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FistEnergy posted:without knowing the manufacturer/model specifics, I can say from experience that a lot of major equipment and specialty substation parts that used to take 3 or 6 months to locate, purchase, and deliver now take 9 or 12 or 18 months in some cases. Is this due to the regular supply chain issues post-COVID or is it something more systemic like a lack of manufacturing of said parts?
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Dec 5, 2022 03:17
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I remember a long time ago in the wake of 9/11 thinking that the next major terrorist attack wouldn't be physically violent in nature like NYC was and that it would target infrastructure. Water, power, banks, internet, food... Not a novel or original thought, I realize, but whatever this thing is in NC reminded me of it.
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Dec 5, 2022 03:19
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FistEnergy posted:without knowing the manufacturer/model specifics, I can say from experience that a lot of major equipment and specialty substation parts that used to take 3 or 6 months to locate, purchase, and deliver now take 9 or 12 or 18 months in some cases. All the things you are saying are very troubling and I am very interested in you elaborating.
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Dec 5, 2022 03:20
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Angry_Ed posted:Is this due to the regular supply chain issues post-COVID or is it something more systemic like a lack of manufacturing of said parts? The lead times on the big 500kV or higher transformers were 12 months back in 2015. My understanding is they're built to order and there aren't spares just sitting around. e: hell, basic large building size transformers are like a year out still. I can't imagine things haven't gotten that much worse for the big boys at high voltage substations.
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Dec 5, 2022 03:20
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Most utilities have a reserve of medium voltage transformers in stock (afaik it’s much rarer to keep all too many HV xfmrs handy). Like enough to deal with a year of bad fail rates due to age/weather, not really considering domestic terrorism. if these kinds of attacks become commonplace poo poo will get dire fast, especially if nonstandard or poorly documented equipment is compromised
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Dec 5, 2022 03:25
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They’re very heavy too. I’ve done transformer loads and discharges that are 70, 80, 150, 200+ MT (MT). That’s special cranes, special rail cars, special trucking, or even weight distribution on vessel decks with steel beams on that heavier end. There is also huge demand. Renewables need transformers. Until recently crypto outfits were buying then too.
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Dec 5, 2022 03:28
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Angry_Ed posted:Is this due to the regular supply chain issues post-COVID or is it something more systemic like a lack of manufacturing of said parts? supply chain issues like a lot of other stuff, with really long delays from manufacturers in Asia. To make things harder, a lot of the replacement parts you need are for major equipment that is 50-75 years old and the parts aren't made anymore, or the original manufacturer went out of business, or the parts are only made by niche specialists with long lead times to begin with, or the specific part rating/features chosen for the substation/grid is especially rare or in high demand, etc. It's been a very tough year for power companies all over America.
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Dec 5, 2022 03:30
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Anything serious heavy mechanical is having similar delays. Basically since the pandemic started. Staff, parts, transportation it’s still pretty hosed.
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Dec 5, 2022 03:34
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Google Jeb Bush posted:All the things you are saying are very troubling and I am very interested in you elaborating. For older/rarer pieces of equipment, especially protective relays or legacy communication equipment, going to ebay or other power companies out of desperation can happen. I get calls from other power companies sometimes because they're looking for stuff they hope is sitting in a warehouse or substation collecting dust and mouse nests. I regularly have to reach out to niche manufacturers and supply houses around the country to find what I need, and if I find it I usually have to agree to a price quote that I know is robbery because the alternative is extending an outage or delaying a project which makes everything else on my list harder. I have 6 or 8 major equipment outages right now that have been offline for 3+ months and I thought they'd all be repaired/replaced by now. I hope 2023 is better!
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Dec 5, 2022 03:53
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So the press conference said they found no evidence or reason the attack was related to the drag show (could be true or could be they don’t want to let the people who did this know they’re on their track) but they did say this was a very deliberate attack and the stations that were targeted were targeted to inflicted the most damage to the power grid, that the people who did this “knew exactly what they were doing” so maybe I’m cynical but I’m hard pressed to find a reason for an attack to be planned in such a random county and happened to coincide with the same date and time as a drag show the chuds had whipped themselves into a frenzy over
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Dec 5, 2022 03:56
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brugroffil posted:The lead times on the big 500kV or higher transformers were 12 months back in 2015. My understanding is they're built to order and there aren't spares just sitting around. 12 months is more like 18-24 months now for high voltage transmission transformers. But since they're usually built to order like you said, it's usually not a big deal to wait longer for a single unit. Constantly encountering 2-6 month delays for common replacements that used to take 1-4 weeks to order+deliver is a much bigger deal and has wrecked my scheduling constantly this year. Bushings, potential/current transformers, relays, etc.
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Dec 5, 2022 03:59
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Don’t expect it to get better btw, even as the container liners are normalizing with rates and schedules again. No one is staffed adequately. The worse the work the less adequately staffed. It’s the same feed back loop the rail staffing has going on.
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Dec 5, 2022 04:46
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so youre saying the solution is to offer the rich to the pale green glow?
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Dec 5, 2022 05:51
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PhazonLink posted:so youre saying the solution is to offer the rich to the pale green glow?  works for me.
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Dec 5, 2022 07:04
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Dr. VooDoo posted:So the press conference said they found no evidence or reason the attack was related to the drag show (could be true or could be they don’t want to let the people who did this know they’re on their track) but they did say this was a very deliberate attack and the stations that were targeted were targeted to inflicted the most damage to the power grid, that the people who did this “knew exactly what they were doing” so maybe I’m cynical but I’m hard pressed to find a reason for an attack to be planned in such a random county and happened to coincide with the same date and time as a drag show the chuds had whipped themselves into a frenzy over Maybe it’s just a sign of senility sneaking in and I’m falling into the Cold War paranoia of my youth, but I do recall an investigative journalism piece from a few years back on how Russian diplomats had been roaming the country documenting the power grid. They’ve definitely been mapping it for at least a decade via hacking, and much further back with good old-fashioned satellites, spywork and just plain buying US copies of maps. So how does Russia launch an attack on US soil and maintain plausible deniability? Easy: stir up the heavily armed paranoid bigoted rubes with LGBT horror stories, give them detailed instructions of what to hit where and when, and sit back and watch the chaos unfold. Why would they do this? And why now? Ukraine war is costing them, this is a nice way of saying ‘gee that’s a nice grid you got there, be terrible if anything were to happen to it. Maybe you should see to that insurrection at home instead of supporting one abroad. They could do a lot of damage with the right information.’ And as others have pointed out those pieces aren’t cheap or easy to obtain in a hurry, and if we have to choose between sending them to Ukraine to fix what Russia is blowing up or fixing our own grid, we’re going to choose the latter. But like I said, I’m probably just being paranoid.
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Dec 5, 2022 07:28
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Bar Ran Dun posted:They’re very heavy too. I’ve done transformer loads and discharges that are 70, 80, 150, 200+ MT (MT). Megateslas?
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Dec 5, 2022 08:48
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Nenonen posted:Megateslas? Guessing “metric tons”
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Dec 5, 2022 08:52
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Oracle posted:Maybe it’s just a sign of senility sneaking in and I’m falling into the Cold War paranoia of my youth, but I do recall an investigative journalism piece from a few years back on how Russian diplomats had been roaming the country documenting the power grid. Would be lol that the real Russian plots are just piggybacking off the entirely locally generated stochastic terrorism.
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Dec 5, 2022 09:21
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FCKGW posted:There was one person who said “I know why but I’m not saying” and when the cops talked to her she was your average evangelical nutter and was rambling about gods will punishing all don't get distracted by what the police say, she's actually connected to domestic terrorism: https://twitter.com/JimLaPorta/status/1599527421405171712
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Dec 5, 2022 11:28
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drat, why is she free?
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Dec 5, 2022 13:50
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Automata 10 Pack posted:drat, why is she free? Going to the insurrection isn't enough to do anything unless there's evidence you broke into the Capital building. So without evidence, she just organized a bunch of citizens to go hear the President speak, maybe with a side of lawful protest that stayed one foot away from any barriers.
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Dec 5, 2022 14:15
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Also, you know, for her to not be free there has to be a single cop or judge that disagrees with her motives or methods and well, not sure if you've cracked a newspaper in the last few years.
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Dec 5, 2022 14:28
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I think deciding that American homegrown political movements like BLM or right wing anti-trans stuff is somehow tied to Russia is about as silly as it gets, and also tied to toxic, racist or toxically pollyannaish ideas about what “outside agitators” are up to. It’s a classic way to say there aren’t actually real political conflicts, just external enemies, and while I’m not surprised to see it in more generalist political discussions I’m always disappointed in the lack of imagination and agency it credits our fellow Americans with, for good or ill. Or more succinctly, https://www.theonion.com/fbi-uncovers-al-qaeda-plot-to-just-sit-back-and-enjoy-c-1819576375
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Dec 5, 2022 15:09
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BiggerBoat posted:I remember a long time ago in the wake of 9/11 thinking that the next major terrorist attack wouldn't be physically violent in nature like NYC was and that it would target infrastructure. Water, power, banks, internet, food... https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2014/02/05/272015606/sniper-attack-on-calif-power-station-raises-terrorism-fears This is pretty famous is prepper circles, almost ten years later I've never heard of a single suspect for it
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Dec 5, 2022 15:16
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Goa Tse-tung posted:don't get distracted by what the police say, she's actually connected to domestic terrorism: But the only thing linking her to these attacks is a Facebook post saying she knows why when her “why” is “god is punishing us”
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Dec 5, 2022 15:28
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FCKGW posted:But the only thing linking her to these attacks is a Facebook post saying she knows why when her “why” is “god is punishing us” making her a suspect, she should be investigated not let go after a prayer!
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Dec 5, 2022 15:43
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I think the police should talk to the God fellow, sounds like He might know something.
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Dec 5, 2022 15:45
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Dr. VooDoo posted:So the press conference said they found no evidence or reason the attack was related to the drag show (could be true or could be they don’t want to let the people who did this know they’re on their track) but they did say this was a very deliberate attack and the stations that were targeted were targeted to inflicted the most damage to the power grid, that the people who did this “knew exactly what they were doing” so maybe I’m cynical but I’m hard pressed to find a reason for an attack to be planned in such a random county and happened to coincide with the same date and time as a drag show the chuds had whipped themselves into a frenzy over Unless I've missed something, the only connection to the drag show was some crazy Twitter person reposting a photo of the venue with a snarky caption. Until more information comes out, I'm defaulting to assuming this was a bunch of idiots who decided plunging two counties into darkness would be a fun way to spend a Saturday night. "Targeted to inflict maximum damage" just sounds like power company bluster to explain why 40,000 people can lose power at the cost of a few dollars of ammunition.
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Dec 5, 2022 15:46
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cat botherer posted:I think the police should talk to the God fellow, sounds like He might know something. Kinda tough since he's everywhere.
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Dec 5, 2022 15:47
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Oracle posted:Maybe it’s just a sign of senility sneaking in and I’m falling into the Cold War paranoia of my youth, but I do recall an investigative journalism piece from a few years back on how Russian diplomats had been roaming the country documenting the power grid. Maybe paranoid but I like the narrative, lol. This is how I'm going to frame things with my tinfoily relatives.
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Dec 5, 2022 15:52
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selec posted:I think deciding that American homegrown political movements like BLM or right wing anti-trans stuff is somehow tied to Russia is about as silly as it gets, and also tied to toxic, racist or toxically pollyannaish ideas about what “outside agitators” are up to. It’s a classic way to say there aren’t actually real political conflicts, just external enemies, and while I’m not surprised to see it in more generalist political discussions I’m always disappointed in the lack of imagination and agency it credits our fellow Americans with, for good or ill. ...except for all the times it was? And noone is doubting the existence of 'real political conflicts.' Just because there's a bunch of tinder lying around doesn't mean your enemies aren't going to start lighting matches and tossing them in to see what ignites. Both can be true.
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Dec 5, 2022 15:54
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Oracle posted:...except for all the times it was? And noone is doubting the existence of 'real political conflicts.' Just because there's a bunch of tinder lying around doesn't mean your enemies aren't going to start lighting matches and tossing them in to see what ignites. Both can be true.  " should not be a hypothesis anyone defaults to, both because it probably isn't correct, and it conveniently excuses those actually responsible.
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Dec 5, 2022 16:08
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cat botherer posted:The amount of nefarious Russian political manipulation is miniscule compared to good-old-fashioned manipulation by the American capitalist class. "Russians!! Who does it excuse?
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Dec 5, 2022 16:20
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DeadlyMuffin posted:Who does it excuse? Whipping up fear of some external enemy is pretty much manipulation 101. It deflects, and also increases in-group identity. It's really the oldest trick in the book. Bush did it after 9/11, the RW media is doing it with LGBT people, etc. The Russia stuff is big for MSNBC for ratings. It is also good for the Democrats. They can blame Russia for their failings and motivate their base by fear, as opposed motivating their base by pursuing policies that would make this country a better place (but conflict with donor's interests). For slightly different reasons, the MIC also just loves stoking up fear of foreign others.
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Dec 5, 2022 16:25
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cat botherer posted:*Gestures broadly to surroundings* The reason I asked is because two things can be true at the same time: Russia makes an effort to undermine faith in democracy and promote certain candidates and causes towards that end, and homegrown American fascists and bigots are doing their thing, and supporting many of the same people and causes. I think the fact that you can't actually point to something specific is telling.
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Dec 5, 2022 16:30
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DeadlyMuffin posted:The reason I asked is because two things can be true at the same time: Russia makes an effort to undermine faith in democracy and promote certain candidates and causes towards that end, and homegrown American fascists and bigots are doing their thing.
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Dec 5, 2022 16:33
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cat botherer posted:Yeah, it's not black and white. Russia does interfere in our politics (the same is true of the US in other countries, but moreso). However, the effort and effect is small, so it makes no sense to fixate on it, or immediately jump to "a bad politics thing happened, so it was the Russians." There is no reason to believe the Russians had anything to do with some chuds shooting up a couple of substations. I disagree that the effect is small. Things like hacking the DNC have a large effect. I missed where someone said the Russians had something to do with shooting substations.
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Dec 5, 2022 16:36
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cat botherer posted:Yeah, it's not black and white. Russia does interfere in our politics (the same is true of the US in other countries, but moreso). However, the effort and effect is small, so it makes no sense to fixate on it, or immediately jump to "a bad politics thing happened, so it was the Russians." There is no reason to believe the Russians had anything to do with some chuds shooting up a couple of substations. I agree with you that it's very unlikely Russia is behind this. But if by your own admission "Russia does interfere in our politics," why is there no reason to believe Russia would be behind it? Seems naive to entirely dismiss the possible role a malign state actor with known ill intentions could have, for this circumstance or any other. And the fact that the U.S. does this in other countries is totally irrelevant to this conversation except with discussing possible reprisal by states we have acted upon.
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Dec 5, 2022 16:38
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DeadlyMuffin posted:I disagree that the effect is small. Things like hacking the DNC have a large effect. Oracle posted:Maybe it’s just a sign of senility sneaking in and I’m falling into the Cold War paranoia of my youth, but I do recall an investigative journalism piece from a few years back on how Russian diplomats had been roaming the country documenting the power grid. edit: Let me narrow down what I'm really saying. Russian interference in elections should be taken seriously. Nonetheless, it is a much smaller threat to our democracy compared to the coverage it gets in the media. Much bigger threats are domestic ones, like billionaires manipulating our elections, or stochastic terrorism by chuds (formented by the same capitalist interests). cat botherer fucked around with this message at 16:50 on Dec 5, 2022 |
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Dec 5, 2022 16:41
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Going full Clancy on an incident that is so so so much better explained from top to bottom as domestic right wing terrorism is basically no different from simply calling it a false flag operation. It also theory crafts away the focus from the very serious and real stochastic terrorism that's getting done by extremist conservatives right now. Also, why do you think it's Russia in particular, and not china Venezuela north korea, or any other external actor? "Has been shown to meddle" and "hates us" is too thin to narrow. Especially when there is much better evidence already that it's a locally organized attack (Jan 6 associations, those emails, the initial charging documents, etc etc.)
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Dec 5, 2022 16:53
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