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Levitate posted:I'd have to wonder if the Democratic Party would rather take the risk of a split ticket and losing the seat than deal with her for another term. I doubt they like to be "blackmailed" like this and by someone who's already shown they won't support the party's agenda. Might come down to what control of the senate looks like. If it's a question of 46, or 47 dem seats and not a question of 49 or 50, they might just let her fail.
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Dec 9, 2022 16:59
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Levitate posted:I'd have to wonder if the Democratic Party would rather take the risk of a split ticket and losing the seat than deal with her for another term. I doubt they like to be "blackmailed" like this and by someone who's already shown they won't support the party's agenda. Pretty sure they already had a primary opponent lined up likely to beat her in a landslide, last I heard everyone who voted for her does indeed despise her. skylined! posted:I think her timing was wrong on this play. This gives AZ Dems a full 2 years to just double-barrel blast her to poo poo, with interview clips she herself is generating, instead of scrambling 6 months out from election day to convince the electorate that she sucks. Oh yeah, she's already a pariah now, imagine after 2 years of full-throttle hatred from all factions of the party.
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Dec 9, 2022 17:03
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Thinking she can Joe Lieberman herself to the presidency is some real galaxy brain thinking, I've gotta say.
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Dec 9, 2022 17:07
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I don’t she how she would win an election anyway in 2024 if they left her alone. She’d likely be blown out by whoever the GOP puts out
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Dec 9, 2022 17:09
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rscott posted:Thinking she can Joe Lieberman herself to the presidency is some real galaxy brain thinking, I've gotta say. According to her former staff in the interviews she did last year, the logic is: People said that being a crazy green party member who wore a tutu to her events wouldn't be good for getting elected to the state government, then people told her that going from green party tutu-wearer to blue dog Dem to run for the House in a reddish district wouldn't look good, then people told her that running for Senate in Arizona as a bisexual fiscal conservative/social liberal without much experience wasn't a good idea. But, she won all of those races. So, following her gut over what other people think has worked so far. Also, people said Lieberman and McCain were committing career suicide by making public stances against their parties, but they both were re-elected. People are desperate for someone who annoys both sides, works to get stuff done, and is independent.
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Dec 9, 2022 17:12
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:People are desperate for someone who annoys both sides, works to get stuff done, and is independent. 2 outta 3 ain't bad. Also, comedy option: Sinema acts as a spoiler for the GOP in 2024.
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Dec 9, 2022 17:15
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Agents are GO! posted:2 outta 3 ain't bad. Trump vs Sinema is a very let them fight moment. Though I have a feeling he'd destroy her.
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Dec 9, 2022 17:20
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Ghost Leviathan posted:Trump vs Sinema is a very let them fight moment. Though I have a feeling he'd destroy her. I meant for the senate seat in Arizona. Dems run somebody else, Sinema runs as an independent but ends up siphoning more GOP votes than Dem, dem wins.
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Dec 9, 2022 17:25
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They should do everything they can to piss her off. Take away committee assignments, poo poo talk in the press, everything. Call her out, and hopefully make her caucus with the GOP.
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Dec 9, 2022 17:30
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Agents are GO! posted:2 outta 3 ain't bad. This, they should call her bluff, kick her out, and attach her to the GOP. They’ve got two years to do it too. They won’t though.
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Dec 9, 2022 17:31
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skylined! posted:Might come down to what control of the senate looks like. If it's a question of 46, or 47 dem seats and not a question of 49 or 50, they might just let her fail. The 2024 senate is all but assured to go to the republicans by multiple seats from what I’ve read so I imagine the democratic party will be more than happy to endorse a challenger.
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Dec 9, 2022 17:33
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One of the things to consider is that the people doing election math are generally talking out of their asses right now. Everyone seemed to know that the Dems would lose the Senate and yet here we are. Now they're talking about how they'll again lose the Senate. Fun thing about having people reach voting age that have gone through two once-in-a-century events is that all the classical thinking goes out the window.
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Dec 9, 2022 17:38
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Robviously posted:One of the things to consider is that the people doing election math are generally talking out of their asses right now. Everyone seemed to know that the Dems would lose the Senate and yet here we are. Now they're talking about how they'll again lose the Senate. Fun thing about having people reach voting age that have gone through two once-in-a-century events is that all the classical thinking goes out the window. I think the consensus forecast for most of the cycle was that the dems had a good shot at holding the senate given the favorable map and would lose the house.
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Dec 9, 2022 17:39
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:According to her former staff in the interviews she did last year, the logic is: People said that being a crazy green party member who wore a tutu to her events wouldn't be good for getting elected to the state government, then people told her that going from green party tutu-wearer to blue dog Dem to run for the House in a reddish district wouldn't look good, then people told her that running for Senate in Arizona as a bisexual fiscal conservative/social liberal without much experience wasn't a good idea. Neither McCann nor Lieberman were first term Senators though, and their public stances against their party arguably prevented them from being president/vice president respectively
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Dec 9, 2022 17:42
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rscott posted:Neither McCann nor Lieberman were first term Senators though, and their public stances against their party arguably prevented them from being president/vice president respectively Yeah, I'm not making that argument. That was just what staff said was her argument in late 2021.
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Dec 9, 2022 17:48
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Levitate posted:I'd have to wonder if the Democratic Party would rather take the risk of a split ticket and losing the seat than deal with her for another term. I doubt they like to be "blackmailed" like this and by someone who's already shown they won't support the party's agenda. Depends a lot on what happens in the next two years. How cooperative she is in the Senate, how popular she is in Arizona, whether any serious competitors for the seat emerge in the next couple of years, how many seats the Dems are likely to gain or lose in 2024, and so on. My guess is that the national Dems are unlikely to seriously oppose her in the general, unless the Senate margin is so wide as to make her seat inconsequential, or a seriously popular Dem challenger rises up with a good chance of winning despite the split ticket. As frustrating as Sinema is, handing over her seat to someone like Martha McSally would be way worse.
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Dec 9, 2022 17:55
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plogo posted:I think the consensus forecast for most of the cycle was that the dems had a good shot at holding the senate given the favorable map and would lose the house. I think the results we got were kinda in line with a lot of predictions. Democrats did better than polling suggested, but there was a lot of analysis bringing up Democratic motivation and poor Republican candidate quality too. The "Red wave coming, bigger than 2010!" people (both gleeful and panicky flavors) were flat out wrong either way though.
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Dec 9, 2022 18:05
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Main Paineframe posted:My guess is that the national Dems are unlikely to seriously oppose her in the general, unless the Senate margin is so wide as to make her seat inconsequential, or a seriously popular Dem challenger rises up with a good chance of winning despite the split ticket. As frustrating as Sinema is, handing over her seat to someone like Martha McSally would be way worse. I don't think the national Dems are going to get to have a say in this. The reason why Sinema is doing this is that the state Dems have been not-so-subtly telling her over the past two years that they hate her, she's going to get primaried out, and they are already lining up behind their guy Gallego. She had the opportunity earlier this year to plausibly change course, apologize, and fall back in line but we are now way past that. Even if the DNC tried to tell the AZ Dems that its a bad idea, at this point I think the Arizona Democrats are going to say "gently caress it, we're getting rid of her one way or another". The swift condemnation from the state party and the public statement by Gallego is pretty much telling her that she is not going to get a Bernie Sanders or Angus King type of agreement with them.
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Dec 9, 2022 18:10
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Is she popular at home? My impression is that, at least with her former party, staff and so on that she's immensely unpopular. Does Arizona just love independents by dint of how many they have registered?
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Dec 9, 2022 18:13
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https://twitter.com/moreperfectus/status/1601260245342629889?s=46&t=g-r1bUm8OGsCPkjEAoAujQ It’s the money! She’s not stupid, it’s just that the fix is in. She’s gonna get a big payoff no matter the electoral outcome. Follow the money, and the whys become very clear.
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Dec 9, 2022 18:15
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Dr. Red Ranger posted:Is she popular at home? My impression is that, at least with her former party, staff and so on that she's immensely unpopular. Does Arizona just love independents by dint of how many they have registered? Not really. She was at basically 30% approval among Republicans, Democrats, and Independents. Many of those Republicans who approve aren't going to vote for her and being at 30% in your own party is pretty dire. And she's not exactly crushing independents. 30% is pretty bad, but it's also not universally hated either.
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Dec 9, 2022 18:15
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I wonder how many points her approval rating has changed since shebwas getting chased into ASU bathrooms and yelled at. If she's Even Less Popular Than That, they may not even have to thumb the scale that hard.
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Dec 9, 2022 18:19
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Her running is going to test the "Both sides are too extreme!" mantra we hear from people (dumb people). If she siphons Republican support, great then there are a bunch of Rs that hate the current party but if she gets a bunch of Democratic support and the Republicans vote in lock step, we have LITERAL proof of what we know.
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Dec 9, 2022 18:21
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The other dumb thing about this move is that it would have made a little sense if she did it after Mark Kelly pursued the opposite strategy of her and then went down hard in his election. Instead, Kelly said a lot of stuff about working together and emphasized his personal story and what a nice guy he is, while voting almost the exact same as Ed Markey. And he cruised to re-election. This is pretty clearly a desperation move to make sure she is on the ballot in 2024 because it was the better option vs. taking a risk in the primary she was likely to lose.
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Dec 9, 2022 18:23
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Mooseontheloose posted:Her running is going to test the "Both sides are too extreme!" mantra we hear from people (dumb people). If she siphons Republican support, great then there are a bunch of Rs that hate the current party but if she gets a bunch of Democratic support and the Republicans vote in lock step, we have LITERAL proof of what we know. A lot of it is going to depend on who the GOP nominates. We are going to need to hope for some crazyman (or crazywoman) far right wing poo poo to win the nomination. If they nominate a smiling, harmless, well-spoken standard Republican and Sinema insists on running 3rd party, then we may be screwed.
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Dec 9, 2022 18:29
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Rigel posted:A lot of it is going to depend on who the GOP nominates. We are going to need to hope for some crazyman (or crazywoman) far right wing poo poo to win the nomination. If they nominate a smiling, harmless, well-spoken standard Republican and Sinema insists on running 3rd party, then we may be screwed. It's going to be Kari Lake, Sinema is going to siphone off like 15% of the R vote and Gallego will coast to victory.
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Dec 9, 2022 18:39
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Is Sinema actually a pariah in the Party? Because it sure seems like she gives a lot of Democrats a lot of cover to support things they don't actually support, knowing that the vote will fail thanks to her and Manchin.
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Dec 9, 2022 18:42
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Halloween Jack posted:Is Sinema actually a pariah in the Party? Because it sure seems like she gives a lot of Democrats a lot of cover to support things they don't actually support, knowing that the vote will fail thanks to her and Manchin. Then why did she switch and why is the Arizona Democrats pissed? Also, the rotating villains thing is not real.
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Dec 9, 2022 18:44
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*straps in for the next six pages*
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Dec 9, 2022 18:45
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Halloween Jack posted:Is Sinema actually a pariah in the Party? Because it sure seems like she gives a lot of Democrats a lot of cover to support things they don't actually support, knowing that the vote will fail thanks to her and Manchin. She is in Arizona, which is all that matters. Manchin is immune to getting primaried (and immune to national pressure) specifically because the WV Dems love him. Sinema failed to ensure that she would win a primary at home, or just carelessly assumed people would calm down over time. They didn't, she now apparently has concluded that she will get primaried, so she's doing.... well whatever she ends up doing. I'm hoping she goes away in 2024 and just accepts whatever bag of money she can get as a lobbyist or something.
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Dec 9, 2022 18:45
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selec posted:https://twitter.com/moreperfectus/status/1601260245342629889?s=46&t=g-r1bUm8OGsCPkjEAoAujQ Yup - it was obvious she’d lose her primary so her monied backers want her to throw the election to the GOP in exchange for $500k a year in board of director salaries for the rest of her life.
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Dec 9, 2022 18:56
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 From September. I can't imagine a candidate that's at negative approval in their own party would win a primary outside of weirdness
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Dec 9, 2022 19:01
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Those approval ratings are ridiculously high. Serious question: who is her base of support, and who among them isn't holding their nose and voting not-a-Republican?
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Dec 9, 2022 19:03
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Can someone please explain to me the Leftist ideological underpinnings of saying a young, black, gay women doesn't deserve any sympathy for being locked in labor camp for a decade over some bullshit weed charges? She's the epitome of a disadvantaged background; a gay black women from a 95%+ minority, 70%+ economically disadvantaged high school. She has managed to acquire wealth principally on the value of her own labor; she doesn't own the any means of production that she's taking the value of other's labor from, she's not part of management, she's a worker. I fail to see how hating workers for retaining the value of their own labor is leftist, even if that value is very high.
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Dec 9, 2022 19:03
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Halloween Jack posted:Those approval ratings are ridiculously high. Serious question: who is her base of support, and who among them isn't holding their nose and voting not-a-Republican? I don't think there is a real base of support for the Sinema of 2020-2022, but the hope is that the 2022-2024 Sinema is able to be its own brand enough to point to as something people want to sign up for the next six years.
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Dec 9, 2022 19:08
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Halloween Jack posted:Those approval ratings are ridiculously high. Serious question: who is her base of support, and who among them isn't holding their nose and voting not-a-Republican? I think you see an approval rating that starts with a 3, its not that its they approve its just that they haven't been really presented an alternative.
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Dec 9, 2022 19:16
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Halloween Jack posted:Those approval ratings are ridiculously high. Serious question: who is her base of support, and who among them isn't holding their nose and voting not-a-Republican? a large part of it is republicans who approve of her causing problems for democrats but wouldn't ever vote for her
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Dec 9, 2022 19:19
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Rigel posted:If this happens, the Dems should say "gently caress you, King and Bernie are both reliable votes and you are a flake", and then try the best they can to support Gallego. (note: this is not the national DNC's call, the Arizona Democratic party will choose to run or not run against her, and right now the local Dems are fired up about replacing Sinema) The biggest problem here is if you drive her to the GOP entirely, you give a different dem senator the ability to REALLY gently caress things up. Like oh I don’t know a dem senator from a red state who’s shown they’re just a tacky bitch who loves drama. Knife her later.
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Dec 9, 2022 19:19
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Halloween Jack posted:Those approval ratings are ridiculously high. Serious question: who is her base of support, and who among them isn't holding their nose and voting not-a-Republican? The problem is that McCain's independent streak was as much marketing as it was reality. It's not the 90s anymore, Arizona isn't the Barry Goldwater state these days, and Sinema doesn't have decades of incumbency to prop her up. So, really, she doesn't have a base at all.
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Dec 9, 2022 19:20
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Jarmak posted:Can someone please explain to me the Leftist ideological underpinnings of saying a young, black, gay women doesn't deserve any sympathy for being locked in labor camp for a decade over some bullshit weed charges? She's the epitome of a disadvantaged background; a gay black women from a 95%+ minority, 70%+ economically disadvantaged high school. She has managed to acquire wealth principally on the value of her own labor; she doesn't own the any means of production that she's taking the value of other's labor from, she's not part of management, she's a worker. Apparently she has money and is therefore the enemy. At least that is the vibe I got.
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Dec 9, 2022 19:20
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