rear end football team. But they're in the AFC East, so for the entire time they've existed, they've been fighting against someone else's legend.

Redeye Flight fucked around with this message at 09:40 on Nov 26, 2022

Redeye Flight
Mar 26, 2010

God, I'm so tired. What the hell did I post last night?
Also, for more AFC East Fun Facts, the Bills are the other team that drastically illustrates this whole thing. I mentioned the Jets' "holding your breath underwater" stretch -- those are very rare, since that requires you to have the same losing record three years in a row despite roster changes on your part and the schedule being different. Between 1987 and 2016 there were only five in the entire NFL. The Jets have one back in the 70's, but the Bills have two of the others.

In other bits that reference Jon Bois videos, there's a moment in the first History of the Atlanta Falcons video where he goes over the Falcons-Saints rivalry and why it's so special compared to most rivalries in NFL history by showing a graph of the comparative records of both teams. There's ones like Bears-Packers which are both winning teams punching each other, etc., but Falcons-Saints is one of a very few rivalries that is two teams with historical losing records pitted against each other. Bills-Jets is also in that slim category. The Bills and Jets actually have about the same amount of postseason overall presence in terms of years made to the playoffs (17 for the Bills, 14 for the Jets), but the difference is that the Jets' are spread out almost as evenly as possible, while the Bills' success is consolidated about as strongly as possible in massive, mountainous chunks in between vast doldrums.

Redeye Flight fucked around with this message at 16:31 on Nov 26, 2022

Shinji2015
Aug 31, 2007
Keen on the hygiene and on the mission like a super technician.

Redeye Flight posted:

Cowboys/Vikings




Redeye Flight posted:

AFC East Fun Fact

These need to be in their own thread, they're too good to lose in a N/V thread that'll be locked in a few days

Kurgarra Queen
Jun 11, 2008

GIVE ME MORE
SUPER BOWL
WINS

Yeah, I’m digging these effort posts myself.

In recent memory, the Bills went 7-9 three years in a row. For some reason, this wasn’t sufficient reason to fire Dick Jauron - instead, he was fired towards the end of the subsequent season, in which the Bills finished 6-10. They were also ruthlessly owned by Brady to a much greater extent than the Dolphins or Jets.

Redeye Flight
Mar 26, 2010

God, I'm so tired. What the hell did I post last night?

Lance of Llanwyln posted:

Yeah, I’m digging these effort posts myself.

In recent memory, the Bills went 7-9 three years in a row. For some reason, this wasn’t sufficient reason to fire Dick Jauron - instead, he was fired towards the end of the subsequent season, in which the Bills finished 6-10. They were also ruthlessly owned by Brady to a much greater extent than the Dolphins or Jets.

Yep. What's wild is that it almost immediately happened again, because the Bills then had three years in a row where they went 6-10 -- the last two Chan Gailey years and the first Doug Marrone year, which is probably why that's not remembered as strongly since it was split between two head coaches.

I'll put this lot into its own thread later tonight, I think -- got a busy day today.

Chris James 2
Aug 9, 2012


A depth chart of Trevor Siemian and Nathan Peterman

https://twitter.com/AroundTheNFL/status/1596579542306459648?t=Cek-h-xTsYCcDldxyHHkRg&s=19

Doctor Teeth
Sep 12, 2008



yes...hahaha...yes!

fartknocker
Oct 28, 2012


Damn it, this always happens. I think I'm gonna score, and then I never score. It's not fair.



Wedge Regret
A game in 2022 where the QB depth charts are Trevor Siemian/Nathan Peterman against Mike White/Joe Flacco.

Flex this to primetime ASAP.

Forrest on Fire
Nov 23, 2012

fartknocker posted:

A game in 2022 where the QB depth charts are Trevor Siemian/Nathan Peterman against Mike White/Joe Flacco.

Flex this to primetime ASAP.

America's Game of the Weak

Henrik Zetterberg
Dec 7, 2007

Well, so much for the Browns. Joe Woods and their secondary seem to be playing for Ohio State at the moment.

Kurgarra Queen
Jun 11, 2008

GIVE ME MORE
SUPER BOWL
WINS

Redeye Flight posted:

Yep. What's wild is that it almost immediately happened again, because the Bills then had three years in a row where they went 6-10 -- the last two Chan Gailey years and the first Doug Marrone year, which is probably why that's not remembered as strongly since it was split between two head coaches.

I'll put this lot into its own thread later tonight, I think -- got a busy day today.
This stretch was sandwiched by the 9-7 Mike Mularkey team that missed the playoffs due to violently making GBS threads itself against the Steelers' back-ups at home and the final Doug Marrone year, where the Bills went...8-8.

At the time, going 8-8 was an exciting sign of progress! Then we hired Rex Ryan...:ughh:

Kurgarra Queen fucked around with this message at 21:19 on Nov 26, 2022

abelwingnut
Dec 23, 2002


i'm fairly sure jets-bears is going to be a massive shootout. gonna be good.

BlindSite
Feb 8, 2009

The best part about Jets v Bears having no quarterback talent on the field is that both teams best running backs are dead too.

R.D. Mangles
Jan 10, 2004


The jets have a very good defense. The bears have no defense. Jets are going to kill them.

lomzus
Mar 18, 2009
https://twitter.com/NFLTradeNews/status/1596841151381872640

ghosthorse
Dec 15, 2011

...you forget so easily...
The only thing keeping the Bears alive was Fields' godly scramble ability and speed. That o-line and Siemian in the pocket seems like a long loving day for Bears fans regardless of who QBs for the Jets

Shimrra Jamaane
Aug 10, 2007

Obscure to all except those well-versed in Yuuzhan Vong lore.

...numbness in his legs?

Jesus Christ you’re like 4-7 or whatever just shut it all down and come back next season.

really queer Christmas
Apr 22, 2014


Jesus, the rams season is over. Let the dude rest.

AAAAA! Real Muenster
Jul 12, 2008

My QB is also named Bort

News: https://twitter.com/Amie_Just/status/1596519688355614721?t=z4ACdANxYFRSl2Z-Ou3qKg&s=19

Views: Sure, he was decent in prior stints in college, whatever.

Diva Cupcake
Aug 15, 2005

https://twitter.com/nyjets/status/1596873981910450178

The Dave
Sep 9, 2003

Are those the starting QBs?

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Aaaaaaarrrrrggggg
Oct 4, 2004

ha, ha, ha, og me ekam

Shimrra Jamaane posted:

...numbness in his legs?

Jesus Christ you’re like 4-7 or whatever just shut it all down and come back next season.

Risking paralysis for a 4-7 season. I hate it.

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