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kntfkr posted:What if we condemn it? That'll learn 'em! i think its more, "sure we both hate the goverment, but they dont trust us and doing covert/direct action may just cause a rallying around effect for the goverment" situation. like i am sure the west and other places are quietly doing stuff and its clear the regime can't crush this.
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Nov 17, 2022 21:55
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mobby_6kl posted:Things still look pretty serious, they might be able to pull it off the mullahs are loving stupid that they are creating this many martyrs when they know that their revolution succedded partly because iran venerates martyrs(cultural and shia stuff) and your just creating more and more.
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Nov 17, 2022 22:12
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so don't click them
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Dapper_Swindler posted:the mullahs are loving stupid that they are creating this many martyrs when they know that their revolution succedded partly because iran venerates martyrs(cultural and shia stuff) and your just creating more and more. Yeah you'd think they of all people would know that lol, but I guess they just can't stop murdering kids Here's something nice for a change https://i.imgur.com/WAKeiJr.mp4
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Nov 17, 2022 22:18
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https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1593399948753739777
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Nov 18, 2022 01:44
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How do these protests compare in scale to the 2009 protests? It seems like it might be even bigger this time.
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Nov 18, 2022 04:14
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Charliegrs posted:How do these protests compare in scale to the 2009 protests? It seems like it might be even bigger this time. way more intense 
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Nov 18, 2022 05:09
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I have a vague memory of two theories, perhaps from earlier in this thread, about how the protests might lose steam - -The government offers a compromise of reduced morality police enforcement. It’s a small win for secularists and modernizers but doesn’t bring about a new government. -The protests remain contained to mostly young people. Iran is a relatively youthful society is but also divided by poverty and class like any other country. Without a mass mobilization of the poor and traditionally conservative the protests can’t reach a tipping point. What do better informed people think of these theories at this point? Do they hold up in light of all the recent killings and detentions? Is there actually more mobilization now, or just anger?
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Nov 18, 2022 09:41
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Charliegrs posted:How do these protests compare in scale to the 2009 protests? It seems like it might be even bigger this time. 2009 was just protests, this is teetering on the edge of full revolution. The protests are getting larger, more brazen and more violent every day, no sign of slowing yet. To the poster above: The government won't compromise, it's a fascist state totally reliant on strict enforcement of power. A compromise is a concession they won't take because it'll make them appear weak, it's doubling down all the way until the protests are squashed. As far as your second point goes, from my understanding a lot of the poor are already there, the initial and primary focus of the protests of course has been women's oppression, but each day it's becoming more and more about oppression in general. It's interesting to note there are no counter protests, even sham protests organised by the state. The only opposition to the protests is the state, it's already an extremely popular movement. The more they try to crack down, the more people will join in. The ball is rolling downhill at this point and gathering speed. Obviously I have bias and I'm hopeful for the people of Iran, unfortunately the state still has a LOT more capacity to crack down that could potentially break resolve so only time will tell.
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Nov 18, 2022 11:07
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Cocoa Ninja posted:I have a vague memory of two theories, perhaps from earlier in this thread, about how the protests might lose steam - They've already tried limpy 'reforms' and promises which is about as far as this sort of regime can offer without making itself look weak and exacerbating the fall. See: Soviet Union. There's a delicate balance, one that China for one is incredibly good at, between nothing and too much. So don't expect any concessions from them, they already offered the most they could- which isn't much. The regime knows that this will end in blood, either theirs or the protestors.
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Nov 18, 2022 12:08
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Some non-twitter footage for a change, mostly from last night it seems Khomeini's house https://i.imgur.com/l8ZieOq.mp4 Same city: https://i.imgur.com/tr6PfhB.mp4 Tehran https://i.imgur.com/88Hjl3J.mp4 Mashad https://i.imgur.com/vcBktfq.mp4 Dorood https://i.imgur.com/vnY8d7v.mp4 https://imgur.com/gallery/R1AeuRP mobby_6kl fucked around with this message at 14:41 on Nov 18, 2022 |
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Nov 18, 2022 14:34
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https://twitter.com/criticalthreats/status/1593419616335937538 I think they're right, it's progressing rapidly, is extremely widespread, people are increasingly fighting back and the regime is using extremely heavy violence in response. Some of the stuff out of Iran looks like an almost carbon copy of what was going on in Syria back in 2011.
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Nov 18, 2022 14:37
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Some more stuff https://i.imgur.com/zblammq.mp4 https://i.imgur.com/Zg8IQW3.mp4 https://i.imgur.com/OzR4sDN.mp4
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Nov 18, 2022 20:50
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I wonder if there's any noteworthy motion inside the clergy for reformations to avoid a bloodbath?
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Nov 19, 2022 21:04
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https://twitter.com/Joyce_Karam/status/1594095343590858753
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Nov 19, 2022 23:35
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https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1594109941295370241?t=vFDFhbRtfPZ2H8w87KS2dg&s=19 https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1594118713619484672?t=8NqquAM-xZ61-Ccu7JcGbw&s=19
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Nov 20, 2022 01:14
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I tried to look up the death toll of the 2019 gas price hike protest. I remember at the time i read an article said it was a few thousands, which made it on par with the 89 China protest and 88, 20 Myanmar protests. But i checked the wiki, it says 300+ by the Iranian side and 1500 by the western side, so I figure the true number is somewhere in between. For the current protests, the death toll is around 300+ from western sources. So I figure it is not as bad as the 19 protests yet. I think about it, this new wave of protests is really the continuation of the 19 protests. In 19 and 20 the protests were stopped by Covid. And Iran was one of the earliest countries that got the plague, right after Italy. I remember there was news of a patient hospital getting torched too. The Iranians really like burning structures to express their feelings.
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Nov 20, 2022 06:22
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mobby_6kl posted:Yeah you'd think they of all people would know that lol, but I guess they just can't stop murdering kids i mean they were murdering kids after the revolutions by spewing psychotic religious horse poo poo and turning them into loving 40k level suicide infantry irregulars in the iran iraq war. Nenonen posted:I wonder if there's any noteworthy motion inside the clergy for reformations to avoid a bloodbath? at this point no. too many dead and probably a ton of regime chuds hosed up or dead too. too much blood spilled for it to be reform now. either regime dies or they kill astronomical amounts of people to buy themselves a decade until their boomer base dies. Herstory Begins Now posted:https://twitter.com/criticalthreats/status/1593419616335937538 yeah, this is gonna get uglier. the regime has lost most of the youth now and probably alot more. the only reason the mullas arnt doing jig from a telephone poll is because they probably have a the military and the guard still. i suspect the military(or portions) may flip if poo poo really kicks off. i dont think the regime has the same streagth as assad though.
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Nov 20, 2022 06:29
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I've been to Iran a couple of times, last in 2014, and it's easily been my favourite place to travel. Unfortunately I don't think we should be too optimistic about any meaningful systemic change in the near future. While there are a lot of protests going on, the numbers probably aren't there for the regime to start seeing them as a genuine challenge to their rule. A friend of mine went around Tehran a couple of days ago after returning to the country briefly from Europe and couldn't find any signs of unrest. She said everything was just going on as normal, so it seems the protests are still quite small and isolated when they occur, with the news and social media coverage perhaps giving an impression that they are much more widespread than they really are. The next problem is with the regime itself. It is virtually insane. Khamenei and the others with power are true believers in their cause and I doubt they will ever voluntarily step aside for the good of the country or because they feel their position is untenable. They are doing god's work and don't care how many they have to murder and how much suffering is caused - the revolution must be protected and they will not give in. The Revolutionary Guard is under the direct command of the Supreme Leader, as is the Basij morality police, so there is a lot of force at Khamenei's disposal. The third problem is the lack of an alternative leader or any kind of replacement government option if the regime does go. I haven't heard any speculation at all about what exactly a plan might be if the protests do prove to be that effective. Quite a few Iranians I met have said they don't want to repeat the mistakes of 1979 and end up swapping one dictator for another who might be even worse. A revolution now doesn't guarantee that what or who comes after will necessarily be better, although it is hard to imagine a worse outcome than the current system. But there would undoubtedly be mass confusion and chaos for some time, and that definitely does not guarantee that a reasonable government with free and fair elections would appear in the power vacuum. I truly wish that all this pessimism will be proven to be completely misguided soon, but at the moment I think it will be a while before we should really get our hopes up. It's certainly not a reason to not support the protestors - it's difficult to see how anything will change without this stuff happening in the first place.
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Nov 20, 2022 14:36
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Dapper_Swindler posted:i mean they were murdering kids after the revolutions by spewing psychotic religious horse poo poo and turning them into loving 40k level suicide infantry irregulars in the iran iraq war. Assad held on due to 1. Outside military help from multiple sources. 2. Being able to divide his population on sectarian grounds and therefore retain loyalty from big chunks of it. Number one is... unlikely? At least from major sources. Like Hezbollah sure, but lol at them being a huge factor in something this big. Russia might have shelled out again or something, but lol, lmao. Number two would be very hard for the regime to pull off unless these protests were largely centered around a minority to begin with. Otherwise this really isn't an option for them.
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Nov 20, 2022 14:56
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For those who are familiar with the country, is it possible for the state to unofficially ease the touchy subjects, for example the head scarf dress code to calm down the unrest? Or do they see it the other way, "give an inch and they will ask for a foot" perspective and will not budge?
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Nov 20, 2022 16:45
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stephenthinkpad posted:For those who are familiar with the country, is it possible for the state to unofficially ease the touchy subjects, for example the head scarf dress code to calm down the unrest? The issue is no longer that there are rules about scarves, it's that authorities are killing protesters left and right and the people are understandably cross about it. And it's really difficult to back down from use of violence because while brutalities have fed anti-regime movement, now it's already a potential revolution levels of protesting.
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Nov 20, 2022 18:39
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Grape posted:Assad held on due to Tempers seem hottest in Mahabad, which is the traditional capital of Kurdish resistance in Iran, but the protests are clearly too broad to portray it as a Kurdish movement. Iran is already trying to play the sectarian card, but I don't think it will work as well as it did in Syria. A lot of the anger in Iranian Kurdistan is based around the same poo poo that young Persians are out protesting about. The largest riots in recent years in Mahabad happened after a girl there committed suicide to escape being raped by an IRGC official, for instance. They're going to have a hard time painting these people as violent Kurdish separatists who are more dangerous than the state.
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Nov 20, 2022 19:03
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Has the Supreme leader thrown a couple moral police mid tier managers to jail first? Just do something to appease part of the crowd.
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Nov 20, 2022 19:44
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Just as easily as we raised that flag we can drop it seems like not a good message to be allowed to be propagating if you're a totalitarian government based on a popular revolution
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Nov 20, 2022 19:53
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Dapper_Swindler posted:i mean they were murdering kids after the revolutions by spewing psychotic religious horse poo poo and turning them into loving 40k level suicide infantry irregulars in the iran iraq war. It looks similar to how Syria got started but I wouldn't assume it will go the same way. At least from people in Iran I talk to the perception is strongly that the IRGC is basically rock solidly in support of the regime and that Syria-style defections will not be a thing. It's possible that is an incorrect analysis, but I'm inclined to think it's largely correct. Iran has ethnic divisions, but much more peripherally so than Syria, which is literally a minority alawi rule over a suuni majority. Iran in contrast is majority rule, albeit over a number of non-trivial, but generally significantly marginalized minority groups. stephenthinkpad posted:Has the Supreme leader thrown a couple moral police mid tier managers to jail first? Just do something to appease part of the crowd. It's way beyond that and that wouldn't begin to be enough. The regime is currently all in on putting the protests down violently through escalating levels of repression. The idea of promising a token reform and people will just go home honestly hasn't really been a thing in this entire wave of protests. people are just done with significant parts of the status quo. Grape posted:Assad held on due to 1 is already happening to some extent and rumors are out there that it is happening to a significant extent. Iran has quite a few groups with relevant experience to call on, most notably SAA, Hez, Iraqi PMFs, and if push comes to shove they have a number of other groups that owe them favors. Significantly, all of those groups have a lot of recent combat experience, and particularly in counter insurgency and shooting some civilians in Iran is pretty much a vacation compared to fighting daesh in Eastern Syria. I wouldn't discount that. On the other hand, I'd expect the heat to turn up in Syria because Shia paramilitaries can only be in so many places at once. 2 I think is less true in Syria actually, it was an Alawi minority + a bunch of Sunnis at war with basically a bunch of other predominately Sunni factions, at least for most of the war. Assad held on far more because of 1. More significantly on 2, and actually in a way that at least according to Iranians seems more directly applicable is that there was a significant campaign of false flag attacks coupled with timely releases of extremist prisoners in order to paint the entire opposition as extremist terrorists... even before that basically became a self-fulfilling thing. Iranians I've talked to who are involved in the protest seem to expect the Iranian government to do something similar. tldr there are a lot of similarities to the situation in syria, but there are also really significant differences between them. still, it is striking just how much this really, really looks like the early days of the Syrian civil war Berg posted:I've been to Iran a couple of times, last in 2014, and it's easily been my favourite place to travel. Unfortunately I don't think we should be too optimistic about any meaningful systemic change in the near future. While there are a lot of protests going on, the numbers probably aren't there for the regime to start seeing them as a genuine challenge to their rule. A friend of mine went around Tehran a couple of days ago after returning to the country briefly from Europe and couldn't find any signs of unrest. She said everything was just going on as normal, so it seems the protests are still quite small and isolated when they occur, with the news and social media coverage perhaps giving an impression that they are much more widespread than they really are. yeah agreed with this. small point that basij are different from the morality police, but otherwise pretty much dead on to my understanding. The lack of any political alternative or even really any effective opposition is a particular key point for why this has skipped the whole 'promise reforms and then don't do poo poo' stage. There's both no real political avenue to pressure for reforms and the supreme council completely does not give a solitary gently caress about implementing reforms to make a bunch of godless urbanites happy. It really looks like there's no resolution to any of this that doesn't involve the people of Iran pretty much completely disassembling the current Iranian regime. Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 23:59 on Nov 20, 2022 |
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Nov 20, 2022 23:25
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Seems like things are escalating https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1594457146137415681?t=Ibgjxyaiqhp7n859nd7Qyw&s=19
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Nov 20, 2022 23:48
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organized armed insurgency is the only way forward
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Nov 21, 2022 02:41
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The Kurdish Led communist revolution of Iran? You Know turkey will get involved if this becomes a real shooting war between the Kurds and the IRGC.
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Nov 21, 2022 04:02
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WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:The Kurdish Led communist revolution of Iran? officially the Kurds don't exist in Turkey
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Nov 21, 2022 04:17
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The Kurds are not getting any break from any country. It would not be good for this protest movement if the regime is turning it into a nationalists vs Kurd minority ethnic conflict.
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Nov 21, 2022 05:19
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stephenthinkpad posted:The Kurds are not getting any break from any country. it is always a nationalists vs Kurd ethnic minority conflict.
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Nov 21, 2022 05:22
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Oh poo poo this mess would end up getting the attention of the U.S. if it gets larger and we could have a repeat of the last two decades. I truly hope the people manage to force the regime out and not fall to another civil war.
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Nov 21, 2022 09:55
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https://twitter.com/m_aslany/status/1593262504360251392?s=20&t=aC94OYPM19I9XV34wwvzFIkkkSxEhpcZyBZNBHV994U
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Nov 21, 2022 15:20
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https://twitter.com/AmichaiStein1/status/1594678140131020806
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Nov 21, 2022 20:59
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Karma Comedian posted:Seems like things are escalating What the gently caress is this about? What does Kurdistan have to do with this at all?
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Nov 30, 2022 02:44
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Toxic Mental posted:What the gently caress is this about? What does Kurdistan have to do with this at all? It's one of the only viable shadow governments that exists in Iran.
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Nov 30, 2022 03:27
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Also, one of the centers of protest has been in the Kurdish area and the Iranian government has been claiming that the Iraqi Kurds have been helping the protestors.
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Nov 30, 2022 05:20
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Gives a good sense of just how pissed off people are at the Iranian government. https://twitter.com/AlinejadMasih/status/1597805116920565760
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Nov 30, 2022 05:22
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