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Fire Storm posted:I do hate click-bait, but when I saw Putin fell down stairs I DID get a little smile on my face. Unfortunately, he survived. Glad the article mentioned that he poo poo himself. That's the pertinent information that we all needed in these trying times.
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Dec 2, 2022 21:35
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cochise posted:Glad the article mentioned that he poo poo himself. That's the pertinent information that we all needed in these trying times. Personally I feel like this is The poo poo That Didn't Happen. The source is some Telegram channel that claims to be run by a former Russian spy that claims to have eyewitness testimony of the event when it happened, which it further claims is proof of Putin's ongoing issue with cancer which again hasn't exactly been confirmed anywhere. The story smells a little too much like Hitler only having one ball - good for propaganda purposes and making the enemy leader look weak, questionable authenticity.
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Dec 2, 2022 21:48
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Tomn posted:Personally I feel like this is The poo poo That Didn't Happen. The source is some Telegram channel that claims to be run by a former Russian spy that claims to have eyewitness testimony of the event when it happened, which it further claims is proof of Putin's ongoing issue with cancer which again hasn't exactly been confirmed anywhere. The story smells a little too much like Hitler only having one ball - good for propaganda purposes and making the enemy leader look weak, questionable authenticity.  Article claiming that Putin has thyroid cancer was more convincing.
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Dec 2, 2022 22:32
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Can't stand Putin health tabloids tbh. He looks his age and has always walked like that.
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Dec 2, 2022 22:36
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 Thread moderation update I've given some extra thought to the quality of posts in the recent weeks, and I have to unfortunately conclude that the thread doesn't handle a news lull too well - an issue further exacerbated by it historically having just a handful of posters regularly posting meaningfully sized news bites. My earlier plan to post regular summaries, which was unceremoniously interrupted by my day job, is the only effective moderation remedy that I'm aware of for this. Unfortunately for everyone, that does come at a larger time investment than I can personally guarantee at all times, and so, for the time being, I'd like to avoid unnecessary surprises and state clearly that, going forward, Clancychat and other "theorycrafting" derail attempts will see lesser benefit of doubt and will earn harsher probations.
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Dec 2, 2022 22:43
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November 30 - December 2 round-up (no Twitter this time, sorry) TV Rain in hot waters in Latvia, after they managed to show live a map where Crimea was marked as Russian, referring to Russia's troops as "our army" and expressing hope for material support for RuAF. So far, they've been fined for 10k and have fired an involved live host, with the security services' investigation otherwise ongoing. https://www.lsm.lv/raksts/zinas/lat...o-sodu.a485193/ Remember Benes Aio, the Latvian nazbol that went to "LNR" ways back? Looks like he's finally a Russian citizen, and our authorities are lookign into taking his Latvian citizenship away. https://www.lsm.lv/raksts/zinas/latvija/pmlp-sakusi-parbaudi-lai-lemtu-par-latvijas-pilsonibas-atnemsanu-benesam-aijo.a484999/ $60 oil "cap" agreed. https://www.ft.com/content/5b942b07-01cc-4e12-b803-7eb1507f6eec https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/02/world/europe/russia-oil-price-cap-explain.html quote:
quote:The U.S. Treasury secretary, Janet L. Yellen, [has described the plan as a price cap](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/22/business/russia-oil-price-cap.html?searchResultPosition=1), but it’s nearly impossible to manipulate the price of a global commodity such as oil. Instead, the plan relies heavily on European dominance of the maritime insurance industry, a web of companies that provide coverage for ships and their cargo, liability for potential spills and reinsurance, a form of secondary insurance used to defray the risk of losses. There are also some discussions about a gas price cap, but they're not going great. https://www.euractiv.com/section/energy/news/brussels-defends-gas-price-cap-proposal-after-criticism-from-eu-countries/ Looks like there's a mail bombs campaign going on against Ukrainian embassies in Europe... and the PM of Spain, and the US embassy in Spain. https://www.ft.com/content/0a97c51b-cb2b-48e2-85b2-1d93384f53d2 As always, Russia is ready to talk, if Vova gets sucked off and then some. https://www.euractiv.com/section/global-europe/news/russia-presses-unacceptable-demands-for-peace-talks/ Economist did a cool little article, a bit over a week ago, tallying up various conquest stats. https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2022/11/23/vladimir-putin-wants-to-be-a-conqueror  The UN is looking to solicit $51bn to tackle fallout from the war in Ukraine. https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/12/01/world/russia-ukraine-war-news/the-un-seeks-51-5-billion-in-aid-driven-in-part-by-the-war-in-ukraine Some low-stakes political drama in Poland, about their defence minister's attempt to marshal German Patriot systems for Ukraine. https://www.euractiv.com/section/politics/news/opposition-blasts-defense-ministers-u-turn-on-german-patriots-for-poland/ FT did an article on manufacturing logistics for military supplies in the West. https://www.ft.com/content/a781fb71-49bb-4052-ab05-a87386bf3d5e RUSI did a long piece about the early war, including curious bits like how British total stocks are worth about 2 days of peak intensity shelling from Russian army, or a week's worth for the Ukrainian. Or how the Russian plan likely was to conquer Ukraine in 10 days. https://rusi.org/explore-our-resear...ruary-july-2022 VDL apparently went on record on Twitter with an estimate of 100k casualties for UAF. https://www.euractiv.com/section/europe-s-east/news/eu-commission-chief-in-hot-water-over-ukraine-war-loss-estimates/ Paul Whelan was apparently able to call his family, but all of this looks a bit weird. https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/02/world/paul-whelan-russia-prison.html Alleged diary of a Russian construction engineer who got dispatched to Mariupol' for a month this autumn. https://zona.media/article/2022/12/01/mariupol FSB says that people in Moscow are receiving calls, predominantly from Ukraine, from people successfully spoofing phone numbers of the security services, and trying to convince them to take out loans or commit acts of terror. Another fabled "we're that incompetent, actually" story, god bless their writers. https://zona.media/news/2022/12/01/call-center EU is looking into setting up a UN-backed court for investigating Russia's war crimes in Ukraine. https://www.euractiv.com/section/europe-s-east/news/eu-seeks-special-court-to-try-russias-war-crimes-in-ukraine/ Unsurprisingly, human trafficking cases are spiking, as they prey on Ukrainian refugees. https://www.euractiv.com/section/europe-s-east/news/trafficking-and-sexual-exploitation-of-ukrainian-refugees-on-the-rise/ There's an EU proposal to make use of frozen Russian assets for reconstruction of Ukraine, but the legal feasibility is unclear for this, and the proposal would see the assets returned to Russian in the event of a peace agreement. https://www.ft.com/content/a96c3e66-39ab-45d2-a7ff-b6302b1c9284 An article about civilian life under air strikes in Kyiv. https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/30/world/europe/ukraine-kyiv-power.html US running a fundraiser to help Ukraine with energy grid reconstruction costs. https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/30/world/europe/the-us-leads-a-drive-to-help-ukraine-fix-its-electrical-grid.html Starlink seems to be doubling prices on hardware, and giving service subscriptions a bump, in Ukraine. https://www.ft.com/content/f69b75cf-c36a-4ab3-9eb7-ad0aa00d230c Russian oil storage facility on fire, relatively close to the border with Ukraine (straight north of Kyiv). https://censor.net/ru/news/3383874/pojar_na_neftebaze_v_bryanskoyi_oblasti_rf_foto Story from a Russian contract service member not being released despite their contract concluding a month ago. https://zona.media/article/2022/11/30/contract Yandex Maps service seems to be starting to delete Mariupol' buildings marked for demolitions. https://zona.media/chronicle/280#51225 50-on-50 exchange of POWs, including more Azovstal' people. https://t.me/ermaka2022/1706 (Ermak, head of Zelenskyy's administration)
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Dec 2, 2022 22:44
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Tomn posted:Personally I feel like this is The poo poo That Didn't Happen. The source is some Telegram channel that claims to be run by a former Russian spy that claims to have eyewitness testimony of the event when it happened, which it further claims is proof of Putin's ongoing issue with cancer which again hasn't exactly been confirmed anywhere. The story smells a little too much like Hitler only having one ball - good for propaganda purposes and making the enemy leader look weak, questionable authenticity. It def didnt happen However imagine spending twenty years buildiing the biggest disinformation apparatus on the Internet and a single site does the same back to you but makes you a laughing stock. No one will really care it's false, it very funny to think of Putin falling down the stairs and making GBS threads himself
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Dec 2, 2022 22:57
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Fire Storm posted:I do hate click-bait, but when I saw Putin fell down stairs I DID get a little smile on my face. Unfortunately, he survived. Oh, come on. "And he even pooped inside pants, xddd". Thanks NYPost. Saladman posted:Except for Crimea, the Russian government never actually defined what the borders of the four other provinces actually are, did they? I mean I don't think literally anyone would agree give them one square centimeter of Kherson province or Zaporijjia province, and doubt more than a handful of people would even remotely agree to giving them parts of Donetsk and Luhansk, so kind of a moot point. As far as I know, you're correct - the border has yet to be drawn, legally. Tomn posted:On the subject of dramatic one-shot attacks, do we have any word on how the Kerch Bridge is doing right now or if there's any updates about how it happened to begin with? As of November 19, all 4 replacement spans were in pre-installation positions on the bridge. https://newizv.ru/news/society/19-11-2022/rabochie-ustanovili-vse-chetyre-proleta-krymskogo-mosta Otherwise, traffic remains impaired, and it seems that they're so concerned about a follow-up strike, that they're going to keep sending heavier, more difficult to check cargo tracks with the ferry lines even when the car section of the bridge reopens for cargo traffic. A tangential update is that in today's call with Scholz, Putin said that the recent campaign of airstrikes is retaliation for the bridge.
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Dec 2, 2022 22:58
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Adjacent to this, the question of "what is iran getting out this" (aside from a pile of money) and the answer is... https://twitter.com/IranIntl_En/status/1598694521176571904 I'll scratch your terror campaign if you scratch ours.
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Dec 2, 2022 23:15
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Don't know how trustworthy is Iran International but I heard nothing of this. If I am wrong inshallah, let our OMON go there and perish.
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Dec 2, 2022 23:48
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https://twitter.com/JohnJac49044910/status/1598393734965534720?s=20&t=rmv8bhIUwaCz5oGwMW-bTg I'm assuming keeping tabs on Russian influence operations in the rest of Europe is still within the purview of this thread. I'm not a Serbia-watcher, but I came across this in my feed. Serbia seems to continue its pro-Russian course and might head towards further escalations in Kosovo. Edit: OAquinas posted:I'll scratch your terror campaign if you scratch ours. Yeah, this is precisely the kind of multi-polar world Putin has in mind. Instead of the evil US Empire plotting color revolutions everywhere, autocracies worldwide will be able to support each other in putting down their pesky citizens (who have been riled up by CIA agitators.) Hannibal Rex fucked around with this message at 01:05 on Dec 3, 2022 |
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Dec 3, 2022 01:01
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ponzicar posted:Not even remotely true. He's an amateur that presents his opinions as facts, and real military historians hate him. I've seen a few of his medieval related videos over the years and they seemed fine? And his interview with the volunteer also seems fine so far. Please show me where the real military historians make their case against him.
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Dec 3, 2022 01:21
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https://www.ft.com/content/cdef936b-852e-43d8-ae55-33bcbbb82eb6quote:Russia has quietly amassed a fleet of more than 100 ageing tankers to help circumvent western restrictions on Russian oil sales following its invasion of Ukraine, according to shipping brokers and analysts.
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Dec 3, 2022 01:22
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Freakazoid_ posted:I've seen a few of his medieval related videos over the years and they seemed fine? And his interview with the volunteer also seems fine so far. This isn't really the place for that discussion. I suggest checking out our own Military History thread and asking around there.
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Dec 3, 2022 01:53
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Sekenr posted:Don't know how trustworthy is Iran International but I heard nothing of this. If I am wrong inshallah, let our OMON go there and perish. Trustworthy is a complicated term as II is a massive can of worms on its own, but the criticisms of it are generally not wrt factualness. The critiques are that it's a largely opaquely, but at least partly Saudi funded, London-based foreign media organization clearly intended to promote regime change in Iran and it has been significant in, idk how best to word it, amplifying the legitimate grievances of Iranian protestors? They've also publicized a lot of extremely high level hacks of various Iranian ministries and Fars news agency and others and they have by and large been authentic so far as I'm aware. Basically the likelihood of them having info like that is pretty good. It also matches up with Iran largely using the Syria playbook so far for suppressing protests, which are still very much ongoing for anyone not following Iran. Iran has also reportedly reached out to other allies that they're owed favors by for assistance, so it's, again, not unlikely that Russia would be asked. There's also a foreign policy carrot/stick angle to this from several directions that complicates everything. I try to choose my words carefully in describing because afaict there's no reason to believe that the outbreak of protests in Iran was anything other than what it seems like, eg a girl was beaten so badly by Iranian morality police that she died hours later. II's role is just that they're an unjammable foreign satellite news agency that would play and spread protest videos that were sent in by Iranians of outrageous police brutality and protestors successfully fighting back. However, from the perspective of people who see western intelligence agencies behind everything, the timeline of Iran's first delivery of shahed-136 drones to Russia (end of August, roughly eg https://www.politico.com/news/2022/08/30/first-iranian-drones-arrive-russia-00054158 ), to first use ~sep 13th ( https://i.imgur.com/ZXXzaDg.png to what Iran believes to be the massive boosting of unrest following Mahsa's killing days later is hard to miss. Again, I want to be clear that the unrest genuinely is the product of an extreme amount of senseless regime violence (death toll is 400-500) and clearly shifting attitudes within Iran and the role of II has just been to make it harder to suppress. With all that said, it's likely Iran believes that the protests are being externally amplified as a response to arming Russia (among other reasons, too). And to some extent that they're right that they're being amplified, II has some Saudi funding but is based out of London and is actively being physically protected by the British. Of particular note here: for whatever combination of reasons the supply of Shahed-136 drones has dried up for most of November with I believe none reported used for nearly 3 weeks now. TLDR, II probably has good information as they're certainly well sourced both in and out of Iran. Still, they exist primarily for messaging so absolutely wait and see until someone more reputable picks it up. Russia has recently stepped up their involvement in Syria again to counter Turkey's ambitions and Russia diverting some resources to Iran would not be surprising in the least, particularly if it gets vital Iranian assistance flowing again. Sorry for the weird derail into II, it's a genuinely weird situation and everything around Iran and Syria right now is a huge multi-national foreign policy clusterfuck. Btw this (https://www.iranintl.com/202212022167 ) is the actual article referenced by the tweet, which cites leaked information albeit with a fair bit of detail about its provenance, as well as citing an earlier white house briefing on likely Russian support for Iranian efforts to put down the demonstrations (article from reuters on the referenced statements https://www.reuters.com/world/white-house-concerned-moscow-may-be-advising-iran-best-practices-manage-protests-2022-10-26/ )
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Dec 3, 2022 01:57
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apologies in advance to anyone who made it through that wall of text
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Dec 3, 2022 02:15
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Freakazoid_ posted:I've seen a few of his medieval related videos over the years and they seemed fine? And his interview with the volunteer also seems fine so far. Yeah, he seems fine. Maybe not a destination for 100% accuracy but for the occasional anecdote he's ok. Quirky but fine.
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Dec 3, 2022 02:19
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Herstory Begins Now posted:apologies in advance to anyone who made it through that wall of text You shouldn't be, that's the kind of stuff we should all be aspiring to!
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Dec 3, 2022 03:31
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cinci zoo sniper posted:https://www.ft.com/content/cdef936b-852e-43d8-ae55-33bcbbb82eb6 I bet Zelensky could find a few adventurous souls who would be willing to accept letters of marque. Just saying.
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Dec 3, 2022 05:34
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Freakazoid_ posted:I've seen a few of his medieval related videos over the years and they seemed fine? And his interview with the volunteer also seems fine so far. he's a climate change denier and a massive idiot in other ways too go post your apologia elsewhere
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Dec 3, 2022 12:35
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cochise posted:Glad the article mentioned that he poo poo himself. That's the pertinent information that we all needed in these trying times. I guess we need a new set of stamps from Ukraine. Russian president, go poo poo yourself. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Dec 3, 2022 13:44
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ChubbyChecker posted:he's a climate change denier and a massive idiot in other ways too This is not the thread to hash out sex life of random YouTubers.
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Dec 3, 2022 14:13
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notwithoutmyanus posted:I guess we need a new set of stamps from Ukraine. lol E: I was laughing at Putin making GBS threads himself, not the dumb probe. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Dec 3, 2022 14:31
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RoyKeen posted:lol I am laughing at both sorry Cinci, hit me  (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Dec 3, 2022 15:59
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A big flaming stink posted:https://twitter.com/WSJ/status/1598682166241759233?t=hzfsvU3ayLj_NMLjT31AXg&s=19 That NYT headline is loving horrendous lol.
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Dec 3, 2022 17:18
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Grape posted:That NYT headline is loving horrendous lol. Isn't WSJ still in the "We need a quick end to the war no matter what it costs to Ukraine"-group, basically strongly favoring Putinist rhetoric?
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Dec 3, 2022 17:43
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Der Kyhe posted:Isn't WSJ still in the "We need a quick end to the war no matter what it costs to Ukraine"-group, basically strongly favoring Putinist rhetoric? Not really, and haven't really been, unless you are one of those people who confuse opinion columns for institutional policy. Hell, their lead correspondent on this is a generic Ukrainian dude.
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Dec 3, 2022 18:03
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This is from a THW press release thrown through machine translation:quote:470 power generators of different power classes with a total value of around 19.5 million euros are being provided to Ukraine by the Federal Agency for Technical Relief (THW). THW has already delivered some of the new generators, which were financed with funds from THW and the Federal Foreign Office (AA), to Ukraine. The transports for further equipment are currently being planned. 70 additional power generators will be handed over to the Republic of Moldova. "The power supply represents an important point in the Critical Infrastructure of every country. That is why it is even more important that we can make an important contribution to supplying the population in Ukraine with the deliveries of the power generators," explains THW President Gerd Friedsam. 1000 kVA is nothing to sneeze at. That's a small hospital worth of electricity.
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Dec 3, 2022 19:16
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Not really, and haven't really been, unless you are one of those people who confuse opinion columns for institutional policy. Hell, their lead correspondent on this is a generic Ukrainian dude. There is an argument to be made that no opinion column goes published without some chief editor green lighting it, but I otherwise don't have anything substantial so I am not going to press this any further.
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Dec 3, 2022 19:39
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Der Kyhe posted:There is an argument to be made that no opinion column goes published without some chief editor green lighting it, but I otherwise don't have anything substantial so I am not going to press this any further. It's usually a weak argument, thanks for the parting shot. To avoid ambiguity, this isn't an invitation to respond further.
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Dec 3, 2022 20:05
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thanks kals, and everyone else who has posted aggregated updates. i've always found them very helpful, it feels like seeing everything together provides additional context
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Dec 3, 2022 20:22
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Ukraine Calls for Evacuations From a Russian-Controlled Area, Signaling a New Offensivequote:Less than a month after driving Russian forces from the city of Kherson on the west bank of the Dnipro River, the Ukrainian authorities on Saturday issued an urgent call for civilians to evacuate Russian-occupied areas on the eastern bank, suggesting that Kyiv’s military might press its offensive and try to establish a foothold across the waterway.
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Dec 3, 2022 23:24
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Huh, so Russia is concentrating so hard on Bakhmut they'll open themselves up to failure on another front, yet again? Seems like as soon as the ground freezes enough for major operations, Russia will get another asskicking. Also  at local Russian occupiers viewing their own forces' chances so low they are already fleeing
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Dec 3, 2022 23:35
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It could also mean there's going to be a mighty artillery duel to protect Kherson and people better get out of the way, or forcing Russians to keep enough reserves in the area that they won't get surprised, or both.
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Dec 4, 2022 00:57
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Libluini posted:Huh, so Russia is concentrating so hard on Bakhmut they'll open themselves up to failure on another front, yet again? I'm not sure it's that easy, but events on the ground should speed up in a few weeks, since it remains a notch too muddy in the popular areas. P66 is the place to watch for now, more and more Russian “war correspondents” are experiencing “unease” or marking parts of it as “grey zone”.  The red line is what's being pushed basically since the end of Kharkiv offensive. If UAF takes it, the next major road network is the blue one, and if that falls, the green. If they can reach the “Wagner line” (roughly perpendicular to the green part), they'll have liberated half of Luhansk oblast'. Though that would really suck to hold, for a time, with 3 fronts to watch.
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Dec 4, 2022 01:04
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Nenonen posted:It could also mean there's going to be a mighty artillery duel to protect Kherson and people better get out of the way, or forcing Russians to keep enough reserves in the area that they won't get surprised, or both. i'm a bit doubtful that russia is able to easily support a prolonged artillery duel while the kerch bridge still has limited capacity. i don't have the numbers on current daily trains to back that up, but it seems like you wouldn't want to stress the major southern military and civilian supply corridor while it's still limited if you don't have to
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Dec 4, 2022 01:18
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cinci zoo sniper posted:I'm not sure it's that easy, but events on the ground should speed up in a few weeks, since it remains a notch too muddy in the popular areas. P66 is the place to watch for now, more and more Russian “war correspondents” are experiencing “unease” or marking parts of it as “grey zone”. If UAF manage to retake Severodonetsk/Lysychansk, more or less all Russian gains since March would have been reversed (not counting Mariupol, being surrounded before then).
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Dec 4, 2022 01:28
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Assorted tweets: Remember that corny “move to Russia, winter is coming!” Propaganda movie that somehow implied Spain is a worse place to spend winter in than Russia? Awful poo poo, and they’re self-inflicting it.
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Dec 4, 2022 01:37
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GhostofJohnMuir posted:i'm a bit doubtful that russia is able to easily support a prolonged artillery duel while the kerch bridge still has limited capacity. i don't have the numbers on current daily trains to back that up, but it seems like you wouldn't want to stress the major southern military and civilian supply corridor while it's still limited if you don't have to They sustained a 2-month long defense of Kherson City and adjacent areas using artillery to break up Ukrainian attacks and were supplied along those same lines of communications except they had in some cases up to 2 additional water crossings to make to supply some units. They will do just fine.
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Dec 4, 2022 01:57
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